Wii U Forum

Topic: Pachter strikes again!!!

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Warruz

21. Posted:

Klimbatize wrote:

Warruz wrote:

...and aparently Nintendo likes to wait last second to tell us anything (Hyrule Warriors) as an example.

But...Hyrule Warriors isn't coming this week. It's sometime in 2014 (which probably means at the end of the year). They don't even have the title for the game finalized. That's "last second"? Sounds like people are now banking on miracles from Nintendo to save the Wii U, or looking them as magicians with amazing tricks up their sleeves.

It's not the end of the world if PS4 outsells the Wii U.

I would consider it last minute in an industry where we know things are in the works years in advance. I mean how long have we known about X and Bayonetta 2 and even those are on the short end still, and yes titles do happen to change last minute very often.

I expect full heartily PS4 will outsell Wii U no problem, but I simply grow tired of the inability of those who are "industry analysts" seem to be unaware of the actual industry and how its changing. This is like the PC is dead ALL over again.

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rjejr

22. Posted:

PS4 has probably already outsold Wii U in UK, and I think it's pretty close for the EU. Wii U still leads in Japan though ;-)

I don't think we've heard alot about holiday Wii U sales, have we? Maybe it's doing better now? And PS4 may have a March - April - May swoon like Wii U, though releasing in Japan i Feb and w/ inFamous 2nd Son due out the swoon probably won't be as pronounced. Still, seems like only a matter of when, not if, PS4 surpasses Wii U sales any way you slice them. I don't care anymore though, as long as Wii U games keep coming out for 3 more years, I'm good.

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Jazzer94

23. Posted:

rjejr wrote:

PS4 has probably already outsold Wii U in UK, and I think it's pretty close for the EU. Wii U still leads in Japan though ;-)

I don't think we've heard alot about holiday Wii U sales, have we? Maybe it's doing better now? And PS4 may have a March - April - May swoon like Wii U, though releasing in Japan i Feb and w/ inFamous 2nd Son due out the swoon probably won't be as pronounced. Still, seems like only a matter of when, not if, PS4 surpasses Wii U sales any way you slice them. I don't care anymore though, as long as Wii U games keep coming out for 3 more years, I'm good.

I think it has they had an article on Pushsquare about it selling 500,000 so yeah not sure about Europe as a whole though.

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CanisWolfred

24. Posted:

Mr_Nose wrote:

Want to read something even more entertaining? Check out some of his many wrong predictions...
( scroll down on the link )
http://nintendo.about.com/od/wiiliving/a/Does-Michael-Pachter...

I like the one in 2009 predicting that the last generation of consoles... ever. Seriously, why is he still quoted?

...how's about you show me a guy who is right every single time? He's hired to make predictions - predictions are never 100% accurate. They're just advice for investors to go off of. The only reason he's quoted by people who actually matter is because he's actually right sometimes (and the only reason he's quoted by everyone else is for fanboy bait, to attract people who can't accept that he might have a point despite saying something they don't want to hear, all so they can get views that they entirely don't deserve).

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WaLzgi

25. Posted:

Mr_Nose wrote:

Want to read something even more entertaining? Check out some of his many wrong predictions...
( scroll down on the link )
http://nintendo.about.com/od/wiiliving/a/Does-Michael-Pachter...

I like the one in 2009 predicting that the last generation of consoles... ever. Seriously, why is he still quoted? He's not always wrong, but is he right enough to listen to?

He was wrong about the 3DS doing well at launch too. Everyone is simply mad that he doesn't say nice things about Nintendo

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sub12

26. Posted:

Pachter is pretty much a DB, but with that said, most of what he says is pretty much true (and obvious). But yeah, I don’t think it’s ridiculous to say that the PS4 will outsell the Wii U's lifetime sales by late spring 2014. It’s very much a possibility.

sub12

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Jazzer94

27. Posted:

CanisWolfred wrote:

(and the only reason he's quoted by everyone else is for fanboy bait, to attract people who can't accept that he might have a point despite saying something they don't want to hear, all so they can get views that they entirely don't deserve).

Is this directed at me cause I wasn't trying to get views (what does that even help me accomplish?) or anything just wanted to see what peoples opinions were on the matter.

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skywake

28. Posted:

Mr_Nose wrote:

Want to read something even more entertaining? Check out some of his many wrong predictions...
( scroll down on the link )
http://nintendo.about.com/od/wiiliving/a/Does-Michael-Pachter...

I like the one in 2009 predicting that the last generation of consoles... ever. Seriously, why is he still quoted? He's not always wrong, but is he right enough to listen to?

To be fair quite a few of the "wrong" ones, including last gen being the last gen, were strongly held views at the time. The last gen one in particular is still rattling around and I wouldn't expect it to disappear. The idea is that consoles die out and turn into competing stores that run on generic hardware. We've seen it with phones and Valve already does it so in theory it's only a matter of time.

Problem for that thought is that a new console generation has started now and Microsoft's attempts to tie everything down to a digital store did fail. So quite a bit of a false start and we'll have to wait another whole console generation for it to come true. If it does. That's the direction we are going though.

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WaLzgi

29. Posted:

Jazzer94 wrote:

CanisWolfred wrote:

(and the only reason he's quoted by everyone else is for fanboy bait, to attract people who can't accept that he might have a point despite saying something they don't want to hear, all so they can get views that they entirely don't deserve).

Is this directed at me cause I wasn't trying to get views (what does that even help me accomplish?) or anything just wanted to see what peoples opinions were on the matter.

He's taking shots at websites that use controversial subjects to attract users

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Mr_Nose

30. Posted:

CanisWolfred wrote:

How's about you show me a guy who is right every single time?

Here ya go.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnac_the_Magnificent

But I agree, who can be right every single time? All the more reason not to give him serious attention.

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Warruz

31. Posted:

If you prediction are not more then 50% correct then they are merely guesses.

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Jazzer94

32. Posted:

DarkwingLz wrote:

Jazzer94 wrote:

CanisWolfred wrote:

(and the only reason he's quoted by everyone else is for fanboy bait, to attract people who can't accept that he might have a point despite saying something they don't want to hear, all so they can get views that they entirely don't deserve).

Is this directed at me cause I wasn't trying to get views (what does that even help me accomplish?) or anything just wanted to see what peoples opinions were on the matter.

He's taking shots at websites that use controversial subjects to attract users

OK misunderstanding.

Edited on by Jazzer94

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WaLzgi

33. Posted:

Most analysts are usually wrong, but I can assure you they're not just pulling these predictions from nowhere. They use real data to make their predictions and pick the most probable outcome.

If Nintendo is failing with the Wii U, it's only logical to assume it will continue unless a killer app were released. This does not necessarily mean that the logical outcome WILL happen as the market can be unpredictable.

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Warruz

34. Posted:

@DarkwingLz It's a question of how much data have you used and what data have you used to make the prediction. Clearly as far as Nintendo goes, his method does not work as it's been quite wrong.

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AJ_Lethal

35. Posted:

Protip: console generations are not drag races, they are the 24 Hours of LeMans.

So anything can happen in the next 5-10 years.

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WaLzgi

36. Posted:

Warruz wrote:

@DarkwingLz It's a question of how much data have you used and what data have you used to make the prediction. Clearly as far as Nintendo goes, his method does not work as it's been quite wrong.

Nintendo has defied expectations repeatedly, so they're hard to predict

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sonicfan1373

37. Posted:

I agree with his prediction this time around. However, I believe the Wii U can make a comeback with a well timed price cut (this recent price cut in and new bundles North America and the value bundles in Japan improved sales, but I still think the price is still too high; especially considering the fact that people who really wanted the system could already get the Basic Set for $299) along with more titles released (which are coming this year). Mind you I do not think a price cut will reverse the PS4 craze nor do I think the Wii U will immediately start outselling that system (I do think it has a good chance of outselling Xbox ONE though); however, I do believe a cut in the price will bring the install base on the system to sustainable levels which is more important for Nintendo. Also, if Nintendo does do a price cut on Wii U in 2014 I do anticipate losses for the first year of doing this, but as I have stated this move will increase the install base which makes for better long-term gains.

Edited on by sonicfan1373

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Jazzer94

38. Posted:

AJ_Lethal wrote:

Protip: console generations are not drag races, they are the 24 Hours of LeMans.

So anything can happen in the next 5-10 years.

I don't see this being a 10 year generations.

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Jazzer94

39. Posted:

sonicfan1373 wrote:

I agree with his prediction this time around. However, I believe the Wii U can make a comeback with a well timed price cut (this recent price cut in and new bundles North America and the value bundles in Japan improved sales, but I still think the price is still too high; especially considering the fact that people who really wanted the system could already get the Basic Set for $299) along with more titles released (which are coming this year). Mind you I do not think a price cut will reverse the PS4 craze nor do I think the Wii U will immediately start outselling that system (I do think it has a good chance of outselling Xbox ONE though); however, I do believe a cut in the price will bring the install base on the system to sustainable levels which is more important for Nintendo. Also, if Nintendo does do a price cut on Wii U in 2014 I do anticipate losses for the first year of doing this, but as I have stated this move will increase the install base which makes for better long-term gains.

I don't think price cutting the Wii U again so soon is the answer its more about increasing the amount of games (while also diversifying the library of games) available and getting some 1st party titles that have proper online components like MK8 and Smash Bros.

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Birthday_Boy

40. Posted:

I agree. Considering the PS4 hasn't even launched in Japan yet, it will have a boost in sales. Plus the console is getting more and more popular, as for the Wii U. Wii U users nothing much to anticipate other than indie games (which don't sell systems), Watch Dogs, and a short amount of Nintendo titles.

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