'The Zelda Effect' Causes Game Sales To Drop This May (Europe)

Only bought games worth 30 € the last 2 month, so I guess I'm part of the "problem" (and only at least 25 years - and beyond old - games).

No surprise. Saturation kicking in. Switch doing extremely well for year 8. PS5 and Xbox stalling on releases and not a great gen for them IMO. I think 2025 will mix things up with Switch 2 and some pro editions from the spec twins. 2024 feels like a bit of a coasting year. Good but not stellar.

I tend to buy into Xbox and PS at the end of the lifecycle. I can't justify the early year costs along with my Nintendo following. 🙂

@AfroMario i have about 300 hours in it, and at the end i would say it is of course a great game, but at the same time disappointing. I was raging at people first saying it is a DLC, but in truth, there is an element of it that does just feel like it is a large DLC. the weakest aspects though are the voice acting and elements of the story line. BotW just has so much of a more coherent and engaging plot line/narrative. I will be happy to see a new art direction and concept on the Switch 2

Basic fact is, times are hard these days. It's not rocket science and I wouldn't look too heavily into the calibre of gaming at the mo lol. Still, industry analysts need to try to convince their masters they know what they are talking about...like replicating game X and mirroring game Y will somehow give folk more spending power.

@smithyo slightly disagree but each to their own. On the new art direction, I'm stumped. With the depths and the sky islands added this time, I really cannot guess where they will go next. Maybe a link to the past type approach?? It's Nintendo, who knows.

@smithyo Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree with you on that one bub. People are different and I respect that. We will have to see how they approach their "new" direction when they release. I personally would like an experience to that of windwaker but I know I will not get my wish.

Aren’t consumers cutting back as a whole currently anyway?

@AfroMario People seem desperate to chime in with their own flavor of disappointment whenever it is even mentioned, but at the end of the day Tears of the Kingdom is an amazing game, absolutely one of the most incredible games ever crafted. Playing it with Japanese subs feels like an epic anime, and after every temple you clear, seamlessly leaping into the sky back down to Hyrule, you realize just how singular TOTK truly is.

@Duncanballs same. Only Playstations I've owned have been the 3 and 4, both towards the end of their lives. I've always been a Nintendo on day-one kinda guy.

I saw an article on another site earlier about how console sales are down, too. Not only has the cost of living hit hard, but it's not as if there have been any new consoles for several years at this point.

I do have an Evercade VS-R pre-ordered for next month, though.

Nice links to pushsquare there, is the author getting a cut?
Am puzzled as to why there’s no paper Mario link tho.

@Chibi HookShotMediaTruth

That was already more than a year ago? Uh oh.

@WhensDinner
Yep, I know the sites are affiliated but am still slightly puzzled why there’s no Paper Mario link.

@smithyo I can't say I agree with that take on BOTW. One of the problems with open worlds games is the plot urgency takes a backseat to freedom, which in turn can affect the overall weight of a story.

But that's just me. Open world games fail to engage because I lose interest due to freedom. It also makes giggle when I think about the absurdness of it all.

Like you introduce a end of the world threat, and said threat just sits there while you're goofing off for hours. It can be quite easy to forget there is even a story sometimes with open world games.

I did this quite alot with BOTW. Even still, the more interesting story of BOTW already happened 100 years ago. I found that story more engaging than the one BOTW told.

BOTW personally to me was just alright.

@smithyo Zeltik said it best on YT: a disappointing masterpiece. EoW looks like they learned a lesson, though, and are trying to do less stuff, so Zelda's not dead to me yet.

I didn’t help as I spent the whole month playing stellar blade and now on NG+ so probably won’t buy anything this month either!

Maybe I'm missing something here, but how does "Zelda Effect" affect last month?

Another thing to consider is that a lot of players are going digital. I occasionally buy a physical copy but buy more digital these days

I still don’t understand what the ‘Zelda Effect’ is…

Is the idea that TotK’s success was so great it created some sort of temporal gravity bomb that has absorbed the sales of every game precisely a year later?

Or is there something else? As a hypothesis, ‘games aren’t selling well now because one game sold well 12 months ago’ seems to need some rigorous testing before being branded an ‘effect’.

Can’t believe GTA V is still consistently top 5…….. Although I would literally triple dip purchase if rockstar were to ever port it to the switch as well.

@DripDropCop146 “plot urgency takes a backseat to freedom”. Good take: I don’t think I considered that. I still loved both games and I see and appreciate your words.

@Spider-Kev @Maxz May 2024 was down from May 2023 in terms of total game sales in part because TotK sold extremely strongly in May 2023 whereas no game had such a strong launch in this year's May. It's probably barely down from May 2022 if at all. 17% down isn't that much anyways.

@BTB20 But why would the fact it was released in May last year have a significant ‘effect’ on the sales of May this year? If Zelda where released in April or June last year would that mean that May sales would be higher this year but April/June sales would be suppressed?

When I financially justify game purchases to myself, I primarily consider how many games I’ve bought over the last few weeks/months (as well as more general financial restraints). I don’t think I’ve ever based the decision on how many games I purchased precisely 12 months ago. Certainly no more than 11 or 13 months ago. I can’t even remember what games I purchased 12 months ago.

Perhaps for consoles it might make some difference. If I bought a shiny new console over the Christmas period last year, I might feel less in need of another shiny new console this year. But for games? The thought has never crossed my mind.

If ‘sales being cannibalised by a game released 12 months prior’ is a well documented phenomenon then I’m happy to be convinced, but applying this idea in this case to this specific game and calling it the ‘Zelda Effect’ seems somewhat… arbitrary.

Doesn't surprise me at all. Even with spending down, really hard to beat the absolute behemoth that was TotK.

@Maxz You’re kinda overthinking it. They’re just comparing May 2024 sales to May 2023. This year’s don’t match up because last May, one of the biggest games ever was released.

If you compare box office results for the month that Avengers: Endgame was released with the same month a year later, I bet the box office was down too. Because one of the biggest movies ever had been released.

@Synecdoche I’m definitely overthinking things, but I’m also genuinely confused by the use of the word ‘effect’ to describe two things that seem completely unrelated. For something to have an ‘effect’ on something else, there must be a direct relation between the two.

I don’t dispute that game sales were low this year (when TotK wasn’t released) and were high last year (when TotK was released) but saying that Zelda is the reason they are low this year implies some sort of relationship that… I simply can’t see.

It’s not difficult to imagine sales being low last year and… sales also being low this year — or being high both years.

Stating that sales are lower than the previous year is fine. Stating that sales are lower because they were high last year is quite a different statement. And if the latter isn’t true, it really doesn’t make sense to use the word ‘effect’.

TL;DR: I genuinely don’t know what effect Zelda is having on current game sales.

EDIT: To be fair, the article doesn’t really argue that game sales are ‘low’ this year because of Zelda, just ‘lower’. It mostly uses the word ‘drop’, which is comparative rather than absolute. So I have to eat a little humble pie and work on my reading comprehension.

…I still find ‘Zelda Effect’ a slightly convoluted way of describing lower sales this year though. The presence of Zelda last year seems less notable than the absence of comparatively big hitters this year, though they’re both equally responsible for the ‘drop’ in sales. The fact that sales for a given month can be so heavily skewed by a single game makes a good argument for comparing sales against wider data sets than just ‘the year before’.

@DripDropCop146 That's funny. I remember when OoT was current, one of the jokes going around was Link relaxing and fishing in the shade while Zelda is screaming "HURRY IT UP!" in the background. So that's been a minor criticism since the series went 3D, as the games have opened up.

@Maxz
Totally agree. The phrase "Zelda effect" is practically click bait.
All this article says is "It looks like game sales are down compared to this exact month last year, but relax, it's just because Zelda released this month, last year inflating the numbers."

Too much Zelda influence is not good in my opinion.

I mean, as much as I would love paper Mario to dominate the sales charts, realistically that’s not likely to happen

What did they expect from Endless Ocean anyway, full price especially when similar shovelware titles would be cheaper even if Endless Ocean is a quality series that entry isn't the best either.

Another Code for the value or effort put in sure, same with if they remade Sin and Punishment or another series.

The Zelda effect is a silly thing to say and doesn't apply to all games. Mario/Zelda/Pokemon for sure have that appeal. The rest don't always do that and are more for Nintendo fans or people seeking other genres or experiences.

Not all Mario games sell well especially the RPG ones those are more big fans, compared to the platformers or party or kart series any idiot knows that with past series as a reference and it's not like oh no not Alpha Dream's last game. Those staff that are working on the new one good on them. Those not and found work elsewhere well makes sense.

That was just bad timing and most moved on from 3DS. If it was on Switch it would have sold better anyone can tell that.

Just because I bought a 3DS in 2020 doesn't mean that many people using their 3DS were still going to buy a new game or see them on shelves I barely saw 3DS games on shelves and even then I didn't see that game at all on there at all. Any I bought up in JB, EB or Second hand stores were very different games.

PM TYD is a good game but at the same time how many care for it, remember it, are intrigued by it compared to long time fans, same with Mario Rabbids, they tried the first one gave it a go, did or didn't sell it and left it on their shelf or because digital the circumstances of that.

The types of games they are says something to audiences besides the marketing, it's the effect of the games, even if good games, not just insert Mario on the cover. Or nostalgia.

I think it's safe to say Link really is Nintendo's second mascot now.

I honestly buy games when theyre on sale in my retailers i got mario rpg for 28 euros
Links awakening for 30 skyward sword 35 ... The one time i spent a bunch was for tears of the kingdom collectors edition ... But usually i dont rush to buy a game day one

Way to apparently ruin game sales for the entire month of May, Zelda. We're all very disappointed in you

@speedracer216 Yeah… I still can’t quite get it to feel natural. Rephrasing ‘Zelda caused a spike in sales last year’ as ‘Zelda caused a drop in sales this year’ just seems a weird way of grasping causality. Not necessarily wrong, but… like, odd.

We normally treat past events as constants (to be measured against) and current/recent events as variables.

If an athlete underperforms in an event one year due to poor health, poor form, injury, or just increasing age, then we normally attribute that to… poor health, poor form, injury, or just increasing age. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this phrased as “the athlete’s descent down the leaderboard this year is being blamed on them winning the competition last year”.

Cost of living is why, has nothing to do with the types of games or quality of games, people just can't afford to spend money on video games as much because doing so may mean not eating food for an entire day, it really isn't that hard to figure out.

Video games is just not on anyone's priorities list right now, in fact entertainment in general. Global conflicts kicking off left right and centre, companies and jobs closing down left right and centre, cost of EVERY SINGLE ITEM known to man is going up and y'all talking about video game sales.

We're living in the most uncertain times since just before WW2 and y'all talking about video game sales.... Just let that sink in for one moment. 😒.

Strange, you mean to tell me games sell less during years of inflation and an ongoing war? Not to mention A.I. simplifying jobs and rapidly raising unemployment rate?
Well, call me chocked and astounded.

It's a weird world that this sort of thing isn't a given and also people struggle to understand it. Pretty basic concept that very few properties could hope to match a mainline Zelda title's sales.