Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

Well it doesn't matter what I think. Until a couple of months ago I thought that the NX could be a portable. I still think that releasing a portable first has a lot of merit. But they have now downgraded their estimates for Wii U and pointed to the NX as the reason why. So there's not much doubt anymore.

Does that mean I think they won't replace 3DS now? Well no. I think we'll get a new portable within the next couple of years. They're not going to drop portables for mobile I don't care how "dead" people think portables are. So we will get one it just won't be NX.

Oh, and the bit where they say NX won't be a "simple replacement"? I'm not sure it's worth reading too much into that. You could have said the same about the Wii, DS and Wii U.

If NX is replacing Wii U, that means they'll be forced to drag out the 3DS's lifespan until Spring 2018 at the earliest. What games can launch on the thing in 2017? I mean, there's still a small handful of localisations for the west, and another Pokemon game (Sun 2/Moon 2 or something like that). That's about it. The usual franchises have been exhausted already.

I think Etrian Odyssey 3 Untold will happen next year though.

@Project_Dolphin:
"We plan to greatly reduce the amount of Wii U systems produced and shipped for the fiscal year ending March 2017, compared to the fiscal year ended March 2016.

Taking into consideration demand for the new NX hardware and overall demand forecasts, we plan to ship 800,000 units."

There's more than one way to interpret that, considering Nintendo seems to be deliberately vague. The replacement interpretation is perfectly legitimate, I'll grant you that. But how about this reading:

"Taking into consideration demand for the new NX hardware": we're going to be so busy manufacturing and shipping NX hardware that there's no point putting resources into building Wii U units. We'll shift manufacturing resources to NX to meet expected demand. Besides, retailers won't even want to allocate Wii U shelf space when there is the shiny new NX to offer.

"and overall demand forecasts": nobody is going to want the Wii U when all our focus and marketing will be on the NX premium portable and 3DS value portable.

@cwong15:
Sometimes there's nothing to read into. Sometimes you have to admit that you were wrong.

@Project_Dolphin, @skywake: relax, everybody. Eventually, NX will be revealed. That will be a good time to start a gloat thread: who was right? I'd love to see that, in fact, since people have been so creative in making their predictions. Some people will deserve the glory of being right. In the meantime, there is no wrong or right. There is just creative speculation. Let's have fun.

@Project_Dolphin:
I'm as big a fan of the Wii U as anyone. I'm also one of the more vocal on the forums about how outdated the 3DS is. So if anyone was going to want to believe this it would be me. But at this point I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

The Wii U is on the way out, it won't get much if any support in 2017. We know this. We have Nintendo literally pointing to NX as the reason for that decline. We know Zelda U is now on NX. Short of showing the hardware itself I don't know how much clearer it can be.

There's also the fact that Wii U essentially has 3 titles left for the next 11+ months that are of any significance. There's basically an 11 month drought, and that's assuming Zelda comes in March.

I think the main reason Nintendo has for not replacing the 3DS is the enormous risk associated with it. As the only dedicated handheld on the market, and a device that people purchased DESPITE the rise of the mobile market, the 3DS will continue to sell software.

The second they replace the device, they have to start building a brand new install base, and whether they can do that in the current market is controversial. If you are Nintendo, why take the risk?

I think the 3ds cannibalized on Wii U sales. I think it was Skywake who linked to a study on where people are using their portable and it was mostly at home. So I wouldn't be surprised if people treat it as their secondary console to get their Nintendo fix.

@Project_Dolphin:
When did I say anything about the rumors? I didn't. My comments have been purely in respect to the official statements.

@Project_Dolphin:
Is it smart for Nintendo to support a platform that they intend to replace? I think it's clear that Nintendo don't expect the Wii U to do well. So why put effort into trying to save a sinking ship?

As for NX well... it can't do much worse than the Wii U. Especially at launch. If there was a bet about which version of Zelda U will sell more? Now it's confirmed for NX, I'd put money on the NX version doing better.

There's one image on Emily Rogers blog that leads me to believe that Nintendo can improve their software output twice as efficiently.

Thus, rather than creating two very similar games for two different pieces of hardware, they can hopefully pour all their resources into one version and making said game(s) the best it can be for the NX alone.

@Peek-a-boo: This is why I think the 3DS actually have hindered the Wii U, rather then help it. If the library feels redundant, why should I buy the more expensive sibling?

Holiday 2017? Spring 2018 at the latest. The system will be 7 years old by then.

You've changed the topic of discussion. We were talking about whether or not it looks like the NX is replacing the Wii U. How smooth or otherwise the transition is doesn't really matter for what we were talking about. A transition is a transition whether it's smooth or not.

There's only one holiday period left for the Wii U and people are going to go into it knowing the NX is on the horizon. Regardless of what your opinions about the potential for the NX are they're going to be better than the Wii U. Even if not overall the NX will certainly do better at this point in the game. Who's going to buy a Wii U knowing that the NX is launching next year?

@skywake: Given how things have been recently regarding Nintendo, I wouldn't be surprised if the NX is some kind of Virtual Boy type disaster.

@Grumblevolcano:
I know you're being hyperbolic but I don't know. I reckon even a Virtual Boy scale disaster would have them doing better than their Wii U estimates. Actually I'm pretty certain it would be. The Virtual Boy sold almost 770k in its one year on the market in the US and Japan. They're expecting the Wii U to move 800k units for the whole of the next financial year.

I think Nintendo would be disappointed with NX sales any less than 10mill or so by the end of 2017. The Wii U benchmark is around 5mill or so. 10mill puts them about on-par with what the XBOne has done. Remembering that the Wii U is sitting at <13mill total install base....

Remember when the 3ds launched like the biggest flop in history, nearly any and all resources within nintendo were dedicated to making that system work.

The wii U got sacrificed from a business perspective and nintendo knew it would likely fail as such because Iwata stated this later on. Output went low in order to be able to invest in 3ds output. I’m a satisfied customer with my wii U and the business flop it is doesn’t bother me much - save for online games being thin.

For nintendo, the handheld market came first. That is what they chose to do. As such, what comes next in the form of NX will likely fare much better. As long as nintendo can surprise the internet positively that is - as the wii U was more doomed by internet bad mouthing than realistic observations according to my genuinely awesome game library.

Where did he state this? This is the first time I heard this.