Topic: Why Nintendo Should Launch in 2016

I want to begin by saying that no one should get upset that Nintendo may launch the NX in 2016, the fourth year of the WiiU's shelf life. Microsoft launched the 360 in the fourth year of the original Xbox and there was no outcry from Halo fans (basically all MS had at the time). The original Xbox had sold almost 25 million units by the end of 2005 while the WiiU will likely end 2016 with under 15 million units. This matters because it's a measure of how important the platform is to Nintendo as a source of revenue and simply as a platform to reach consumers with their games. Nintendo wants a console that sells 20 million units in the first 12 months again. Nintendo needs real profits again. Fans cannot fault the company for launching one year earlier. They have seriously lost hundreds of millions of dollars funneling money into software to keep WiiU owners happy despite the bottom immediately dropping out on sales in January 2013 (under 60k units for a brand new console). Nintendo has lost their butts for you over the past 2.5 years while everyone in the industry has been calling for them to pull the plug. Nintendo isn't screwing anyone over by launching the NX almost a year and a half from now.

And now, why NX should launch in 2016:
1. The WiiU's future is dim. I'd be surprised if it reaches 20 million units at the end of 2017, its fifth year on the market.
2. The WiiU's present is dim. Third parties have almost completely abandoned the console and some developers are openly admitting that they are awaiting information from Nintendo on NX instead of looking to develop for WiiU. A great deal of this has to do with the limited memory bandwidth of the WiiU, the fact it's PPC architecture, the user base stalled out, and the tablet controller only increases the cost of ports (to a system where they will sell the worst).
3. Nintendo needs a platform to sell their games to consumers. It is the hardware that supplies the user base to allow a company like Nintendo to sell 30 million copies of Mario Kart. Without a massive user base, Nintendo can't reach mass market numbers with their software. The software doesn't sell the system-- the potential of the system's hardware sells the system.
4. Nintendo could sell 15-20 million NX consoles in the first twelve months. MS and Sony just launched new consoles and sold almost 30 million units combined. I would call that a veracious market appetite. Nintendo is missing out big time on those consumers.
5. There is no redesigning the WiiU to lower the cost (to bring it to a lower end consumer market). The Gamepad is integral to the OS; the tablet drives up the costs massively, and even if you patched the OS to launch a tablet-less sku, you would still have the video broadcasting and receiving technology built into the hardware. As Iwata said on the subject over a year ago, Nintendo has to start from scratch with new hardware. The WiiU's design has cornered them in a phone booth.
6. September 2016 is the 20th anniversary of the N64 and Mario 64. This is important because currently Nintendo is failing at market psychology. They need the poetry of this date to tie the importance of the NX to the importance of the N64 (how the N64 totally changed the industry). It would also make it easier to communicate, "hey, we have a free roam spiritual successor to Mario 64 at launch."
7. Clowns to the left and jokers to the right-- The PS4 is digging its heels in for a long stay with the launch of Morpheus and new Move wands while there are already rumblings that MS might launch a new console as early as 2017 or 2018 because of their disappointment (and massive losses) in the X1. With Microsoft looming on the horizon with yet another console launch (likely all-digital) and their standalone HMD product, Hololens; it makes it risky for Nintendo to wait beyond 2016. Sony is racking up the sales at the register and if Nintendo doesn't launch next fall, tens of millions of potential buyers fly out the window. Nintendo just cannot wait until 2017.
8. Zelda-- It's simply perfect timing. They would have had Zelda ready by this fall and they intently pulled it from the schedule. You don't delay such a key title if you're not doing exactly what they did with Zelda 3, Star Fox 2, Dinosaur Planet, Eternal Darkness, and Twilight Princess. The new Zelda and a new free roam Mario are the perfect one-two punch for a strong launch with core gamers. The WiiU lacked powerful releases at launch (or even at all for a year and a half) and Nintendo lost a ton of road because of it.

tl:dr
I don't see how the NX will replace the Wii U if it is a handheld

Lol. Let it go. Please. Let it go. You're assuming the NX will be amazing and we don't know anything about it. Nintendo is actually making a profit and claims there are more unannounced Wii U games to come. Jeez, man. Relax.

And Microsoft isn't losing money constantly... That's Sony. Literally PlayStation and a few other fields are keeping them afloat. That's not even a shot at Sony. Its just truth. Microsoft isn't gonna kill the Xbox One soon.

I always hoped that the Xbox One and PS4 would have similar lifespans to the Xbox 360 and PS3 (i.e. the next consoles released around 2021). Whether that happens or not, who knows but there's no chance the Wii U is lasting that long (it would've been nice for that to also have a similar lifespan).

Actually, the Xbox Division is still in the red. A few years ago, it was merged in their financial report with other products like Surface and Microsoft Office, and as a whole that has been black, but we don't know how Xbox is doing by itself. It is pretty much guaranteed though that it has not been profitable as a product/service from 2001-now.

Sony bleeds money, but the Playstation brand is doing well. The PS3 was a disaster that wiped out the PS2 profits entirely and didn't start making any money for half a decade, but their strategy with the PS4 has been very conservative and profitable. They're fine.

And of course, Nintendo lost some pocket change for a few years. They only have like 10 billion dollars left.

plus assets

Never before has there been such blowback from Nintendo fans against the premise of a new console. Project Reality, Dolphin, Revolution-- everybody in the community was hyped for a bigger, badder, awesomer Nintendo console. Why does every discussion about NX have to include WiiU owners saying, "we don't know if it's a console." Before Iwata confirmed the existence of NX, fans were saying Nintendo wouldn't affirm a new console until 2016 or 2017. And before Miyamoto said the next Mario will show off the next gen controller, fans were saying the next Mario would be on WiiU. It's been denial at every turn like a Monty Python gag.

As I said in my original post, Nintendo needs a console that sells 20 million units in the first year.

Sony allegedly has about $5-6 billion left. They have lost huge sums of money in recent years-- about $3 billion over the past two years alone. Nintendo has lost hundreds of millions from their losses but they have also seen their stock drop to pre-Wii levels (which cost them as well). Nintendo is said to be down to about $4-5 billion left in the bank with about $3 billion in investments. If Nintendo were to sell to Disney, they could possibly pull a $20 billion bid (based on projected future value of IPs and games), but that won't happen thanks to the Universal deal.

Microsoft was allegedly making money for the first time ever from their games division near the end of the 360's life, but now they're paying people $100 to buy the X1 (to try to prevent a third party situation like we've seen on WiiU I suppose). Whatever MS made from 360 (Xbox Live), it couldn't possibly make up for the billions in losses with the first Xbox.

Nobody "needs" a console that sells 20 million in the first year. The Wii, PS2, and PS4 are the fastest selling consoles of all time and none of them did. The fastest was the Wii, which hit 20 million sales in its 13th month.

Well after reading your argument I agree, maybe it would be best for them to launch the new platform next year. But we have no idea what it is yet and they won't talk about until next year. IF they are going to launch next year I would presume our first look at it would be at CES 2016. That in and of itself is something no one would expect.

I can see them revealing details on QoL or even mobile at CES, but I think they would save a new dedicated hardware announcement for E3.

20 million is a rounded number. All three of those consoles came close to 20 million in the first year. There is no reason Nintendo can't again have a Wii type success in terms of rapidity of sales.

Sure it would be nice, but it's not "needed." Even 10 million in the first year would probably make investors happy.

Also, Nintendo is currently at an operating profit, so hyperbolic commentary about how many millions of dollars it's losing is a little out of place as well.

I actually agree with most of the OP's thoughts. While I don't HATE the design of the Wii U, I hate that there aren't any games I want to play on it but 1 every 6 months it seems. I hated the Wii's motion controls, and I loved the fact that Nintendo tried to fix that and cater to "hardcore" gamers with Wii U, but they failed so so terribly. Remember their last e3 was the one where they gloriously unveiled Nintendo Land! So embarrassing they gave up ever doing a live presentation again (actually they don't do it because they don't have enough games to talk about anymore). I am all for the NX! In fact i do hope it is a hybrid because the 3DS, while a great system (New 3DS XL) is also sputtering out it seems due to poor forethought from Nintendo. Remember these systems were advertises as having Saints Row (3DS) and Battlefield (Wii U) when they were pitched to gamers!

"They have seriously lost hundreds of millions of dollars funneling money into software to keep WiiU owners happy despite the bottom immediately dropping out on sales in January 2013 (under 60k units for a brand new console). Nintendo has lost their butts for you over the past 2.5 years while everyone in the industry has been calling for them to pull the plug..."
I think you're exaggerating information. There is really no evidence that Nintendo has lost money 'fuelling money into software' to make Wii U gamers happy, and you're forgetting the 3DS. In all honesty, it's early to start suggesting the NX should arrive as early as next year because we don't even know what it is aside from the fact that it's new hardware. How are you so sure that NX would sell '20 million' or so within its first year? Unless Nintendo does something that appeals to those gamers, the Xbox and PS gamers won't suddenly say, "Oh, the NX!" and switch to the new console.

perhaps because we don't know if it's a home console....

Because it isn't time for a new console

Because you're swearing black and blue that it is a console with no evidence to support your claim. Just wild assumptions which could just as easily be applied to a new handheld gaming device.

Funny how you wasted your time writing all of this when Nintendo said the NX won't replace the WiiU. You get boring repeating the same pointless stuff over and over.

Don't forget that Nintendo said the DS wouldn't replace the GBA and look what happened with that!

@BlueSkies I didn't read everything, but I know one thing. Wii U sales have been growing every year, and Nintendo projects Wii U sales to remain about the same during 2015/2016, the 3DS however is projected to sell less than it did last year. That's all we know. Whether the NX will sell millions or will be a relatively powerful console remains to be seen.The NX will be most likely a handheld console.