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Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

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JaxonH

@Ralizah
I disagree. You could look at any one piece of evidence and say oh, that doesn’t mean much on its own. But when you see a series of evidences and supportive truths that all point to the same thing... it’s not so easy to write them all off.

I don’t know what happens “all the time” with “Nintendo fans”. I didn’t buy into any Grinch leak. I certainly didn’t buy into any Metroid Prime Trilogy port either. In fact I was the one saying that it’s almost certainly FALSE. So don’t lump me in with others to try to make me sound like some gullible conspiracy theorist. When the data suggests otherwise, I say so.

All those things mentioned, I said they were bogus. Of course I wanted Metroid Prime Trilogy. But I still said that was a bogus rumor.

But this... this is legit. This goes beyond rumor. This is based on evidence and reasonable logical conclusions (is it really so hard to believe this particular series would come to the hottest new portable system on the market, even after negotiating an appearance in Smash Bros, taking one of only 5 coveted advertisement slots? Is that really such a leap of logic?). And I don’t really care what others say, I come to conclusions based on the evidence I see, and the evidence I am seeing points toward the game coming to Switch. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. Time will tell. But that’s the conclusion I am drawing from the evidence, until further evidence is presented. And if further evidence is brought forward that suggests otherwise, I very well could change my mind. Nothing is set in stone, my beliefs and opinions included. But right now based off what we have to go on at this very moment the evidence suggests it’s at least as likely as not.

Edited on by JaxonH

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Ralizah

@JaxonH Fair enough. I hope you're right. The lack of portability was my one major issue with Persona 5. It's a very segmented experience, so it'd be great as a portable game that you pick up and set down whenever you feel like it. Sony has completely abandoned their portable hardware line, so the Switch is my only real hope for that to happen.

If it does get announced, I'll put my PS4 steelbook up for sale on that same day.

It's also the one series that would get me to purchase a future Sony home console. I bought my PS4 for Gravity Rush 2, Persona 5, and Silent Hills. The Gravity Rush franchise is dead. Silent Hills will never happen. Persona is the only thing keeping me from completely abandoning that hardware line. Sony has just become much too western for my liking.

Edited on by Ralizah

Ralizah

JaxonH

@Ralizah
My fear is that the game’s producer is too loyal to Sony. Not legally obligated, but willfully. You notice in Japan there’s a very devout Sony following, developers included. A lot of games that have traditionally stayed on PlayStation are not necessarily bound by legal contracts but simply the producer’s desires to only make content for that platform. My fear is, that loyalty will lead them to either attempt a Vita version (which I deem unlikely, but I still want to account for the possibility), or simply redump the game on PS4 as a “complete” version.

My other fear is, the ones who partook of that survey are all Sony fans, who will naturally tell Atlus “we want it on PS4, we want it on Vita”, which could lead to Atlas believing that’s where everyone wants to play these games, not realizing it’s a minority loyalist following telling them those things. The average Joe doesn’t want to play those games on Vita. But the diehard loyalists will tell them they want it on Vita over Switch every single time, by virtue of the fact it’s made by Sony, not because it would provide a better experience.

Those are my fears. And seeing the Dancing games on Vita reinforces those fears because it tells me Atlas just doesn’t get it. When you have communication with the loyalists of a fanbase saying “we want it on PS4 and Vita”, and you have a game producer who has a natural inclination toward Sony, you can end up in a cycle where they hear what he wants to hear. And that’s what I’m afraid of.

Thankfully, Joker’s inclusion in Smash tells me they are at least in negotiations with Nintendo, and while they may be a little skittish about investing in a new platform without a track record for support, perhaps Joker’s inclusion was Nintendo’s way of tempering those fears within Atlus.

I’ll say this. If Nintendo negotiated his inclusion, and didn’t work out the game coming to Switch, they are going to have a lot of angry fans for getting their hopes up with such a wildcard character that has so few ties to Nintendo. Whether justified or not, that will be the result. And surely Nintendo knows this. Cloud was justified by multiple Final Fantasy games appearing on Nintendo hardware, and they did eventually secure FFVII among multiple other entries. Fans didn’t expect much because Wii U was in the dumpster. Most rational people understood that any potential benefits gained would likely be seen the following generation. Snake got in because of Twin Snakes on GameCube, and Simon Belmont is just an iconic character. Unfortunately, I don’t think Konami understands what a major opportunity they are missing by not bringing those franchises to Switch. And it’s quite possible they are, that those games are in development and we just don’t know about them yet. I can’t imagine they would put Simon Belmont in Smash and Konami wouldn’t at least try to capitalize on that in some way, shape or form. It makes no logical sense whatsoever. And that’s why I do believe Konami has something in the works even if we don’t know about it yet. Because that company would have to be ran by stoned monkeys to not capitalize off Simon in Smash.

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We’ll see how things turn out. I have to believe Nintendo wants this game on Switch though, and I struggle to believe they would designate one of these 5 precious slots in exchange for nothing. If they are not willing to bring the game to the system they would be much better served using that slot to negotiate a different game from a different company. From a business perspective, that’s what I’d be doing if I was running the company.

Edited on by JaxonH

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EvilLucario

You know, I'd like to turn that argument on its head with SMT V. I have no idea why that's Nintendo exclusive since that's not being funded/published by Nintendo at all, unlike something like Bayonetta 2/3 and The Wonderful 101. Wouldn't it make sense to make that multiplatform to increase the amount of exposure that series gets?

I'm all for exclusives to entice consumers (it's why I literally bought a PS4 JUST to play Bloodborne), but some cases of exclusivity just make me scratch my head. Like, if given the opportunity, wouldn't you want more places to get people to buy your game?

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Ralizah

JaxonH wrote:

My fear is that the game’s producer is too loyal to Sony. Not legally obligated, but willfully. You notice in Japan there’s a very devout Sony following, developers included. A lot of games that have traditionally stayed on PlayStation are not necessarily bound by legal contracts but simply the producer’s desires to only make content for that platform. My fear is, that loyalty will lead them to either attempt a Vita version (which I deem unlikely, but I still want to account for the possibility), or simply redump the game on PS4 as a “complete” version.

The latter is what I'm expecting, personally. It's not unprecedented (PS2 got P3: FES after the vanilla release of P3), and I very much agree, as I said earlier, that Atlus probably wants to keep the Persona brand on Playstation devices. I don't think they're contractually bound to do so, they just don't seem to like having franchises cross ecosystems. Notice that once SMT went to Nintendo, it disappeared from Playstation consoles entirely.

And (this is, of course, PURELY speculative) they might not want to do something that might harm their reliable relationship with Sony. They're notoriously competitive with the Playstation brand, after all.

There is a lot of demand for Atlus games on the Switch, but I think that enthusiasm is mostly generated by Western Switch owners. I'm sure Atlus' American staff are well aware of this, but is the message coming through on the (let's be honest, much more important) other side of the pond?

It's kind of a similar situation with Falcom. Ys VIII sold great on Switch... in Western territories. In Japan, it hardly made a dent. There was no enthusiasm for a late port of a previously Playstation-exclusive franchise. So did its success over here even register in the Land of the Rising Sun?

Ralizah

kkslider5552000

My assumption for both is that because everything is on everything nowadays, they saw that being an actual exclusive would endear itself more to the company and fans, since being exclusive is sometimes an actual selling point.

But I think it's equally likely that it just made the most sense and mostly haven't thought it was worthwhile to port them to systems that might not get much of an audience (either because the audience is mostly on one system or because they're not gonna have the same marketing push as on launch). I think people forget that ports take money to make and sometimes some successful games don't actually sell that well when ported. The timing also makes sense, since I believe main series Persona games have been more or less exclusively Playstation since Playstation 1 was the JRPG console. And SMT is probably on Nintendo nowadays because they have the successful Japanese handheld systems. And both have probably built up a newer audience specifically on those platforms so they've stuck with them.

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JaxonH

@Ralizah
Idk. Money is money though so I would hope that it registered. More more Japanese games are being made based solely off the predictions of western sales nowadays.

I do believe they are naturally inclined to leave the series on PS. But I also believe outside influences and change in circumstance can impact those natural inclinations, and with the loss of PS Vita as a pillar of substantial, reliable revenue, Atlus will be looking to fill that gap. This is where Switch comes in, and even disregarding the Joker Smash announcement, it’s the logical choice to fill that revenue stream.

This is where I think change in circumstance could lead to a change in policy.

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Knuckles-Fajita

All this talk of Persona 5 and now the Witcher 3 and some weird Assassins Creed compilation just have me wondering.

Did no one learn anything from expecting Metroid last year? Or Eurogamer swearing that Pokemon Stars was a consumer product? Or Dark Souls 3? What about Destiny 2? Call of Duty?

What about Mario Maker?

All these games rumours said were coming, with no evidence or basis in reality, and people got disappointed.

I reckon y'all should start reeling in expectations.

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JaxonH

@JackEatsSparrows
We aim to please!

In case you haven’t been around the forum long enough, you’ll see in time that we get into some pretty heavy debates, ranging from video game theory, mathematics, religion, etc. But... we never discuss politics. That’s a sure fire way to lead discussion into the dumpster.

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JaxonH

@subpopz
In a rational, free market world, there isn’t any reason not to.

Buuuuut.... we live in a world where emotion affects decision making. And I’m not talking about developers who simply don’t have the financial means to bring their game to all platforms. That’s a monetary-based decision. I’m talking about the developers that choose not to because of the emotions they feel toward a certain platform. And this is far more prevalent than I think most people are willing to acknowledge.

I say drop everything on everything. If a game sells poorly enough that future ports are unjustified, then fine. Don’t bring any future entries. Totally understandable. But aside from that, drop everything on everything. Take all the Nintendo exclusive games and drop them on PS and Xbox, like Octopath and No More Heroes and Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate, The World Ends With You, Civilization VI, Ultra Street Fighter II, Shin Megami Tensei V, etc. But in return, take all the PS/MS exclusive games and drop them on Nintendo, like Persona 5, Nier, No No Kuni 2, Street Fighter V, Yakuza, etc

And be done with it.

Let funded exclusive games and the unique benefits of each platform be the selling point. I want to be able to play any game on any system I choose. I think competitor platforms have a vested interest in keeping as many games off Switch as possible though (well, it’s not even an “I think”, it’s an “I know”, because of course they do, they’re competitors, duh), or ensuring it receives a delayed release, because so many people would rather choose that version. So it’s in their interest to wipe that choice off the table, or at least scoop up timed exclusivity to trick people into thinking there is no choice available. Which... that’s a whole other discussion there. Something that pisses me off to no end. Like... they are so afraid of consumers being given a choice, that consumers won’t choose their version, so they castrate choice from the marketplace in order to force the consumer’s hand. The way I see it is, if your platform is so good then you shouldn’t be afraid of consumers being given a choice. People will naturally choose it because it’s the best place to play a game. It’s something Sony, for example, frequently boasts about, being “the best place to play”. But they don’t really believe what they’re saying because if they did, they wouldn’t be signing so many timed exclusivity contracts, eliminating choice from consumers. And everyone does it to everyone, it’s just that nowadays with Sony as market leader and Switch as the new emergent threat, that’s where we’re seeing it happen the most now. Next generation when Microsoft becomes a viable threat again, we will start seeing it between Sony and Microsoft much more than we are now.

And that’s where I feel we could use some regulation in the industry. Enough with the timed exclusive nonsense. If a company wants to out right fund a game as an exclusive for their platform, totally fine (Bloodborn, Bayonetta 2, Sunset Overdrive, etc) But there should be laws prohibiting timed exclusivity contracts and/or contracts which specifically exclude certain platforms. It’s one thing to fund an exclusive, it’s another to pay a company money to not release a game on a competitor’s platform. Not that I think we’ll ever see anyone admit to that because the publicity would be horrible (the one example I can think of is Rise of the Tomb Raider, which they paid money to specifically not release on the PlayStation, and the backlash was predictably a fiasco). But... ya. I think we’d see more equilibrium if such practices were prohibited. I see it as foul play that perverts the natural order of free markets, where a product is made and consumers vote with their wallets on what they want. And I’m not targeting any specific platform or company here. Because practically all the bigger companies play hardball like this nowadays. It wouldn’t stop the emotional aspect but, it would at least level the playing field a little bit more.

Edited on by JaxonH

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@JaxonH Yeah I stick around for the community mostly

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HobbitGamer

Knuckles-Fajita wrote:

All this talk of Persona 5 and now the Witcher 3 and some weird Assassins Creed compilation just have me wondering.

Did no one learn anything from expecting Metroid last year? Or Eurogamer swearing that Pokemon Stars was a consumer product? Or Dark Souls 3? What about Destiny 2? Call of Duty?

What about Mario Maker?

All these games rumours said were coming, with no evidence or basis in reality, and people got disappointed.

I reckon y'all should start reeling in expectations.

I learned to temper my expectations after years of waiting on an Western release of Mother 3. Or, ya know, Beyond G&E sequel (it’s not real). 😂

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JaxonH

@JackEatsSparrows

I would certainly hope people learn their lesson with regard to most of those examples.

And what is the lesson to be learned?

1 don’t automatically believe everything you hear

2 even when there is evidence to support it, make sure you’re only believing in the possibility

And I agree 110% people should learn their lessons from those things, most of which had no basis in actual fact or logic or evidence.

People should also learn their lesson with the countless leaks and rumors that have proven to be true. ESPECIALLY those based around actual evidence, credible sources and/or logical deductions made from first hand observations and facts. Things like LA Noire (true), Smash 4 DLC (true), Dark Souls Switch (true), Monster Hunter going to PS4 (true), etc etc

And what lesson should be learned

1 don’t ignorantly stick your head in the sand and disbelieve everything no matter how much evidence points towards it being true or you’ll end up cleaning even more egg off your feathered face

2 just because you believe it’s likely and possible does NOT equate to championing something as 100% fact

There are some here who I don’t think they learned from ANY of those lessons. In fact I would say some here can’t discern the difference between rumor and logical deductions based on verifiable evidence. If some Joe Schmoe came out of the wood Work and said “Persona 5 is coming to Switch” I’d be preaching the very thing knuckles is saying. But that’s not the case here. This isn’t regurgitating rumors some nameless Joe Schmoe pronounced on the Internet, this is probability analysis based on logical deduction and reason, based on things we can see with our own eyes and hear with our own ears. Of course I wouldn’t expect someone like him to think critically, or even understand the difference.

Edited on by JaxonH

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ReaderRagfish

If you buy into leaks, you're pleased when they end up being true and disappointed when they're proven false.

If you don't buy into leaks, you're pleased when they end up being true but still not disappointed when they're proven false.

Edited on by ReaderRagfish

Still waiting for Atlus to make Snowboard Kids 3

JaxonH

@ReaderRagfihs
That’s only true if you take it all as 100% certainties, and then associate your hopes with what you [irresponsibly] believe to be certain.

If someone is too immature to separate logic and reason and what they hash out as statistically probable outcomes from unrestrained hope, hype and excitement, then maybe they should follow such a rule.

But to anyone mature enough to separate hope from likely outcome, and doesn’t believe in absolutes, who can draw a line between believing something is statistically probable and investing all of their hope-eggs into that basket... it’s not a problem.

I have never been disappointed based on probability analysis, because I never take a leak or reasonable, evidence based conclusion as 100% certain (though I have, at times in the past, got excited for things that didnt pan out, that was the fault of me being irresponsible with my expectations running rampant, which is a separate issue). But I’m not going to defy logic and rational analysis just to prevent my “poor dear little hopes from being crushed”... screw that nonsense. We’re adults here. If I think something is probable, if I think something is likely... I’m not going to pretend otherwise just because I’m too emotionally insecure to realize it’s not a given, (therefore don’t get your hopes up like it is)

It just goes back to the “Believe the worst case scenario of everything so that you’re never disappointed” as being the most insecure and immature attitude one could possibly have. I intend to believe reality, and my mind will make statistical judgments on the likelihood of probable outcomes based on evidence I see. And if I see something that registers as being a probable outcome, I’m going to believe it’s a probable outcome. Doesn’t mean I’m going to start making threads saying “Get hyped! Game XYZ is coming!”. No. Just means I recognize it as a having a likelihood of occurrence, based on the analysis in my mind.

Of course, all of this is also based on the fact I don’t treat it like a binomial choice in the first place. There is no “buy into leaks” or “don’t buy into leaks”. There is only “buy into the specific ones that seem probable and supported by credible/reliable sources and/or evidence... and don’t buy into the rest”. And the ones you buy into, you’re not buying into them 100%, you’re buying into a probable outcome. Same for reasonable, evidence-based conclusions. Persona 5 on Switch was not “leaked”... nobody “leaked” it. It was a reasonable, evidence-based conclusion people have come to based on the facts given. Now. If someone so chooses to get their hopes up and start getting hyped over that, they’ve got no one but themselves to blame if it doesn’t come through and their hopes are crushed. As for myself, I simply recognize it as a probable outcome. And that’s important for people to do. Because some people might be planning to go buy another system for this game and they’re going to be kicking themselves later if this gets announced in a few months. So by recognizing the probable outcome they can make a better choice. By the same token, if it doesn’t pan out, simply holding off a few months isn’t going to hurt them. This is a perfect example of why it’s irresponsible to stick our heads in the sand regarding leaks and evidence-based conclusions. We have a responsibility to analyze them logically, come to reasonable conclusions, and ultimately ascribe a likelihood of the event occurring. Doesn’t mean the outcome will occur every single time (it’s just an analysis of probability), it just means that we are accounting for the possibility, and what the likelihood is that it occurs.

Edited on by JaxonH

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Cobalt

Are you ready ? ^^

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Edited on by Cobalt

Cobalt

Grumblevolcano

I wouldn't go as far as saying all 5 are 3rd party characters though. I think there'll be some 1st party promotional characters like Edelgard (Fire Emblem Three Houses) be part of the Fighters Pass. If it does end up being 5 3rd party characters, Nintendo must be getting desperate about 3rd party support.

Edited on by Grumblevolcano

Grumblevolcano

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GrailUK

Well, if they have sorted out their issues with larger capacity cards, it could be we start to see more grandiose games coming in 2019. It was a little disappointing to hear they got delayed into next year, but hey, we are past 2018 and it wasn't so bad lol.

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Knuckles-Fajita

Nice to know Im getting crap for how Im approaching a situation from a guy who writes essays telling people they should be excited about various things.

Either way, if these games come, cool. Congratulations I guess. Lets enjoy them. You can say Im wrong and... good for you? I dont really care if Im wrong with "egg on my face" since thats not my concern.

Id rather be wrong and not hyped than hyped and disappointed. I dont see that as a bad thing, especially since I dont really take stock in what people feel towards a potential announcement.

But there is no harm in telling people to maybe temper their expectations.

Edited on by Knuckles-Fajita

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