News Article

Pachter: Wii U Will Sell Between 30 to 50 Million Units During Its Lifetime

Posted by Damien McFerran

Will "Probably" Be Nintendo's Final Home Console

Industry analyst Michael Pachter has been speaking at the ongoing SXSW Interactive 2013 festival in Austin, and has delivered some dismal predictions for Nintendo's Wii U console.

During his presentation, Pachter addressed the future of home consoles, and gave some proposed figures for the big three. The Wii U would sell "30-50 million units" — much lower than the 99 million Wii consoles sold to date — and was branded as "underwhelming", "essentially a DS split into two parts" and "not innovative enough to drive huge interest". However, he did add that new titles could give the system's sales a boost.

Pachter's presentation — delivered on behalf of his company, Wedbush — was more positive about the Sony PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's as-yet-unannounced "Durango". Sales projections for both systems are between 85-95 million units.


From the web

User Comments (236)



Jese_1 said:

The actual PS4 console has yet to be seen, and Durango hasn't even been officially announced, so based on what evidence can he confidently say that they will outsell the Wii U?

This constant barrage of pessimism drives me crazy.



Devil_Surivior said:

Ok, Let's assume that the scenario he lays out is correct; why the love would Nintendo not making another console after a making profit off the Wii U? See this is why Patcher is a mega jerk, he says something halfway plausible and they ruins it by saying something right after that is utterly devoid of fact and history.



DreamyViridi said:

Well, that second slide is right about one thing; new titles will indeed improve sales. Obviously the same can be said for all consoles.
Otherwise, he's most likely going to be proven wrong, as usual.



Farmboy74 said:

My predictions:
Pachter to keep predicting console sales and Nintendo is doomed!!!
All three consoles not to sell as well as previous generation due to economy and lack of money!!
Not as many people to own two consoles due to the above comment!!
Wii U sales to improve on release of new 3D Mario / Zelda game!!
F-Zero to return!!
People getting angry at more predictions from anyalists!!
Blimey with all these predictions is there any a chance off me getting a job as a business anyalist??



SanderEvers said:


Really, laughing my socks off here.
Why do you (Nintendolife) insist in posting garbage like this every time?

30-50 million consoles is actually more than GameCubes ever sold. Wikipedia. And they came back with one of the best consoles ever (Wii). The PS4 won't have Backward Compatibility, so many gamers will keep their PS3 for those games. They won't buy a PS4 until all of those games are replaced by sequels. The PS4 will be between $500 - $800. Roughly twice the price of a Wii U. And will sell like 10 million in the first 4 years.

Same goes for the next XBOX



Jamouse said:

Patcher can make an entire forum board mad without even addressing them.

Now that is skill.



Silvervisiona said:

That projection sounds really healthy for Nintendo, considering how the Wii sales were through the roof. It will be an excellent console with good first party support, which is what matters. That will satisfy Nintendo and the fans.



cornishlee said:

of Wii U:
"gamepad plus TV not innovative"

of PS4:
"huge RAM will drive innovation"

I'll go get my dictionary. I understood that word differently...



Placlu said:

Going to bring this up, again... but didn't we just find out that nintendo can not do anything for like 20 years and still have money? Yearp sure, the WiiU is clearly killing nintendo. Same with the 3DS at launch, yea, that killed nintendo.

Also didn't Patcher say the same thing about the Wii? Waggle? Wtf is that. Move? BRILLIANT 10 POINTS TO SLYTHERIN!

Calling the Wii U a "ds essentially split in two parts" just makes you look like an idiot, you cant possibly downvote nintendo on doing this when your holy savour Sony is doing the same thing with the Vita & whatever that smartglass thing that Microsoft is doing.

My Prediction: Patcher to continue to point out flaws in Nintendo while praising Sony/MS for generations to come.



SanderEvers said:

@cornishlee So true, my PC has more RAM than a PS4 will have. But my PC isn't more innovative than it was 10 years ago when it had less ram than the Wii U.



Dambuster said:

The bloke is a knob, but i think he is sort of right. I don't think Nintendo will make another traditional home console, But I do think that the next Nintendo handheld will be a powerful beast, which will be able to connect to a t.v to continue play when your at home.



SaKo said:

I think he doesn't know the difference between prediction and opinion/favoritism...



Kohaku said:

Why are websites still quoting this man who is an attention whore and who allready expected GTA V over a year ago in the stores?
How can he say now already how many PS4's will be sold when we don't know the prices.
Websites should ignore this man.



AddDavey said:

Patcher almost always gets his predictions wrong and he always changes his mind, I remember before the Wii U launched he said that it would fail one week then the next he said it would be super successful.

I reckon that Sony and Nintendo will be really successful this gen and the Microsoft will only sell a couple of million consoles to the die-hard Halo and Forza fans.



Kohaku said:


that's why MS is talking about the next generation which wil be here around 2020 when we all have at least 4G what outsides Europe already is going to 250 MB/s.



SanderEvers said:

Sure 4G will help, but mobile service providers put insane data limitations on it. (Like 200MB-1GB per month) Well, at least here in the Netherlands.



seronja said:

no way in hell the ps4 or xbox "durango" will even come close to 85 million sales, the gaming market is not that big for 1 console, and about the wii u it will probably sell less then 60 million but that's not a bad thing since it's nintendo's own fault to lack a generation behind for the second time, but the profits are still huge IMO.



luminalace said:

Personally I don't see the Xbox 360 doing better than the last especially if Sony release around the same time and is more powerful. I also do not believe this will be Nintendo's last console.




I just dont get why so many people want nintendo to fail.

or at least thats how it seems, do these fools not realise that if nintendo goes the industry will just rot to nothing.



Roynerer said:

@SanderEvers The PS4 DOES have backwards compatibility, just not in the conventional way you'd think. Their new, ultra-fast streaming feature for cloud gaming and such will provide EVERY game in the PlayStation catalog from the very beginning of the PS. PSone, PS2 and PS3 titles will ALL be playable via the cloud and I presume if you already own the games on disc, then all you'll have to do is put the disc in the PS4 console and have the network verify that you own the game and voila, playing on the cloud.
I'm a Nintendo supporter, so I'm not trying to rule out Wii U here as I believe is has marvelous potential and I'll always stick by the big N, but I'm also a supporter of Sony and it's current direction to make the PS4 about games and no funny business, the whole fact that they're providing EVERY PS game ever to play via cloud is fantastic all on it's own.
The price has also been rumored many times to be between £300-400 here in the UK (the Wii U is £250-320, depending on model and bundle)
Sony won't kick themselves in the shin again with a ridiculous price, it's just obvious.



kissoon said:

Christ, this guy again? As long as the Wii U is profitable and has great games, who really gives a ****?



SCAR said:

I would say switch the figures of the PS4 and Xbox with Wii U, making it 100 million Wii Us, and 50 million of each of the other consoles. Or 80 million Xbox and PS4 console and 120 Wii Us.
The consoles are getting too powerful to last just 6-9 years anymore, and Nintendo is already saying by releasing the Wii U that they're ready to go all out with a new console in a gen that will probably last how long Xbox 360 will, which hasn't come to an end yet.
I think we are forgetting that improvements can be made programming wise to get Wii U to do alot more than we are seeing now. HTML5, Java, and other programs for content to run can still be developed to run higher quality software than the actual hardware will allow using compression in some cases.
Why do you think Windows XP and Windows 2000 stayed around for so long?

I expect Wii U to sell more than the other consoles, plus peripheral sales and possible optional hardware that could exterminate the issues some might have, while Xbox and PS4 sell around the same amount. I figure they will all make around the same amount of money overall as companies, taking in account all the other markets they are present in. The Wii U is cheaper and there's alot they can do besides the hardware to get things to run. There is alot of ways to improve the Wii U for more than what it is now. It just takes alot of time, and only a handful of developers have even had the chance to try the new dev kits for the next PS4 and Xbox.



grenworthshero said:

Really? He's predicting Sony and Microsoft to sell 85-95 million units when we know next to NOTHING about their consoles, but the WiiU, which has already done well at launch, even with VERY few exclusives, is going to fail. Yeah, okay...



Magikarp3 said:

Here's what you're missing - "at current sales rate". Even Pachter agrees that innovative games will save the WiiU, and said innovative games are coming. This prediction is comparing the WiiU's reality to Sony and Microsoft's promises, which is naturally going to tip it away from the WiiU's favour.

Predictions work by extending current trends assuming that everything runs the same way in a year, in two years, in five years. Nothing Pachter said is wrong, technically, but it's entirely possible that he'll be proven wrong. From the tone of the slides, I'd even hazard a guess that he's welcome to being proven wrong.



fishwilson said:

I don't think this console generation will be the last at all, the question is more about if there are room for three similar devices in the marked in the future. I do not really see the need for the ps4 and the 720 and if Nintendo should also try to compete there would be three almost identical devices out there, that would just be too much I think. Just look at the ps3/360, I have both and besides a handful of exclusives they are more or less providing the exact same experience to me, its actually pretty stupid. And then you have the android based game/media center consoles coming out this year (Ouya). I think its time for Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo to merge, and just make one super console, that way game devs don't have to split their teams and cost porting games everywhere. Yes I know monopoly can be a bad thing, but this time it will be good.
Imagine the possibilities.



Wiidsguy said:

Why. Just answer me why this would be. Dose nintendo just not like money. I don't get it.



Einherjar said:

So, the PS4 is impressive because of its huge RAM and the bigger CPU and the RAM is where the innovation comes from ? Im sorry to say it like that but...more RAM and CPU power doesnt make grey/brown corridor shooters less mediocre. The actual games should be the part where the innovation comes from. And i fail to see that from the footage shown. If you dont change the way HOW its played, its very likely that the type of games wont evolve even if you have astronomical hardware specs.
Imo, nintendo went the right way. They changed HOW you could play a game on familliar technical terrain.



SCAR said:

I think the same difference that was around last gen is still relevant, where there are 2 'superpowered' consoles and one 'standard' console.
They are kind of already merged in a way by being able to all play the same games in one form or another. I would say a good comparison of what to expect this generation is Geometry Wars for Xbox 360 vs. Wii Geometry Wars: Galaxies for example.
That is a basically identical game that perfectly references how those 2 companies compare in a way. Geometry Wars never made it to PS3.
I think Kinect 2.0 or whatever will be included also, that would be the smart thing to do on all fronts, especially since they don't have to add it halfway through the gen like they did last time, but I think Nintendo will be the one adding hardware enhancers this gen, once the other companies show what their console can do and add it when and where they see fit.

Let's not forget that Internet explorer showed up on Xbox 360 around 4 months ago. That shows where their priority was at.



Zombie_Barioth said:

@Roynerer Except thats not really backwards compatibility. you can't just pop YOUR disk into the machine and play, you have to hope that SONY actually makes it available via GaiKai.

I really don't see consoles disappearing, but I think the way we define them will. In the future "console" will just be a fancy term for a proprietary media hub/set-top box. If the rumors about the "720" are true then MS are already headed in that direction.

More power can definitely spur innovation theres no doubt about that, but it doesn't matter if you have the strongest machine around if all you use it for is solitaire and facebook.



WaveGhoul said:

He slams the Wii U for not being innovative enough? Did he not watch the PS4 unvieling, if that's not underhelming than i don't know what is. And in the end, even if the Wii u does poorly Nintendo has billions to last them decades in the industry. Their last console? What a load of Krang poop.



TheAdza said:

Does he even think before making comments like these? Whether or not the Wii U succeeds, saying that it isn't innovative with its extra screen, but then go on to say that the PS4 with extra ram is innovative? Erm what?

Both Xbox360 and PS3 are sitting at around 70 million units sold worldwide, and are quite successful doing those numbers, how can he think that the next ones are going to be selling close to a million units each when they can't pull it off this gen, because we have smartphone and tablet gaming already intruding where they never used to when the 360 and PS3 were released, we have ouya and the Steambox coming to further eat away at market share of the traditional home console, and PC gaming is on the rise and getting stronger every day. I can see either the PS4 or 720 going big numbers, but I really can't see both of them being even more successful than their successors.

Also I think the WiiU will remain very profitable for Nintendo if they manage to sell 50 million consoles. I dare say some of the Wii owners that only bought one casually for Wii Sports and Wii Fit won't be back to play this time, but the core Nintendo fans should see them through to some big numbers eventually. It won't have the numbers to support the big AAA games of next gen that will need to sell 5 million or more copies to break even, but games for it won't have to be bank breaking to create.

I'm no fan of this Pachter at all. I don't see how his bias and blatant fanboyism to the latest and greatest tech despite what history has to say can be taken seriously.



DreamOn said:

I don't see a problem with the Wii U having similarities to the DS why is that negative? I say it's about time that concept moved to consoles.

30-50M? Probably.

Graphical output is too much like current HD gen? Again is that bad? I don't think so. That's not a stand alone factor for lifetime sales, see Wii and 3DS.

Last home console? As we know it, it could be. Nintendo thrives on change and new trends.

Innovation of gamepad vs grandpa Dual Shock with a touch strip now taped on his head... I'm gonna say the gamepad is just a tad more innovative here.

And yes, exciting games are coming and will sell.

As to competitor sales etc, who knows? If this guy says 90M a piece, go for it, all your investment monies down now, that's as nice a prediction as it gets. But in todays economy that's a problem isn't it?



Peach64 said:

I don't really care what this guy has to say at all, but fed up of people saying you can't make predictions about the PS4/Nextbox because we haven't seen them/not announced.

We haven't seen the plastic casing for the PS4, but the specs are 100% confirmed, and they're what every news site was reporting for the last 12 months, with extra ram. The same sites are reporting Nextbox specs and they're going to be right again. There's thousands of dev kits out there for these consoles, they're not some secret that nobody knows about yet.

And he predicts this gen will be the last for everyone, he's not saying Wii U is doomed and so is Nintendo. The same thing happens with every news article. People just read everything as 'waaaaah they're slating the Wii U and saying Nintendo is doomed' when they NEVER are. EA said the Sony and MS consoles are significantly more powerful. They are. They're not dissing the Wii U but 75% of the comments claim they are. Ubisoft say early Wii U sales are disappointing. Again, they are. The January Wii U numbers are the lowest for any consoles since the Saturn. They're not saying things won't pick up once the games come, but again people cry that Ubisoft is hating on the Wii U. GROW UP!



Mk_II said:

Just remember folks, Pachter also said the DS wasn't innovative enough and would flop.



Guybrush20X6 said:

Why do you keep posting his stuff? What are his qualifications anyway? Did he just scribble "analyst" onto his business card?



FullbringIchigo said:

why does anyone still take notice of this prat about 90% of what he say's is bull crap and never comes true and the other 10% he's never fully right on either, he may guess a few things right once in a blue moon but so could my mum and that doesn't make her an expert analyst



Tsuchiya said:

This isn't news, it's ****.
It's just a strange man spouting nonsense with you know, no facts or proof to back up his rant.
This crap is the type you'd find on a thread spat out by a brainless fanboy.

WiiU is a DS split in two?! The man is a total ***!

No news here.



Chrno-x said:

Yeasterday I watched new Pach-Attack where he said that Nintendo isn't making so much profit on selling Wii U and 3DS and that's the reason they shouldn't be making new hardware systems. Hmmm that's weird because Sony and MS wasn't making any profit at all with PS3 and X360 for about 3/4 years and they should keep going? 1 year had passed after the Vita launch, and Sony is still at loss and they aren't making any profit of it, but it looks like they should make another portable system. Sometimes I don't get it. History showed us that every platform that were successfull was outperformed by the rivals machines, because "It's all about the games". But mr. Pachter is still saying that the more powerful devies will sell better, who cares about games? it looks like we aren't gonna need them ;]



Denkou said:

I was almost ready to believe what patcher said.... until he used "playstation" and "innovation" in the same sentence.



taffy said:

One thing he failed to mention in the LTD sales of the 360 and the PS3 is the RROD and YLOD issues. I would imagine a few million of those would be in relation to those issues.

Patcher also has a history of getting things wrong. Even at the VGA's he said that none of the download only games would win GOTY and then The Walking Dead gets it. He also said that Wii Fit would be a flop so I really wouldn't worry about what he predicts.



Spoony_Tech said:

I don't actually disagree much with his predictions for nintendo as far as console sales go. I'm thinking more of 60 million. I just greatly disagree with the other two predictions of ps4- Durango. no way are they hitting that total.



yobucky said:

With all the crap predictions he's made how is he even still considered worth listening too? Is it like the same story as with a bad professional coach. He can stuff up a team, get laid off but still find more work easily because he has "experience"? Once he's been proven wrong with these statements he really should just fall on his sword. I mean the "durango" hasn't even been revealed yet, for all we know it could suck. And I mean to expect this generation to not only sell more than the last AND be the last generation, surely that is incompatible?? If the PS4 sells 90 million, no company in their right mind would call it quits and say "No more consoles"?? So yeah there's enough semi-logic to make it seem plausible but then inconsistencies that really make me wonder why he is even given any platform to speak on at all. I am sure the Wii U might well only sell 60 million in this market, but if they are turning a profit on that then so what? The other 2 are going to have to either make a loss or be too expensive, profitability and sales are not going to mix well with a system that costs so much to make in the first place.



AugustusOxy said:

Pactor has no idea what he is talking about. He predicted the PS3 would outsell all consoles, that the 3DS would be a console everyone would want and would easily pay 600 dollars for.

No one remembers how he is wrong 80 percent of the time. Remember when he said apple would make a console?

Above all; when the ps4 and the durango come out, and all the japanese companies can no longer afford to develop for such over-compensating consoles; they are going to fall on the wii-u. Its just a fact.

And in this day in age, in which the Wii is still outselling just about every other console, how can anyway say stupid crap like this? The PS3, as horrible as its done, hasn't stopped sony. They are still reeling from the PS2's success. Nintendo dominated last generation with the Wii and the DS (Which might I remind people is the BEST SELLING CONSOLE OF ALL TIME, the DS outsold EVERYTHING ever).

People just want nintendo to go under, they are so enticed by shiny new graphics that all they can think of is how much they want Zelda on the PS4.



spe777 said:

This is the same "expert" who said that Sony and Microsoft would never develop new consoles. He also said that WOW would die out in 2005, and that the PS3 would be the most successful of the generation.



Haywired said:

I think he means "not innovative enough" in the sense that Nintendo is shouting about and banking on the appeal of the console's "innovation" above all else. Whereas a console that's focused on other things doesn't need to have its innovation called out as much, because it's not relying on it so heavily. I think he's not saying "it's not as innovative as other consoles", more "it's not as innovative as Nintendo thinks it is." Which I would somewhat agree with actually. From what I can see around me the innovation of "Map on the screen" isn't making the general public salivate with excitement.



McHaggis said:

Pachter is the anti-fanboy. Instead of being blinded by love of a particular console, he's blinded by hate. I mean, it must be obvious by now that he really has something against Nintendo. Still, it's always a good laugh reading the aftermath of things he says.



Prof_Clayton said:

I can't believe I never realized it, but this must be the work of @LordJumpMad. Who else could create this much madness?
Oh well, I guess all Pachter really does is seperate the fan boys from the men.



Omarsonic9 said:

That guy is so dumb.
The PS4 isn't even released yet.
I hate Patcher... He should get patched.



Collinhall said:

50 million doesn't sound so bad - I don't think the Wii U will replicate the Wii's success though. I hope I'm wrong.

But hey, even the low end of Pachter's prediction is still better than the GC sold haha



Nintenjoe64 said:

I wonder if Sony and MS fans worry when Pachter makes positive predictions about their consoles. I knew the Wii U was in for a rough launch when he said he thought it would sell 11 million units in year one.

Oh well, I guess it's too much to ask for people to stop publishing Pachter. People eventually ignored Jack Thompson though so I do hold some hope.



Damagemanual said:

Please stop giving Pachter the time of day. To say his predictions are anything by blind guesses is giving him way too much credit.



Wii_Win said:

Errr... No. Pachter obviously doesn't know about the flood of new games coming this year. Lego City, (Meh.) One or the other of new Mario or Kart, (YAY) and possibly smash. (Very exciting)

And didn't Pachter say the 3DS would be a failure a while ago? XD



Beta said:

OMG XD I was just telling a friend about this and told him about how this guy has a magical crystal ball, perfect pic! X'D
Anyway, yeah, we will see. I can't wait for next gen to tell you "IN YOUR UGLY FACE!" Can't this guy just go away already?



SethNintendo said:

One thing almost all gamers of different affiliations can agree on....

Pachter sucks

I'd rather hear from Jack Thompson than this so called analyst again. This is the last Pachter article that I will ever comment on. Wish gaming sites would ignore this idiot.



Peach64 said:

@AugustusOxy Um... Wii still outselling everything? Nobody has been buying Wiis for 2 years. It was one of the shortest lifespans of any consoles. 360 and PS3 have sold around 3/4s of what it sold, but the difference is, people are still buying games for those 2, while they're not for the Wii. Nintendo did what it wanted, and captured non-gamers. The problem is, they're non-gamers, and they're happy playing their Wii Fit and EA Active stuff, they don't automatically move onto the next console like gamers do. IOS and Android have captured a lot of the Wii casuals, so that trend is going to affect Wii U numbers more than the other two.



SethNintendo said:

@peach64 You want to know what a short lifespan is? Try the Virtual Boy or Ngage. Keep talking about tablets and smartphones because you sound just like Pachter.

How many sales did the 3DS lose due to smartphones and tablets? Can't be too many considering the 3DS is pretty much keeping the same pace as the DS which was the most successful hand held ever.

MH4, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, etc.... will make this a good year for 3DS (the year of the 3DS).

You write the "casuals" off for the Wii U before Wii Fit U, Wii Sports U, Mario Kart, etc are released. If those flop and fail to move systems then I might listen to you.



Shining-Void said:

Thoes numbers are obviously biased. I can't see any of the consoles getting that many sales. Remind me again why he hasn't been fired yet.



DreaddJester said:

Once again, we have idiots who only bother to look in their own back yard for world wide issues. My prediction is that Sony will be out of the console business long before Nintendo will. I make this prediction based on the fact that Nintendo is boss in the handheld department and king of consoles in Japan which will help them survive though the console wars. This leaves Microsoft and Sony to duke it out and I think that Sony often overreaches and produces systems that might include everything anyone could want but that are way out of most peoples price range in the current economic situation of the world.

I thought it funny that they put a launch price for the PS4 at <$599.00 at launch. Ok, so the price will be $598.00. Who's got $600.00+ after taxes to throw to a system? Sony is catering to the rich gamer, and there are only so many rich folks in the world. Also, how can you make sales predictions on systems that A. we don't have full details on, and B. haven't even been announced? Keep in mind that folks just like him are the exact same types of folks that said way back in the day that the original PS1 wouldn't survive because nobody wanted their games on disk....... Yeah, these kind of predictions are a waste of peoples time.



Molotov said:

They Came Back With One Of The BEST Consoles Ever????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah. The Amount Of Consoles (Nintendo Or Not) That Outshine The Wii Is Mindboggling.



V8_Ninja said:

I love how Pachter is trying to predict innovation as if its a scientific equation.



DemonicNinja said:

Well I bought a wii u on launch day but I have only two games for it,it needs killer games,where is mario kart,the wii version came out in 2008,I can't believe that they have been working on a new one since,I would assume that they have,what about a new metroid?,a new f zero,I love my wii u but am still playing my old wii games..



bizcuthammer said:

No way ps4 and durango both sell 90mil. Probably more like 65mil or so, and i predict 50 mil for wii u. We've seen the last of consoles selling 90mil units due to both economy, high pricing of hd consoles, and the rise of mobile and indie games offering cheaper alternatives for the casual market. I dont think this is the last gen for consoles (and nintendo has more than enough cash in the bank to stay in business til 2045)... But i do think the current business models of all three parties need to be reevaluated. The current development costs make it impossible for devs to take chances and be creative with new IPs. One failure on an original idea can lead to huge financial losses for small to midrange devs. So what do we get? Mindless annual sequels and clone after clone of the successful franchises. I mean, look at Sega! They took all kinds of innovative chances, and what happened to them? They're out of the console market, reduced to churning out the same 3 franchises over and over for fear of losing money on a more innovative AAA title. Its really sad.



gavn64 said:

"graphics are phenomenal and HUGE RAM!!! makes innovation likely" hahaha hahaha hahaha hahaha hahaha hahaha hahaha hahaha what an ignoramus this patcher man really is.



allav866 said:

NintendoLife, at this point anything Pachter says is not news anymore. He's just a trolling pessimist with nothing better to do than say something that will stir up controversy. He's not to be taken seriously anymore.



SheldonRandoms said:


How does this guy make predictions like this, the PS4 hasn't been released yet and the "Xbox 720" is nowhere to be seen, once more games are released on the Wii U (which there are games coming) then the system will then end up like the 3DS right now.



LztheQuack said:

Well here's a question for y'all. If you don't want to give Pachter attention, why do you keep commenting on posts from his views? That's caring about what he says



hamispink said:

I tend to agree with him on his predictions for Wii U sales. I see it as being similar to the N64, No third party support but quality Nintendo titles will keep it chugging along. I don't think that the Wii U is the console that the market wants. However I don't think that the Wii U will be Nintendo's last home console (though I do hope it is as I'd love to see them become a 3rd party publisher). There would have to be a major upheaval in the console market (which some are predicting), but I think that there will still be a demand for home consoles for years to come.

While some people look on this generation as being less popular than in the past, the overall sales of the big three consoles are a huge jump over the last generation(though the consoles have overstayed their welcome).



HandheldGuru97 said:

Nothing new I see. Oh and there is no way the PS4 and 720 will sell that much. More like 45-60 million, Wii U could sell up to about 60-75 million and by the way Nintendo could afford another Gamecube. Wouldn't be a good thing, but they could make up for it.



sonicfan1373 said:

Patcher's analysis is moronic and here are a few reasons why:
Firstly, he got the PS4's graphical and CPU power all wrong. The PS4 is running on a 8 core Jaguar processor @ between 1.6 GHZ - 2.2 GHZ with 4 FPUs (which means that these are more like 4 cores with 4 additional integer calculating cores), AMD has said that the Jaguar will be featured on their cheap low-end APUs for low-end compact desktops or for laptops. Furthermore, AMDs current high-end "8" core processors are being beaten by both Intel's high-end Core i7 and even the mid-range Core i5 (you can search up the benchmarks on Google), so I doubt the low-end version of these series is going to be powerful at all. Furthermore, Sony said that the combination of the PS4's GPGPU with the CPU will achieve around 2.5 Teraflops of power (the graphics card will achieve around 1.84 teraflops), you can get a PC graphics card for around $250-$300 which will offer 2.5 Teraflops alone in graphical processing capabilities (not even counting the CPU). Patcher clearly does not understand hardware and he is just basing his opinion on what he is being told by Sony's marketing team (who are lying by the way, because you can make a PC system more powerful than the PS4 for $450, and the PS4 is using PC parts anyways; so this console is not the powerhouse that the PS3 was at launch). The Wii U is less powerful than PS4, but not to the same degree as Wii and PS3. Furthermore, because Nintendo creates its own graphics API, it can ensure that all of the Wii U's graphical features are made use (which means the tessellation units and compute shader capabilities of the Wii U's R770 graphics card can be used, which means the Wii U's GPU is almost on par with the PS4 in terms of features, the PS4's GPU is only a bit faster). I am not condemning the PS4 for not having powerful hardware (I personally believe that lower power consumption, unique gameplay, and higher system reliability is more important for consoles) but I am condemning both Sony and Patcher for making the system more than it actually is.

Secondly, Patcher is anticipating that the unannounced next-gen Xbox is going to outsell the Wii U and sell on par with the PS4. When we do not know the console, Microsoft's strategy, games, price, or anything else for that matter.

Thirdly, he is predicting that companies will sell 30 million - 95 million units and then exit the video game hardware market. This is a moronic sentiment, because why would you exit out of a market after such high sales.

Fourthly, Patcher seems to be avoiding the point that last-gen Wii games sold the highest by a high margin when compared to previous generations, which means that there are people who will potentially upgrade systems when their favourite franchises from the Wii era arrives on the Wii U. He is also dismissing the fact that by the time PS4 and the next-gen Xbox arrive the Wii U will probably be priced lower then it is now, which will make it a big hit for christmas shoppers on a budget (the Wii U already sold more than 3 million units this Christmas, and it outdid the preceding generation (excluding the Wii) during its launch christmas, and it will have more games and perhaps more bundles.

Lastly, Patcher said that Wii would fail and Nintendo would not be able to compete in the 7th generation (it did not happen, Wii has now sold 99 million units), he said that MS Kinect would fail (it did not happen, Microsoft has sold more than 25 million Kinect sensors), he predicted 3DS would fail (did not happen, it is now the fastest selling system in Australia and Japan and has sold close 30 million units in its first 2 years and it has consistently dominated the hardware charts (always in first place in Japan, and second-first place everywhere else), he predicted that PS Vita would outsell the 3DS upon launch because of more multimedia features and better graphics (does this look familiar to the chart above, also it did not happen). Based on his wrong and narrow minded predictions in the past (in fact I cannot think of any correct predications off the top of my head), I can say that I will not put much stock in his most recent predictions. I know that Patcher is an analyst, but I do not think he is good analyst; based on his statements he has a clear bias against Nintendo and he does not look at all aspects of the consoles; moreover, he makes high sales predictions on consoles that have not even been revealed yet.



Gold_Ranger said:

This isn't news.
The PS4 has absolutely NO backwards compatibility.
The PS4 has NO innovation.
More R.A.M. is NOT an Innovation, it's an UPGRADE!
I only just got a XboX 360. I wanted to play Resident 5, 6, Skyrim and Grand Theft Auto 4 & 5.
I highly doubt I'll get the NeXtboX.
I know I'm NOT getting a PS4.

They are also complaining about the NeXtboX being more of a Multi-Media Hub than the XboX 360, but that is exactly what the PS4 is doing.
Double Standards much???



NintyMan said:

He was awfully positive about Microsoft's new console despite so little being known about it and he lavishes praise on the PS4 while dismissing the Wii U. I sense a strong bias here, as usual for the ringleader of the "Nintendo is doomed" circus.

Pachter has been wrong time-and-time again. All he's good at is getting attention.



Dpullam said:

These types of articles always seem to stir up trouble and ignite console wars. Oh well. I personally see the Wii U having the same future as N64. Quite a few classic titles but not as many system sales as Nintendo would like. Hopefully I'm wrong though. Perhaps the Wii U will get a huge sales bump like the 3DS did. Regardless I am holding out on choosing my next console until E3 this year.



C-Olimar said:

He actually expects PS4 and Nextbox to sell around 170million combined. I just can't even express how ridiculous that is. His Wii U figure is more realistic, but the suggestion that Ninty will stop making home consoles in plain idiocy.

Oh and please guys, PLEASE don't give @Molotov the satisfaction of drawing replies from you.



LztheQuack said:

I will admit that his prediction on the PS4 and Xbox wutever is quite optimistic considering there's no price point yet for either (and heck NOTHING on the nextBox). I doubt the PS4 will sell for less than $500 and the question is will the market want another set of expensive consoles?



OdnetninAges said:

What I find so ironic about this is that he says this at an event who's MAIN sponsor is Nintendo this year.

Like, wow.

(BTW, I've been having fun at the expo so far. Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101 and Luigi's Mansion 2 are AWESOME.)



hYdeks said:

People really need to stop listening to this moron People have been saying Nintendo will die since the N64 days, and here we are, several years later, still playing Nintendo I honestly don't see those sale figures being anywhere close to right, I think the Wii U will sell better than that, it just needs to show the games at E3 this year. As for the PS4, it's definititly not new or inventive, so he can't judge the Wii U. I think PS4 and Wii U will do great, but xbox 720 will be a huge flop.

We need to stop giving idiots like this a voice, AND listening to them as well



SparkOfSpirit said:

According to him a $599 US dollar PS4 will be a success?

Does he have no memory or something? People didn't go for the Vita "bargain" price, either.



C7_ said:

Pachter's a troll who gets paid to predict the future of the industry and is consistently wrong. He has no basis for any of this rather than his own proven dislike of Nintendo, and he cannot possibly know how well the PS4 will do seeing as its price and launch line-up will be what propels it to success. How can he say with certainty the sales figures for two consoles we know almost nothing about?

The fact that he's even pretending to know anything about the Durango is nothing but a joke, and you can see his bias when he compares the WiiU to an oversized DS. It's not, the only similarity is that there's two screens, which he would know if he even played the thing himself. I know this is considered news, but it's really just one massive troll's opinion that's given credit by news sites and his parent company. Anyone else with a track record like his would've been fired years ago.



Haxonberik said:

Please, to all video game websites, stop quoting Patcher, the guy is an idiot and says either obvious, mixed stuff to make it seem like an analisys or just speaks random poop.



LztheQuack said:

@C7_ Yup. He hated Nintendo so much that he actually thought the 3DS was gonna be a runaway success. But alas, he was wrong about that



TheKingOfTown said:

So selling 30 to 50 million consoles will make Nintendo drop out of the console race? After the N64 and the GCN, I doubt that will happen.



BabyLogey said:

Let's see, when SEGA, TurboGrafix, and Nintendo were the competing console makers, TurboGrafix died soonest, SEGA died last, but our hero gaming company Nintendo survived. Sony's PS systems are gonna die probably, Microsoft's Xbox systems might not make it.. The way I see this is that video games are going through another console war, and I bet anything Nintendo's gonna survive.



SethNintendo said:

Is the event free? I live in Austin and some street pass tags would be nice. Guess I'll look it up.

edit - I'm going. If I see Pachter there I'll be sure to tell him that he sucks.



hamispink said:

To those complaining about the innovation remark, it's important to note that he doesn't say that the RAM is innovative, but that innovation is likely to come from it. He means that developers won't be restrained by the hardware (in theory) so they can develop their vision without being held back.

Now will developers be able to take advantage of this in a world where most publishers are scared to try much of anything new, probably not.



Luffy said:

I guess he doesn't know much about systems. Look at the Vita, powerful systems don't mean its good.

Oh and new games could boost sales for the wii U? OBVIOUSLY! This just in Water is clear!



Luffy said:

If this is nintendos last system highly doubt it then its my last system too.

My computer is 4x as powerful as ps4 right now. hehe so I don't consoles I play on my pc. but I can't play Mario/Zelda on my pc...



SuperMinusWorld said:

This guy should do stand-up. As if it hasn't been made clear enough already that he's trying to make it seem like Nintendo is doomed so that people and investors won't think he's wrong.



Jukilum said:

@fishwilson A Monopoly is never a good thing (and that includes the boardgame.) Aside from no competition creating a lack of innovation, it also allows a company to charge whatever they want for their product because there are no other options to choose from. Not only that, but monopolies are illegal, at least in the US which is one of the largest console markets. Playstation and Xbox merging wouldn't actually be a monopoly though as long as there are other consoles from Nintendo.



SparkOfSpirit said:

@hamispink They can barely make games with sturdy framerates and no screen tearing now never mind actually outputting games in 1080p. More tech won't suddenly make them able to accomplish it.



abINC4L said:

Graphics are phenomenal, therefore the system will obviously do well (where have we heard this before?). LOL, huge RAM will make innovation easier? BS!!!!!! When the 360's RAM was considered huge, what was all that innovation? I still call bull crap when people have the gall to say that all developers need is more power to be creative and innovative when this generation has shown quite possibly the least amount of innovation and creativity overall with gaming, and they had much more power to play with compared to previous generations.



SteveW said:

It's just amazing that people think that selling 30-50 million of anything is bad.



SpaceApe said:

Patcher is a joke. Why people let him keep talking about games is even a bigger joke.



GameLord08 said:

Again, I can't shake the feeling that Pachter's statements have somehow been spun out of context for the elation of the games press.

On the other hand, look at all these comments.



MasterGraveheart said:

Can we stop with Pachter's predictions? It's clear that there's some sort of bias slant against Nintendo. Can I make a motion to never bring him up again? His doom-and-gloom scenario isn't news. It's propaganda. Come on, NintendoLife. You're better than this.



WaveGhoul said:

Why? Look at how much comments it's generating. Ahhh. proffesional predicting, and boy is he lousy at it. How's this? I predict Sega will unleash the Dreamcast 2 in 10 more days with Streets of Rage 5. It has more of a chance happening than any of his ReDUCKulous predictabullsh**. Ok, maybe not....But just imagine.



Jaco said:

Im sure someone said this already as there are tons of comments above me, but why would you stop making consoles if yours sold 85-90 million consoles being that its more than your last generation? Seriously this guy makes no sense. Now on to wiiu, what system , other than wii, has not have a slump after initial launch? Remember when the ps3 launched and there were no sales and there were tons of giveaways because no one was buying?




The next generation competition's console price will be too similar to the Wii U's? That just reminds me: how will Sony monetize the new online features?

Anyway, I'm actually starting to be a bit skeptical about Mr. Patcher to be honest.



alLabouTandroiD said:

A price cut may work wonders for the Wii U. When done right it surely delivers fresh and worthwhile experiences. Hopefully the general public will be more interested in it then.
And while the graphical capabilties of the PS4 are more impressive than the current ones that alone doesn't make me very interested in getting one.



pixelman said:

I think it's really sad that NintendoLife has to resort to inflammatory articles like this to get its page clicks. The site used to be above crap like this.

To everyone else concerned, this guy has his opinion and, whether you agree with it or not (I certainly don't), he doesn't deserve your hateful name-calling.



BrightShadows31 said:

him: a ds split in two? me: well, thats accurate... to me its a wii smashed with a 360 and, dare i say it, an ipad. besides, didn't he say that nintendo was dead at the 3ds launch? oh, and look at that, 3DS and wii u are selling like hotcakes in japan. perhaps not elsewhere in the world, but they are still becoming more and more popular.



SMW said:

The Wii U will likely be Nintendo's last home console. I see the next Nintendo console as a hybrid between handheld and home console. The next step after Wii U.

Also its quite entertaining how some industry analyst receives so much press coverage. Like he can see the future. Nice crystal ball image for this article. It sums up just how I feel about this guy. lol Just pulls stuff out of thin sir expecting people to believe him.



drunkenmaster76 said:

Well i predict that when nintendo finally reveal there new games in all there HD beauty, games that are not available on any other console that Wii U will be nintendo's biggest selling console of all time!



ianmage1 said:

I can't believe he thinks the PS4 or "Durango" is going to sell almost the same number of units as the Wii did. If the PS3 and Xbox360 never came close, why would consoles of this generation have a better chance at doing so? If anything, consoles of this generation should be expected to sell fewer units, given the high prices of consoles and games.
And, basically, anyone who predicts the number of units sold, before the freaking console is even RELEASED, has no common sense.
Does he think the Wii U's sales are going to stay constant? Just wait until the next Zelda, 3D Mario, and SSB (that one especially) are released for Wii U; the sales will increase like crazy. Look at how the 3DS started; it had no good games at the start, but once the first party exclusives came out, it became the best selling console in Japan. I predict the same thing will happen with the Wii U.



JSuede said:

@sonicfan1373 The guys over at NeoGaf have pretty much determined that the Wii U GPU is in no way related to R7XX has no similarities with that line of GPU's even after the customization done by Nintendo. They don't even know what 30% of the silicon does...which is crazy. Just thought you should know....that it's more powerful than you thought



R-L-A-George said:

@SanderEvers XBOX wouldn't even be compatible with used games, so sony and nintendo will have an edge. Sony might be the competitor to Nintendo this time, XBOX is not as much of a competitor as it used to be.



rayword45 said:

If the NeXtBOX actually lacks both used game and backwards compatibility. I will take the 3 steps of laughing my butt off. First, laugh at the stupidity of this decision. Then, laugh at the failure of Microsoft in terms of consoles (they'll never go bankrupt anyways). Lastly, laugh at Pachter's stupid predictions again.

I feel bad for those who invest in what he says, since he said the Vita would stab the 3DS in the throat.



Gamesake said:

Pachter could be right about the PS4 selling 95 million units (shipped not sold), if the next console generation lasts about a hundred years.



HawkeyeWii said:

I don't know about the rest of you guys, but I am sooo sick of this Pachter guy. What a jerk, he always picks on Nintendo so much. Such a hater.
As of right now though, Nintendo really giving much reason for people to buy their systems...



HawkeyeWii said:

Oh and did you guys hear that the next Xbox and PS4 games are supposed to cost $70 each! $70 people! Well better choose which games you are going to buy each year wisely because you will probably only be able to afford 2 or 3 lol



SCAR said:

Lets just say that he flipped a coin hundreds of times for these predictions. Added 1 for Xbox and PS4 when it was heads, then added 1 for Wii U when it was tails and .5 for Xbox and PS4 when it was tails as well.



Pikachupwnage said:

Patcher is an unprofessional moronic asshat. He uses the term fanboys to describe Nintendo fans all the time. His predictions are terrible and short sighted.
He recently called Iwata a terrible CEO which is absurd considering Iwata is the person who brought Nintendos most prosperous era to them(DS and Wii) and he cut his own pay by half, and those of high ups in the company instead and apologized of firing a bunch of little guys when things went downhill(3DS launch woes). Now 3DS is doing great with TONS of support upcoming. Wii U is struggling a bit but anyone can tell it should make a recovery once it gets more games.

Heck back in early 2012 he said Nintendo has no idea what the Internet is....funny Hadn't they had Wi-fi consoles since 2004? Bet he feels like a imbecile now that Wii U has a entire social network and whatnot that will be expanding to smartphones and 3DS.

I don't like the guy. He should keep his trap shut.



NESguy94 said:

Wait, Pachter did a side-by-side comparison of one real item, an announced item and an unannounced item. I'm not sure but you might want to wait for a week of sales before you make predictions like this. The PSP and PSVita were supposed to take over the handheld market because of their power and graphics and they never came close. The PS4 sounds great but its price will probably turn people away. Sony just doesn't have a huge following (in the US at least). Saying the WiiU will sell worse than the next Microsoft console is laughable at this point. We know nothing about this XBOX 720. Finally, Nintendo has SO much money. Even if the WiiU does flop they can keep going. Look at the Virtual Boy. It failed miserably, but Nintendo came back kicking with the N64. The doom and gloom isn't going to work on me.



Haywired said:

I don't like these articles as they inevitably bring out the worst aspects of Nintendo fans.



Slapshot said:

@pixelman Pachter doesn't give a flip whining fanboys; he's an "industry" analyst. He doesn't have a vendetta against Nintendo at all, he just doesn't see the Wii U achieving near the success it needs to keep Nintendo as a viable component in the home console market.

Wii U is being sold at a loss, as well as the 3DS. With the Wii U sales trickling down and the 3DS sales exploding - Nintendo is bleeding a lot of money that it can't subsidize elsewhere - Nintendo is a gaming-only company, just as Thomas stated in his feature today. Not only that, but the tie-in ratio for games in the Wii U is low too, meaning that it's only helping to alleviate the loss taken at the sale of the hardware. Nintendo is staying afloat right now by it's software sales on the 3DS - not the Wii U.

If the Wii U continues to not catch on to the mainstream and doesn't find itself selling a lot of third party titles - where the majority of revenue comes in to every major publisher: licensing and royalty fees from third parties - the Wii U could actually end up not making Nintendo a great profit overall, which could in fact lead to Nintendo exiting the home console market going forward.

It's for this reason that Pachter is stating what he is stating. He's basing his analysis off of these facts, not that he "love some other company." I know that this isn't an industry site, but readers here are ill-informed on the industry aspect of the Nintendo's business and that's why the reaction to his comments is so over-the-top.



Stu_Dee_Jay said:

How on earth can Pachter estimate sales of one console we haven't received finalised specifications of, and one console that hasn't even been revealed yet?



retro_player_22 said:

Pachter is against Nintendo for almost everything they do and hope for them to failed ignoring the fact that Microsoft and Sony also does the same too but then praise them and wish them to succeed. Like c'mon this guy is a Nintendo hater for life, not only that a lot of his predictions are just nonsense fanboyism trolling.



doctor_doak said:

This guy is the Robert Christgau of the gaming industry. Seriously, who is he?? An industry analyst??

I don't have a crystal ball, and I have no idea how many units any of the consoles are going to move (two of them haven't even been 'seen', let alone released), but i'm glad he does. He's basing his assessment of 30-50 million lifetime sale on 'current sales rates'. So he must be assuming that the Wii U will never get a 1st party title. I have no idea how he thinks that basing his overall prediction on the first few months, when there are no real 1st party titles available makes sense.

The next 6-18 months will decide the fate of the Wii U. If Nintendo comes out with mindblowing HD versions of the classics, making good use of the gamepad, and manages to secure more exclusive partnerships like the one with Platinum Games, people will buy it. It needs games...and it needs to make interesting use of the gamepad....but I think that will happen, given time.

I disagree that it's priced too similarly to PS4. You can pick up a Wii U for about $380 USD here in Aus, whereas I would think that the PS4 will launch for around $750 USD going on the pre-order price of $900. So $370 is a fair differnece. It's virtually another Wii U's worth. As for the XBox720, if rumours of an 'always on' internet connection requirement are true, I can see it tanking in a major way. So really at the end of the day, he's basing these bold predictions on very little evidence.

Why did the wii outsell the PS3 and XBox 360 in its lifetime, and the 3DS outsell the Vita when both units are less powerful than the competition?? He says the wii sold 99 million, then points out that he doesn't think Wii U will sell as well because its too close to current gen in specs. huh??



Tony_342 said:

1) In what reality is a videogame console selling 50 million units considered "dismal"? Especially when it's a Nintendo system - a system people buy to play Nintendo games. Nintendo could sell half as many units as the other systems and still make more money from software sales.
2) The Wii U is priced too closely to the launch prices of PS4 and Durango? Exactly how much money are Sony and Microsoft going to be losing on each system they sell? $200?
3) "It's possible exciting new titles will reinvigorate growth"? No, it isn't "possible." It's inevitable. It WILL happen.



SparkOfSpirit said:

The Wii-U has been out for a little over three months.

I just thought the ones agreeing with the man might want to be reminded of that fact.



Gidkilla said:

I agree that this kind of article doesn't really constitute as good editorial work. This guy has always had a bias and if he can't be objective whats the point in hearing his view and it being reported?
a lot of what he's saying could end up being true but we don't need his opinion (and thats all it can be) when the writings so clearly on the wall at the moment. And we don't need Nintendo life fuelling the fire!



MagicEmperor said:

I guess it might be considered news, but sometimes I wonder why this is posted, either. All it will do is provoke Nintendo gamers, period.



AtomicToaster said:

I truly have no stake in the outcome. As long as Nintendo keeps making hardware I'll continue to buy it for their software. If they exit the console making industry I'll buy their software on other consoles. However, I feel like the media is skewed toward these giant monolithic companies that took over the industry years ago and now every time Nintendo releases hardware they're "Doomed", but the other consoles have their own problems! They have to release consoles at a loss in a poopy market at probably around 400 to 500 a pop and publishers are going to be expected to release more expensive games on these consoles to a smaller install base. Many people may not even pick up this console until 2016 onwards and by then we'll probably be hearing about the next Nintendo consoles. If there's anything nintendo does right it's maintaining a 5 year life cycle. This 10 year thing is just crazy with how much the market changes in just two years!

I don't think the world is a better place because Sega doesn't make consoles anymore and Nintendo bowing out would be sad as well! Those companies actually made good CONSOLES not just poopy PC's. That's actually why I really like the Wiiu, it's mostly just a CONSOLE, it's for games. If PS4 is headed the same direction it may be good too, they certainly have the first party content!

In five years graphics for portable devices will be so good we may not even see Nintendo leave hardware but instead combine their portable and home console into being one device somehow. I mean look at the Wiiu! It's almost there! People are taking the thing on train rides! I think that's the direction we'll see nintendo go in personally, but we'll see! Time will tell!



timp29 said:

HAHAHA Pachter is the worlds best troll.

Has he actually ever got anything right?



hYdeks said:

I think it's safe to say this: NintendoLife, stop giving this guy any articles, I come here for the Nintendo news, not some older man who doesn't play video games prediction on video games, he's obviously a moron, be the better people and NOT make another article on this dope.



AtomicToaster said:

I feel that dude is just paid to say Xbox will be successful and Gaming in the West for the win and Nintendo will die! But that's just me! It feels like a lot of these people skew towards the Big Corporate interests like they're giving it a freakin' blowjob and can't see clearly that it has it's own problems and compared to their problems Nintendo's are pretty marginal! lol, Where's talk of Sony's economic struggles? Just silent!



pixelman said:

@Slapshot I think you misunderstood me — I was referring to NL's posting these Pachter articles as inflammatory/embarrassing. I really don't care what Pachter says about Nintendo, one way or the other.



TheRealThanos said:

@Magikarp "Predictions work by extending current trends". Ehm.. no they don't. Unless you live in a bubble and don't take an ever changing market into account. A TRUE analyst can predict what people are GOING to do, not what they've always DONE.
@Haywired The FACT that third parties aren't innovative enough to use the Wii U Game pad for anything other than a map or inventory screen says absolutely NOTHING about the console itself not being innovative. Nintendo is not responsible for the simple minded game add-ons that the third party developers come up with. (although I do think that they should since they must give their approval for a game to be on Wii U)
@Slapshot Although you made some good points on business aspects (I'm an experienced sales&marketing specialist myself) you are totally wrong about Nintendo barely staying afloat and them possibly exiting the console market, making this their last console. First off, they already more or less announced they will be moving on to the next chapter in Nintendo hardware and second and most important, contrary to popular belief Nintendo has more than enough money to survive even several more consecutive failures, provided it will even come to that, which by my educated guess it will more than likely not. And it's also WAY too soon to call the Wii U a failure already. People spelling doom or agreeing with those that do, seem to keep forgetting this little FACT:
And read this, it's on N-Life now:
@CapnPancakes How'd you figure that? The footage looked good and the game play interesting, but beyond that it didn't seem very 'next level'.
@sonicfan1373 Some good points there, and nicely detailed as well.
In general: Funny how people keep calling him 'Patcher' or any other raped spelling of his real name...
Although I applaud more power, since my 5 year old dual core PC is still more powerful than a PS3, I thought that the PS4 show on the 20th was rather underwhelming. There was nothing that made me go 'wow', even though they did show some nice things, there were no awesome graphics and there DEFINITELY was no innovation.
Poor mr. Pachter, with all these false predictions over the last few years it's a wonder he still has a job. when I read @yobokkie's comment somewhere way up in this list mentioning him having to fall on his sword, it made me think that if he was an influential analyst in a Japanese firm, he should have had to do that for real quite some time ago already, if only for the shame and nonsense that he brings to the media.
I'll settle for him being made dead for the media only though, since he's good for nothing more than clicks on web sites...



Neram said:

@hydeks I agree, this guy thrives off of this kind of attention, so the more media reports on him, the more he's going to have to escalate his bullsh*t to keep himself relevant.

I don't even know where to begin with this. It's seriously like he's a 15 year old stuck in an old guy's body. All this looks like is 'professional' trolling. The clear bias against the Wii U and for the next-gen powerhouse systems should be enough to prove that. All their information presented is based on consumer interest being tied to technical specifications and graphics, which in reality it's not. If I may make my own little point here, some facts for you:

Wii sold 99 million units LTD.
-Wii was by far underpowered and the worst graphics of the generation.
-Wii had little to no online connectivity.
-Wii did not play DVD, or Blu-Ray, nor was it HD.

Again, Wii sold 99 million units LTD.
So this guy expects these next generation consoles to sell as good as the Wii; EACH, not combined, but individually? Think about that for a minute, the games spread across both platforms are going to be the same games essentially, so he thinks that console games are going to be so interesting and so good, that combined, these nearly the same consoles will sell a total of almost 200 million units...? Yet this will be the last console generation?

Somebody slap this man.



manic221 said:

Seriously why does anyone listen to Michael Pachter? in all the time i've heard of this moron i've never once seen him get anything right... This is the same guy who said he would eat his hat if The Walking Dead won GOTY the guy hasn't got a clue what he's talking about NintendoLife should stop posting his rubbish and anyone who takes him seriously is beyond saving seriously.



manic221 said:

@Roynerer Nope sorry your wrong you don't have to go far to discover that the PS4 store will not have PS3 games in the cloud it's to do with the architecture of the PS4 which is completely different to that of the PS3 and thus PS4's will be unable to play PS3 games Sony already confirmed this. No PS3 games for backwards compatibilty and they haven't said anything about PS2 and PS1 games so the rest of your comment is absolutely garbage.



renaryuugufan92 said:

interesting proposal patcher but you miss alot.. Nintendo is making profit on the 3DS and i'm sure its surpassed the 30 million mark by now~ the Wii U is approaching 4 million in under 5 months~

i am sure Nintendo will do just fine if they only sold 30-50 million Wii U's but the thing is, big hit games arn't out yet, look at the 3DS once the big games came out, it took off same is going to happen with the Wii U. Also i should note that consoles NEVER sell well during this time of the year~ one year from now we'll probably (keyword: probably not certainly) be hearing these "console market is dead" articles due to the PS4 and 720 having a slow first year...

"might be nintendo's last console" interesting considering the fact that Nintendo's stock just went up not down~ As much as i like sony i will point out that sony is in a much much worse position than Nintendo atm, the Vita (despite having a boost of sales in Japan recently) has had a poor first year, and the PS4's success is going to rely on 2 things, price and games~

all this was i.m.o btw~ we won't know the real end results of the Eighth generation console sales until it ends some 4 to 7 years down the road, happy gaming~ =)



Wintendo said:

I dream of a world where Nintendo, Sony, and Xbox gamers lived happily in peace...



LztheQuack said:

@Pixelman You should see GoNintendo. NintendoLife has only posted a small percentage of his predictions

@Slapshot Why bother? Fanboys will call anyone who "bashes" Nintendo wrong and stupid and any developer that supports them is automatically awesome and amazing!




Why is it that if sombody likes nintendo more than the other companies they get branded a FANBOY.

But it's ok for sony and microsoft fans to come on here and start gettin all crazy and saying that nintendo are doomed and that their rubbish blah, blah oh.....but thats ok.

I'm not a fanboy, I love killzone, resistance, god of war, gears of war.

But I like mario and zelda more



rallydefault said:

Some people will cry, "He's an analyst! He knows things we could never even hope to know!" To that, I nod my head slowly, but I still come up with the following:

IF the Wii U sells EXACTLY as it has been for the past month or two, then yes, Pachter will be correct. However, we all know that isn't going to happen, for better or for worse (hopefully the better!)

Also, I really don't care what kind of company insight this analyst may be privy to, but in most venues learned people are slow to make such grandiose predictions before a product has hit the market. Sports analysts love making predictions, but are humble enough to always acknowledge they could be wrong. Restaurant chains test new ideas in select states before launching nationwide, as there is no reliable way to know how well a product will be received until it is in the hands of the public.

Just my rational two cents.



sinalefa said:

No one will ever fire pachter, since his job does not require him to ever be right.



tripunktoj said:

I'm not surprised to see this guy talking garbage and his biased opinion based on incomplete information and his hate to Nintendo, what surprises me is that people actually listen to a dork who has been proved wrong year after year.



FritzFrapp said:

This guy is paid a very hefty amount of money by Wedbush. I don't see the reason why NeoGAF and then every other site keep giving him exposure, particularly when he is spectacularly wrong so frequently.



hamispink said:

@Spark_Of_Spirit Its been stated that PS4 games will run in 1080p, though I've also seen somewhere that Killzone was running at 30 fps. I think it's fair to say that the PS4 will be able to run games as well as anything else, even a PC. It just comes down to the quality of the development.



hamispink said:

@HawkeyeWii Considering the $70 claim was made by Pachter in this same presentation, tt should be taken with a grain of salt. A Sony executive said that PS4 games will cost $60 dollars, which I hope is true. More so, I hope that their push for downloadable games(and presumably Microsofts as well) will result in Mid-tear games being released for $30-40.



V8_Ninja said:

Looking at the comments again, almost everyone's reaction is ridiculous. Let's just chill, guys; This is (mostly) Michael Pachter being Michael Pachter. If you don't agree with his opinion, then it's best just to post "I disagree, here's some politely-presented reasons why..." and be done with it.



Bankai said:

From experience, PowerPoint slides go up because the person doing the presentation talks around them. IE Pachter would have said an awful lot of stuff that isn't on those slides.

The interesting thing with Pachter is that when he's quoted in context he always makes poignant and relevant comments. When he's quoted out of context...

Was NintendoLife at this event? I would very much like to know what Pachter actually said.



QuickSilver88 said:

This Patcher guy is such a tool and always seems to hate Nintendo. Look Wii was some what of an oddity for Nineptendo in that their previous 2 consoles GC and N64 didnt outsell Sony. Nintendo has pretty much made their living off their handhelds and that isnt going to change.

Also the tool that thinks he is going to get all of Sony's back library for free is crazy. Sony is charging out the ass for psp and ps1 on Vita and for ps2 ans ps1 on ps3. You are not going to get to play ps1/ps2/ps3 for free even if you purchased them previously. Not going to happen!

Nintendo did some nice things giving us Wii backwards compatability for games and controllers and we will soon have Wii-U VC and hopefuly get gamepad play. I think once the good games hit and price drop hits Wii-U will do just fine.

People also are somewhat overestimating the power difference between this generation and next as we are still going to be on 1080p for a long time to come and that will be a limting factor.

I pretty much buy them all handheld and console and already have 3DS, Vita, and Wii-U. I think Microsoft may struggle more than people think because Sony and Nintendo have IPs and Microsoft is lacking....I mean Halo and Froza and Fable compared to all the great stuff Nintendo and Sony consider all the same 3rd party will be on PS4 and many on Wii-U and free online and what will be Microsofts appeal?



Radbot42 said:

I like how he says that the Wii U looks like PS3 and XBOX 360 and will cost as much as the next gen, then guesses the next gen PS3 will cost around 600. Does he even know the price of a Wii U?



dragon_rider said:

@Roynerer Because we all have high speed internet connections that can stream large PS3 games over a network all on a gigabit connection. Oh wait.



XCWarrior said:

@Nintenjoe64 "I predict Pachter will make about another 40-50 million predictions"

To add to that, I predict Pachter will be wrong about another 40-50 million times.



BossBattles said:

Pachter is a poopy person on planet earth. If you can't see that he is paid to hurt the perception of nintendo, then we are not seeing the same thing.

Nobody should ever quote hime again for any reason.



mjhopkins81 said:

Look - I get that everyone on this site is likely a Nintendo fan, and there's nothing wrong with that; but, some (not all, mind you) of what Pachter says is true. It doesn't mean that the Wii U is going to be an abysmal failure, but there are SIGNIFICANT drawbacks to this system that have yet to be resolved. Every new console has these problems at its launch.

Remember when the PS3 only had a handful of games at its launch, and just didn't have enough features to make it worthwhile? Well, now it has the PSN Shop, PSOne and PS2 Classics, PSN games, and a whole host of features that make it a fantastic system.

Remember when XBOX had only a handful of games (mainly named "Halo"), and the vast majority of the games really only appealed to male gamers (Sports, FPS, War Simulation)? Well...that didn't really change, but they did introduce the Kinect, which is a revolutionary peripheral that truly changes the way people interact with their games.

The Wii, itself, just didn't really have a lot of games that appealed to grown ups over the age of thirty, save for a handful of games that were released late in the consoles life cycle, and Virtual Console re-releases. It still revolutionized the gaming industry, and filled a void in the casual gaming market that had been largely untapped.

Now, we have the Wii U, and though the graphics are gorgeous and the promise of better things is there, there just isn't enough for it, right now, that makes it worth purchasing, at this time. Go into a game store or onto the web and there are fewer than fifty titles available for the console, and what's offered in the eShop isn't that much more impressive. But...the potential is undoubtedly there to do something great.

Remember - this is the man who predicted that the 3DS would be an abysmal failure, and the 3DS consistently outsells every other console in the Japanese market, and is arguably the most successful Nintendo product on the market. If they would just start localizing better games in the Western market, it might catch on better, here.

The long and short of it is that people on this site need to take a breath, and take everything this guy says with a grain of salt, and stop being so dramatic.



BetweenTheTrees said:

we have been hearing this for a long time. and the wii sold 99 million units right?
didn't pachter also predict the end of home consoles last generation? i am fairly certain that he did. and look now. ps4, xbox 720/durango, wii u. not the end. this guy makes predictions, not fact. he has been wrong more than he has been correct so i'm sitting comfortably with my game pad. no worries here.



FineLerv said:

My opinion - people are grossly over-estimating how popular Sony and Microsoft's systems will be.

Last generation was Generation Casual. The X-Box did as many things for the casual gamer as the Wii did. Achievements (instant gratification); The COD Box; Presentation over gameplay, especially after the early years; A social network (albiet limited to the people you game with, but didn't Avatars make anyone else balk?). I stopped playing mine two years ago as it quite honestly started to feel like a baby's toy.

My point is it was popular because it got the non-gamer to play games as much as the Wii did, but it was marketed for the bros instead of the family. When I hear guys at the gym talking about "getting two Prestiges in one night", I am reminded at how the industry has changed. And I'm not too convinced that this same market is a feverish about the next generation as the average gaming site reader.



fluggy said:

Might be the truth no one wants to hear. My Wii u has been gathering dust after playing for about a month. None of the upcoming games excite me at all. Already have the 3rd party ports on ps3. New Zelda (not the pointless Windwaker remake) and MKart might keep me hanging on and hopefully a new Metroid.



Araknie said:

News? Ah!

I will continue to say this everytime i see Patcher or Marcus Beer or any analyst saying something.

1° because they are always wrong.
2° because they made EA turn what it is, yep they chose this way listening to external analysts as a consuelor program.

Great work.



banacheck said:

SanderEvers said:
@cornishlee So true, my PC has more RAM than a PS4 will have. But my PC isn't more innovative than it was 10 years ago when it had less ram than the Wii U.

Of course your PC is bound to have more RAM then a Console it runs a lot more poop in the back ground.

and the PS4 is using PC parts

So i can go out and buy these PC parts the Playstation4 uses no because it's are modified by Sony, so they are not common PC parts.



ajcismo said:

Thought I could give up posting on Pachter articles for Lent. I am a weak feeble man...
PS720 will price itself into cannibalism of its own respective brand. Just about every person I know owns a Wii and either a PS3 or 360 and if Nintendo keeps coming up with AAA software for its new HD console, I don't see why that trend won't continue. The problem is the huge software gaps they've been having for the last several years, killing momentum. At some point, Wii U's library is going to look too juicy to keep passing up on the console, which will look like a steal if the PS720 is in the $600 range.



Gamer83 said:

I actually wouldn't be surprised if he's right about this being the last generation of home consoles in a traditional sense. This industry is changing big time (in some ways for the better, in many for the worst) and Sony, MS and Nintendo will need to change with it.



hamae said:

Neither 360 or PS3 sold over 80M in this generation, and he expects the new gen selling over 85M? In this economy?



sonicfan1373 said:


One of EA's executives said that game prices will increase by $10 again this generation once all next-gen consoles are released, which is going to be brutal to everyone in the traditional game market if it happens. Although I believe Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft will try to keep software prices down because it would detrimental for their hardware business if it increases again this generation.



Aloth said:

He is just guessing, I don't care what he says, he tries to be polemical, he says something like this every 3 months.



Slapshot said:

@TheRealThanos Thanks for your thoughtful response to what I earlier wrote. Just to clarify, what I wrote was primarily from where Pachter's assessments are coming from, which I've gotten from interviews with him that I'm affiliated with (and therefore cannot post links to), as well as several of the things that he's stated over at Game Trailers. What I put wasn't particularly based on my personal opinions.

Nintendo just merged both it's home and portable console divisions together to best manage its resources together, yet the Wii U is essentially a combination of the Wii and the DS already. If you follow where I'm going with this - I think that the next generation for Nintendo will only find one console - a powerful portable console that can offer a home console gaming experience.

I also never said that the Wii has (or will) fail, and I most certainly do not hope that it will. I do, however, think that the console will continue to struggle until the price comes down and Nintendo finds a way to make the the mainstream audience have a better understanding of what the Wii U actually is - give them a reason to 'want' the Wii U. Software is a key element here, but he hardware is indeed expensive and Nintendo has to get consumers to understand it better.

As you're a sales and marketing specialist, you should know that regardless of how much money Nintendo has in the bank (which I did in fact know the numbers on) if the Wii U was to fail, it wouldn't be wise to repeat the same mistake over and again until the company folds. I've heard this argument several times here at Nintendo Life and I shake my head at it every single time.



Ren said:

doesn't sound that far fetched to me. 3DS still has better games and about the same functionality gameplay-wise.



Bankai said:

@Slapshot Further to your point, cash in the bank will mean nothing if shareholder confidence in Nintendo slides following failed products.

A highly liquid company with a collapsing share value is a wonderful acquisition target. From previous experience with Nintendo fans, they don't like the idea of Apple owning Nintendo.

So I would suggest that fans don't put too much faith in Nintendo's bank balance. It means very little to the survivability of your favourite company.



UnseatingKDawg said:

@Metal_Slugger: I'm sure that's exactly what Bugs would say. Daffy would even call this guy despicable.

@cornishlee: I'll have to join you on checking the dictionary, because according to this guy, it seems every console has something similar to the Game Pad, and RAM is apparently a new thing which will be exclusive to the PS4.

This Pachter guy is a bloomin' idiot. His predictions sound just like the people that say tablet gaming is going to overtake traditional consoles. He also sounds like that young punk I read about on this site last month. We get it, prediction-guys. You're biased and want to see your favorite consoles go forth and the ones you dislike ground in the dust. Why don't you stop beating around the bush and just say it already?

As for NintendoLife, I thank you for these articles. I've learned more about the silly people of the gaming world because of that.



TheRealThanos said:

@Slapshot Good and valid points again, and since you clarified yourself, allow me to do the same. As Bankai already said in a comment that added to yours, it is absolutely correct that the bank balance ALONE means nothing, although the link I posted does offer an interesting calculation and forecast. It's just that I have observed Nintendo through the years as having been smart or crafty enough to survive EACH and EVERY ONE of their failures and still come out on top eventually, something that no other gaming related company has EVER been able to do. If and when the Wii U will become a failure, they will re-assess the situation and come up with either a solution or a full blown successor which will once again be successful. That might take them a few years to do, but they will, mark my words. And in this scenario, the bank balance is the ADDED value to the whole, and then it DOES mean something.

That and of course the FACT that they will NEVER go third party, contrary to Sega (which by the way already had the Sega PC label LONG before they dropped out of the console business, so maybe that made the transition more natural) so Nintendo would probably rather just disappear from gaming altogether if that came to pass, but it won't...


The Wii U is not expensive for what it offers you. It may feel like it is expensive, but it is only marginally higher in price than the original Wii and offers so much more. The feeling probably comes from the disappointment of many people that they didn't get this monster console that offers a giant leap over the current HD consoles, so now they start moaning about it or even outright bashing the console. (talking in general, not saying that's you) Funny thing is that in comparison, the PS4 is also rather underwhelming, especially compared to the 'leap' from PS3 and to PC's, so there's nothing cutting edge about it. AT ALL. At least the Wii U did make a giant leap over it's predecessor, never mind the comparison with the competition, which is only for blind fanboys that haven't even experienced any console before the HD era, (so are instantly doomed to not understand what true gaming is about or where it all comes from) not for logically thinking human beings like you and me. In short, contrary to what a lot of ignoramuses are saying, the Wii U definitely is a TRUE next gen console, since that should NOT be measured against what other companies do, but just against it's own predecessor.

Leave A Comment

Hold on there, you need to login to post a comment...