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Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

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MajinSoul

@JaxonH Oh definitely. I kept hearing a lot of praise about the OLED version but it's just something that you have to see for yourself to truly grasp. I've now played roughly 2 hours in handheld with it and am very happy with the upgrade.

MajinSoul

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JaxonH

Switch will definitely be past PS4 and GameBoy by January 1st, which puts the final hurdles behind it in the final stretch to the DS/PS2.

How far will it go? Even assuming Switch 2 released next May, Switch will still hit 126m sold by March 31st, and even with a new system out would still likely sell another 10 million in FY7, and 5m in FY8. Which means 142m is the bare minimum total.

If, however, Switch 2 doesn't release until 2024, I think it's got it in the bag.

PLAYING
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3DS: Fire Emblem Fates - Revelations
SD: Sniper Elite 5, Jedi Fallen Order
XSX / PS5 / PC: [none]

Jesus is Lord.

Magician

The Switch will become the best selling home console of all-time. It's not a question of "if", but "when". Although I'm not sure it the Switch will pass the PS2's software sales of 1.5B ? The Switch will soon be Nintendo's first platform to sell 1B+ pieces of software.
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Edited on by Magician

Switch Physical Collection - 1,084 games (as of February 3rd, 2023)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

Buizel

@Magician Honestly surprised Switch hasn't already surpassed PS2 on software sales for several reasons:
1. PS2 had a reputation for being adopted by casuals (much like the Wii), who tend to buy fewer games.
2. There are more adult gamers these days, who have more disposable income to spend on games.
3. Games are cheaper now, accounting for inflation.
4. Cheap download titles are available and abundant.

Then again, as a portable system you probably have fewer people sharing Switches than did PS2s, and you will have many more people with multiple Switches than had multiple PS2s. So this will affect attach rate also.

Also I guess many people used PS2 as their "primary" console, whereas many people might be buying Switch for exclusives / a few portable games and doing most of their gaming elsewhere...

Do we know what is included / excluded in software sales?

Edited on by Buizel

At least 2'8".

Giancarlothomaz

@JaxonH didnt Sony plan to suport PS4 until 2025? how can Nintendo Switch surpass it total lifetime sales if the console is gonna stay in the market until 2025?should we consider 2025 the year Nintendo Switch finaly surpass PS4 total lifetime sales not this year? 117.02 milions hardware sold is not the final lifetime sales for PS4(PS4 will problaby will sell around 125/130 milions hardware sold) so don't celebrate yet Nintendo Switch surpassing PS4 total lifetime sales(celebrate it in 2025, PS4 final year in the market).
https://gamerant.com/ps4-new-game-releases-expected-end-2025/

Edited on by Giancarlothomaz

i like HD Rumble.

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JaxonH

@Giancarlothomaz
???

PS4 sales are dead in the water. Doesn't matter how long they support it. They're selling like, a million units per year. It's trivial.

Switch is selling at least 10x as many consoles as PS4, maybe even 20x at this point. So PS4 sales will continue to trickle in, but once Switch passes PS4 the gap will only continue to widen. Idk where PS4 will end up, but I do know Switch surpassing it is imminent, and once it does, it'll continue to blow past and leave it in the dust. Doesn't matter how long PS4 stays on the market when it's doing such small numbers now.

Edited on by JaxonH

PLAYING
NS: Fire Emblem Engage, Persona 4 Golden, Crisis Core FFVII, Monster Hunter Rise, Mario Rabbids SoH
3DS: Fire Emblem Fates - Revelations
SD: Sniper Elite 5, Jedi Fallen Order
XSX / PS5 / PC: [none]

Jesus is Lord.

Haruki_NLI

@Giancarlothomaz They're still releasing games for it because like with most platforms, there are a lot of people there. 116 million to be exact.

When the new console comes out, you dont just stop making games for the previous one with that kind of install base. Thats where a lot of your money comes from in the early years of the new console, which they sell for a loss.

And PS4 sales went off a cliff the moment Sony mentioned the PS5. Its remarkable. Wasn't even when it came out, it was when they talked about it. It's spent the past....three years or so limping.

Now Playing: Ratchet and Clank: Rift Apart, Crash Bandicoot 4

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JaxonH

@Giancarlothomaz
Because over 100 million people already own one. Games aren't just sold to new owners, they're sold to existing owners.

They could never sell another PS4 again, yet continue to make games and sell to the existing audience for years to come.

Don't think you thought this through all the way 😉

PLAYING
NS: Fire Emblem Engage, Persona 4 Golden, Crisis Core FFVII, Monster Hunter Rise, Mario Rabbids SoH
3DS: Fire Emblem Fates - Revelations
SD: Sniper Elite 5, Jedi Fallen Order
XSX / PS5 / PC: [none]

Jesus is Lord.

Magician

A platform might be discontinued but the games keep coming.
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Switch Physical Collection - 1,084 games (as of February 3rd, 2023)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

EaglyTheKawaiiShika

@Magician and they don’t stop coming hey now your an all star

(i had to do it)

Edited on by EaglyTheKawaiiShika

Top Games, Xenoblade 1 2 3, Noir a tomato/replicats, Mario galaxy 1 2, MGS5, Stardew valley, Hollow knight, Yakuza Like a dragon, GOW 2018, Doom 2016, Dragon quest 11, Bug fables, FE3H
Holy S##t guys Puss in boots 2 is great
https://youtu.be/bEoNNYyVNxc - Puss in boots 2 preview

JaxonH

@Giancarlothomaz
A miracle? Are you not listening to the discussion? It would be a miracle for it not to surpass PS2 at this point. The only thing that can stop it is a 2023 Switch 2 release.

PLAYING
NS: Fire Emblem Engage, Persona 4 Golden, Crisis Core FFVII, Monster Hunter Rise, Mario Rabbids SoH
3DS: Fire Emblem Fates - Revelations
SD: Sniper Elite 5, Jedi Fallen Order
XSX / PS5 / PC: [none]

Jesus is Lord.

Giancarlothomaz

@JaxonH you know that nearly impossible to any console to surpass PS2 total lifetime sales(if Nintendo Switch managed to archive this, i will be the first person to admit that i was wrong and pop some champagne/wine to celebrate this ocasion).

i like HD Rumble.

Twitter:

JaxonH

@Giancarlothomaz
???

Why would it be "nearly impossible"? Maybe for other consoles it's nearly impossible, but for Switch? A console that'll be at 126 million sold at the 6 year mark in March? Not only is it not "nearly impossible", it's incredibly probable

As of March, Switch will only be 29m away from the record, with momentum of around 20 million units per year still being sold. You tell me, what kind of mathematics are you using where selling 20 million a year can't reach 29 million sold before Switch production ends?

Even if Switch does 18m for FY7, it'll only be 11m away from the record at the 7 year mark. The sheer momentum at that point will ensure another 11m units are sold over the following 2 years (be it 9m and 2m, or 8m and 3m, etc).

Is it possible it doesn't quite reach the record? Sure. It's possible. If momentum slows more in line with past Nintendo consoles after Switch 2 releases, it may fall 5-10m short. But given the dominance of Switch these past 6 years with little let up, I don't think it unreasonable to expect 2 years or overlapping sales in the 6m/yr range.

At minimum Switch will come within 15 million of the record. Bare minimum. At most, it could reach 155, maybe even 160 million sold. It just depends on when Switch 2 releases.

PLAYING
NS: Fire Emblem Engage, Persona 4 Golden, Crisis Core FFVII, Monster Hunter Rise, Mario Rabbids SoH
3DS: Fire Emblem Fates - Revelations
SD: Sniper Elite 5, Jedi Fallen Order
XSX / PS5 / PC: [none]

Jesus is Lord.

Magician

We'll get the nine-months earning report from Nintendo in February.

Nintendo will probably report the Switch having sold in the neighborhood of 122m lifetime in that report.

In less than 24 months after that it'll pass the PS2's lifetime sales.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/index.html

Edited on by Magician

Switch Physical Collection - 1,084 games (as of February 3rd, 2023)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

Giancarlothomaz

@JaxonH PS2 was a sale monster, no other console has managed to reach it sales potencial(partly thanks to piracy and it DVD player, Switch is expensive to very people making it hard to reach PS2/DS sale numbers, also it sales in it steadly decline, each trimestres Switch sell less and less.

i like HD Rumble.

Twitter:

JaxonH

@Giancarlothomaz
Ya, it was.

But hello, it's nearly 2023, and Switch is on track for 126 million sold in exactly 6 years. You can't argue against Mathematical facts

So uh, guess what. Switch is also a sales monster. You can say "it's expensive" but A) that's irrelevant if people are still buying it in record numbers, and B) it's actually super cheap. Inflation being accounted for, Switch Lite is the lowest price entry for a main console since the $99 GameCube and Wii.

You're looking at all the reasons why PS2 sold so great and all these theoretical reasons why Switch won't surpass it, and that would make sense if we were having this discussion in 2017.

But it's December 2022. And Switch will be at 126 million sold after 6 years. Again, you can't argue against the facts. And the facts are, Switch IS on pace to outsell PS2.

It's like watching a runner run a race, trying to beat the Olympic time of 1 minute, and they get 80% of the way to the finish line in 30 seconds, and you say, "they'll never make it in time!" It's ridiculous.

Edited on by JaxonH

PLAYING
NS: Fire Emblem Engage, Persona 4 Golden, Crisis Core FFVII, Monster Hunter Rise, Mario Rabbids SoH
3DS: Fire Emblem Fates - Revelations
SD: Sniper Elite 5, Jedi Fallen Order
XSX / PS5 / PC: [none]

Jesus is Lord.

JaxonH

@Giancarlothomaz
See for yourself.

Switch is outpacing PS2. It's literally a question of whether Nintendo holds off on Switch 2 long enough to beat the record. That's the only thing that will stop Switch smashing the all time record.

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Also, consider this

Aligned global hardware sales are showing much longer legs, with a more gentle decline. Longer tail end sales vs DS is precisely why Switch will be able to catch it (DS is basically same as PS2), given the time.

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And the software sales go alongside that. Much higher software sales means a vibrant platform that is still alive and well. And the more vibrant a platform is, the longer it can last before momentum slows to a stop.

Untitled

Edited on by JaxonH

PLAYING
NS: Fire Emblem Engage, Persona 4 Golden, Crisis Core FFVII, Monster Hunter Rise, Mario Rabbids SoH
3DS: Fire Emblem Fates - Revelations
SD: Sniper Elite 5, Jedi Fallen Order
XSX / PS5 / PC: [none]

Jesus is Lord.

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