After a positive start that's prompted some external sales projections and - reportedly - manufacturing to go up a gear, there have been strong early signs for the Nintendo Switch. Of course, firm facts and figures are due from Nintendo on 27th April with its annual financial reports, so we have little time left for wild predictions on things like sales numbers, E3 plans and more.
Macquarie Capital Securities, a firm that's popped up before on these pages due to its regular reports with estimates and projections on Nintendo, has chipped in with some pre-financial results predictions. Takashi Mochizuki of The Wall Street Journal has passed on some nuggets from a recent report including a boost in estimated hardware sales and some loose 2018 release periods for the Dragon Quest series (probably Dragon Quest XI) and, seemingly, a yet-to-be-announced Monster Hunter 5.
It is important to note that these are projections, and Macquarie has been wrong on things in the past; it's in the business of making educated projections, not all of them grounded in absolute fact. There's certainly logic to the hardware numbers and to a new mainline Monster Hunter game, of course - the series has been hugely successful for Capcom on 3DS, and the hybrid nature of the Switch allows for an upgraded title that can also retain its portable allure.
It'll be fascinating to follow Nintendo's (and maybe Capcom's) financial reports - there could be some interesting details to take in.
Comments 70
So hyped for a possible Monster Hunter 5! Can't wait to play Monster Hunter on the Switch!
I believe the next three number spikes will occur when Splatoon comes out, as the Wii U players will be given a reason to buy the switch. When Skyrim comes out, as people will buy it just to have it portable. And of course mega sales when Odyssey comes out.
Monster Hunter on the Switch will be the end of my social life
Pokemon/Monster hunter with a possible Yokai Watch combo are going to shut down entire countries...starting with Japan.
Dragon Quest is already going to ruin social lives as is.
But I read here in the comment sections that it's going to drop off massively in a month or so. These financial analysts know nothing.
Monster Hunter is definitely a system seller, and once it comes to the Switch, consoles are going to be flying off the shelves. (Assuming they manage to restock them in the first place!)
How about a Metroid Prime 4 for Switch as well?
Monster Hunter is definitely coming to Switch.
@WiltonRoots haha yeah & the Crappy wii u port out this month will completely bomb is another prediction as well that seems popular
Monster Hunter for the Switch is a certainty, surely, given Nintendo and Capcom's relationship. Admittedly, Capcom will be watching those system sales carefully, but this encouraging first month can only be good. And once Mario hits at Christmas, those shelves will be empty again. I suspect there will be a bridge MH title, spanning 3DS and Switch, rather like the multi-format Dragon Quest.
if main MH comes to nintendo switch , maybe we can see switch sales flying
@Malpais If only...
Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Xenoblade, Super Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2. I'm really happy I bought a Switch.
Why do I feel like I should be buying a second Switch to keep as spare if I ever see one in stock?
The Switch is doomed guys... Can't you see the writing on the wall?!? They need to sell one trillion units to even stay afloat. /s
@JWesCampbell 2.2 trillion to be precise. Lol...it's just a massive paywall to some overpriced ports. But I'm gonna get one anyway.
If both MH5 and DQ11 arrive on the Switch during Q1/Q2 2018, then that would be insanity.
Mcquaries seems pretty dang optimistic. I don't understand why their original software attach rate forecast was that low to begin with. No platform has ever had that low of a software attach rate ever during the platform's first year on the market. Have any of these analysts ever looked at historical data before??
@JWesCampbell
Are you nuts ?!
What are you talking about ?
Switch is NOT Doomed !!
@Anti-Matter He was being sarcastic.
Also, super hyped for Monster Hunter. Haven't played one since Tri, unfortunately, due to me not owning a Wii U or 3DS.
Mario Kart 8d has been charting above MARIO Kart 8 and 7 on the coming Japanese pre order chart for some time so this is a safe bet.
Those predictions don't seem too wild.
Also, I've never played a monster hunter game !
I'm a big grown man would I enjoy it?
What am I saying? I enjoy running around pretending to be an elf...
This NX have so much potential.
@KIRO in some ways, I like mh more then dark souls due to portable nature. Just big boss battles. Great game that needs to be on switch.
@duducamargo mine too. Let's play together to fight the loneliness
I can't wait for this system to get a Monster Hunter. Imagine fighting a Tigrex in glorious HD!
Hopefully MH5's monster intros are as epic and cinematic as the ones in MH4.
maybe MH on Switch won't be ugly as hell like on 3DS?
Switch needs a port of Drive Girls, frigging awesome game
@Desy64 haha sounds good. Been a while since I hunted with friends
@duducamargo memba MH3? Killed my life literally hunting is sooo fun. Only thing that killed it for me after 400h was not getting those rare drops. Sooo annoying
@KIRO Hard to say without knowing wbat kind of games you like, but it's certainly not childish. It actually takes a lot of patience and perseverance. I played 3 on 3DS, liked it well enough but it would be SO much better on Switch.
@JasmineDragon thanks . I hear so much positive hype about the game I'm very curious to play it. I'm not sure I'm prepared to slap $50 down so I hope there is a demo or some such to try out.
@Nintendoforlife If 3 spikes, why can't I find a Switch for my wife? So far it's been 1 continuous spike (as in nintendo sells out the day they arrive on shelves). I wish there had been a good way for Nintendo do have known it would be this popular, but alas I couldn't have predicted this so I just hope they can find a way to produce them faster. (assuming they're actually trying to find a way to produce them faster)
@KIRO If the concept of hunting huge monsters and using strategy/working as a team with online players to bring it down appeals to you, go for it. (Pretty sure there's a single player mode too, though. There was one in Tri, anyway) I was addicted to the last one that I played, but haven't had a system to play the more recent games in the series until now. Monster Hunter was actually a pretty big factor in my decision to buy a Switch.
Honestly, I still think Macquarie's projected Switch attach rate is still a bit too low. I think it will closer to 3.5 - 4.0 rather than 2.8, but that's just my prediction.
I still think Nintendo will ship around 12-13 million Switches in the current fiscal year ending March 2018, so that's a tad bit lower than Macquarie's hardware sales forecast.
I try not to pre-hype myself on stuff, but I still feel in my gut we're going to hear about MH coming to Switch at E3, and this unconfirmed piece of information lets me know that the scent is in the air at least, and that's good enough for me. MH? Two true control sticks?? HD??? On the big screen and on the road???? **Calm... breath... breeeeath...** -_-
MH on Switch would give me a reason to play MH again. I played Tri for over 100 hours but, when Ultimate came out I couldn't justify starting from scratch. Never played on the 3DS so, MH5 would be a perfect time to dive back in.
JP Morgan is really bullish on Big N too, in part because "assessments of convenience seem better than expected". Got that right!
@KirbyTheVampire I'm generally a solo gamer but maybe I need to expand my horizons somewhat. Thanks for your comment though....good intel.
I read 'analyst' in the title.
Nope.
A Switch exclusive Monster Hunter would make the console much more tempting for me. It's probably going to be a long wait before the game is released outside of Japan though.
Neat, but it'll be difficult for Nintendo to reach those figures without actually manufacturing and selling the damn thing. As it is, Switch has been an asbolute no-show at retail and online since the initial launch wave. Nintendo said that they wouldn't be repeating the mistakes of the NES Classic with Switch, and that everyone who wanted one would be able to get one. I think the very next thing they did after sending out that statement was to laugh hysterically.
Been keeping my eye on Dauntless for a long time. If Monster Hunter V is really that close though, no need.
@Fred13 I wouldn't focus on that too much. We're not even 2 months into launch, i'm sure the stock amounts will steadily rise.
If monster hunter switch happens.... I need to quit my job lol. Oh no with the switch i can take it with me, nice! Haha.
@David_Dudeney
Hahah i laughed really hard when seeing your reggie pic. Nice!
@Nintendoforlife Easy for you to say, your wife's birthday isn't right around the corner. I here there will be new stock this Friday with the release of Mario Kart. I'll give it a try, but if not I'm not sure what I'll have to do.
But what does Michael Pachter have to say???
@Fred13 If it's really important you might even consider being there extremely early.
@Ralizah or getting chased by a savage devijho.
@Nintendoforlife I have to be to work at 7am. Best Buy is really close to work and doesn't open until 10am. I can probably get about at about 10am so if the stock lasts at least until opening I'll be able to get one, but if you have to be in line for an hour before the store opens then I just can't do that
@Fred13 Hmm I hope it works out for you and you Wife. Worst case scenario you can go ahead and order from a reseller.
I would recommend this place if you want to pay extra: https://www.amazon.com/gp/help/seller/at-a-glance.html/ref=dp_merchant_link?ie=UTF8&seller=A3H89ADJHTH9SN
I haven't played a MH since the PSP days.
Can't wait to play a portable HD Monster Hunter!
I would love the manga crossovers with Monster Hunter to be in HD 2.
Woah, with the Switch you would never stop playing Monster Hunter even more, since you can connect to the TV or take it anywhere in HD!
Monster Hunter 5 + Proper Pokemon games for Switch + Animal Crossing Switch = Euphoria
Monster Hunter is going to be on Switch......the Japanese sales are too good so far for it not to make it. Pokémon is a pretty good bet too, and when those are announced and released sales will spike. E3 could be huge for the Switch but even if it is just an average E3.....the known games are going to keep it selling well in most regions through 2017.
MH on Switch would be brilliant - they would appeal to both eastern and western crowds at once!
@KIRO It just depends if you like facing over 100 monsters in a game where you can work as a team to take out them or even play solo with cat companions that you can customize and have do things to take down them, but its basically nothing but fighting tons of boss creature's, gathering, or bounties on smaller creature's. Oh and lots and lots of dressing up cat's.
MH5 with voice chat is what I need!
How do you not put Monster Hunter 5 in the main headline? Even if it's big in Japan, that's a pretty specific prediction.
I really want a Switch, but thus far there is only Bomberman that I want for it (got Zelda on Wii U). I'm trying my hardest to wait until Splatoon 2, which will be my personal system seller, but with Bomberman, Street Fighter, and Mario Kart all out before then I might need to bite beforehand.
My only two issues ATM to be fair is that Bomberman is still ÂŁ50, and that I don't mind waiting so I can hopefully get a console that doesn't have the Joy-Con issues. I'd rather all "faulty" ones be sold off first.
Monster Hunter 5 would be fantastic, really hoping for an announcement from Capcom at E3!
We've already seen the Nintendo Switch flying.
Uhh...Monster Hunter didn't help the Wii U, so I doubt it would spike a rise in Switch sales over here in the US...maybe in Japan. Other than that, I'm still one that's not sold on the Switch yet...still (besides Zelda and Mario Odyssey...the latter will probably come out in 2018 as it will probably be delayed). I'll get a Switch when I hear Animal Crossing (not the Amiibo Festival or gimmicky one), a proper Kirby Platform title (not the dreaded Canvas Curse or Rainbow Curse) and some other goodies from 3rd parties that aren't also out on PS4 or XBONE. I DO see the sales surpassing the 14 million mark though, as the system is doing very well, and with Splatoon 2 coming out this summer, it'll have more spikes...it's just the shortages right now that are taking that number slowly to rise. The Shortages are what needs to be fixed, as this is something that nintendo seems to constantly do with their consoles and even accessories...Wii System, Wii remotes, 3DS, DS, Gamecube Memory Cards, N64 Rumble Packs and vice versa...once the system stays on store shelves, then nintendo will make the money, and we'll see if the system continues to sell well. Nintendo should have known with the hype on the internet right after they revealed it...actually, they should have known at how many people were excited when they just announced NX as a name.
Monster Hunter was one of the factors that helped the PSP be a major success in Japan; having the next major entry as a Switch exclusive would be a huge boost (although I expect a possible knock due to the more developed mobile gaming market and the higher price of the Switch compared to the PSP).
I also wonder if the Switch would capitalise on being the successor to the Vita as the premier VN platform in Japan.
@JLPick Switch stock sells out pretty quickly after it arrives. I don't see large spikes due to games like Splatoon or Arms coming out unless Nintendo increases stock greatly just before they come out.
@JLPick Mario Odyssey is a 2017 game. The game is practically already complete.
@Action51 I'm sure he'll say they are going to be doing great and be doomed at the same time!
@westman98 Just really hoping that they don't decide to delay it. It's a good game for the holiday season, and the only game (besides Zelda) that is getting me interested into the console...and the only game that will have me want to purchase it until I see some more goodies at E3 that aren't already on the PS4.
@roboshort It'll probably take a while. I remember when the Wii came out (I just happened to walk into Gamestop during the time the postal carrier came with a few...the cashier asked me if I wanted one, and I bought it), the console was impossible to find for a year or so, and it was a year before it actually stayed on a store shelf.
@JLPick
Unlike Zelda, Mario games pretty much never get delayed.
The last 3D Mario game, Mario 3D World, was announced at E3 2013 for a December 2013 release. The game was released in November 2013.
The one 2017 Switch game that I would worry about being delayed, at least in the west, is Xenoblade Chronicles 2.
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