Blu Ray the latest disk based media turned out not to be the runaway success DVD was, and broadband continues to get faster and cheaper, so will this be the last disk based gen.

Though for this to become a reality I think broadband access and just as important speeds will need to improve quite a bit between then and now, I mean if you where to download a full wii game on current broadband speeds it would take a while for most people I would think.

No, games will continue to get bigger and bigger. Can you imagine trying to download Metal Gear Solid 4? Even on a good connection, that would be quite taxing, and that's assuming everyone has such a good connection. The game is massive. And even if the connection isn't a problem, hard drive space would be unless all systems are PS3-priced, which would be an awful move for the games industry.

Somewhere down the line it'll eventually happen but I doubt any time soon.

Broadband did take years longer to take off than originally thought, and guessing that current gen consoles have about 5 to 7 years left, at least that's my guess, will broadband be fast enough by then to download a a game over 10 GB's or even blu ray size?, well apparently the Americans are supposed to see an increase in the spread of broadband backed by government(or at least that is my understanding), but I'm still not sure either way, if they have the speed then I think it would be great just to download games instead of going to the shops, on the successor to the wii what ever they decide to name it.

When you consider the significant number of console users who haven't hooked their systems up to the Internet, you quickly realize that we'll have at least one more generation of optical media. After that, it's all going to downloads.

This generation was really the first generation where online interaction was the norm rather than the exception. But it's still a relatively new idea for the console world. As such, the consoles were ill-prepared for downloadable games. The 360 and PS3 at least had massive storage solutions, but they still pigeon-holed downloadable games as small-time stuff. (Microsoft is going some interesting directions with these games, though.)

The next generation will see the consoles deployed with the necessary hardware to make downlodable games a first-class citizen. The aim of the generation will be to phase out traditional media and refocus on downloads. Microsoft will probably continue down their existing path. Sony... it's actually not clear if there will even be a PS4. The PS3 is technically capable enough now, but it's sort of too much too soon for a market that doesn't want to pay for it.

No, games will continue to get bigger and bigger. Can you imagine trying to download Metal Gear Solid 4?

Games are also getting more and more expensive. Something has to happen to stem the costs or companies are simply not going to be able to keep up. As it is, most of the AAA blockbusters are little more than total conversions of Unreal and Doom. Just funding the artwork saps up a massive chunk of cash, to say nothing of the voice acting, motion capture, orchestrated music (!) and other expensive aspects that go into creating a blockbuster game these days.

I'm sure that games will continue growing in the future, but the pace will probably slow for a while during the downloadable games transition. This will be something that the market NEEDS in order to maintain profitability.

Perhaps that is true, but as long as there is competition, consoles need huge games to distinguish themselves. How many PS3s would have been sold if not for a game like MGS4? Probably a lot less. And while it's arguable if Nintendo needs these people or not (I'd say they do), I know quite a few who got a Wii primarily for Brawl and/or Galaxy, both quite expensive. Without highly expensive flagship titles, systems don't sell as well, so the expense probably does pay off.

I'll qualify this with my usual disclaimer: Business and economics are foreign concepts to me. I am just idly speculating. I'd of course love it to go all download because it would probably mean cheaper prices, and it's more convenient. Of course, it would mean horrible things for retailers and those employed by them, but that won't mean a thing to console makers.

I believe that, while we probably will shift to only Downloading games at some point, i believe it won't happen for a long time. I reckon the way things are currently working will continue for the next-gen consoles and maybe a couple after that. I also have a feeling that this could start to happen faster due to the recession if continues for much longer, which could cause publishers to release more games as downloads than discs due the lower costs of digitally distributing games. I also reckon that a full swing into digital downloads will happen for stuff like Music and Films one day.

I wonder what things will be like when the shift has gone into full swing.

@Terranigma - I agree. I just don't want it to happen cus I like looking at my game collection on the shelves.

@Lode Runner
Same, having games as Discs in their cases just looks better than going through a lot of files. Takes more time but you can show off your games better.

No.

I think the balance we are at is where things will stay for a while. Big games will probably be made by big name companies with booklets and cases and top $ prices, while indy companies will go the downloadable route to save some coin and increase profitability. Id say there will be a slight shift percentage wise towards downloadable games, but as others have said the internet speeds required will hold it back for a long time. Every customer would probably need to have 100Mb/s for downloading 4.3GB games and at the moment south korea and japan would be the only countries close to having this kind of technology available to the majority of its population.

Fully downloading won't work. At least not for a while. There are still many areas of the world (including developed countries) that do not have broadband connections readily available. I know many people who live in rural areas who can't get cable internet service simply because the houses where they live are spaced so far apart that the cable companies don't want to run the lines to have them as potential customers. So they have to rely on DSL or a satellite connection if they want high speed internet access.

Then there is the issue of bandwidth limits. Many countries in the world, you pay for monthly bandwidth. For example, I read an article that in Australia, the maximum bandwidth you can have per month is 20GB. So... if you download 20GB before the end of the month, you don't have internet till the start of the next month. These limits would sorely hinder most modern games, which are often measured in GB in terms of size. With 20GB of bandwidth, you could download one full size PS3 game a month, and if the download somehow fails right before it completes, your out of luck.

I think this current generation of gaming would stay for around a decade, given the comments here.
On DLC, I think such would be possible when light computers and quantum memory come to existence.

Here in the UK, we have really slow internet. It wouldn't be popular here since everyone would loose their patience with large online downloads. (unless they have cable internet, it is a bit faster)

I wouldn't mind full Digital Distribution (not DLC, which is just addon content) for handhelds, and if the PSP2 was digital and had native homebrew, it might be the first non-Nintendo product I buy.

Evantually over time we will see a DLC only console. But not the next generation. First off we don't have Swedish/South Korean 100Mb internet connections, and stores like GAME, GameStation, GameStop and EB would hate the idea since you can't sell or trade your games back in, so their market you go downhill.