Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@Giancarlothomaz
???

Why would it be "nearly impossible"? Maybe for other consoles it's nearly impossible, but for Switch? A console that'll be at 126 million sold at the 6 year mark in March? Not only is it not "nearly impossible", it's incredibly probable

As of March, Switch will only be 29m away from the record, with momentum of around 20 million units per year still being sold. You tell me, what kind of mathematics are you using where selling 20 million a year can't reach 29 million sold before Switch production ends?

Even if Switch does 18m for FY7, it'll only be 11m away from the record at the 7 year mark. The sheer momentum at that point will ensure another 11m units are sold over the following 2 years (be it 9m and 2m, or 8m and 3m, etc).

Is it possible it doesn't quite reach the record? Sure. It's possible. If momentum slows more in line with past Nintendo consoles after Switch 2 releases, it may fall 5-10m short. But given the dominance of Switch these past 6 years with little let up, I don't think it unreasonable to expect 2 years or overlapping sales in the 6m/yr range.

At minimum Switch will come within 15 million of the record. Bare minimum. At most, it could reach 155, maybe even 160 million sold. It just depends on when Switch 2 releases.

We'll get the nine-months earning report from Nintendo in February.

Nintendo will probably report the Switch having sold in the neighborhood of 122m lifetime in that report.

In less than 24 months after that it'll pass the PS2's lifetime sales.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/index.html

@JaxonH PS2 was a sale monster, no other console has managed to reach it sales potencial(partly thanks to piracy and it DVD player, Switch is expensive to very people making it hard to reach PS2/DS sale numbers, also it sales in it steadly decline, each trimestres Switch sell less and less.

@Giancarlothomaz
Ya, it was.

But hello, it's nearly 2023, and Switch is on track for 126 million sold in exactly 6 years. You can't argue against Mathematical facts

So uh, guess what. Switch is also a sales monster. You can say "it's expensive" but A) that's irrelevant if people are still buying it in record numbers, and B) it's actually super cheap. Inflation being accounted for, Switch Lite is the lowest price entry for a main console since the $99 GameCube and Wii.

You're looking at all the reasons why PS2 sold so great and all these theoretical reasons why Switch won't surpass it, and that would make sense if we were having this discussion in 2017.

But it's December 2022. And Switch will be at 126 million sold after 6 years. Again, you can't argue against the facts. And the facts are, Switch IS on pace to outsell PS2.

It's like watching a runner run a race, trying to beat the Olympic time of 1 minute, and they get 80% of the way to the finish line in 30 seconds, and you say, "they'll never make it in time!" It's ridiculous.

@Giancarlothomaz
See for yourself.

Switch is outpacing PS2. It's literally a question of whether Nintendo holds off on Switch 2 long enough to beat the record. That's the only thing that will stop Switch smashing the all time record.

Also, consider this

Aligned global hardware sales are showing much longer legs, with a more gentle decline. Longer tail end sales vs DS is precisely why Switch will be able to catch it (DS is basically same as PS2), given the time.

And the software sales go alongside that. Much higher software sales means a vibrant platform that is still alive and well. And the more vibrant a platform is, the longer it can last before momentum slows to a stop.

I’m curious as to when this COD deal will produce results. For this I care as a shareholder only as I don’t play COD but the potential for sales is certainly there depending on the quality of releases.

I think we'll see at least one more year of full Switch support before Nintendo turns their sights on a new generation. If that happens, and especially if Nintendo positions Switch 1 as a budget model after the release of the new hardware, I could see it hitting PS2 numbers.

It's hilarious to remember there were trolls trying to argue that the console would sell less than the Wii U at one point.

@Ryu_Niiyama I wouldn't expect to see anything CoD-related on a Nintendo console (likely the successor) before 2024 at bare minimum. 2025 seems more realistic to me. After all, the acquisition itself is still up in the air at this point.

@Ryu_Niiyama
Figure the Activision deal doesn't close until late 2023.

And it'll probably be a year of them organizing, assimilating projects, restructuring teams, etc. Only then, after all that, will they likely commit resources. CoD is on a 3 year cycle, so I'd expect 2027, a few years into the Switch 2 lifespan. It's possible they start porting something that can run like Modern Warfare Remastered after the deal closes, and assuming 1 year for the port, late 2024 would could potentially see a Switch port of a Remastered 7th gen CoD. And at that point, it would likely be a cross gen release with Switch 2 or just run better via BC. But as for a new entry, I'm gonna say holiday 2027, maybe holiday 2026 if the stars align.

@Ralizah I was estimating about ‘25-‘26 myself. I do wonder if things go through if blizz/ms will make spec suggestions for ease of development. I could see MS potentially using this to leverage a foothold into the portable market. Either by using Nintendo as the vehicle (they need the toe into Japan still) or to learn from Nintendo and then pull a Sony and go their own way.

@Ralizah The next CoD doesn't release until 2024 anyways. Given that the deal isn't supposed to close until June, I don't think there's enough time to get that entry up and running.

I think it'll be 2025's CoD on Switch 2, with maybe CoD Mobile on the current Switch in 2024.

is Nintendo hiting Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom is gonna have a trailer at TGA tommorow?

@EaglyTheKawaiiShika true, what i lying to myself , Nintendo will not show anything major at TGA tommorow.

@EaglyTheKawaiiShika
Hey, I'm all about the new Funky Mode. Haters gonna hate 😉 DKC Tropical Freeze was legitimately the most exciting info drop at that entire award show. Cranky Kong returning was hype! My entire childhood brought back in HD.

Tekken 8 and Star Wars Jedi Survivor are already confirmed to be at the Game Awards, with Street Fighter 6, FFXVI, and a new Crash rumored.

@Giancarlothomaz They've done a tweet for all the Nintendo related nominees except Sparks of Hope. That game wasn't even mentioned when they did the Best Family Game tweet:

@Grumblevolcano i see, so is not related to Nintendo showing anything major at the event today.

I think the fact Nintendo were so keen to sign up for the 10 year CoD deal gives the impression we're approaching the point where Nintendo considers it ok to release Advance Wars given CoD is mostly more unsuitable. The most likely 1st CoD game for CoD's return to Nintendo platforms is Modern Warfare Remastered given it's an already existing remaster of a 7th gen game.

@Grumblevolcano Truth. At this rate we'll probably get to do "No Russian" before playing Advance Wars 1+2 on Switch.

Huh. Sony sounding really upset and kinda just chucking things out there. Taking their anger out at Nintendo now?

An argument could be made that more preteens play CoD than adults over the age of 18 do, lol.

I suppose Sony's rambling is par for the course from a Murican-run platform like Playstation.