Topic: Wii U is safe from the NX!? Seems to be true

You said the 3DS wasn't slowing down, I posted hardware numbers. Then you said hardware numbers meant nothing and I posted software ones. And now the obviousness of the fact that they're on the other side of "peak sales" still isn't enough because apparently the sales need to be falling off a cliff. I think it's clear that the 3DS is past its peak. If you could point to a date then I'd say "peak 3DS" was around late 2013. That's all I've said or suggested here. I'm not saying that there's a massive drop off, all I'm saying is that they're on the right hand side of this curve with the 3DS:

I always think it's kinda wierd that people think the 3DS has a lot of third party support. I mean in Japan it gets a bit of love for sure but the same is kinda true for the Wii U. So I'm not sure what your point is there. And I don't mean to be dismissive of the 3DS because I love my 3DS, got one pretty damn early on in the piece. But you have to admit that the releases have slowed considerably. I count about half as many major release for 3DS as there is for Wii U this year. That's not doom and gloom, it already has a great library and it's a great system. It's on the other side of the curve now. Peak Wii U is probably not quite here yet. Sometime later this year would be my bet.

Well, Haru's got a point. The fact that less people are buying the 3DS right now doesn't mean the millions that bought it in the last few years somehow ceased to exist. Those millions are still there, buying games.

Still, it's obviously making less money than last year. It's only natural. Nintendo has been focusing on the WiiU.

Pokemon B/W 2 launched over a year after the launch of the 3DS and ended up being one of the best selling games for the DS. The 3DS is at that point but if DS games could still sell that late then the 3DS is definitely not "dead". That said, people aren't really buying the 3DS for new games anymore. People who got one early? They're ready to move onto something else. If a great game comes out people will buy it but most of the best stuff is behind us. And because of that Nintendo will likely release another portable console sooner rather than later.

What seems clear is that this lifecycle, as shown in the graph you posted, is as much determined by Nintendo as it is by natural market forces.

Once they've released all of their big sellers, the console tends to decline.

I really don't see how the year with Mario Kart and Smash Bros can't be the Wii U's financial peak. Especially since mainstream next gen's slow first 12 months undoubtedly helped the Wii U garner attention from gamers.

I mean, the lineup this year just doesn't compare. The only big AAA releases are Xenoblade, Yoshi, and Star Fox maybe. Fatal Frame, Mario Maker, and those tech demos just aren't seen as big AAA games... because they aren't. I really don't see the Wii U charting upwards unless Nintendo announces, like, 3-4 huge AAAs at E3. And even then, stuff like Metroid and Paper Mario only sold 1-2.X million on Wii so :/

Well if they release Zelda and a 3D Mario (as well as many other things) next year, that might equal last year?

I mean, critically, sure, that could happen, but sales-wise those series haven't touched Mario Kart or Smash at their respective peaks. They just have greater mainstream appeal, it seems.

TL;DR Not yet. Give the Wii U another 2.5 years.

Personally, I don't want a new Nintendo home console so early. Yeah, the Wii U's struggling, but it hasn't been out that long. I mean, it's still got plenty of life left in it and there are still a bunch of ideas I know developers can get out of the dual screen idea. I don't want to see it go until it's done all it can really do or until the tech can't handle what Nintendo wants it to do anymore.

As for a handheld, I'm still rocking a standard size 3DS and I know it's starting to strain with Smash Bros. and Monster Hunter 4 having to basically cut half of the 3DS's functionality to merely run... I want a New 3DS, but I also feel like this will be another DSi situation as the N3DS has come out rather late.

Because it hasn't happened historically. Usually, peak year or two after Mario Kart and Smash. Those two generate momentum like nothing else in Nintendo's stable, but sales tend to get better in the few years following their release, not worse. Mario Kart and Smash both released in early 2007 on the Wii, but 2008, 2009, and 2010 were all better in sales.

2007 - 15m hardware units shipped worldwide
2008 - 20m
2009 - 23m
2010 - 17m
2011 - 10m

They both released in 2008, not 2007.

Right, my mistake. Same still holds though. 2009 and 2010 shipped more hardware (and probably software) than 2008.

You forgot Splatoon. I mean we're in the eye of the storm for Splatoon so it's hard to tell but it could well be as big as Mario Kart. And you say "only" but then list a bunch? Please. Last year the Wii U had a couple of big releases for sure, but this year? It has those releases in its library and it has a bunch of new big releases. Splatoon is probably as big as Kart. Xenoblade is probably as big as Bayonetta. Yoshi is probably as big as DKC. Last year had Smash? Hard to beat for sure but this year we have Star Fox and the faint scent of Zelda on the horizon to carry us through.

I think it's pretty rich for someone who in this same thread was saying that the 3DS wasn't slowing down to argue that the Wii U is. How on earth is the 3DS matching its 2013 releases this year? Because I can't see it. Then you come in and say that the Wii U which is getting a greater volume of content this year is slowing down? Really, if 2014 was the Wii U's peak then 2013 was definitely the peak of the 3DS.

I listed 3 notable releases. Three, four if we count Splatoon. I also dropped Kirby, not for no reason. And please don't make me explain how Splatoon won't sell 4.5+ million copies: ~50% of the install base! New IP, worse reviews, less brand recognition, decreased word of mouth: you name it.

I don't care much for equating games, but 'Yoshi's New 2D Platformer' is already smaller than Tropical Freeze, just from what they've already shown. It is also being developed by a subset of a subset of Nintendo; not an entire, highly talented, independent studio with a staff around 100, so keep that in mind.

And I didn't say the 3DS was getting as many high profile releases as in 2013. I just don't see many Wii U games for 2016 and on that aren't Kickstarter stretch goals or annualized Activision party games.

That's right, keep your head in the sand. I didn't mention Kirby, I didn't mention Captain Toad or Devils Third. I just mentioned the big releases which does include Splatoon. Also I did say that we were at the eye of the storm with Splatoon, you may be right in saying it's nowhere near as big as Kart. But don't rule it out entirely. It's not a small release, I'd argue that it's biggest killer app the Wii U has as of now. People constantly cry out for New IP from Nintendo, they've delivered and it's creating quite the buzz.

I'm not saying it'll set the world on fire. I'm just saying that knitted Amiibos in a box with a game developed by the dudes behind Kirby's Epic Yarn? Combined with a game that doesn't have the one thing (stupidly easy) that held back that game? Probably as significant as a sequel to Donkey Kong Country Returns.

No you didn't. But you do keep saying that the 3DS hasn't peaked yet and the Wii U has. Which is literally the same thing.

Ill decide whether the Wii U is safe or not until after E3 because we dont know what new Wii U games might be coming out but thats just me.

How? The game hasn't even released yet, you have no idea how many levels the game contains, or what other content is present.

Good-Feel is just as much as a subset as Retro Studios is...? Good-Feel has about the same number of employees... Anyway, I fail to see how that changes anything. This is just BS.

Just from the gameplay they've shown it looks like a pretty dull 2D platformer. Whereas Donkey Kong was at least a visually diverse 2D platformer.

No, I was criticizing your interpretation of the data provided. The data that does not support the conclusion that the 3DS has peaked. Because I had statistics class.

If you look at the platforms in terms of Nintendo first party titles, then it's obvious they are already shifting development over to the next big thing. That's because there are barely any games announced for 2016 or later. Zelda U, the Wii U's last big anything, has been delayed indefinitely, meaning that it will release sometime between January 1, 2016 and the December 25 following the NX console's launch date. Yeah, it's pre E3 and all, but most publishers always have something announced for the next year; Nintendo hasn't done that.

Mainly, the only AAAs announced for 2016 and on on the 3DS are niche JRPGs and on the Wii U, the aforementioned Kickstarter stretch goals.

I'm not that excited about a feel-good (huehuehue), leisurely stroll through a non-threatening looking world, but I didn't think anyone would be able to accuse YWW as looking dull. I think it's very visually interesting and a great art style. It's the most unique looking platformer since... well, since Kirby's Epic Yarn.

I can't see Nintendo deviating from the past too much with a new handheld following with a new console a year or two later. The Wii U isn't the Virtual Boy and I cannot see them planning to dump it when they've just invested in a new IP that is clearly catching on and looks to be driving hardware sales.

It's quite possible they'll be more cautious with a new handheld (if that's what NX turns out to be) with an eye to some kind of converged software platform with a future console for more streamlined development but not totally abandoning the 3DS lest that launch doesn't pan out. Not really any different from what they've done before.

I'm not sure if you're serious or not at this point. You do realise that when I say that the 3DS has peaked I'm not saying it's now selling zero units right? Because I don't think you understand. All I'm saying is that more than half of the 3DS units for both hardware and software that will be sold have been sold. On the other hand I'm not sure we can say the same for the Wii U yet given that it's still on a (slight) upwards trajectory. And given that I'd assume they'll release a 3DS successor first. It's nothing more complicated than that.

I think you're jumping to quite a few hasty conclusions there. Zelda U missing its 2015 launch target doesn't automatically mean that it's being delayed till November 2016 to launch on the NX. It may mean that but there are a whole pile of other possibilities. The NX may not launch next year, the NX isn't necessarily a home console, the Zelda delay may not be that long. You may end up being correct but a whole bunch of things have to line up for you to be correct there. The odds aren't in your favour.

As for 2016? Well it's worth pointing out what we knew of 2015 before E3 last year. Splatoon, Kirby, Captain Toad, Star Fox and Zelda U were all announced at the E3 direct last year. Yoshi we knew about earlier but we first saw gameplay footage at E3. Xenoblade we knew about for quite a while because it has been main the "hey, look what the Wii U can do" title. We're in basically the same position now so the fact that we know so little about 2016 doesn't mean much. Speaking of, what do we know about the 3DS' 2016 releases? You're confident that they're better so if that's the case I assume you know something we don't.