Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@FragRed: I will concede on MK8, but I reckon they will have some small announcements for Wii U at E3

Greninja for Pokken

@Grumblevolcano: Oooo, Pokken dlc! Hmmm....

Breloom for Pokken, then I will buy the game... sadly I wasn't impressed with the demo

@GrailUK: I'd personally like to see a Legend of Zelda crossover with Dark Souls. That should have been Nintendo's secret holiday sale this year

From the Investor Q & A.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/160428qa/inde...

Q1: For the fiscal year ending March 2017, projected sales of Wii U hardware is set quite low, due in part to the timing of the launch of NX (development code name for the new-concept dedicated video game system currently under development). During this planning stage, what was the thinking about the effect on the Nintendo 3DS system?

Tatsumi Kimishima (President):

By setting the projected sales of Wii U hardware for the fiscal year to 800,000 units, we do not see that there would be any negative effect on the Nintendo 3DS business. We have major titles for Nintendo 3DS for the fiscal year ending March 2017, as I mentioned in the presentation, and there is a solid lineup of titles. That should greatly contribute to the sale of both the hardware and the software. The positive aspect of lowering the projected sales of Wii U hardware to 800,000 units is that it allows us to focus on the Nintendo 3DS system.

and Q11:

While Wii U sales in the fiscal year ending March 2017 are predicted to be very weak, with NX sales and profit contributions included, looking at these predictions, the numbers look as if you are fairly confident in the NX and ready to take off running. Do you think you can cover the decline of the Wii U with the new NX?

Kimishima:

We are predicting about 800,000 Wii U hardware sales in the fiscal year ending March 2017, which is a decrease of about 2.4 million units compared to the previous year. NX and smart device business will be essential to cover this gap, but we also expect download content business to play a role. However, we are planning with the expectation that NX sales will compensate for much of the impact on sales from reduced Wii U hardware sales.

________________________________________________________________________________---

The forecast for the Wii U, the very fact that Kimishima himself stated that they can now focus on the 3DS for the upcoming fiscal year along with saying that the NX sales will compensate for the reduced Wii U hardware sales. Taking all that into consideration and its hard to say new unannounced titles are coming up for the Wii U.

Also, Nintendo has had horrible transitional years inbetween systems in the past. Consider what happened with the Gamecube in 2006, Wii in 2011/2012 for instance as they had to begin to get ready to launch there next system.

@Project_Dolphin: Yes I do need to repost it. Your saying the upcoming forecast isnt relevant because they could be scaling back production while still making new unannounced Wii U games. Except for the fact that Kimishima has stated there focus will be on the 3DS for the upcoming fiscal year and the major titles upcoming for the system. Why not say something similar for the Wii U? Because theres nothing major upcoming outside of what is known today.

@rs100: Well all investors care about is the money so only NX, 3DS and mobile matter to them. We all know that Pokemon Sun and Moon will be a gigantic seller irrelevant of whatever happens in the next 6 months.

@Grumblevolcano: Its not just Pokemon Sun/Moon, but unannounced titles as well. Which is why I brought up the 3DS.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/160428/04.html

''Due to our wide installed base, there are many titles, including major titles, from third-party software developers. Furthermore, there are many other unannounced titles, both first-party and third-party, that are proceeding with development."

"This slide shows announced 3DS titles launching in the American and European markets in April 2016 or later, including titles planned for future release. As in Japan, there are many more titles planned for future release, and other unannounced titles that are currently in development."

____________________________________________________________________________

@Project_Dolphin: "Or it could mean that Nintendo is not talking about any of their console video games until at a later date"

And yet............. see the above quote.

I'll ask again, they were able to say that for the 3DS, where is the above quote for the Wii U if there are these secret (unannounced) projects that could affect sales projections? And that last part is key here. Look, Im well aware of the fact that its unlikely you will hear things stated outright at an investor meeting like " Oh, the next Pikmin game or Animal Crossing are coming is in development! These games will release at __________date". So if your thinking this what im talking about im not.

But if there are other upcoming projects, that's something you outline to investors in the vague way they did for the 3DS because it'll affect forecasts for the year. That was never explained for the Wii U.

Your comparison to the NX is pretty odd.. Nintendo's current fiscal year is Apr 1 16- Mar 31 17). Its May 2. Take into consideration when the NX is projected to release and the system hasnt even been unveiled yet, I dont see how that applies here.

We are predicting about 800,000 Wii U hardware sales in the fiscal year ending March 2017, which is a decrease of about 2.4 million units compared to the previous year. NX and smart device business will be essential to cover this gap, but we also expect download content business to play a role. However, we are planning with the expectation that NX sales will compensate for much of the impact on sales from reduced Wii U hardware sales. - Mr Kimishima

More dlc for Wii U I reckon.

@rs100: You're misunderstanding my point, Pokemon Sun and Moon are going to be gigantic sellers irrelevant of what happens so Nintendo can take advantage of that to try and get large sales for other 3DS games at the same time. Pokemon X and Y didn't harm A Link Between Worlds sales but rather enhanced them for example.

@Project_Dolphin: Your leaving out the part where that projected sales number has been nearly cut in half from the previous fiscal year. Nintendo's FY 15 ( Apr 15 - Mar 16), the actual software sales for the Wii U was 27.36 million units. Its a very big difference.

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/04/nintendo_financial_r...

That said, its definitely a good point there and one I forgot about. Still, that number is projected to be significantly lower then the last fiscal year and should be considered when bringing that up.

I guess we'll see. I would like to be wrong and hopefully Nintendo doesnt go through yet another horrible transitional year in terms of software in between systems like 2006 for the Gamecube, and 2012 for the Wii as they prepare to launch a new system. Kimishima's comments last week along with the projected forecasts for the Wii U just makes me believe nothing is different this time around.

@Grumblevolcano: I see. Fair enough.

Wii U 2016/17:
Hardware sales: 800k, down 75%
Software sales: 15mill, down 45%

3DS 2016/17:
Hardware sales: 5mill, down 25%
Software sales: 55mill, up 15%

This is for their estimates for the next year. A period where they'll launch the NX and spent a lot of time talking about what it actually is. They also launch Zelda U and have all of the content that happens during the holiday period. Including the next Pokemon. And they're estimating a very sharp decline for the Wii U for both software and hardware.

I don't care how you spin it what you're saying doesn't add up. Oh and to the comment before about DLC? That doesn't necessarily have to be for the Wii U. It's just that it's a new part of their business that is doing pretty well. Particularly the Mario Kart and Smash DLC which are, for them, "evergreen" DLC.

I think the projected drastic drop in Wii U sales through the next 9-10 months, through the next holiday period, and mostly BEFORE the NX is released, means that Nintendo has given up on the home console market for the immediate future. They won't even try to sell home consoles. Will Wii U users be upset? Well, let me call your attention to the other thread on this NX forum, "How will Nintendo make it up to Wii U owners?". You'll notice that most responses to that thread say they're OK with it. Remember, there will only be a small number of additional Wii U owners in the future, based on sales projections. Hopefully, Nintendo will still throw a few low-cost bones our way. Speculation includes new VC releases, Pikmin 4 and other budget titles.

As to whether NX is a direct replacement for the Wii U, keep in mind that this was a meeting concerned with financial results. Nintendo thinks NX will be a FINANCIAL replacement for the Wii U. But the big N has given us absolutely no clue as to what the NX really is. From a business perspective, I'd say they should produce a portable. From a self-interest perspective — since I don't do portable gaming — I'd like it to be a home console. From Nintendo's perspective, it could be something that defies categorization.

I think it is already too late for Nintendo to compete with the current generation of home consoles. The community, the online presence and the game libraries of its competitors are now too well established. They might try to position the NX as a second console (it will have to be cheap), or launch initially as a portable and later reenter the home console market, as a hybrid, a microconsole, or something that totally defies categories. But as a conventional home console? It'd be suicide.

@cwong15:
If it was a portable system then why would anyone buy a 3DS? The sales projections show what it is. I think people are caught up in the fine details of all of this. You guys can't see the forest for the trees. A piece of hardware is either going to be a system you can put in your pocket OR it's going to be a system you plug into your TV. Can it be both? Well theoretically maybe. But it can't be neither.

I don't think it matters what the gimmick is or what makes the NX different from what came before it. Not for this discussion anyway. What matters is whether it's something you put in your pocket or plug into your TV. Whatever one it is it'll be the new one and consumers will stop buying Nintendo's existing one of that. If it's both then consumers would be running away from Wii U and 3DS.

And clearly based on their sales projections? They're saying it's going to kill sales for their existing "plugged into the TV" platform. Even with only about a month or so of this thing being on the market. Just telling people what it is will make people think twice about the Wii U. I don't know how much clearer things can be.

@skywake: I think you missed my opening point. The NX is only supposed to be released in March 2017, the end of Nintendo's fiscal year. How could it possibly "kill" Wii U sales? Especially since Nintendo will continue selling the Wii U for another fiscal year, including the crucial holiday sales period. Only Nintendo can kill Wii U sales, by simply not trying.

You seem to be certain that the NX must either be physically a 3DS or a Wii U in terms of form factor. I say we can rule nothing out. It could be a bigger portable that also streams to a HDTV (remember THAT rumor?). That will fit both or neither of your categories, depending on the size of your pocket. It could be a displayless doo-hickey that streams to your tablet, TV, VR goggles or gamepad. It could project onto your wall. Right now, I'm thinking portable, though that can change tomorrow. But IT DOESN'T MATTER, because the NX will not be released until the very END of the fiscal year, too late to affect the bulk of current-gen sales. Until then, Nintendo can merrily continue to sell their 3DS and Wii U consoles all through Christmas and beyond. How many they sell is up to them.

@cwong15:
A portable that you can plug into your Tv is still a portable. Announcing something like that would stop people buying the 3DS. Some kind of dongle or micro-console would plug into your Tv. That would slow Wii U sales. There is no "third pillar".

In fact the closest thing to a third form factor is VR. Even then, it'd ba a home console first. The PSVR is a PS4 first for example.

How can it kill sales without being on the shelves? Well that's easy. Who's going to buy a Wii U when something better is coming out in a few months? Are Nintendo slowing things down? Well sure they are, because they know what the NX is! But things would slow even if they had Wii U content because the NX will be the home console to get.

Nah, it's only May. The only way for Wii U sales to drop so suddenly is for Nintendo to pretty much stop trying NOW. Remember all those reports of stock shortages in Japan? I still say NX comes too late to significantly affect Wii U sales because the real marketing push must happen after Christmas. There's no point trying to sell or create hype about something people cannot buy before Christmas. Until then, only those of us who obsessively haunt Nintendo rumor sites and pore over Nintendo financial statements will know about the NX.

@Project_Dolphin: I think it is safe to assume Zelda will be a launch title. My guess is that the delay was because they reworked the engine to work on NX.

Which reminds me, E3 might give some hints about NX. If the game uses the game pad heavily, it is quite possible that NX has something similar. Or it might give some clues about the graphics chip, if they decide to run the NX version.

@cwong15:
Again, do you think that people are going to go out and buy a Wii U after Nintendo has told them that the NX is a new home console? They don't have to launch the NX for people to make decisions about whether it's worth getting the current systems or not. Nobody wants to buy a console only for something better to launch the very next year. Especially if the existing thing doesn't have much of a future.

@Project_Dolphin:
Software sales aren't just for new titles. Case and point the best selling games on 3DS and Wii U in 2015. Mario Kart, Smash Bros and Animal Crossing were still some of the best selling games. It wasn't just the new releases that sold.

And hardware sales aren't nessisarily tied to software sales. You should know this intuitively. I have a Wii U but I didn't buy a Wii U last year. But I did buy a few games for it. Just because nobody is buying into the platform does not mean that people stop buying moew games for it. Hell, the Wii software sales of 7.3mill despite only selling 100k pieces of hardware. That's also while being a system that has been completely neglected by Nintendo since the release of Skyward Sword.