Analysts Doubt 'Switch 2' Will Be Able To Top Switch's Mighty Sales Numbers

Is this the same analysts that said Nintendo was doomed and Switch wouldn't do great numbers??

"we do not see profits during the next-generation hardware cycle surpassing peak profits of the Nintendo Switch cycle."
That's how these people look at things. Depressing :/

Switch 2 will be a slow burn success, I think.
It'll do either at or below expectations the first year.
It'll shoot up the second year, for sure.
Third year, and after, once there's a steady stable of software and features? It'll (hopefully!) only go uphill from there.

Switch 2 won't sell 135 million units. What a brazen forecast.

Nintendo have never failed to defy industry predictions time and time again. Even if the Switch's successor doesn't sell as well the Switch, it could still be a huge success.

@NintendoWife
Well, it is about how much value the company has.
If shares are so expensive right now, but the expected sales do not support that, then that it is exactly their job to inform their audience of that.

@NintendoWife They are advising on where people should put their money. If you put your savings into stocks you either want the stock to grow or dividents to be paid, otherwise you would be better off having it in the bank and take the interest.
Like the system or not, but it is their job to look at where money will be better spent.

Yeah, I don't think it is exactly a bold or original take to say it might struggle to hit the same numbers. I don't think it really has to though (to be considered a success), and I agree with others saying it'll be a more slow growth.

Hmm

Just found two Analyst Companies, just let them say exact the opposite of each other all the Time.
Be right with your Anaysis 50% of the Time.

Edit:
To be serious, it depends on current Trends and if they get the Advertisment right, as they did with the first Switch.
It aimed trendy young Adults and was clear what it wanted to be.

So basically the analyst thinks it will fail, so the exact opposite will be true.

@JohnnyMind Very much agreed. All the rumors too are getting a bit much and we just need something concrete to talk about!

Let's hope Nintendo will come out with news before too long, though it may be a bit of a wait still for the announcement even if the system comes out this year.

The Nintendo Focus will not outsell the Switch, but if Nintendo are still sufficiently on the ball then the Focus should still sell over 100 million units.

The Switch hybridised system with "OS similar to touchpads" is unique and was relatively cheap compared to PSBOX consoles. It was also the only real handheld system out there in that gen.. I know we have steamdeck now but that is more for the harder core community. The issue was would it sell as mobile gaming had kinda become a big player in the the "handheld market". The answer was a resounding yes as ppl still wanted conventional tactile gaming with Nintendos IPs and with games not having to be adapted to mobile phone and pad screens. So the next system in theory should sell well. It doesn't have to get these massive numbers.

Going to be hard to top this one, yeah.
Making it past 100 million is only for the few.

I mean we don’t even know what this “Switch 2” will be. Many people think it will be a Switch with a better CPU,GPU, RAM but that hasn’t been Nintendo’s strategy for selling consoles since Wii. They find the “same but with better graphics” approach boring and not the formula for success. So I think it is best to reserve opinions until we see the thing…

No way it outsells the switch. The casual audience that latched onto it during covid for Animal Crossing still has Animal Crossing.
Purely anecdotal, of course, but at this point that's as good as it gets: my cousins and sister all got the DS for Wild World. They all skipped the 3DS and New Leaf. But they all came back for the Switch and New Horizons. Therefore, per the undisputable rule of the ACC (Animal Crossing Casual), the Switch 2 will not sell as many copies as the Switch 1.
Please subscribe to my financial analysis magazine.

What’s weird is that other companies can just release iterative consoles and be fine? Pretty sure the same forecasts arnt made for the eventual playstation 6

I don't agree; look at the massive jump in sales from PS1 to PS2. Hardware successors can still be incredibly successful--even more than what came before. Wii to Wii U was a failure for a myriad of reasons, one being that Nintendo did not have a steady output of games in the final year of the Wii leading up to Wii U. People had already moved on. But Switch is still an insanely popular system with a consistent stream of new software titles even this late into the console's life cycle.

Nintendo's next system may not be as revolutionary of a leap as inventing the console/handheld hybrid, but if they continue to iterate on what they already have and make the next system a massive leap in hardware specs, this could be a must-buy for core gamers looking for a handheld with more raw power. I think it should be pretty easy to reel in the casual crowd as well, especially if they release Animal Crossing and Mario Kart within the system's first year. That's all you really need to appeal to the masses.

It's probably a fairly safe bet to be honest. It's been a long time since Nintendo have been able to follow a success with an equal or greater success within the same product class. It's just the fickle nature of these things—that wider pool of people are more content with their existing console than those of us who are more hooked into console hardware cycles.

I suspect it'll be a 3DS situation - surprisingly slow in the beginning with ample popularity coming in the long term.

I would also like to point out that back in 2017, industry analysts and Nintendo fans alike didn't see Switch surpassing the sales success of Wii or breaking 100 million at all--yet, here we are.

Don't see how on the one hand analysts keep telling us video games are the biggest growing industry in the world, and then saying no, no growth possible with Switch. Have they not seen the success of the Mario movie?

Nintendo has the most valuable IP in all of gaming, and ever other investor like Embracer are just destroying the value of their IP. They'll be fine. We're three theme parks deep already.

Weird.

I think Switch -> Switch 2 will be like DS -> 3DS, won't outsell the predecessor but will still sell very well provided the software lineup is strong.

Though unlike 3DS, I'm not sure Switch 2 will have the Pokemon advantage this time.

This is kind of a shallow statement. Even if you know little of the industry, he’s just predicting that Switch2 won’t be one of the top 3 selling game systems of all time. Right there, the odds are in his favor.

That said, I could see it still selling well, but not reaching Sw1tch heights…and then the follow up to Switch 2 being a game changer that does.

Being backwards compatible will certainly help... A second Switch, plus it can play the new games!

@Not_Soos Yeah, but also no one predicted we would spend 3 years stuck inside our homes. Switch got a nice boost thanks to covid.

The craziest thing about Switch sales is that there has never been a price cut…in fact, considering the OLED, the price actually increased over time. Maybe the Lite counts as a price cut, but it still doesn’t have all the functions of a Switch. I expect Switch sales to continue after release of the next system for a while at a discount, and will possibly outsell the DS.

doesn't matter is next gen can't match or surpass the current Switch sales all it needs to do is not sell dramatically less like the Wii to Wii U

@superguy123 They are not saying that the next Nintendo console will fail.
They are just saying it probably won't sell as much as the Switch.

With Switch being as successful as it is, this is pretty much just a default position.
I mean, the PS6 probably won't sell that much either. Possible but not likely

Sounds like they don’t think Switch 2 will have enough of a pitch to cause families to replace their Switch consoles with an upgrade

@Grumblevolcano “ Switch -> Switch 2 will be like DS -> 3DS “

You should hang on to that, I can see that being fairly close to accurate 7 years from now, about 140mil down to around 80mil. 👍

Nice to see gamers can all agree on 1 thing, gaming analysts are a waste of time. 😂

Nintendo always seem to follow a licensed to ill with a Paul’s boutique sales wise, but the games will be there so that’s what matters. And Paul’s boutique is phenomenal xxxx

@boatie Have you been eating that sandwich again?!?!

Man I'm so tired of hearing about, "Switch 2".

Why do we still call it the Switch 2 as this "successor" will probably be the long awaited Switch Pro?

sWiitch U will dominate all with its giant dual screen controller, I'm buying 2!

I won't sell as much as the current Switch.

I believe that, but is it bad?

I do believe "Switch 2" will go beyond 100mln sales and even the PS4 ones at some point.

Not achieving current Switch sales doesn't mean it will sell poorly.

3rd party support will be key here..what if it can run COD and it looks 95% as good as it does on PS5 thanks to DLSS trickery? Could hardcore gamers be attracted?

If it has backwards compatibility I’m 100% buying it. If it doesn’t, it’ll take quite a bit to impress me when I have enough games on my switch to last me 20 more years.

"Analysts" were wrong in the past:

Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities (January 23, 2017): "Without something more substantial than five launch titles and somewhat interesting controller, this console won’t succeed"

Tom Orry, What Culture: "Players will want Call of Duty, Mass Effect, FIFA, Far Cry, Assassin’s Creed, Resident Evil and all the other big titles... the Switch looks set to follow the same disappointing path set by the Wii U. A path that will ultimately lead to failure"​

Ben Cousins: "Who else is excited about developing for a low resolution Tegra tablet with stick on controls and physical media? Hell yeah!"

Chris Morris, CNBC: "You’d best hope that spouse/parent/roommate isn’t settling in for a binge-watching session, because the battery life on Switch leaves a lot to be desired"

The switch sold so well because households bought multiple switches where they would only have bought 1 home console. We have bought 4 Switches (original, 2 Lites and 1 Oled) whereas we only bought I series X and 1 PS5.
If Nintendo continue with the hybrid model I will likely hold off buying the new system unless it manages to match the SteamDeck in specs

@NintendoWife welcome to late stage capitalism! The line being high doesn’t matter if it’s not also pointing up! Made 1 billion profit the last 10 years running? Well if you don’t make 2 billion next year you’re a failure and we’ll shut you down!

I would bet good money that the system launches with Switch Sports 2.

@Ogbert And think how many less layoffs would have been seen recently with sustainable business models.

Yeah, I think it'll drop initially from profit seeking, but then continue to climb. look at the pattern... prior to the modern era, Nintendo's stock price was overdependent on its console sales. now that it's diversified so heavily (movies and theme parks, hybrid development) it's stock pattern has nothing to do with its game releases and very little to do with its hardware sales. we're in uncharted territory, but this Bloomberg analyst seems to focus only on the hardware.

there are still stock traders who are just using the climbs to occassionally sell-off, then buy again when it's a little low but trending up. but i think what you see is that nintendo's baseline value (noise floor) is increasing from people who are investing because they truly love the direction the company is going. that's new.

And it makes sense. Those of us raised on/by nintendo since the 80's have more liquid cash than ever, and it's only continuing to grow

I still feel they are a good company to hold. I don’t expect them to close their doors before I croak and I have a policy of owning shares in companies that spend my money with (so I get a little of it back). As a long term investor I’m fine. Nintendo’s financials look good and I trust the leadership fiscally. I feel like it must be stressful to be a short term investor.

Nintendo is one of my best performers recently. They are fine. They will drop a bit and stable out in the long run.

watch they get proven wrong just like that one guy patcher.

These Analysts get paid big bucks for just saying anything.

Switch 2 will miss out some on sales because of the huge amount of PC handhelds too which didn't exist much first years of Switch.

Predicting that the Switch 2 won't sell as much as Switch 1 is hardly a shocking guess given that Switch 1 is closing in on 140 million units sold, but maybe wait for the thing to be announced first??

The level of Switch 2's success depends on 4 things:-

1) Backwards compatibility with original Switch games

2) All the current NSO libraries (NES/Gameboy/SNES/N64 etc) are readily available to access from day one on the new console.

3) Switch 2 hardware not being a flop - hopefully it can do 1080p 120fps in handheld mode and 4K 60fps in docked mode (with the help of DLSS).

4) It needs awesome brand new games.

If all 4 of those boxes get ticked, I believe the Switch 2 can surpass its predecessor

@GoshJosh Did it, though? Because we were also dealing with chip shortages during that time, so companies were unable to manufacture enough consoles to meet demand. I don't think most people were still self-isolating after three years; I would say maybe a year or year and a half before things returned to relative normalcy. But the chip shortage continued for quite a bit longer, as I recall.

@Gavin I'd love to see a wavetips analysis of wii/wiiu and modern switch era stock prices. there's a VERY clear difference in the shape of the stock's value. honestly, bold statement: gone are the wiiu days when nintendo stock tanks because of poor hardware market performance.

Sounds like someone is trying to ensure share values remain comically low (as usual) by creating the narrative that outselling Switch is the only way to consider Switch 2 a success.

Switch was a huge upgrade from 240p of 3DS. Now most casual gamers wont pay $400 for 60 FPS games while they are still having fun with Switch 1. I'm expecting another gimmick from Nintendo as selling point.

Another anal-ist talking about a console that has not been announced yet, and you, making put newks of ***** assumptions. Please, report stuff that's only accurate and official.

@BLAZINOAH focus? is that a big rumor on what the successor is gonna be called?

Every mother: But we already have a Nintendo at home.

The Nes outsold the SNES because people had a Nintendo at home. The Wii was a revoloution- and the right time to get a new Nintendo. There were a lot of problems with the Wii U, but one people overlook is that 'We have a Wii at home.'

There are other factors, but if Nintendo can keep the price down and keep the good games coming, then the Switch 2 will do well! Not every console needs to be the best console ever to be a good console (SNES, N64, and Gamecube).

Switch is such a perfect concept that I'd love Nintendo to just improve it instead of going somewhere else. I never liked double screen to be honest, it was a distraction.

I’m assuming when people hear negative analysis towards Nintendo they instantly think of Micheal Patcher?

@rjejr I really hope Nintendo's investors continue to stay away from the "infinite growth" mentality that has ruined many other companies. Selling as well as 3DS should still be considered a gigantic success.

I mean even if it sold half of the switch’s sales (which is basically impossible) it would still be a pretty good success. So I’m not really worried

Switch 1 had almost Zero competition so it was easier to create the hype, but with all the portable PC’s, Steamdeck Oled and many others, the Switch 2 will have to overcome much greater challenge. It would at least need to be more powerful than Steam Deck to justify a purchase from people who already have one of those, and those numbers are not small. If Switch 2 offers only a power of a base ps4, which is like 10 years old console, it will be predetermined to not fail, but it will face sales that might not even exceed 70-80mil units sold. Choose wisely Nintendo! It’s not just about power for sure, games matter, but Switch 2 will share ecosystem with ps6 in maybe 2-3 years and will need to handle 3rd party ports of ps6 games so hopefully they will make solid hardware that won’t have the same issues like the Switch’s terrible running ports and no content on cartridges for its limited space

“more an opinion channeled directly from the recently-Neuralinked brain of Captain Obvious”

Gavin wins quote of the day! 🤣

It all comes down to good software, but I will say Switch 2 will already start at a disadvantage without the Wii U library, the Switch Online libraries, and the massive amount of remakes and remasters the Switch had to bolster it’s lineup.

Even when Switch sales absolutely domiinate their rivals (over the course of it's lifespan), it's bonkers how analysts still see Sony as the baseline for comparisons. They'll never get it while this is common practice and they'll try their damndest to make the industry as formulaic and predictable as possible, kowtowing to third party publishers.

This is just pessimism I reckon. Nintendo doomed for the sake of dooming them. We don't even know what they have planned, but if it's as affordable and capable as the Switch was reltively speaking, then I don't think they have too much to worry about. Games sell consoles. Their ip is going to Hollywood. Anyone that doesn't think Nintendo is in a position of growth is deluded.

Switch was doomed on the back of Wii U. Switch 2 is doomed on the back of Switch lol. Mind you, if you change their 'analysis' to read "No console will sell as many units as Switch" then at least it's a tad more grounded - if no less doom mongering.

zero chance it will surpass switch 1 first for many reasons price will be more expensive then what the base switch was when it came out second it may not be bc.. third i am expecting a downturn in the economy that is to be expected in the next 7 years...

That's pretty much a given as Nintendo's iterative hardware never sells more than the predecessors, but I wonder how close it'll get in the end. Actually, would the Switch be considered a refresh/new concept like the Wii and DS or a refined iteration of the Wii U?

It really depends on what the new console is. Still no clear confirmation that it's a fully new console or a continuation of the Switch lineage.

@Duncanballs
Hahah indeed

@NintendoWife That's an analyst's job. Not sure what you're wanting exactly. Lol

I just watched an analytic talk about the short comings of the ps2 prior to it’s launch.

@superguy123 The same isn't being said about PS6 is because we're not on the verge of getting a PS6 announcement yet. I'm sure we'll see analysts saying similar things.

Switch sales are going be pretty hard to beat no matter what but I do agree with the analyst to some extent.

The Switch 2 will need to do something different if they want a "gamble" at another 100+million seller.

A large percentage of switch owners will be of the younger demographic where its been given to them as a gift by parents that may not be gamers themselves.

I can imagine a parent saying to little Timmy. What can the switch 2 do that the Switch one you have cant.

Then you got the ever increasing number of hand held PCs. And whilst not entirely aimed at the same market. I can imagine if I was a 16 year old that had a switch for the past few years.....Id be asking for a "cooler" more powerful handheld OC

Gamers: Price will stop the console succeeding.

Also gamers: Buy every console. Don't limit yourself.

@BLAZINOAH I heard it'll be called the switch please.

@Burntbreadman At least when little Timmy wants a new PC he can pretend to his parents that they want to learn to code hahaha!

So what if it doesn’t

Since the Switch was an outlier in terms of it's lifespan matched only by the original NES (which was actually shorter because the Famicom was only available in Japan for the first several years of it's lifespan), it seems like a pretty safe bet that whatever the next generation is will probably have a shorter lifecycle and sell fewer units, just by the law of averages.

@HolyGeez03 the problem with backwards compatibility on handheld consoles is that the screen sizes get messed up.
Gameboy color games looked horrible stretched on a gameboy advance and I've read ds games looked weird on a 3ds due to the black border around the screen.

I just love how we get insider already stating the downfall of Switch 2 when they don't even have or test the actual Switch 2 hardware to know much to nothing else besides hot air talk. The cost will keep sales more or less down but when people start switching pun over to the new hardware the sales will increase accordingly, Those PC portable console isn't a Switch competitors by any stretch of the imagination here - if one didn't know why the Switch is so successful and mass production then they have no clue here.

@Lanmanna I was referring specifically to the phrasing: They recommend selling because they’re not expecting Switch 2 profits surpassing peak profits of Switch 1. So if you’re not outperforming an exceptional previous performance (peak sales of potentially the most successful console ever) they withdraw their support. That’s quite ruthless no?

Basically all that's saying is Nintendo has a hard act to follow and they think it probably won't be as much of a run away success as the Switch was.
In fairness after a big success it's hard to follow it up again when so much of the equation was the right things at the right time.
Not saying Switch 2 will be a failure but they are betting it won't top the switchs success.

@CharlieZee Unlikely, but definitely the funniest name I've heard so far. Marketing will speak for itself. "U on PlayStation? Switch, please..."

that two/trhree factors that point why Switch sucessor will sell less then Nintendo Switch, 1- the console will be too similar to Switch(why do i need a Switch sucessor, when my Switch do everything i want), 2- games that is too expensive( people will think twice before buying a Switch sucessor game, that is rumored to be priced at $70) and 3- Nintendo Switch sucessor will launch with a much fierce competition, Switch is not longer the only hybrid console in the market,well if Switch sucessor could sell at least 100 milions consoles, that would be nice, 4- usually after Nintendo have a sucesefull console, the following console, what a drastic decrease in sales(DS to 3DS, Wii to Wii U)

This is a plausible outcome, I think the Switch got a bit of an unexpected shot in the arm during lockdown with Animal Crossing and the chances of lightning striking twice are somewhat slim… that said, the original GameBoy struck gold with Pokemon reinvigorating sales, so Nintendo has form for defying the odds.

It will be interesting to see if the Switch 2 really is iterative or does do something unexpectedly new. If it has some unique gimmick then all bets could be off.

“Yeah, well… you know, that’s just like, uh, your opinion, man.” - The Dude

@nimnio Welcome to Nintendo comment section. Here we raise pitchforks and riot over nothing burgers.

So the Switch 2 will be the next best selling console. Analysts rarely are anywhere near accurate. They are like the weatherman, thinking they know everything. But in the end still wrong almost every time.

@Grumblevolcano "infinite growth"

Well that is kind of why most people invest, buy low, sell high, w/ the short sellers doing their own thing (which I wouldn't even call investing, it's really betting) and old people over 80 holding onto stocks b/c dividends. But these analysts, well half of them were saying consoles were dead like 2 generations ago, so they're obviously just guessing, and wrong just as often as right. 🤷‍♂️

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018/01/years-after-predicted-death-game-consoles-are-doing-better-than-ever/

Oh yeah, congrats on 10 years of NL comments, over a decade deserves notice I say. 😁

Who knows. It might be that all the casual gamers, are satisfied with the OG Switch, and only the hardcore Nintendo crowd, upgrades to the next Switch. So it might be a slower seller in the beginning, until the casuals decides to finally upgrade, a few years later.

I doubt it'll be a Wii U situation though.

@Grumblevolcano Wdym by Switch 2 will not have the Pokémon advantage? Obviously it will have Pokémon games.

Also regarding comparisons to how the 3DS sold, I don't see a scenario in which the Switch 2 sells less than half of what the Switch will end up at. That is what the 3DS sold like.
I think over 100 million units is definitely happening if it gets as many great games as the Switch did.

@Ravenmaster Expecting 120fps on the Switch 2 is delusional, especially in handheld mode.

@BTB20 If the Switch 2 rumours are true and the SoC really is based on Nvidia RTX 30 series architecture (which supports DLSS) then 1080p @ 120hz isn't too far fetched. It'd be playing at 720p and getting upscaled to 1080p, most likely raising the fps to near 120.

Only way i can se Nintendo do well with this console (assuming we are talking about the next iteration of the Switch concept) is:

Meet expectations regarding horsepower (most concerning issue right now is if the machine have less than 12GM of ram)

Inovate in some capacity (switch to a third option and not just console to handheld, like for example, console-handheld-VR visor)

Other thant that, they are going to sell well but not ps2 well (my 2cents)

Nintendo have always done things their own way. Sometimes it's a massive success and sometimes I wonder what they are thinking.

It took years for us to get folders and I still wouldn't be surprised if the switch 2 lacks backwards compatibility.

Until we get an announcement saying that the switch 2 ticks all the boxes for what most players want, I think the share prices may be getting a bit ahead of themselves.

I mean, Sony did it with PS1 -> PS2, PS3 -> PS4, and are set to do it again with PS4 -> PS5, so I don't see why Nintendo can't do the same with Switch -> Switch 2.

Even if it doesn't meet the sales of Switch 1, that doesn't mean it won't be a success.

@BTB20 There will no doubt be Pokemon games on Switch 2 but with the state of Scarlet/Violet and Palworld going viral, it may end up being that Pokemon's ability as a system seller for Nintendo hardware decreases during the Switch 2 era.

I'm praying that Nintendo just don't play it safe with the Switch successor and really innovate and surprise like we know they can. The whole industry needs upending with something new more than ever.

If Switch 2 is just iterative then the analysis is probably right, sadly.

I agree.

But that kinda goes without saying. It's not every generation a console rivals the PS2/DS record.

@Grumblevolcano I don't see the connection. Palworld's gameplay is nothing like Pokémon's. How does Palworld's success in any way suggest that Pokémon is going to sell less from now on? It's not at all satiating people's desire for the next Pokémon game.

If anything, the Pokémon-like designs in Palworld are what makes it so appealing to many, which in turn once again shows how big Pokémon's pull is. Scarlet/Violet has really strong legs and has kept selling throughout last year without issue.

In those yearly reviews that Nintendo send to everyone in December with personal gaming statistics you could choose your favorite game that you played in 2023. Nintendo published the results in their News Section on the Switch. Pokémon Violet ranked 5th and Scarlet ranked 8th. The games are undeniably popular.
Nothing at all suggest that Pokémon is going to be less capable as a system seller.

@Speedo #teamsuperswiitchu360

That Switch 2 won't expand Nintendo's audience is the first real analyst thought that wasn't overly obvious to everyone else. That's different from an adoption rate of hardware sales to existing customers. Something I hadn't considered. But, like with what happened with Switch, there has to be a killer app. While Mario Kart did a LOT for the system, I still think it was largely the wild success of Animal Crossing that established the breath of fan-base. Pretty sure it sold more systems than any other title. Not saying S2 needs another AC title, but it does need some kind of mass appeal IP title in the launch window. Ideally, something that will also help showcase the system.

I should note I am not trying to download MK8 or BotW. Both also sold systems, but I thought the unit sales of AC showed stronger correlation to system sales from the analysis I read a few years back.

If you look back at all Ninty's home consoles, sales seem to follow a typical 'pair' pattern - massive first console, much less followup console.

Look at these console pairs - NES/SNES, N64/GC, Wii/WiiU. In every case, the first console in the pair sold much better than the second (the N64/GC might be an exception).

We are looking at a NES/SNES sales pattern with Switch/S2 pair - Switch did amazingly well, S2 will do descent (doubt it will be abysmal like Wii U or GC) but nowhere near S1. Then Ninty's next console after S2 will sell gangbusters.

Also, with the Switch, Nintendo has also seemed to find solid grounding on descent 1st party release cadence, the best 3rd party support since probably the SNES, and great game offerings and relationships with Indy developers. These three factors, assuming they continue with the S2, will lead to a reasonably comfortable sales pattern.

For the record, I will buy a Switch 2 on launch day, because I love Nintendo and their products and am always happy to support them.

Analysts should only predict if they have a job or not. That's what they are good at. Alot of Analysts in 2017 said the Switch was a failure console and yet its 2024 and Switch 2 is coming. Whom was the winner here????

It will sell just as well as long as Nintendo give it a tonne of meaningful exclusives like they have done with the Switch. Unlike other consoles who don't rely on exclusives Nintendo consoles do, not many have bought the switch for third party titles.

Im pretty sure just the happenings around the world is enough to ensure it won't sell as much. Hard time to sell games between WW3 with ever increasing cost of living to the point a good chunk of people living at the very low end will be homeless this time next year.

If the Switch software carries over, Nintendo markets it as an "Upgrade your Switch," then I think this will continue the trend. However, I think it won't be quite the fever pitch, but if new Switch SKUs are still going to be released every other year following its launch, then people have upgrade points.

For example, Switch Lite users who have been onboard since 2019, will likely see an upgraded unit by 2026. OLED users, possibly 2028. I really don't think the Lite and an OLED models will be that spread out, but I think 2026 will see the Switch 2 family begin to grow.

Nintendo's follow-up systems are never as big of a success as the original, but if the Switch 2 can only have around a 16-17% drop in sales like the SNES compared to the NES, I think Nintendo will consider it a major success especially since software is likely to be priced at $70 making up for lost revenue.

I think the Switch 2 will sell about just as well as the Switch 1, give or take 10 million units. History has always proven that you should never underestimate Nintendo.

Switch U will do just fine.

A fair prediction since the Switch is closing in on 140M units sold and it's really hard to replicate that. But that doesn't mean Switch 2 won't be successful in its own right.

I see one way the super switch could outdo the other current consoles much less the switch's sales. And that's if the super switch has two editions, a basic and one with VR capability out of the box. As well as a standalone VR adapter able to be purchased for a basic edition in case users one day want to upgrade.

Power Switch.

Those so called analysts are using bad numeric for comparisons to boost their own lost Ego from Switch 2017 success.

I think it will do great. I also think that a lot of the new software will also be compatible with the original switch. Just different power profiles.

@versionfiv not trolling, but do you really see VR is going mainstream? I always thought of it as a niche product because I have never been very comfortable using VR for any extended period of time.

Reminder they are no more accurate with their predictions then your drunk pal at the bar making a prediction with how wrong they have been ESPECIALLY when it concerns Nintendo lol

It's a no brainer. There's no way Switch 2 meets Switch 1 sales numbers. Switch had a special niche. Along with gamers, people who didn't play games, Ala Wii, bought one. Switch 2 is rumored to be $400. I mean from a house of 4 people and 6 Switches, only one of us is buying a Switch 2. I might at some point but it's gonna have to have the games I want....not even Switch in all its shovel ware glory had games I was looking for.

@Danrenfroe2016 eventually yeah I think VR will be a common way for people to play video games. It seems technology has slowed down from the breakneck advancements that I saw when I was younger from the 90s through 2010, so I can't say VR will be a thing anytime soon. But I do think it will be the way our kids or grandkids will be playing games!