Jan: Nowt.
Feb: Yoshi's Woolly World
Mar: Nothing.
Apr: Still nothing. This is Nintendo, remember?
May: Xenoblade - Japanese release will be delayed into this year. We'll get it a few months after.
Jun: Diddly squit.
Jul: Mario Party 10 - because it has to come somewhere.
Aug: Devil's Third - Like W101, Nintendo will leave this to die in Summer.
Sep: Splatoon - delayed from first half of the year.
Nov: Mario Maker - Christmas' big Mario game.
Dec: Pokken - in time for Christmas.
Starfox and Zelda will be delayed into 2016. Probably Kirby too, just 'cos.
Jan: -
Feb: Yoshi's Woolly World
Mar: Mario Maker - Mario Party 10
Apr: -
May: Splatoon
Jun: Kirby and the Rainbow Curse
Jul: -
Aug: -
Sep: Devil's Third
Oct: Xenoblade Chronicles X
Nov: Zelda U
Dec: -
I don't know about Star Fox U though, I guess late 2015, but it could be anywhere between September and December. Mario vs. Donkey Kong somewhere in early 2015.
Three games out of 17 does not a pattern make. Let's look into this a little more deeply, shall we?
The Legend of Zelda - Most likely not delayed. The Japanese release was less than a year after Super Mario Bros. came out. Since Miyamoto wasn't putting much time into this game until after Super Mario Bros came out, it's safe to assume this didn't see a delay, or at least not more than a week or two.
Zelda II - Also most likely not delayed. I can't find anything in the wiki to suggest that this was pushed back, and it also came out less than a year after the original game. Much closer to a full year, this time, I can only assume that this is due to the games larger size and new systems taking up more development time.
Link to the Past - Three for three. Can't find a single hint that this game had been delayed. Well, that's not entirely true. It was moved from the NES to the SNES during development, and unlike the previous two games, development took three years from starting in '88 to launch in '91. But compared to the first two titles, this game was absolutely massive. The SNES was designed to drastically increase the memory of the cart, but Link to the Past even had to break that limit. Beyond that, it's implied that development switched from NES to SNES very early in development, so they wouldn't have announced a date, by this time, anyways.
Link's Awakening - Not definitive, but probably not. This game started out as a side-project. It wasn't even supposed to be a Zelda game, it was just something someone wanted to make, but as it developed, it took the place of an intended port of LttP. It took one-and-a-half years to develop, which seems like a short time, given how much they implemented that they'd never tried, before. It's hard to say for sure, but I don't think this was delayed, either.
Ocarina of Time - First off, can I just say that this is by far one of the most schizophrenic development cycles I've ever read about? Seriously, it's just plain crazy. Aside from that, however, Zelda 64 development didn't actually begin until 1996. Given how long it took them to develop Link to the Past, I'd be shocked, if they thought this would be ready by 1997, but I've been surprised, before. Even if they did, though, this is easily understandable by the fact that the game's development was so ridiculously schizophrenic. "Oh, it's gonna be on the disc drive and use the Super Mario 64 engine!" "Actually, we made a new engine for it!" "Actually, we're dropping the portal idea!" "Actually, we're taking it off the disc drive!" "Actually, we're adding a child Link to it!" I wouldn't be surprised if this cause the apparent delay.
Majora's Mask - Obviously not delayed. This game took one year to develop and came out less than two years after Ocarina of Time as an alternative to actually completing the original vision for Ocarina of Time (now called Ura Zelda, which contrary to popular belief did NOT become Master Quest.) So far, that's 5 or 6 out of 6 titles to not get delayed.
Oracle of Ages/Oracle of Seasons - So this one's got a very interesting dev phase, too. I'll spare the details and say the third game was cancelled and a lot of changes had to be made to the game because the original idea of porting The Legend of Zelda to the Gameboy Color got scrapped, too and Flagship (Capcom) did stupid things during development that caused them to have to keep remaking and redesigning the maps and gameplay. This got pushed so far back that it wound up including GBA-based secrets. Technically, as this was Capcom's fault, and not Nintendo's, this shouldn't count, but I'll go ahead and count them, anyways. 5 or 6 out of 8.
WindWaker - This is another case of the team building it faster than people assume. It's worth noting that the tech demo, The Legend of Zelda 128, was never intended to be a game. Like. At all. It wasn't a pre-build, and in fact, the dev team was questioning whether "realistic" was the way they wanted Zelda to go or not. Development didn't start until late 2000 and took about two years to release the actual game. It was out in the US three months after that. 6 or 7 out of 9.
A Link to the Past & Four Swords - Again, we can blame Capcom, but this actually came out on time, as it was intended to use similar graphics to the Wind Waker in terms of style. It wound up releasing on the very same month as Wind Waker did in Japan. Interestingly enough, this was intended to be the fourth game in a six-game Zelda deal between Flagship and Nintendo, but it wound up only being the third due to the cancellation of the third game in the "Triforce Series."
Four Swords Adventures - Hi-ho Capcom, awaaaaaaay! This game appears to have come out on time, as well, as it was first shown off in 2003 and released the very next year. The only case of this being delayed was in the PAL region to avoid cannibalizing sales for The Minish Cap, SPEAKING OF WHICH!
The Minish Cap - This was released dreadfully close to Four Swords Adventures, but this one actually should've been out sooner. The big joke here is that this was actually intended to be the fifth game in Capcom's deal and wound up being... well... the fifth game. It was planned to come out in 2003, it seems, but they halted work on it to focus on the Four Swords half of Link to the Past & Four Swords. After that, they returned to work on this title, and wound up releasing it side-by-side with FSA (intended to be the sixth and final title). Point is, the new count is 8 or 9 out of 12 games that were released on time.
Twilight Princess - There's no doubting it. Even the Wikipedia article lists this as being announced for 2005. But it's no secret or even surprise as to why the game was delayed. It wasn't due to difficulties or extra features. It was to make the Wii version come out, first. I was actually disappointed in Nintendo, when I found out about this, but I did eventually just get over it. I was really just annoyed that they would delay a COMPLETE GAME just to let another version of it launch, first.
Phantom Hourglass - Whoops, more delays. This was originally intended to be Four Swords: DS and was eventually transformed into a sequel to the Wind Waker. Even then, at the Game Developers Conference 2006, Miyamoto announced it for a holiday release in 2006. It didn't launch until June of 2007. So what's that? 8 or 9 out of 14? That record is slipping.
Spirit Tracks - This was out two years later and developed by the same team as Phantom Hourglass, unlike many of the previous rapid-fire Zelda titles. I can't find anything about an announcement date, either, which typically implies it launched on time. 9 or 10 out of 15.
Skyward Sword - Another open-and-shut case, here. Aonuma mentioned in 2009 that he planned to release Skyward Sword (at the time, still unnamed) by the end of 2010. However, that simply didn't happen. What IS worth noting is that during early stages they wanted to "expand on the realism of Twilight Princess." But then we got that mixed with the cel-shading of Wind Waker. I think they decided they wanted that feeling of a painting come to life sometime in 2010 and when they revealed the name at the tradeshow, they had already begun remodeling the graphics to suit their new style. 9 or 10 out of 16.
A Link Between Worlds - This one didn't have time to get delayed. It took less than two years to develop and wasn't officially unveiled until less than half a year before launch. 10 or 11 out of 17.
So what have we learned?
Well, it seems a very real possibility that Zelda U will get delayed, but looking at the development so far and the public image, I don't think it actually fits the pattern. Did you notice? The games that got delayed didn't just take longer than expected. They went through massive changes or had a total wreck of a dev cycle. They were an absolute mess at the time of the delay announcement and so it was no surprise they got delayed.
Why doesn't Zelda U fit this pattern? Very simple: Zelda U has from the very start been all about creating an open world Zelda. The graphic style doesn't seem to have undergone a drastic change, and the direction has been straight as an arrow, thus far. Even in the earliest rumors, back in 2010 (suggested to be about the time development began) the idea was an open world Zelda. When they officially announced a Zelda game for the Wii U in January 2013, the very first things the said about it was that it wouldn't require a specific order or operation and you wouldn't have to play alone. They even suggested that they were trying to go back to the roots of the original Zelda with this one. And what did we see at E3? Exactly what had been rumored since as far back as 2010. An open world Zelda with vibrant detail and stunning graphics. In the earliest rumors, it was suggest that the new Zelda would take a five year development cycle, and Aonuma has echoed the rumor in confirmation that it was planned to take a five-year development cycle. No matter how you look at this, I can't see anything at all going so horribly wrong that they'd have to delay the game to 2016, and it seems they're just as eager to get the game to us as we are to play it.
So tl;dr I really don't think we'll be getting a delay, this time around. It has only established a pattern in the form of delays happening only to the absolute train wrecks of dev cycles and sudden changes in late development (like porting to Wii or switching the graphical style). It really doesn't seem like that'll happen this time, especially since the E3 trailer was apparently in-engine and in-game, with some obvious editing here and there.
@C-Olimar Man, you are unpleasable, aren't you? Have at least a /little/ faith in Nintendo, huh? You are aware that they aren't intentionally creating Spring gaming droughts, right? And that this Spring was only really a drought, if you were Wii U only, because 3DS was getting a fair amount of attention.
@neohopeSTF and C-Olimar, read my previous comment to find out why it's unlikely Aonuma will be delaying Zelda U into 2016. And I don't recall Miyamoto announcing Star Fox U as a 2015 title. I think he may have said he /wanted/ it to be out in 2015, but it's obviously too early in development for anything to be concrete. (Heck, they haven't even chosen a dev team for it. This is essentially Miyamoto's little side-project, for now.) You can't really delay something that hasn't been set, in the first place.
Just commenting on Wind Waker not being delayed, that is true but only because they cut extra dungeons out (that went into Twilligth Princess) which is why their is so much fetch and sail missions to compensate.
I don't think it is meaningful comparing 2D Zelda's with 3D ones.
They have also never yet done an open world game before. (Other people who have still end up with delays all the time).
They didn't start fully until after Windwaker HD. How long does an open world game normally take ?
If it does manage to be released on time I will be pleased but they delayed even the 3DS Smash. There is no way there won't be at least a small delay.
Even then, they haven't even given us a season. We only got 2015. We're just assuming it's at the end of the year (and it probably is) but even then, we saw so little of the game that it doesn't really make sense to assume... well... ANYTHING. We don't KNOW how far along it is in development. We don't KNOW how much there is left to do or how much has already been done. All we know is that Nintendo said it'd be out next year and so very little else. To quote Boondocks, "The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." Just because we didn't SEE more doesn't mean there isn't more to see, but it also doesn't mean that there is. All I know is that we were told 2015 and it seems silly to assume that they're wrong. Plus, regardless of when full development started, you are aware that there's a LOT of work to be done by a smaller team before you can get to the meat of the project where having a full team is required, right? I mean a lot. The development cycle tends to taper at both ends, so many companies will start their teams on a new project near the end of an old one so that they're not wasting man power, and considering how big this game is looking to be and that we've been told it's been in development since 2011 or 2010, it's really hard to say whether or not it really is that far along, but it seems foolish to just assume it'll get delayed, especially when as far as we're aware, it hasn't undergone any massive changes or anything. It's exactly what it was intended to be from the start from what I've heard which, funny enough, seems to usually end in a Zelda game releasing on time.
All games are delayed one way or another. EA has FIFA 2018 World Cup ready but has to wait til 2017/8
I am just glad Nintendo haven't fallen into the trap of releasing broken games but it's not as though 100% of their content is perfect anyway. I think most of their games in the last couple of years feel a bit like they ran out of time despite delays. Pikmin 3 has tons of content but didn't feel as epic as it could have. 3D world had lots of recycling and Skyward Sword had almost no rewarding side-quests.
I only posted this to get my avatar as the forum's thumbnail.
I don't think it is meaningful comparing 2D Zelda's with 3D ones.
They have also never yet done an open world game before. (Other people who have still end up with delays all the time).
They didn't start fully until after Windwaker HD. How long does an open world game normally take ?
If it does manage to be released on time I will be pleased but they delayed even the 3DS Smash. There is no way there won't be at least a small delay.
Even then, they haven't even given us a season. We only got 2015. We're just assuming it's at the end of the year (and it probably is) but even then, we saw so little of the game that it doesn't really make sense to assume... well... ANYTHING. We don't KNOW how far along it is in development. We don't KNOW how much there is left to do or how much has already been done. All we know is that Nintendo said it'd be out next year and so very little else. To quote Boondocks, "The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." Just because we didn't SEE more doesn't mean there isn't more to see, but it also doesn't mean that there is. All I know is that we were told 2015 and it seems silly to assume that they're wrong. Plus, regardless of when full development started, you are aware that there's a LOT of work to be done by a smaller team before you can get to the meat of the project where having a full team is required, right? I mean a lot. The development cycle tends to taper at both ends, so many companies will start their teams on a new project near the end of an old one so that they're not wasting man power, and considering how big this game is looking to be and that we've been told it's been in development since 2011 or 2010, it's really hard to say whether or not it really is that far along, but it seems foolish to just assume it'll get delayed, especially when as far as we're aware, it hasn't undergone any massive changes or anything. It's exactly what it was intended to be from the start from what I've heard which, funny enough, seems to usually end in a Zelda game releasing on time.
That is really convoluted reasoning.
“30fps Is Not a Good Artistic Decision, It's a Failure”
Freedom of the press is for those who happen to own one.
@UGXwolf Whilst it is true that we have no idea how far Zelda U is in terms of development, we do know that most Zelda games are usually revealed long before their actual release, about 1.5 years. They get revealed at E3, and are released around the holiday in the following year. Zelda U is also a perfect holiday title. I don't think it's too far fetched to assume that Nintendo will do something similar for Zelda U.
@unrandomsam Lemme rephrase that, then. From what we know, there's no reason to assume it will delayed.just pessimistic people being pessimistic.
Please understand ..... based on what seems to be happening recently even when they give a season or rough date then the date is 3 months after that.
I believed them when they said Smash Bros 3DS was going to be a Summer release I have no interest in making that mistake again. (I also believed them Tropical Freeze was coming out in November last year there is a pattern here).
“30fps Is Not a Good Artistic Decision, It's a Failure”
Freedom of the press is for those who happen to own one.
@unrandomsam Lemme rephrase that, then. From what we know, there's no reason to assume it will delayed.just pessimistic people being pessimistic.
Please understand ..... based on what seems to be happening recently even when they give a season or rough date then the date is 3 months after that.
I believed them when they said Smash Bros 3DS was going to be a Summer release I have no interest in making that mistake again. (I also believed them Tropical Freeze was coming out in November last year there is a pattern here).
Super Mario 3D World. Your pattern us null and void.
Guessing when a game will come out is surprisingly fun!
JAN: Mario Maker
FEB: Project Zero 5 / Fatal Frame V
MAR: Yoshi's Wolly World
APR: Mario Party 10
MAY: Mario VS Donkey Kong
JUN: Xenoblade
JUL: Splatoon
AUG: Kirby
SEP: Currently Unknown Game
OCT: Devil's Third
NOV: ZELDAAAA!!!
DEC: STAR FOX!!!
If that happened then there would be a Nintendo published game for every month of the year!!
Hopefully they have a better release schedule than this year, waiting every two to three months is a joke when you have no 3rd party support and your only giving a Luke-warm effort in regards to the VC.
@unrandomsam Lemme rephrase that, then. From what we know, there's no reason to assume it will delayed.just pessimistic people being pessimistic.
Please understand ..... based on what seems to be happening recently even when they give a season or rough date then the date is 3 months after that.
I believed them when they said Smash Bros 3DS was going to be a Summer release I have no interest in making that mistake again. (I also believed them Tropical Freeze was coming out in November last year there is a pattern here).
Super Mario 3D World. Your pattern us null and void.
Because there was one that wasn't ? There is all the stuff Reggie said he wanted ready at launch. One (Or even a few) outlier doesn't break the general trend.
“30fps Is Not a Good Artistic Decision, It's a Failure”
Freedom of the press is for those who happen to own one.
January: Video game*
February: Video game*
March: Video game*
April: Video game*
May: Video game*
June: Video game*
July: Video game*
August: Video game*
September: Video game*
October: Video game*
November: Zelda
....
December: Video game*
At the Game Awards they were confident that Zelda will release in 2015 and even stated that Star Fox will release BEFORE Zelda. They also showed more footage of Mario Maker, which makes it seem like it's coming soon since it was confirmed for the first half of 2015.
January: Captain Toad Treasure Tracker (Europe)
February: Kirby and the Rainbow Curse (confirmed)
March: Mario Maker
April: Yoshi's Woolly World or Splatoon
May: Yoshi's Woolly World or Splatoon
June: Mario Party 10 (unless they decide to hold it off for the holiday season, but we saw a decent amount of it at E3, and I imagine they made more progress since then)
July: Project Giant Robot (we'll see more during Nintendo Directs and then final product and release date shown at E3)
August: Xenoblade Chronicles X (then or in September)
September: Xenoblade Chronicles X (then or in August)
October: Star Fox Wii U
November: The Legend of Zelda Wii U and Project Guard (maybe)
December: Project Guard (if not November)
Devil's Third should also release sometime in there. I also expect one to two more games to be announced at E3 to be released in 2015. Overall the Wii U has a pretty solid lineup for 2015.
At the Game Awards they were confident that Zelda will release in 2015 and even stated that Star Fox will release BEFORE Zelda. They also showed more footage of Mario Maker, which makes it seem like it's coming soon since it was confirmed for the first half of 2015.
January: Captain Toad Treasure Tracker (Europe)
February: Kirby and the Rainbow Curse (confirmed)
March: Mario Maker
April: Yoshi's Woolly World or Splatoon
May: Yoshi's Woolly World or Splatoon
June: Mario Party 10 (unless they decide to hold it off for the holiday season, but we saw a decent amount of it at E3, and I imagine they made more progress since then)
July: Project Giant Robot (we'll see more during Nintendo Directs and then final product and release date shown at E3)
August: Xenoblade Chronicles X (then or in September)
September: Xenoblade Chronicles X (then or in August)
October: Star Fox Wii U
November: The Legend of Zelda Wii U and Project Guard (maybe)
December: Project Guard (if not November)
Devil's Third should also release sometime in there. I also expect one to two more games to be announced at E3 to be released in 2015. Overall the Wii U has a pretty solid lineup for 2015.
Devil's Third got a rating for Australia yesterday, so I think the release would be during the first half of the year.
Mario vs. Donkey Kong U is also a 2015 Wii U release, but I doubt that is put close to Mario Maker. Perhaps that will only be used as a filler title.
I'd not be surprised if they announced some unknown game(s) within the next 2 months. At any rate, I guess the people doing the marketing planning for the Wii U have much more fun now than a year ago.
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Topic: Predict the launch months of upcoming 2015 Wii U games
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