Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

Yeah, and their estimate is for only 15mill sales of Wii U games. Take the games that sold above around 1mill copies in 2015 for Nintendo on the Wii U. Splatoon, Mario Maker, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Mario Party, Yoshi and 3D World. In 2015 those titles moved ~14mill units between them. Those titles will keep selling even at a reduced rate. For arguments sake lets just say that all of the "old" games together are going to account for 7 of the 15mill projected sales. It'll probably be a bit more than that because I'm not taking into account the discounts on My Nintendo or the new "Nintendo Selects" range.

Then ontop of that there are the few new games we know about. Twilight Princess HD, Star Fox Zero, Pokken Tournament, Paper Mario: Color Splash. Those games are all new for this FY and are probably going to contribute around 1mill or so each. At this point we're so close to the 15mill it's not funny. This is before considering the very strong possibility that Zelda U is a dual-release NX launch title.

Really, 15mill isn't a huge figure. They don't have to announce any new software to hit that number. You really need to stop trying to spin some sort of fantastical story. It's pretty damn cut and dry. Nintendo is leaving the Wii U out in the cold and are moving on to the NX. Why? Well because the NX is the Wii U's successor, whether "simple" or not.

@skywake: The only 2016 Wii U game I see getting at least around 1 million sales is TPHD. The others have at least 1 thing that will destroy potential sales like the controls for Star Fox or creating exactly what the fanbase doesn't want for Paper Mario (Sticker Star 2). That said, I do think 15 million would be possible without any more new games because of Nintendo Selects and the games which are widely considered great from 2015 (Splatoon, Super Mario Maker, Yoshi's Woolly World, Xenoblade Chronicles X).

@Grumblevolcano:
Fair point, though when I said "a million or so" I didn't mean "1mill +". I was thinking more along the lines of an average. I agree it'd be a suprise if some of those games broke a million. I just wouldn't be that surprised if they all sold more than 500k or so.

Mario Kart sold 4+ million in its first year, 2+ million in its second and already sold ~200,000 in just 4 months. That's without the holiday season; 500,000 is an easy goal. But it could easily sell around 800,000 copies. Super Mario Maker, Smash Bros., Splatoon still sell pretty well. They have done so for the first four months and will likely continue to sell a decent amount for the rest of the year. Even games like Wind Waker HD, 3D World and New Super Mario Bros. will probably move at least another 200,000 copies this year.

15 million isn't a huge number. That's essentially selling one Wii U game to every Wii U owner. That's going to happen regardless of whether they release a substantial amount of new games or not.

@Project_Dolphin:
Umm, you do realise that those Wii sales figures I quoted were for just last year right? The Wii isn't exactly relevant still, it hasn't had a major software release for quite a while. The last Nintendo published million seller on the system was Mario Party 9 in 2012 and the last headline act was Skyward Sword in 2011. In terms of support Nintendo was giving it less in 2012 than the Wii U is going to get in 2017. Yet it still had 7mill pieces of software sold for it.

15mill pieces of software sold for the Wii U? That's nothing. That's basically Nintendo coasting to the finish line with the Wii U. I don't care how you massage the numbers you're not fooling anyone. There's no huge secret title in the mix and even if there is they're not expecting it to move the needle. There's no sign of extended support. The Wii U is winding back hard and fast and the NX is obviously a large part of that.

It was an example. I was just saying that the Wii has been dead for quite a while and has had no software released in a long time. There were still 7mill units of software sold. I didn't ignore the fact that the Wii had almost 10x the install base of the Wii U. I wasn't making a like-for-like comparison. I was just making an observation that the Wii, that system that had its last hit 6 years ago, still had 7mill new software sales. The estimates for the Wii U are only double that. That's with new content still coming out.

As @Octane said it's basically just 1 game sold for every Wii U owner. Face facts, the system is on the way out. This isn't a high target. This is Nintendo taking the Wii U and just letting it sit there for the last 12 months or so. They did the same thing to the Wii just before the Wii U launched.

I mentioned the Wii's sales numbers because you were suggesting that if the Wii U was being abandoned it would be impossible for them to sell any software. Something which you are still doing. I wasn't comparing the two I was making an example out of the clearly dead Wii and it's 7mill in software sales. Your entire argument is that the Wii U is not being replaced because software sales of 15mill is apparently absurdly high for a console that's coasting to its grave. And the only way you seem to know how to argue is to run around in circles with a blindfold on and your fingers in your ears.

It's really simple. Nintendo has reduced their sales forecasts for the Wii U dramatically. Both their software and their hardware sales. They've pointed to the NX as one of the main reasons for their reduced sales forecasts. We've also seen the biggest Wii U title being shifted to a dual release. Could there be more new games for the Wii U? Well sure, but it's clear Nintendo doesn't expect them to make a splash given the forecasts. All of that together? I think that's more than enough evidence to say that the NX is going to make the Wii U obsolete in the eyes of consumers.

What a load of BS, that's the only point I've been arguing for the last few pages. The original discussion was with me saying that the idea of the NX being a portable system was dead. That the NX is a home console and we knew that because of Nintendo's sales estimates. That's when you chimed in saying I can't say that because there was more than one way to interpret their financials. The massive reduction in system sales wasn't proof of anything!

Then I pointed to the statement Nintendo made saying that the reduction in Wii U sales forecasts was in-part because of the NX. Which you asked a quote for thinking I made it up and I provided. Then you went on about how the hardware sales were meaningless, that it was software sales that really mattered. So I pointed to their reductions in software sales forecasts. And that's where we've been since. So if this hasn't been about the NX replacing the Wii U then why on earth are you still disagreeing? Because that's the only point I've tried to make here.

I never said otherwise. If I was trying to argue that Nintendo would abandon Wii U to that degree I wouldn't have counted the known releases as Wii U games for 2016. I wouldn't have said that the Wii got less support in 2012 than the Wii U is going to get in 2017. You've been so busy trying to be right that you completely ignored what I've actually been saying here.

I've really just been saying that the NX is clearly going to replace the Wii U and that Nintendo has moved their big titles to the NX. If they're projecting sales of 15mill I don't think the Wii U is getting anything big. Outside of Zelda which is now also on the NX. This year for the Wii U will be like it was for the Wii in 2012 where the biggest selling titles were all old releases.

The 5 best selling Nintendo published Wii games in 2012
(with 70mill software sales down from 130mill):
#1 Wii Sports
#2 Mario Party 9 (new)
#3 Mario Kart Wii
#4 Wii Sports Resort
#5 New SMB Wii

...................

You can't even last 10mins without contradicting yourself

@Project_Dolphin: that's a pretty interesting contrast in GameCube vs Wii U titles. It does make the latter's announced offerings look pretty anemic by comparison. While the Wii U already has some pretty good games in its library, we all know how quickly older games fall off the charts: its the new games that get the sales. This contrast is made even stronger by the fact that the GameCube game sales were probably helped by Wii owners, since the Wii console was GameCube compatible. Since the NX — even if it had BC — will only be released at the end of the fiscal year, the projected Wii U sales will pretty much have to be shouldered by existing Wii U owners.

On the flip side, the Wii U has the VC, an indie eShop scene and Nintendo Selects. Aggressive use of those channels — especially Selects — might allow crank those sales. Moreover, there was some mention about download sales, so they might make a strong VC/DLC push. Nothing counts as much as full priced retail, but all those things together might help some. I do hope Nintendo go a few more things up their sleeves.

Simple replacement is a subset of replacement. Something can replace a thing without "simply" replacing it. The NX is replacing the Wii U, that much is clear. How "simple" or otherwise that replacement doesn't change that fact. The Wii didn't "simply" replace the Gamecube but it most definitely did replace it. Same deal with the Wii U, DS and to some degree the 3DS. It's PR speak, you're reading way too much into it.

And you say you're not saying it won't replace the Wii U. But then you bring the 3DS into the equation again. So which is it? Do you agree that the Wii U is being replaced by another home console or not? Yes or no. Because just a few posts ago you had a go at me for saying that you don't believe it's being replaced. Now you're being all vague again.

Well ok then....

Well from what we can tell Nintendo don't really plan to release anything other than Zelda U on the Wii U in 2017. They've immediately stopped releasing video games for the Wii U. They've downgraded their sales forecasts, they're moving the last big games over to the new generation system. So thanks for pointing out the parallels between the Gamecube and Wii U.

And yes, when Nintendo talked about the Wii during that period? They talked about it as not being just a replacement for the Gamecube. They called it the "Revolution". They did the same thing with the DS at the same time calling it their "third pillar". That it wasn't going to replace the GBA at all... until it did and they stopped talking about the GBA.

@skywake: but the GameBoy Advance Mocro... you remember that... right?

@Project_Dolphin:
If it's a home console it's replacing the Wii U. If it's not it's not. Simple or otherwise the Wii U is getting replaced by a home console. That's not a specific thing, that's a very broad spectrum. By home console replacement I mean something you plug into your TV that's more capable than the Wii U.

When I asked that question your answer was "no". So you're clearly trying to argue that the Wii U isnt being replaced. Simple as that. If you want to claim you're saying it is then you're just trying to have it both ways.

@Project_Dolphin: "My definition"

That right there is proof that you're moving the goalposts of this entire argument just to fit your side, making it impossible for you to be incorrect.

Bottom line is, NX will replace Wii U. Whether it will also eventually replace 3DS is irrelevant, and remains to be seen.

Except that you keep talking about the Wii U as if it's got a long future ahead of it. As if this hybrid theory somehow means they're keeping the Wii U and 3DS going. As I said earlier a piece of hardware is either going to be a system you can put in your pocket OR it's going to be a system you plug into your TV. Can it be both? Well theoretically maybe. But it can't be neither.

And it's clear they intend to slow down the Wii U. Which makes it damn obvious it's going to be some kind of replacement for the Wii U. Which means more power than the Wii U to some degree and a console that can plug into your TV. If it was one or less of these things they wouldn't be forecasting reduced Wii U sales. If it ends up being one or less of those things I'm still buying the Wii U version of Zelda.

The whole simple replacement thing might mean they have a new architecture, which means things like BC might be out of the question.

By that definition the Wii U is not a home console given that it has a semi-portable component. I don't think it's at all crazy to call anything that sits under your TV a "home console". If it has a portable component, and that's a big if, then it's a home console with a portable component. Either way it's going to put a huge dent in Wii U sales but not really impact the 3DS.

@skywake: @Project_Dolphin:

Guys, Is this argument going anywhere? You guys have been going at it for a while, and from what I have seen, it isn't going anywhere. Maybe we can just drop it and start talking about the Thread Topic again.