@Peek-a-boo Wii was on sale for over 8 years if we include the Mini. That would be 15M a year divided evenly. (if we assume the 120M Wii numbers are accurate.) They're projecting 12M in year 1 which is presumably slower than subsequent years in segments. That's not an impossible target if they actually MAKE hardware (which I'm not convinced they will, but, hey...) That would include the discount options and the "old model after the better new model comes out" pricing.
He didn't say it would outsell Wii, he said Wii-like numbers which means better than 3DS numbers. That's not an unreasonable expectation (an opinion I did not share in March.)
I'm not saying they WILL create conditions to do it but I don't think it's not very possible to do if they don't blunder it either.
@Ralizah Sony's had a number of great games, yes. Most of the PS3's great games came late int its lifespan, though honestly other than the Uncharteds I can't even remember any 1st party games that I found super appealing to me, personally, in that time period. I was on the Vita honeymoon at that point though so I was paying less attention. But most of Sony's success in late PS3 and PS4 era aside from the good games particularly at the moment, hasn't really been earned. They defaulted into success late in the PS3 era despite their cataclysmic blunders mostly because XBox managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They went pursuing their goal to win the war against Wii, focused EVERYTHING on Kinekt, and lost their base in the process. Early PS4 sales were high because, even Yoshida pointed out, most of those sales were from former XBox customers. The Kinekt focus on later 360 and the even MORE cataclysmic blunder of the XBox VCR box launch, price, and policy, was almost a mirror image of Sony vs Saturn that E3. Meanwhile Nintendo did the whole WiiU nightmare. So basically early, Sony built momentun because their competitors shot themselves in the back and threw themselves into the river. Their big success is they didn't WASTE that momentum and throw themselves into the river too, and instead used it and made the games to earn it.
My point being: PS4 is popular now because it's popular. But people didn't choose Playstation because it's Playstation, this time around, they chose it because there was really no other serious choice for years until the great Playstation games did start arriving. Heck I was fence sitting that E3 between XBox and Playstation. I watched both their pre-E3 conferences. Neither was inspiring. I put my preorder in the moment Sony's show wrapped up. It was the only choice that wasn't awful Granted I already liked some Sony series, but I also liked my 360. And both got more play than my late era Wii.
That's mostly in line with everything you said, but the one key difference is it's not taking into account that part of its success is due to lack of competition. What reason would anyone buy an X1 over a PS4 unless it's for playing with friends that only have an X1? WiiU had reasons, but nobody actually had interest in the hardware itself.
Wii was a genuine phenomenon (unfortunately to the wrong market) but PS4 had the fortune of being the only option that people A) Didn't hate, and B) Didn't look obsolete. I'm not saying they haven't made it a great console, but I'm saying they were handed a position where it was easy to do so, do it on their own pace, and really know they had the market locked up and could plan around that kind of sales ratio. That kind of opportunity is rare. Their success numbers were unexpected across the board, largely because nobody including themselves expected XBox AND WiiU to implode like they did before even hitting shelves.
As for Switch, yeah, we don't really know the market. I don't see it reaching too far into Wii type new market. I see them TRYING to make that happen but I don't see that happening quite to that degree. What I do see as possible is a lot of the core gamers going PS/PC+Switch because it does something differently, and I see a lot of former PS/XB "non-gamer" customers that didn't necessarily buy every game like Nier and Horizon but played their XBLA/PSN games ditching the clunky console and getting the more modern Switch. And I do see most of the handheld audience moving over both from Vita and 3DS (at least in Japan the biggest handheld market we see the weekly numbers showing just how fast that conversion is happening.) So I think it will be a mix of different gamers from different gaming "wings" converging on Switch. It won't dent the core PS demographic, but I also think that demographic is likely to intersect both for Nintendo and PS.
The loser here is XBox, 100%.
(Edit: Wii was a genuine phenomenon...not WiiU...well that was phenomenally terrible sales...but not the kind of phenomenon I meant )
@NEStalgia I appreciate you replying, and I don't disagree with what you're saying however, there's just one thing I wish to mention. I was saying that the Wii has sold a shy over 100 million, meaning just that. It officially sold 101.52 million units (including the Wii Mini) when they stopped producing them back in 2013.
Only the PSone and PlayStation 2 have sold more, at 102.50 million and 155 million respectively.
The sales of the Wii peaked in 2008 - three years after it was released - then completely crashed in 2010 when the Kinect came along and the PlayStation 3 begun to pick up steam after its ho-hum first few years.
The Wii 'only' sold nearly 17 million units (which is still 3.4 million more than the Wii U!) from 2010 until October 2013, which is when Nintendo finally pulled the plug. This works out at approximately 4.25 million per year for four slow years. Between 2005 to 2009, however, sales for the Wii averaged at over 21 million a year!
Talk about an abruptly drastic and dramatic drop off in sales from 2010 onwards...
I like talking about console sales for some odd reason!
@NEStalgia Microsoft handed it to Sony this gen, gotta agree with that. From Sony's perspective though, why invest a lot early on, when there's no competition? And let's not forget that backwards decision to delay the launch of the Xbox One by one whole year in half of Europe and Japan! I still don't understand what the reason behind the delay was... It was an easy ''win'' for Sony.
Anyway, going back to what @Peek-a-boo (almost wrote Peek-a-bee again) said; Good-will and momentum from the previous gen gets you pretty far. Even the PS3 sales weren't as terrible as some think they were: https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/MTIyMz... Behind the 360? Yes. By miles? No. Reason? The momentum from the PS2 saved the PS3. The Wii didn't have that momentum. Since a big chunk of the userbase were people that never owned a console before and proved that they are also willing to never buy a console again. It's a risky market to focus on, so I doubt Nintendo will go all-in on that market this gen. The benefit of focusing on the Xbox/PS/pre-Wii crowd is that they're very likely to buy another console next gen.
About the Switch sales, don't count your chickens before they hatch. Early sales aren't a good representation of lifetime sales. The 3DS actually outsold the DS in its first year, but I wonder if it's even going to sell half of the DS' lifetime sales. I'm sure it'll outsell the Wii U, but it could end up anywhere from 50 million to 100 million. Difficult to predict right now.
Anyway, enough of this sales blabber. I'm getting NieR: Automata next, and I'm looking forward to it!
@Peek-a-boo Hmm, I remember a 120M figure in there somewhere. I'll go with the 101 though (which is easier to achieve for Switch actually), and yeah, Wii's trajectory is terrible. It really blew up because it became an exercise fad, not for its library. Nintendo learned the wrong lesson (which Iwata later acknowledged, around 2013) that they focused too much on the casual user, and once the exercise fad was over, it was hard to sell Wiis to the gaming market. Wii succeeded for the wrong reasons, and they tried to take that into WiiU. So far Switch seems to be showing sparks of success for the right reasons so whatever trajectory it gains is a lot less likely to fall off a cliff like that. PS3/Kinekt I don't really think had much influence at all in how the Wii cratered after 2010. Nintendo did that all by themselves.
Talking about console sales is fun. Maybe we're in the wrong line of work?
@octane IMO NEITHER MS nor Sony were really prepared for the gen to launch when it did. Their hardware reflects that they weren't ready. Nintendo forced their hand because they had no choice after the wii cratered, and their own retailers were BEGGING them to kill off the 360/3 as it was producing no retail interest being 7 years old. They really both had scrappy launches, both were disastrously incomplete, both had hardware that wasn't really what an upgrade should have been. It's just that MS flipped off their customers just before badly launching an incomplete underdesigned product, while Sony gave them all a group hug first
Agreed on momentum and the bad lessons of the Wii. Wii made a lot of money but it did more harm than good overall to the company.
Switch sales, agreed early sales aren't a good representation (though what would those sales be if they actually had product on the shelves?) It's more about market perception. There's just a general buzz around Switch of a variety I haven't seen in a long long time. PS4 launch was kind of a default upgrade. PS3 launch was kind of a default upgrade. Wii launch was a DIFFERENT buzz. WiiU had no buzz. Switch has buzz that reminds me of the OG XBox launch and the PS2 launch. I think that mentality in the public (and gamer) mindset is something that will carry it far. Maybe maybe not Wii numbers, but if it can get between 3DS 65M and WiiU 101M And have actual gamers playing rather than bowling...that's a very big deal. The "big" sales don't come until after the price cuts and sequel models.
3DS did well considering it was mostly directly competing against mobile, and especially in Japan, and considering handhelds are kind of second string outside Japan. DS was a miracle, like the Wii, but much better. But it's hard to compare 3DS sales momentum to DS sales momentum or even GBA momentum since the rise of phones and tablets had such a direct impact on its market. Switch cuts its losses both ways, but I think we won't understand the full scope of Switch potential sales until 3DS is cut loose and a "Switch Mini" replaces it a few years from now.
Haha, my backlog is big enough without Nier. I have like 500 hours of P5 to start into first! Have fun!
Is anyone getting prey? It SEEMS like a fun looking game, but thanks to Bethesdas ridiculous new review policies I can't find many impressions that go far beyond the first hour. The demo was fun enough, I think, but I couldn't really pin down the feel of the game. Where I sort of expected a bioshock type experience, I don't think that description does it justice. It's certainly beautiful, though. And the premise seems interesting enough.
In regards to Switch sales, the biggest thing will be making sure it keeps up momentum. Wii U started off hot then dropped off a cliff and never recovered. Switch is at that "hot start" phase still - keeping up momentum throughout this year is crucial.
The test for Switch sales, and the gap where it could lose momentum, is really June-mid July. While ARMS looks like a quality title, I don't think it's going to push the Switch. So unless the system sells based off of E3 hype (not unheard of at all) or there's still serious demand for Mario Kart/Zelda, there's a chance the Switch loses its momentum during that gap. Or maybe there will be some insane, unforeseen demand for Ultra Street Fighter II that pushes system sales
Ok Metroid Prime is fair, but not the others. RE4 came out the same year on PS2 and sold more on there. I didn't even know it'd been a gamecube game originally until reading that years later!
@NEStalgia I think we have both had our say in regards to the Wii sales and its high-and-low moments.
Here's where you can read the official hardware and software units directly from Nintendo themselves: - Dedicated Video Game Sales Units.
This is the information they use for their quarterly and annual reports so, they cannot fib or hide their numbers!
I always find those percentage stats the most interesting:
A 21% decrease from the NES to the SNES; a 33% decrease from the SNES to the N64; yet another 33% decrease from the N64 to the GameCube; then, suddenly, there's a whooping 78% increase from the GameCube to the Wii; then, unfortunately, there's a sharp 86% decrease from the Wii to the Wii U.
I personally reckon that the Switch will end up selling 70 million hardware units, which is 12 million Switch(es) a year for the next five years. This would make it the second best selling Nintendo home console behind the Wii, which shall definitely be a cause for celebration!
I cannot see the Switch reaching the 100 million milestone, but I'd love to be proved wrong.
I can envision the PlayStation 4 passing that particular milestone though, given that Sony has already shipped 60 million units after just three and a half years, whereas the Xbox One may well lurk somewhere between 42-45 million units (an extra 38%) with roughly 27 million units already sold around the world thus far.
p.s. I'm a teacher and I enjoy Maths too so, I guess I am kind of in the right job actually!
@Operative2-0 The Prey demo put me off TBH. It felt surprisingly slow to play for a relatively fast-paced game. The reviews are quite positive so far though! Perhaps the game picks up after the first hour or so?
@Operative2-0 I have a hard time wanting to get into prey having memories of the first one. Some loved it, but it just wasn't for me. I know they're rebooting it, but the whole human processing thing just kind of....there wasn't really joy in playing that to me. And it surely never lived up to hype.
@IceClimbers By Now WiiU was already entering its death spiral. It had a hot actual launch but the gap hit hard right after that. IMO by February/March 2013 things were already looking bad. It COULD have been recovered if the right things happened, but looking back it was really turning South at that point. Meanwhile Switch can't be found pretty much anywhere, on any continent. I'm not saying that means it'll do Wii or PS4 numbers based on that, but it's certainly well beyond WiiU comparisons.
I agree otherwise, and I'm still 50/50 on Arms. I think they're betting too much on that motion title. But there's also a reason they're dumping Splatoon right after. Forget the West, that's like dumping Monster Hunter in Japan. Add in the pending DQ11, and that's another boon in Japan for system total numbers. I think here in the West, the lull won't be so bad, but I do think Holiday with a huge RPG + Skyrim: Toilet Edition + Mario + BotW for the non hardcore "INeedMyGamesNOW" group, that's a massive holiday (and that's not the whole thing) Nothing set in stone...but just seeing the overall public vibe....there's a little bit of a Game Boy phenomenon around the Switch. It didn't fly off the shelves day 1, and didn't have a Wii or PS4 meteoric ascent, but it just stayed stable forever and ever and ever. No I don't think it will do GB numbers, but I think that kind of slow and steady sales and presence in public consciousness could happen easily for Switch. If Nintendo doesn't blow it. Of course...it's Nintendo, soo......
@Peek-a-boo That depends on what duration of time we're talking and how far down the prospective Switch ecosystem we go. If we're talking Switch 1.0, maybe. If we're talking the inevitable handheld replacement that plays Switch games, the long tail discount shelf life, the "SwitchPro" version, etc as a family.... that number's a lot easier sounding. I see a 7-10 year shelf life on Switch considering they're managing to do that with lowly 3DS and PS3 is STILL sold in some places, that's par for the course.
If we look at 3DS numbers, it's worth keeping in mind so much of that was driven by Japan alone and that the West generally ignores handhelds (except the kid market.) I wonder what a 3DS that wasn't ignored by the West might have sold? Switch is that machine.
I find that sales page interesting as it contradicts on NUMEROUS units the numbers that have floated in the press and other analytics for years.....that one SHOULD be the right one as it's the official one....but I find it interesting Nintendo is almost universally posting numbers LOWER than the numbers that have floated around. I'm wondering if there's something I'm missing in there.
@NEStalgia Yeah, absolutely. I used the five year time scale in the respect that both the PlayStation 5 and Xbox 'Next' will be available to buy in stores in 2020, with the Switch 'carrying on' for another two years beyond.
And yes, I am sure there will be more than one version of the Switch, whether the new models may or may not break compatibility with one other; like the DSi having a handful of exclusive games, or the new 3DS (and XL) being the only platform that you can play Xenoblade Chronicles and the SNES games on, for example.
Not sure where you have read higher/lower numbers. It would actually be a criminal offence if Nintendo posted the wrong numbers, as they would be lying to the public, the financial services and their stockholders.
If you are getting 'different numbers' from the likes of, say... VGChartz, then they are completely and utterly wrong. They use their own methods along with newsletters to predict how many each console has sold to date.
I wouldn't place your faith in any other numbers from any other places except from those that are posted within the official link I have provided you. You will see those numbers change (for the 3DS family and the Switch) during the Nintendo quarterly reports. That webpage might be worth you bookmarking for future reference!
@Peek-a-boo Yeah it's interesting. I don't know where those numbers have floated from originally...maybe VGChartz...but the numbers were actually higher almost across the board for all these consoles. I gleaned them from "news" articles at their various times. Then again just in the past week various news articles have been highly contradictory about MK8D numbers. What a mess.
@NEStalgia Adam Boyes spoke to the press back in 2012 sometime after E3 and before Gamescom (in Cologne) saying that the PlayStation 3 had passed the total shipments of the Xbox 360 and coincidently, it was also the same year that Microsoft ceased revealing its sales data for the Xbox 360 too, until they grouped them together as the 'Xbox family' when the Xbox One came out in November 2013.
Lots of websites (mostly American ones) that occasionally reported sales updates still insisted that the Xbox 360 was above the PlayStation 3 at least a year after Adam Boyes made that openly clear - and true - statement.
VGChartz was one of the worse offenders at the time, as they flat out refused to accept/believe this!
Funnily enough, the last time Microsoft gave us an update on hardware units was back in June 2014 (Q4), which is when the company stopped divulging individual platform sales in their fiscal reports.
Hmmm, I wonder why? They now lump the Xbox family in with the PC, phones and Surface revenue.
Makes you appreciate Nintendo showing their hardware units even more so, knowing that they continued to update the Wii U sales every quarter, despite the results (always) being rather underwhelming.
@Peek-a-boo LOL yeah i was mostly aware of Microsofts numbers games, but seeing it so concisely is just plain funny Sometimes I almost want to switch to Xbox just out of pity and support of the underdog. But it really DOESN'T have any interesting games
@IceClimbers Given that the Xbox One has sold approximately 16,500,000 in the US alone according to collated NPD data, and that the market in the United States makes up for nearly 60% of total sales, current estimates put the global hardware units a shy over or a little under 27,500,000 as of the end of March.
I genuinely do not expect Microsoft to reach the 30 million milestone until September at the earliest, and that's with me being quite generous with my numbers.
In the end, only Microsoft will know the exact amount when all is said and done.
Its also amusing that one of Switchs earliest third party supporters in launch window is........Microsoft. Nothing says a product is a runaway success like actively seelling products for your competitors to turn a profit
@Ralizah For me, the standout titles on the Xbox One are Forza Horizon 3, Ori and the Blind Forest, Rare Replay, Sunset Overdrive and the multiplayer component in Halo 5: Guardians.
I have also played - and completed - Quantum Break on my friends Xbox One when I was housesitting his place while he was away in New Zealand for a month.
Whilst visually impressive, it felt like a chore to play. It's strange how the gunplay and time-shift powers looked remarkably exciting in trailers, yet surprisingly dull when you actually play it. I was not a fan of reading emails, jotted notepads or newspapers to understand the story (further) either.
And you cannot talk about Quantum Break without mentioning the last boss. It is the worse last boss I have ever endured. It's not only flat out awful, but it actually brings the entire game down several notches too.
I thoroughly enjoyed my time with Ori and the Blind Forest and Sunset Overdrive though. They are both worth playing, but not to the extent of rushing out to buy a console for. I also wish that the Master Chief Collection wasn't broken at launch - that was something they really didn't need to mess up, and they somehow did!
I'm beginning to go off topic so, I will just leave my thoughts there. Out of the three companies, it is Microsoft that has the most to prove to everybody at E3 in a months time. A powerful half-step console doesn't mean anything to me without a compelling line up to show for it.
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