Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@jhewitt3476 Yeah, but that's not sales slowing.

Sales slowing would be "Less sales than last quarter" or "Less sales than this quarter a year ago".

But no, sales aren't slowing.

There is not meeting expectations, and then there are sales slowing down.

One of those is happening and its not the one people keep perpetuating.

Twenty million is steep, but they can make it. I've said from the beginning it will be a close call, but with Pokemon Lets Go and Smash coming and Nintendo having robust "catalogue" sales, it wouldn't surprise me if they pass 20 million. Their software goal will be crushed by the end of March 31st, which will be used extensively if the hardware target falls through.

It is worth pointing out a few things when we're talking about sales for the Switch. Firstly they are up ~4% on last year in terms of hardware so far. If that trend continues they'll move about 15.6mill for this FY. Which as you may notice is under 20mill but there are a number of things to note here.

For one thing last year was kinda unusual for the Switch because it was its launch year. The 2017/18 FY effectively starts about a month after the Switch's launch so the first 6 months have more going for them than for this FY. A lot of early momentum. Something which was amplified by a lot of huge titles releasing on the Switch during this period. By this time last year 8 of the systems 10 best sellers were already on shelves.

By comparison for this FY there wasn't really anything to get the Switch moving early on. Certainly not anything as big as a console launch, Zelda, Splatoon and Mario Kart. The two biggest games for this year are by far Pokemon Lets Go and Smash Bros Ultimate and these games aren't out yet. More than that, both of these games have hardware bundles which is a good reason for people to not buy the console right this second. It's also a reason for some of the super-fans to buy the console again.

I wouldn't be that surprised if they reached their target. At the very least I think they will get close enough that their investors won't punish them. Lets be realistic here, this is the last 10 years and the consoles in that year that moved more than 15mill units, with consoles that broke 20mill in bold:
2007 - DS & Wii
2008 - DS & Wii
2009 - DS & Wii
2010 - DS & Wii
2011 - NA
2012 - NA
2013 - NA
2014 - NA
2015 - PS4
2016 - PS4
2017 - PS4

The Switch just barely fell short of 15mill last calendar year mostly because it launched in March. This year it will be the first console other than the PS4 to break 15mill since the DS & Wii. And even during the DS/Wii era the DS and Wii were the only consoles breaking 15mill regularly.

@skywake I am very much of the believer that everyone seems to be putting too much stock in Super Smash Bros Ultimate being this massive system seller. I see it as a series that really sells to the core Nintendo fan base, whom by large already own a Nintendo Switch. I don't see these same high software sales translate also into hardware sales. Pokemon I think is Nintendo's only real shot at moving huge volumes of systems. Though, Super Mario Party should also help as I imagine many buying that as a second game on the system.

Well there hasn't been a Smash Bros that hasn't been one of the top 10 selling games on a Nintendo console. So it's a system seller whether that fits with your feelings of what kind of game it is or not. That's just how it is. And even if it wasn't I'm not a fan of this idea that consumers form an orderly queue. It's not like the "core fans" all line up first and the "casuals" are all late to the party.

I know anecdotal evidence is kinda useless but for the sake of this argument I think it works well enough. Excluding myself and to my knowledge I personally know of 6 people amongst friends/family/coworkers who have a Switch. Of those only 1 owned a Wii U, 4 owned a 3DS. So it's not as simple as saying that Smash sells to the core Nintendo fan and core Nintendo fans own the Switch already. A fair number of people who own the Switch now haven't had a Nintendo console since the Wii/DS era at least. Equally a lot of "Smash Bros fans" haven't picked up a Switch yet, Smash is their game and they're waiting for its release.

Like when I got back into Nintendo after not being interested in them for quite a while. With the DS. The DS launched in early 2005, I saw it and was interested but not enough to buy one. Mario Kart launched in late 2005 and again I was more interested but not enough to buy one. Then in mid 2006 they released New SMB and the DS Lite. At that point I got one. I was not a "non-core fan" for waiting.

People just want to perpetuate the narrative that Smash isn't as big as it is because....I dunno.

They want 2018 to return to Nintendoom I guess?

I think they can reach their goal. Knowing Smash and pokemon think’ll at least get close to it.

@-Green- I think people also need to realise that their goal is 20m for Fiscal Year 2018, not Calendar Year 2018.

Which means there are 3 months after Xmas to hit that goal.

So we need to start talking about this in terms of the next 5 months, not 2.

So it doesn't stop with Pokemon and Smash. There is a 2D Mario game, potentially Fire Emblem and Yoshi.

Based solely on the amount of people on my friends list who have started Diablo 3 yesterday/today I'd say the sales must be pretty good. Never seen so many people all playing the same game at the same time.

I think we just need to chill and see what happens. Maybe play some games along the way.

Oh, the “core Nintendo fanbase has bought X, so Y won’t happen” argument.

I know the majority of people love to jump to conclusions, but if you use your analytical skills for just one second you can throw out that type of reasoning. I had a discussion during the Switch launch with someone who used the “Only Nintendo fans bought the system. Sales will slow down quickly.” Based on what? “Well, who else is buying the Switch, it can’t be that popular as a mainstream piece of hardware.” Based on what again? “Uh, reasons”.

I think, that in the grand scheme of things, that a small group of people still don’t understand how well Nintendo positioned themselves with the Switch from day one. On messageboards folks tend to... completely misread the market and who exactly is interested in systems and software. That same person who thought Switch sales would gradually slow down also thought MK 8 Deluxe wouldn’t be picked up because it was already played by 7-ish million people on Wii U. “Because Nintendo fanbase.” But these kind of people always tend to forget that this time around more, and I mean A LOT more people are interested in purchasing Nintendo software. Some core rules for almost two years worth of Switch analysis;

• Switch is a far more attractive platform and known platform than Wii U ever was. The reveal, the clear messaging and more importantly it having a stellar Zelda game really pushed the system into mainstream attention.
• Which in turns means that more people are interested in the system.
• People who are interested in Nintendo, weren’t automaticly interested in Wii U. Proven by the sales of the system.
• Far more important factor; software sales. If you analyze the current software performance it tells us that certain evergreen titles are selling like crazy. New Switch owners, which aren’t necessarily core Nintendo fans, purchase several titles titles like clockwork; MK 8 Deluxe currently shifts 400k a month and steadily increasing its sales Total. Seeing the performance of Smash during the past few gens, more copies of Smash get sold every gen. Brawl outsold Melee, 3DS + Wii even overtook Brawl.
• Plus the sales insiders on ResetEra have seen an enourmous increase on Smash and are predicting insane numbers next month. And with Smash being on of those evergreen titles it will sell for years to come.

Smash is gonna sell systems.

this.

But to be fair, those months are the most quiet in the year. Most sales will happen before January.

the end of the fiscal year being the end of the first quarter ???
oh, wait, I already said it like that in an earlier post.....Hurumph !!!

@Therad I'd expect Q4 (January, February, March) to be more than Q1/Q2 though. In fact I think NSMBU Deluxe is January rather than earlier because Nintendo expects Pokemon Let's Go and Smash Ultimate to create Switch stock shortages over the holidays.

Diablo 3 is #1 on the US eShop chart. Smash Ultimate is #2.

We will see, but historically that seems unlikely unlikely.
I also don't think nsmbu will bump the sales of switches. The game itself will sell like hotcakes though.

I'm well aware. I'm just saying why people are saying that, not that they're right.

@skywake @FragRed
For some more anecdotal evidence, only two of my friends have Switches already (both of us core gamers), but I have eight more (all of whom I'd consider casuals) who are getting Switches this quarter due to the combination of Pokemon and Smash. Most want one more than the other, but it varies which, and all of them are interested in both... unlike the myself and my fellow core gamer who have no interest in Pokemon. Smash is a huge casual game, and sells systems well. Not in a vacuum of course, but in an ecosystem that has Pokemon, Super Mario Odyssey, Super Mario Party, Mario Kart 8 DX, Mario Tennis Aces and Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild already, it's easily the game that's pushing a lot of people over the edge on buying a system.

@Therad
I think you're right. The fact that people know NSMBU DX is coming will likely cause an increase in sales over the holiday from people who were on the edge, instead of around when it releases. So while it's a critical game to get out for sales, it's not going to be the game that's getting consoles out the door.

Seeing as I already own NSMBU on WiiU it seems ridiculous to rebuy this on Switch but double dipping is becoming an all to frequent occurence with the Switch.