Topic: Why do people think the NX is coming so soon?

His name says it all - his head's in the clouds, dreamin' of bluer skies...

People think the NX is coming so soon because they think Nintendo's hardware situation is terrible and think that new hardware will get people excited, even though the evidence points to the opposite.

Can we just agree that we will see the NX at E3 2016? New hardware is supposed to be exciting!

And here's the big elephant in the room you seem to want to ignore entirely. Not even Microsoft is gaining much traction against the PS4. Lets say you are right and they launch a Wii U successor in late 2016. Lets also for arguments sake say that all of the three platforms continue to sell at just a tad under the rate they did in 2014. Using those numbers in November 2016 the landscape would look like this:

Wii U: 16million
XBOne: 28million
PS4: 45million

And at that point you're saying that Nintendo should just start back at 0 again? When we'd be at the stage where development cycles for some of the bigger games are just starting to end? When the PS4 will be at its absolute strongest? Why wouldn't they just hold out for another year or two and launch when the clock is starting to reset? And what's your idea for them to beat the PS4 anyways? Having marginally better specs? Why would a consumer at that point not just get the PS4 which would already have a pretty deep library?

If you think new hardware will magically solve all of their problems you're dreaming. If you think new hardware launched in the eye of the PS4 storm will gain traction you're delusional.

Wasn't the reason they announced the NX is to explain their mobile partnership deal? They had to mention it so investors could see the future potential.

They didn't, but they're going to next year.

Just because the Wii U has potential for more games doesn't mean it'll take advantage. If they spend that much time making every single little game they could possibly do for Wii U, they'd drag the console's lifespan on too long and people will start losing interest. Besides, every game that they put out in the last days of 8th gen is one less game they can use to sell the NX or whatever next gen console will succeed the Wii U. I don't doubt that we'll see several of these games over the next two years (and I think 2016 especially will be a big year for Wii U where we see some big games like Galaxy 3, Zelda, and Metroid), but they're probably going to have to make a few choices when it comes to the rest of 8th gen's lineup.

Nintendo will probably not do much to address these issues, and that's a big part of the reason why the NX probably isn't going to attract third parties. Nintendo is adamant about not following the rest of the industry when it comes to high end hardware and gritty dudebro games. Don't expect Nintendo to pull a sudden 180 and become Microsoft and Sony, that's not how they do things.

I believe what you said was.....

So I see you agree with me now at least on that point

The thing is, the 3DS is crying out for a successor. There's so much they could do with a new portable that isn't anywhere near possible on the 3DS. All of the things that are holding the 3DS back are entirely to do with hardware. Not the case with the Wii U. With the Wii U for sure the hardware isn't breaking down barriers but most of what is holding it back is image. A hardware revision doesn't automatically solve that problem.

As a Nintendo/PC gamer I don't boot up my Wii U and wish that it had better specs. I don't mind the hardware one bit especially when I've actually booted a game. With the 3DS however as much as I love the thing the hardware is really holding it back. Why couldn't I play Rayman Legends, Child of Light or Transistor on it? Lately I've been playing Geometry Wars 3 from time to time on my PC and it's a crime that it's not on Wii U but why couldn't it be on a Nintendo portable? A portable revision would open up so much more than a slight spec bump for the Wii U.

True, hardware alone won't solve their image problem. But hardware is a large part of it, and dragging out undesirable hardware longer than average is not going to help their image. And when their image for next gen revolves around unification, it doesn't make sense to have one device out ahead of another, they should launch around the same time (give or take a few months). Ultimately it doesn't do much good to keep the Wii U out another year or two after the 3DS' successor launches, it probably won't be getting any big games in that timeframe to justify the less popular ones that would launch at the end of its lifespan and the consumer base would end up dropping the Wii U when they see that its successor is on the horizon (which is already starting to happen now even when there's no confirmation of a replacement yet).

@Bolt_Strike
The mass market doesn't follow gaming news chatter as much as you'd think. Even when it's explained to them they don't see it until it's right in-front of their face. On gaming forums obviously people who were never going to get a Wii U will talk about how they're now not getting a Wii U. But beyond that I don't think the NX announcement is having much of an impact on sales numbers. I mean we can wait and see but I suspect that Wii U sales will be marginally up this year if anything.

And I'm not talking about dragging the Wii U's life out for longer than average here. I'm simply saying that I doubt they'll retire it earlier than average. My guess is that they come out with a Wii U successor sometime between November 2017 and November 2018. Which would be about the average length of time for a home console. Because there is more they can do with it. The 3DS I can't see them pushing out out beyond late 2017 and I wouldn't be surprised if it's replaced in 2016. As for the unification strategy, even if that is the plan that doesn't mean they're launching them on the same day. If they launch the portable first then there will be more they can do in terms of tech for both. Plus what's to say that they don't also link the Wii U into this strategy?

NX is neither a portable nor a home console. It is something else. It was clear from the diagram they showed. They are not retiring the 3DS aka monster hunter device too soon. And they are definitely not launching a new home console for some time... If ever. Wii U is going to steadily increase in sales for a long long time for Nintendo.

and if you went back through similar documents from Nintendo you'll likely find slides that show:

• Wii, Wii U and 3DS
• Wii, DS and 3DS
• Gamecube, Wii and DS
• Gamecube, GBA and DS
• Gameboy, Virtual Boy and N64
• Gameboy, SNES and N64
• Gameboy, NES and SNES
• Gameboy, Game and Watch and NES

..... you get the idea. I mean what did you expect them to do? Show a side that left off either the 3DS or Wii U entirely? At least a year out from the launch of the thing? No, there was no other way they were going to show what their planned "ecosystem of products" would be. There was no other way they could show it.

You are absolutely right. I don't agree with skywake (this time).

Every discussion about the NX:

• So Nintendo is working on a new console
  "yeah, they need to replace the Wii U because that's the one selling poorly"
• What makes you assume that it's replacing the Wii U?
  "because its selling poorly"
• But what would be better about this new system that would make people want to buy it?
  "the Wii U is selling poorly, this new console wouldn't be the Wii U"
• so the main change from the Wii U would be?
  "they'd make it so it wouldn't be the Wii U"
• but why not replace their older platform, a new portable would open up so many new options for content
  "but the 3DS isn't selling poorly"
• well exactly, all the more reason to keep it fresh and relevant
  "but the Wii U, people aren't buying it"

rinse, repeat

I want to reply with something amusing, but it's too depressing for me to think of something.

I think the WiiU will have less than 15 million units sold by next fall. The system's death has already been determined by the market. If they don't launch NX until 2017, that means the WiiU will likely sell only a couple of million units next year and possibly drop as low as half a million for 2017. There is no magical lineup planned for the WiiU from Nintendo to save this system. Metroid isn't coming, Mario is definitely too far off, and Zelda has been delayed distinctly for the NX launch. Nintendo is going to release the lackluster titles they have shown and that's it for the WiiU. XCX is one big game that could have found an audience on PS4 but it's not on PS4 so it'll likely sell 2 million copies at best (and won't expand the user base).

The problem is that the user base isn't growing for them. Sony and MS had no problem selling over 10 million units each last year in their first year. Nintendo has maybe sold 10 million units at this point (2.5 years in).

I think the PS4 will only sell 10 million units this year while the X1 is less predictable due to the price cut (but I'd bet they only sell about 5 million). If Nintendo makes a product that people want then they too could sell 10 million plus units in one year. If they stick with WiiU through 2017, they'll miss a whole year of NX sales while WiiU sputters to a halt.

My strategy to defeat PS4 is to cut out the optical drive and hdd, invest in the GPU and RAM, blow the PS4 away, and offer an optional motion control interface on launch day with support (where Sony's new Move wands havn't even been released yet for PS4).

What is going to happen if Nintendo waits beyond 2016 is everyone is going to decide to just get that PS4. Then Nintendo really won't have any customers for NX.

@BlueSkies

There is so much wrong with what you said. I am going to cherry pick what I talk about. I am pretty sure you will ignore anything I say anyways.

-Metroid and Mario could still come to Wii U.
-Nothing has indicated that Nintendo delayed Zelda for NX. Unless you count a delay announcement to mean it is delayed to a different generation, but that is crazy.
-Supporting the Wii U now and until 2017 isn't about making the Wii U successful, it is about improving their image for the NX. The NX won't reset Nintendo's image, just like how the Wii U didn't reset their image. By supporting the Wii U until 2017 they can prove that Nintendo can support a system throughout its entire lifespan and show that NX would be a good investment.
-You go off assumptions and use those assumptions as proof as why you are right and we are wrong. By looking at facts, others have seen problems with your assumptions but you dismiss them with more assumptions.

So the question I have for you is, how does dropping support for their system early, during a big year for their competitors, improve consumer's perspective on the Nintendo Brand?

Which is why I can't take any of your analysis even the slightest bit seriously. The cost of the components that make up storage in these platforms is small. We're talking around 1/5th of the entire cost of a console like the PS4 for the HDD, ODD, Bluetooth and wireless. Probably a similar proportion of the cost for something like the Wii U which uses a smaller amount of flash storage. It's not the massive burdening cost you think it is and they are essential components in a modern console. Without them there are no downloads, no indie games. Your idea is broken.

You realise that there's a strong chance that this isn't the last console generation right? People will eventually want something newer and better than the PS4 that they are clearly buying. If Nintendo waits this out then they won't be competing against the PS4 at all. Remember when the Wii U launched against the 360 and PS3? Well where are the 360 and PS3 now? I'd be willing to bet that if they did launch after 2017 the same thing will happen with the PS4 and XBOne..... and I think that's a pretty safe bet.

@skywake
Bluray may not cost Sony much-- they make it and they put it in their system to leverage their movie medium. Nintendo doesn't have a mass market movie medium or branded optical drive. This stuff costs Nintendo and MS more and it costs a lot more than 1/5 of their investment. We're talking $100+ when combining the components (500GB HDD, codecs, laser, added cooling).

The whole reason the N64 was able to leapfrog the PSX in power was because the system was cart based. Sidestepping Sony's design is the only way to leapfrog them again in dramatic fashion.

I'm not suggesting this is the last console generation-- it's the closing of the window for Nintendo to get on the bus before Sony and MS claim all the seats. If 40-50 million users have moved on to PS4/X1 by fall 2017 then the momentum will be impossible to overcome for Nintendo. It will be so far into the generation that like with WiiU, it will be out in the cold.

@DefHalan
-Zelda TP and the fact they won't show the new Zelda again is all the proof you need to know it's happening.
-You havn't proven that releasing NX next year will hurt the Nintendo brand. NX is about trying to get 50 million consumers that will never buy the WiiU so I really don't care at all about the WiiU users base's feelings about it. Any Nintendo fan that bought a WiiU has only proven they will buy anything with Nintendo stamped on it so it's all crocodile tears to me. They'll be the first ones in line to buy it once they see Mario or Metroid and their eyes get wet.

Again, continuing support for the Wii U isn'tabout Wii U oowner's feelings, it is about strengthening Nintendo's image. Consumers won't want to invest in another Nintendo System while Nintendo isn't proving the investment worth while. That was a big problem for the Wii U, the last couple of years for the Wii was very lacking and consumers noticed. The Wii U was trying to be the system that was easy to port to and still had the special Nintendo features, it failed to do that. But replacing the Wii U so soon with a machine meant to do the same thing won't fix the problem. Nintendo needs to prove that investing in them is a good move and they have to do that with the Wii U or else the mext Nintendo console will be in worst shape than the Wii U.

The goal is to improve their image before releasing a new console, if they don't do that then the new console will be in the same place as the Wii U. The Wii U was Nintendo trying to fix their image with new hardware, but that isn't what is important to consumers, Software is important to consumers and Nintendo needs to prove their Software is worth the investment of their hardware. Which is going to take time. We are reaching a point where software droughts are nearly gone, lets not release a new console that will oncrease dev times, lets continue with our current hardware and make the Wii U good. Nintendo needs to do something similar to the PS3, just on a smaller scale.

Wrote this whole thing just after waking up... hopefully it makes sense lol