Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@skywake Quite the contrary, I don't entirely ignore others' posts and I read all of the important parts. Case in point, you predicted that the Switch Pro would be released in 2021 (wrong) and that the Wii U would've been a smashing hit if only it had come out in 2010 with Skyward Sword as its launch title (one of the worst-selling 3D Zeldas; recall that the rehash, released during the Switch's prime, did even worse than the Link's Awakening rehash). This is in spite of the fact the Wii was very much alive in late 2011 (Just Dance 3 sold 10 million) and had room for the likes of New Super Mario Bros. U, Super Mario 3D World, etc. A new console for the sake of a new console was a mistake.

As for declining hardware sales, while the Switch really isn't doing too badly (it has a chance of catching the DS and PS2), they're largely irrelevant. There's a ceiling for how many people are interested in a given console, so there comes a point when everyone that wants a Switch already has one. But hardware makes up a very small percentage of Nintendo's profits, as the margin per console is not very much. Software, which has much lower manufacturing costs (zero for digital games), is their bread and butter. When you have lightning in a bottle (130,000,000 Switch users and counting) and every new game will automatically move 15,000,000 copies, it makes sense to continue making games for that system as long as possible. Which is why every Switch 2 prediction so far has been wrong.

@Euler
Hrm... I don't disagree with most of what you're saying, honestly, but my question is: If the Switch 2 is really just a juiced-up Switch by and large, well then why not release it in 2024? Especially if there will be a year or two where many games will work on either system, just like how Sony and Microsoft played their most recent transitions.

It would be a great way to sort of wean people off the original Switch and onto the new hardware over the course of a couple years, and I'm sure tons of indies (which do really well on the Switch) will remain playable on both for a very long time.

Anyway, the only thing I think you haven't adequately addressed is the very obviously lean release schedule for the Switch. Now, I actually think the upcoming first-party stuff looks really good, but you can't deny there just isn't any bait out there for bigger stuff like we usually have. It's kind of like last call has gone out at the bar, and the beer isn't any worse, it's just very clear there isn't any more coming after this round.

So you basically cherrypick then.

@Euler
Software sales have also peaked and if you were even a little bit self aware you would realise your point about Skyward Sword doesn't really help your new angle here. Yes, Skyward Sword was a game that got a fair bit of resistance from the gaming community. It didn't sell particularly well. But it's also a game that launched on the Wii at a time when we were past peak motion controls and people were migrating to HD consoles. People had decided they weren't interested before it had even released. It was motion controls and SD graphics, why do we want that? If it had been a HD release instead it would have been the first HD Zelda. Perceptions would have been very different

Also, I think you misunderstand what I'm actually saying here. New hardware does not necessarily mean they hard drop support for the old platform. You cited Just Dance, those games were still coming out and selling well on Wii deep into the 2010s. Wii U didn't stop that train, Wii HD wouldn't have either. Switch was as much of a 3DS successor as it was Wii U but there were still Metroids and Pokemans coming out on 3DS after launch. New hardware does not mean that install base evaporates. Assuming decent and transparent backwards compatibility there's no reason why Switch 2 couldn't release this year and something like a Switch Sports Resort couldn't come out as a straight up Switch game in 2025

The fact is, the Switch hardware spec is increasingly a drain on software sales. That's the primary problem. People increasingly don't want to invest in this platform, they're going to Steam or PlayStation. The secondary problem, hardware sales, is simply a reflection of that same fact. Hardware is a bigger investment and is a bit more forward looking. It always falls first. Software always follows

Also note, again, I'm not some doom Sayer. I want the Switch to continue to do well and I have the receipts to prove it. Litterally. I bought an OLED yesterday because my launch Switch has seen better days. It's in my interest for Switch to be the primary focus of Nintendo for a while yet. The thing is, unlike some here, I'm not here trying to justify purchases or fight in the trenches in some kind of console war

I just see what's essentially a 10 year old tablet device being sold for $500AU. Then I think that maybe Nintendo could be selling a better value hardware product here. Or I see people like my Niece treating herself to a PS5 specifically to play Hogwarts Legacy because the Switch version was late and was going to be inferior. And I think that that's a lost sale right there. I scroll through the sales on the eShop and eventually tire of that 3s gap when loading the next page of items. Then I think how many software sales have they lost because this CPU is struggling with what is essentially a web page?

And yes, I thought a Switch Pro made sense. I still think it made sense. Frankly I think there was enough smoke there that it was a thing. Hell, maybe in 10 years some Nintendo dev does a talk at GDC and shows the thing in the same way they that they just casually confirmed GBA was planned for '99 before Pokemon, WonderSwan and the GBC. Who knows

And to be blunt, setting up my OLED over the last couple of days..... I'm, if anything, even more convinced that Pro was a thing and most certainly would have been a good move. This hardware has no right having a screen this good without the ability to do HDR. They even updated the dock so it uses a newer spec HDMI adaptor. I sit back playing Mario Kart 8 on my OLED TV or in bed in the morning and think.... This entire chain is capable of 4K/60 docked or 720p/90 in both cases with HDR. The entire chain..... except the SoC itself. It's an odd little device. I'm not entirely convinced this was the original plan

@Euler Nintendo themselves have said that they waited too long to release a Wii successor, as by the time Wii U launched HD TVs were widely adopted and people had long moved on to the 360/PS3 (and awaiting the XB1/PS4) or away from video games as a whole and they had lost all momentum they had with Wii.

Had they released a Wii HD in 2010 alongside Super Mario Galaxy 2 and DKC Returns with Skyward Sword in the launch year? Might not have been a smashing hit but certainly would have done better than Wii U did.

Point is that you can't wait until you lose all momentum to release new hardware for the sake of milking software sales off the current hardware as people will have moved on to other options. They must strike while the iron is still hot.

@IceClimbers
Much agreement

And yeah, I'm not sure if a "Wii HD" would have been dramatically different to Wii U. But I doubt it could have been worse and at the time it was painfully obvious they were falling off a cliff. Nintendo didn't have a product for the HDTVs everyone was buying. They definitely lost some revenue in that period by being too late with the HD transition

I mean, outside of Just Dance how many Wii games were million sellers after mid 2010? DKCR, Skyward Sword, Mario Party 9.... then like Skylanders and Lego Harry Potter

I actually agree with what @Euler was saying there, you don't release new hardware when every title you release is moving millions. That's precisely why the Wii U was far too late for a HD console from Nintendo. The Wii was past that point already, consumer sentiment had shifted, people wanted a more traditional and HD capable console

To some extent the same kind of sentiment is happening for Switch. And those same pressures are why now is the time for Switch 2. People are slowly starting to want post-HD resolutions, HDR, PS4 tier portables. I don't think Metroid Prime 4 will break 5mill if it's Switch only, at this stage I doubt Wind Waker HD outsells Skyward Sword HD

I realize this has nothing to do with your point, but no metroid release has ever gotten particularly close to 5 million. If Nintendo does manage to pull that off, that would be a huge win for the series. I don't know if the data is 100% accurate, but sales numbers appear to be less than 2 million for Prime remastered and less than 4 million for Metroid Dread, the best selling game in the series. I love Metroid (though not Prime because it makes me motion sick), but Metroid has always been a bit niche at least in terms of being one of Nintendo's main IPs. Not quite in Nintendo's top 20 IPs, it's one of those series where lots of people have heard of it, but outside communities like this, not that many people have actually played much of it. It would be neat if Nintendo does manage to make it more popular though. I agree that if it only comes out on Switch 1 with Switch 1 graphics, it will remain a medium seller at best even if it wins awards.

@FishyS
All good points and of course this is all entirely hypothetical alternate-universe stuff. Although, alternate universe or not, we kinda have some precedent here. Tears of the Kingdom is probably going to land at ~2/3rds of BotW's sales, Skyward Sword did about half of Twilight Princess' sales, Majora's Mask 3D was just over half of Ocarina of Time 3D's sales. Super Mario Galaxy sold a tad less than twice as many copies as 2. A pretty clear pattern there

My gut feeling is that, all things being equal and assuming the quality is AAA tier, if Metroid Prime 4 had launched in 2019 or something I think it breaks 5mill. If they launch it as a straight up Switch game right now with no Switch 2 in sight? I'm not sure it gets past 2.5mill. But as a Switch 2 launch game? It's a becomes a bit of the head eating the tail. It would sell Switch 2 as much as the Switch 2 launch window sells it. Probably breaks 5mill again

Same is probably true of new 3D Mario or whatever else Nintendo might be cooking up

If any Metroid game is gonna break 5 million, it's gonna be Prime 4. At this point, even as a non-Metroid gamer myself, Prime 4 has taken on this hype and mystique even for me and I can't quite explain it. It's simply due to the incredible amount of excitement and chatter from people who have actually played the Prime games (I did play Prime Remastered when it came out and enjoyed it, but it's not totally my jam).

The success of the Prime remaster, generally revered as one of 2023's best games, alongside the impact of Dread should mean that the appetite for Prime 4 is even greater than ever. Not to mention the 'impending' ports of Prime 2 & 3 (reportedly still on the burner, but not lost)

I wonder if Nintendo goes all-in on a Switch2/Prime4 direct? Announce release date of Switch 2, with Prime 4 being the 'flagship' launch title.... and in the meantime, they announce a quick shadow drop of Prime 2 and 3 (on original Switch) to whet the appetites of consumers even more.

Given this is where I've taken the discussion I should probably point out that I'm kinda in the same boat as @FishyS with the Prime games. Personally. I love the idea of Metroid Prime, I love Metroid, Dread is comfortably one of my favourite games on Switch. I got 3 when it launched on Wii and played the hell out if it, I downloaded the Trilogy on Wii U, I picked up remastered. I also recognise that they're generally quality titles.....

........ but I generally struggle with that kind of FPS. That kind of exploratory corridor style gameplay. I just can't play them for any length of time before I feel physically sick. Not all FPS games oddly, a lot I'm fine with. If they're a bit more open or a bit more vibrant I'm fine. If they're competitive style titles and you can get a bit of a handle on the map I'm also fine. I can also be fine if it's very linear and incredibly obvious where you are and where you're going. Also, I tend to be a bit better on PC with a KB + Mouse for some reason

But Metroid is very much NOT that sort of game so.... Prime is particularly well placed to be nausea city for me. I'm sure I'll end up getting Prime 4 when it comes out. It'll be a milestone release whenever it comes out and wherever it lands. But with all honesty I can't say I'm jumping up and down in anticipation for it

If Prime 4 ends up being the launch title, I’m not getting the next system at launch. Not really a fan of Metroid at all.

I see the short term win of slapping Prime 4 as a launch title, but Nintendo think much more longer term. Nothing wrong in honouring the announcement (I mean they do need to still support Switch lol) and then 'remaster' it a couple of years down the line. Or maybe it will simply upscale on the new system. That appeases everyone. Besides, there are better launch titles for a system than Metroid and we don't know their roadmap for it. But, I think by now, they don't announce a new console without at the bare minimum announcing Mario, Zelda and their karts will be there soon.

I think Prime 4 being a Switch 2 launch title benefits Switch 2 more than it does Prime 4 because Prime 4 by itself isn't a suitable launch lineup but turning the situation into a suitable launch lineup would mean Prime 4 gets overshadowed by something like 3D Mario.

Prime 4 would benefit the most from releasing in a quiet spot in the current Switch era so the focus can be on that game. Kind of like how Splatoon had Summer 2015 pretty much all to itself after launching in late May.

In terms of launch titles, I feel like 3D Mario definitely sells the console if it is exclusive to Switch 2, but Mario also isn't a great example of improved performance/graphics. We're already used to Mario looking beautiful and running well with Wonder/Odyssey. Even if more complicated things are happening in hardware behind the cartoon-y Mario style, I'm not sure most players would appreciate that subtlety. Prime 4 I could imagine being a more 'obvious' example of what Nintendo could do by optimizing a game for better hardware. I think Nintendo could use at least one first party 'wow, that runs on Nintendo hardware' kind of game for early Switch 2.

I think Metroid Prime would be the most suitable title to showcase HDR. You've got the dead black of space next to the searing brightness of blaster fire. Plus it's a game with a reputation of pushing visuals so it'd be very easy to sell that story

Prime 4 as a cross platform launch, new Mario as Switch 2 exclusive in the launch window

I'm still of the belief Prime 4 isn't releasing for 10 years, if ever honestly. We'll have to wait and see, but given how Nintendo hasn't really talked about the game in a while, I feel like it's probably in dev hell. Especially given how many updates they gave when TotK was delayed and in development.

@VoidofLight Prime 4 and Silksong are both definitely coming out in the next 0-10 years. Maybe. 😝

The only reason I think Prime 4 is a launch game is because it's basically the only game we know about from Nintendo more broadly that's not a first half of 2024 Switch title. And most of those titles are ports/remasters. With Prime 4 and Retro more generally, it's been a good while. Surely they have something by now. So it's a fairly safe bet. Especially compared to the alternate predictions which basically just involve randomly throwing darts at a poster of Nintendo IPs

But then again, the stuff that was reported by Did You Know Gaming in the last year RE Retro around the post-Prime 3 period? I think the caution from some is fair. It doesn't sound like a particularly healthy culture over there, at least based on what has been said by the people no-longer involved. They don't paint a particularly flattering picture. And Prime 4 did already get the reset button once

But then again, the remaster of Prime was a solid effort so..... who knows....

@Wolfleaf Funnily enough, depending on how my journey through the Trilogy on Wii goes, I might be doing exactly that in a couple months time XD

I have full faith that MP4's gonna turn out a banger though. We've already seen what Retro can do in regards to Prime on Switch with MP1 Remastered and if a remaster of a 20-year-old game can look/be THIS good on a system that is, for all intents and purposes, a suped-up iPad?

yeah they're absolutely going to make MP4 worth the long, long, LONG wait XD