the+shpydar wrote:
Technologically capable? Probably. Actually implemented? Probably not.
We're technologically capable now.
In Australia, which really does lag behind the rest of the world when it comes to Internet infrastructure, we're just starting to build the National Broadband Network (NBN) that will provide 100mbps (initially) to 93 per cent of the population. That's enough for digital download to be the default for media delivery, and it can be done now.
Of course, it'll probably take 20 years before everyone treats those kinds of connections like telephone lines - but point is the (developed) world is in the process of implementing this kind of stuff now.
I can assure you, more advanced nations, such as South Korea or Japan, are already more than ready for digital download to become the standard, but the problem is publishers and developers in those countries are waiting for the rest of the world to catch up before the AAA stuff is worth releasing as DD-only (after all, it's a little hard to have a AAA title for one or two regions in the world).
So really, 20 years for America, Australia and New Zealand, and developed Europe to finish implementing and marketing off stable, fast broadband to the majority of the population. The analysts I speak to seem to reckon that'll happen, businesses are expecting it to happen, and Governments are on board.

