The vast majority of Wii owners would not see the need to upgrade. Especially considering how few games the average Wii owner purchases to begin with, many getting it just for Wii Sports and Wii Fit.
You can't produce an "upgrade" with a new disc format to begin with. That would make it a brand new system since the old Wii would not be able to play Bluray games. Trading in Wiis would be really expensive for Nintendo, and they'd have no use for a warehouse full of outdated systems.
The only explanation I could see would be if they were taking a PS2/PS3 route, continuing to support an older console for a few more years for one audience, while pushing ahead with a new fancier console for a much smaller audience... but that doesn't seem like Nintendo, and with Galaxy 2 and Other M already scheduled for Wii this year, it's not like there'd be one game to make users want to upgrade, unless these are both early 2010 releases while there is something secret planned for Bluray. I think many Wii users would feel jipped if they were forced to buy a new console for the big holiday release.
It just doesn't add up, not for 2010, certainly.
Edited on by Adam
Come on, friends,
To the bear arcades again.