News Article

Research Firm Predicts 12m 3DS Sales by 2012, 70m by 2015

Posted by James Newton

But won't beat the DS

IHS Screen Digest has predicted the 3DS will sell well in the coming years but believes the original DS line will still reign supreme as the top-selling Nintendo handheld.

The company's research suggests 3DS will shift 11.6m units worldwide by the end of 2011, compared to the DS's first-year sales of 13.1m. Screen Digest estimates the new handheld will sell 70m machines across the globe before 2015; the DS had sold 91m at the same point in its life cycle.

Explaining why it believes the console won't overcome its predecessor, Screen Digest believes that the system's sales will be eroded by the increasing sales of smartphones and tablets, but highlights Nintendo's strategy of giving users an incentive to take the console around with them every day.

This engagement strategy, alongside 3D graphics, camera and video, is key to Nintendo competing with upcoming devices from Sony and also from non-specialist smartphones, entertainment devices and tablets, which offer a legitimate alternative to handheld consoles.

Do you think 3DS can beat the sales success of the DS line?
The DS launched in 2004. By the end of 2010, the console had sold 136m units worldwide.

[via mcvuk.com]

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User Comments (26)

J-Forest-Esq

#2

J-Forest-Esq said:

I don't think the 3DS will top the DS. It might come close, but it won't beat it. Probably. Maybe. It's just a bit too expensive.

Deviant_Mugen

#3

Deviant_Mugen said:

The 3DS hasn't even been on sale for a month (in NA) and these kinds of predictions are already circulating? Geez...

King_Boo

#4

King_Boo said:

depends how long the 3ds stays as nintendo's current console. the ds will probably stay in production into next year, so somewhere between 7 and 8 years, if the 3ds lasts for over 10 it will sell more.

DrCruse

#5

DrCruse said:

Since they are selling it for 2.5 times the cost of production at an incredibly high price of $250, I doubt it will sell very well at least until there is a price cut.

BlackShyGuy

#8

BlackShyGuy said:

Assuming that they decide to make new versions, 3DSLite, XL etc. I would think is very possible because most people go for the newer versions of consoles. Or they get awesome games like, Monster Hunter, KH or stuff like that.

pixelman

#9

pixelman said:

The 3DS might become the new Monster Hunter console since it'll be much cheaper to develop for than the NGP. If that happens it'll absolutely boom in Japan. Monster Hunter sells systems over there.

It'll be interesting to see what Capcom ends up doing. If Nintendo's smart they'll give Capcom a little coaxing, hehe. Hopefully we'll know tomorrow. :3

jerryo

#11

jerryo said:

it all depends on software. keep bringing great gundams, metal gear solid, monster hunter, some hot western style rpgs, sci fi FPS, furious hack and slash action, a new ninja gaiden, and ofc dragon quest and pokemons and you're good to go!

OldBoy

#12

OldBoy said:

Hmm.Wish I could see into the future like these guys , course I'd just get next weeks lottery numbers rather than tell people how much of a paticular product will sell (or not) but maybe thats just me!
Seriously do people actually get paid for writing this kinda sh*t

Supremeist

#13

Supremeist said:

I think Nintendo should loan me 40 dollars.... I need a new game.... haha. I can only imagine the money. Nintendo deserves it, though. Making a new generation of gaming isn't easy :P

I think Nintendo should have atleast 60m sold by 2012.

timp29

#15

timp29 said:

Sounds like Nintendo has done it again. Sony and Microsoft can talk themselves up and talk Nintendo down, but they would kill for figures like those.

Funem

#16

Funem said:

If they drop the cost of the games from £40 in shops to £25-30 they will get more impulse buys for the console. Before someone says its cheaper online, not everyone shops online.

NintyMan

#17

NintyMan said:

I think the 3DS won't beat the DS in overall sales, but it'll come close. Then again, I could be wrong.

Rob_mc_1

#18

Rob_mc_1 said:

I think the 3DS sales will depend on the number of iterations of the console. The number of DS/Lite/DSi/XL sold does not reflect the actual install base due to people owning multiple Consoles.

http://www.nintendolife.com/forums/ds/what_color_ds_do_you_have

Nintendo already said there wont be a Lite version because they already used what they learned in the 3DS. they only other iteration I can think of is a 3DS XL. Then again only Nintendo would know.

Wheels2050

#19

Wheels2050 said:

I wonder how they have taken into account increases in purchases due to new games coming out, since that is somewhat of an unknown factor (e.g. a killer app might sell far more or less than predicted).

Only having gotten into consoles in the last couple of years (I'm a PC player at heart) I don't really have a feel for how these figures relate to other systems.

IanUniacke

#20

IanUniacke said:

Does anyone else remember similar predictions happening at the start of the wii's life span? I recall predictions something along the lines of first year massive sales for wii and by the 4th year ps3: 120 million, 360: 80 million and wii: 50 million.

This sounds like the same kind of navel gazing prediction if you ask me. Lets not forget the original DS sold only 6 million in its first year.

Shade0fTheChaos

#21

Shade0fTheChaos said:

I think Predictions should wait until the E-shop and "Heavy Games" are launched and see how Nintendo manages all that stuff

Tony3DS

#22

Tony3DS said:

@ 20. IanUniacke.........I love that "navel gazing prediction".

My prediction 3DSphone, August 2012 (10m first day sales) you heard it hear first!

Traxx

#23

Traxx said:

The high price is killing it atm. The 3DS does not have the killer sales it could have. I'm very sceptical about the 3DS' success, altough I want it to succeed. Maybe it just has a slower start like the phat DS. But for this time, Nintend missed a chance to have a real impact sales-wise.

1080ike

#24

1080ike said:

If it was cheaper, then it would be selling a lot faster than it is right now, which is still something Sony and Microsoft would kill for.

Treetop

#25

Treetop said:

Nintendo better hurry up with E-shop,good games like animal crossing 3ds, 3d video capture and ect. if they say they have the experience well....HURRY UP NINTENDO!!!!!!Page rumbles Anyway the Ngp is coming soon and it has better battery life and processing as much as a ps3 and Nintendo don't have the E-shop yet !!! I want the classic gameboy games!!! NOW!!! :)

Hardy83

#26

Hardy83 said:

The 3DS will never come remotely close to selling as well as the DS. In fact, I don't know if any system will sell as well.

As much as some of you hate to say it, the handheld market is becoming too saturated.
As much as you want to say smartphones aren't gaming pads, it doesn't matter. It's taking "non-gamers" away from purchasing a gaming handheld.

While this isn't bad by any means. The market itself is growing, thus it's kind of a win for everyone, even Nintendo. I just don't see any current or future handheld devices every reaching DS numbers.

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