@Euler Ehhh.. I'm not saying that Nintendo is going to fully axe support of the Switch by dropping a new console. They'll probably support it like the 3DS, where it still got a couple of games while they were trying to get people to jump to Switch. The thing Nintendo really needs for the next console in order to get it to sell is marketing that isn't confusing and games that people will actually want to buy the next console for. That's the reason why the Wii U failed. The marketing being abysmal and the lack of system pushing games. Sure, they had a 2D mario, but people were sort of tired of New Super Mario Bros.
The problem is that continuing to produce Switches while only releasing the occasional token Kirby spinoff and another ten editions of Just Dance would still mean splitting the market and all of the major games would be for a console with a much, much lower install base. With the Switch, a new E ticket game sells 15,000,000 copies without breaking a sweat (and probably a lot more than that).
Few posts here I think it's worth responding to. These ideas just don't die despite it being blindingly obvious that we're building up to new hardware. There's certainly enough smoke.
The Wii U was released too early (the other two 8th gen consoles came out a year later), and releasing a new console just for the sake of having a new console was clearly a losing strategy
As others have said, this is complete revisionism. The Wii U failed for a combination of reasons and it's FAR more complicated than saying it was just "too early". You have to also factor in what it was, what it was trying to do, what options consumers had, how their development team transitioned, how the market reacted etc
If we're talking whether the Wii U was "too early" or "too late"? I'd argue it was both. It was too late for a HD Wii. Especially if you consider how long it took to get staples like Mario Kart, Zelda, Mario, Smash. Wii sales peaked in 2007/08, 360/PS3 sales peaked in 2011. People were ready to move on from the Wii to a HD console, the Wii U wasn't really ready with software to catch those users until late 2013. And by that point they were going up against GTA5, The Last of Us and the launch of the PS4/XBOne. Wii HD ideally should have launched with Skyward Sword and Wii Motion Plus in 2010
Was it also too early? Well yes, I would argue it was also too early in some respects. Fundamentally the Wii U was an attempt to merge development of their portable and non-portable games. Reducing development effort. The problem is, in 2012 you couldn't build a portable console that was decent enough to plug into a HDTV. Also ARM didn't scale up and X86/PPC didn't scale down. That came later and was what eventually happened with Switch.... but the Wii U was too early for that, that hardware wasn't possible in 2012. They should have delayed their first attempt at a hybrid console until at least 2015
Of course, the Switch isn't at all in the same position so the comparison is pointless anyways. New hardware wouldn't be "too early" in the same way it was with the Wii U because, well, the Switch already exists. What new hardware development are we waiting on? And as for it being too late? Well, I wouldn't say it's too late.... yet.... but the landscape is certainly starting to move in the portable space. If they sit on their hands for too long they could find themselves behind the curve like they were with the transition to HD
Yeah, the Wii U should've been launched in 2010 (only 4 years after the Wii came out) with Skyward Sword as its launch title. I'm sure that would've done it. The Wii U flopped largely because most people didn't need/want a Wii with slightly better graphics. And it was released too early because the Wii should've had another good year or two (which would've been more profitable). The same thing is the case with the Switch. "Switch but with infinitesimally better graphics" isn't something most people need/want, and the Switch has at least another good year or two in it.
The only "smoke" is internet rumours, "there's bigger chips now", and the relative lack of major games scheduled for release in 2024 and beyond. The former two points were repeated ad nauseum during the Switch Pro era (which you were completely wrong about, by the way). The latter point is a possibility, but it will automatically go away when a new E ticket game is revealed at the next Nintendo direct. Meanwhile, the Switch still sells at full-price (new console reveals are always preceded by a price drop), Switch games continue to sell extremely well, console generations are going to only get longer from here on out (since graphics aren't actually improving anymore at this point), and a new console isn't necessary.
Ok, I'll say it. The Switch and PS5 are the same generation. The Wii U was an 8th generation console, but it was succeeded by the Switch in 2017 (5 years after its release).
Nintendo has put out well over 20 distinct devices so I still claim it is a bit arbitrary to say there has been precisely 9 generations. Switch is, afterall, a portable. However that may be an argument for linguists and game historians so I will happily be over-ruled. Regardless, if you do consider Switch and PS5 gen 9, Switch is an example of Nintendo doing extremely well by putting out a new console of a generation significantly earlier than the other companies did. By that logic, I don't know why Nintendo wouldn't try to repeat their win and put out a new console ASAP. I don't think Nintendo is using that exact logic, but I do think they will want to try to stay ahead of the curve in their own niche as Skywake said.
Only some of them actually count as new a hardware generation though. A different coloured N64 or a Switch with longer battery life don't count. At minimum the new system has to have many exclusives and do something the previous console didn't. Nintendo recognizes the NES, SNES, N64, Gamecube, Wii, Wii U, Switch, Game Boy, Game Boy Advance, DS, and 3DS as distinct hardware generations.
@LinkxPeach Its Gamefreak. Gamefreak is the developer of the Pokemon series, not Nintendo. Also while every three years is generally the time-frame generations in the series have, I feel like Gamefreak would probably break that cycle in order to get a generation out on the anniversary year of the series. They tend to celebrate their big anniversaries, and I feel like they'd wish to do the same again in 2026. Even with the three year cycle in mind, that doesn't mean we'll get sequels to Gen 10 either when Gen 10 ends up happening. They could do sequels, but they could also do DLC for gen 10, or even go back to third versions. They could even pull an X and Y where gen 10 is cut short for some unknown reason. Honestly, we don't truly even know if gen 10 will be 2025 or 2026. People thought Pokemon Legends Arceus was going to be the 2022 game, and then Gen 9 happened the same year. There's no telling what Gamefreak is going to do at this point.
Yup, you right. Gamefreak had a four-year cycle between Gen III, and Gen IV. If Gamefreak was to make Gen 10 sequels, they would make DLC packs for that generation. As for Gen VI, they’d probably make third versions after they released Gen V Remakes.
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@Euler
You're very good at ignoring entirely people's posts and just making another post so you can hear your own voice. Again, just look at the sales trend for the Wii back in the day. That curve isn't a result of the Wii U launching and cannibalising its sales. For one thing the rapid decline happened before the Wii U was even announced and secondly the Wii U didn't really take any sales....
There was a drop in sales of 7mill units between 2008 and 2010 for the Wii. Another 6mill decline between 2010 and 2011. That wasn't the Wii U being announced, the average consumer isn't really aware of console announcements, that wasn't people migrating to the PS4/XBOne. Those sales went to the 360 and PS3, those consoles had peak sales in 2010/2011. The Wii U was out, if anything, too late to compete with the hardware it was designed to compete against
Anecdotal point, I remember in late 2011 being at the shops with my brother and he was asking about what console to buy my niece for Christmas. They had a Wii which they got in 2007 but my Niece had grown out of it a bit and by then they'd upgraded from a small CRT to like a 46" Plasma TV. I didn't give him an answer. I told him that 2011 was kinda a rough time to upgrade, Nintendo was going to have something new next year and we were probably only a couple of years away from the PS4 and "Xbox 720". My Niece got an XBox 360 for Christmas
So again, they were too late to release what a lot of people actually brought the Wii U as. The Wii U was, more or less, a HD Wii for the people who actually brought into it. By the time the Wii U released and with the additional cost of the screen the 360/PS3 were significantly better value. As a HD Wii, the Wii U in 2013 was a tough sell, it was a good $100AU more than the competition and wasn't getting stuff like GTAV. Unless you were particularly into Nintendo's IP you weren't buying it. If it had been a 1-2 years earlier without the screen and at a lower price? It probably does better. For what people brought it for it was way too late and way too expensive
But again, for what it was trying to do? It was too early. The off-TV stuff was great but streaming low latency is inherently compromised. They had to squash the resolution down to 480p both to keep the cost down but also to keep the performance, both to stream and to render, acceptable. Also, fundamentally, while people like me LOVED off-TV play I think most people want a portable that's not limited to compressed 480p that can only be played in a few rooms of the house. I loved the Wii U but.... the hardware wasn't quite ready for prime time. They gambled on what was basically a beta-test of the unified console concept that they perfected on Switch. That gamble could have landed, in theory, but people could smell it was a beta-test and were having none of it
So to repeat again so when you skip this point again it's even more apparent. The Wii U was TOO LATE to compete as a HD version of the Wii. To most consumers who looked at or even brought the Wii U, a HD Wii was what they were buying. But that ship had sailed, Nintendo missed their window. People were already moving on to the 360/PS3 from the Wii before the Wii U was even announced. When it hit shelves the 360/PS3 were at their peak, Wii U was $100AU more with less games and a not-quite-portable screen
A cheaper Wii HD with no screen launching in 2010/11 with Skyward Sword HD and updated motion controls? That competes with Kinect and PSMove as people migrate to HDTVs. Better than the Wii U competed with GTAV and The Last of Us. And we all know that the Switch further down the road competes pretty well against the PS4. So again, the Wii U was too late for what it was and too early for what it was trying to be. There really isn't much of a case to argue otherwise, thems just the facts. So really, what is your argument here? That the Wii U launched at precisely the right time? Come on.....
@VoidofLight
Yep, my mistake, B/W not X/Y. In my head for some reason I never really think of the second batch of games on the DS as another generation of games. I just kinda.... mentally skip over B/W & B2/W2. Gen 1 started it, Gen 2 expanded, Gen 3 added natures/abilities, Gen 4 split physical/special ___________ Gen 6 went 3D
But yeah, fundamentally my point is more that you can't read into precedents, patterns and PR. They're just going to do what makes sense for the situation they find themselves in. And from a development perspective? This is going to be the softest console transition on Nintendo hardware outside of the transitions to Wii and GBC. And unlike those transitions we're in an era of account systems, online stores, patches and DLC
@LinkxPeach
As @FishyS said, SoC is "System on a Chip". In older devices or more modular devices you'll have separate chips for different functions. An SoC is basically a collection of all of those functions on one chip. i.e. the Tegra X1 SoC in the Switch contains two ARM CPUs, an NVidia GPU, a Video decoder and memory controller. The rumoured SoC for "Switch 2" is similar bud also adds AI acceleration and, supposedly, file decompression acceleration
In terms of that pattern of two generations before the next hardware. I mean sure, that's a pattern. But I don't think it's a deliberate decision, it's more of a side effect of timing. They've released a new generation of game every 3-4 years so because we've had three portable consoles in a row that lasted around 6-7 years we've had three portables in a row that had two generations of Pokemon. Gen 10 will almost surely be on Switch 2 because, well, we're probably a couple of years before Gen 10 is likely to land and by then Switch 2 will be out
.......... as @VoidofLight said but, not sure where you're getting "Gen 10 sequels" from. But sure, some stop-gap or DLS post Gen 10? That'll probably happen a year or two after Gen 10. Almost surely also on Switch 2. But we're not there yet
What does, “DLS” stands for? Gen X probably will be released in 2026 as VoidofLight stated for the Pokémon 30th Anniversary for the Nintendo Switch 2.
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I mean, fundamentally this nonsense argument comes down to some kind of revisionism for the Wii U. Some crazy belief that Nintendo would've been better off if they had delayed the Wii U even longer. Because, supposedly, launching the Wii U when it did just sucked sales away from the Wii which was doing fantastically well at the time just like the Switch is now.
The Wii sales decline from 24mill in 2008 down to 5mill in 2012? That was all Wii U man, they would've kept selling 15-20mill all the way through to 2015 if they hadn't released the Wii U. Never mind that they had dropped to 11mill in 2011, that was all because the Wii U had been announced at E3 that year. People just didn't want "better graphics", which is why the Wii was overtaken by both the 360 and PS3 in 2011 and the Wii U was immediately blown away by the PS4 and XBOne
The fact that the Switch for 2023 is probably down another ~5mill and has been consistently down by about 5mill every year since its peak in 2020? I mean, that's just because COVID sales were high yeah? Has nothing to do with devices like the Steam Deck moving an insignificant 4mill units in one year. Or other devices like the ROG Ally existing. PS5 sales being up something like 40% over last year? Come on, that doesn't matter. Everyone knows that any level of fidelity above the Switch is just wasted
What Nintendo really needs to do here is learn the lessons from the Wii U. When your sales are down and people are migrating to other consoles with better visuals? When the market is starting to pull back on your product. Do nothing..... do nothing and your next product can't possibly fail
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@skywake I feel like people who believe the Wii U was too early are just revising history in order to help argue why they personally don't want another console at the moment. A lot of the people who tend to use that argument also tend to be those who are unhappy with the prospect of having to purchase a new system when it drops.
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@VoidofLight
I know the argument well. I remember saying similar things about the Wii U of all consoles around 2015. I was convinced that BotW would be Wii U only and not cross generation. That wasn't an argument I made out of some kind of rational observation of the market. I was making an emotive argument based on the fact that I was trying to justify having been an early adopter of the Wii U
People saying there shouldn't be a Switch 2 are, without question, doing the same thing here. And they're as wrong about the Switch 2 as I was about NX.... well, kinda. My argument was that NX was a 3DS successor and, in a way, I kinda nailed that one
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Yeah people I guess forget that Wii fell off a cliff after 2010. Which granted is partially Nintendo's fault, because they had nothing going on between February and October (and those two games were Mario Sports Mix and the less popular and far less hyped Wii Kirby game).
I think the point of the Wii U needing to come out later is more that the Wii U needed more major games more quickly, because it also had a massive lack of much of anything after launch until August, and that wasn't gonna happen if it was coming out in 2012. I dunno if that would've made a difference, but I can't imagine it wouldn't have at least done better than it did. Maybe they would've finally figured out the marketing in time too, who knows?
I also won't disagree from a sales perspective about more powerful consoles to sell to keep up a company's momentum but in terms of actual games, how many popular PS5 games aren't also on Ps4 3 years in? It feels like PS5 sold partially out of the assumption you need to buy the next console more than the reality of actually needing the next console to play a good enough version of these games(I'd bet very few of those PS4 versions of post-PS5 era AAA games have even close to PS4 to Switch port level issues, and some of those ports are also pretty solid anyway).
but in terms of actual games, how many popular PS5 games aren't also on Ps4 3 years in? It feels like PS5 sold partially out of the assumption you need to buy the next console more than the reality of actually needing the next console to play a good enough version of these games.
I don't think all that many people bought PS5 to get slightly better running versions of games. In 2020 they may have bought it on the assumption they would need it. But now? Spider Man 2, Final Fantasy 16, FF7 remake, Baldur's Gate 3 , God of Ragnarok, etc. are on PS5 but not PS4. You would basically be missing all the most popular PS games and a chunk of popular third party games if you only had PS4. I assume the same thing will happen with Switch 2. It will be a more immediate upgrade in terms of some third party games being possible to port, but most people will buy it for the Switch 2 exclusives which trickle in at first but eventually are an avalanche some years in.
Ever since I've gotten a gaming PC, I've been touching my PS5 less and less. The console really doesn't have many exclusives that make it worth keeping around honestly. I know that not many people can afford PCs that run games on the same level of a PS5, if not greater.. but it feels like whatever is exclusive to PS5 basically just doesn't stay exclusive. I only really keep the console around so that I can plug my controller into my PC.
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@kkslider5552000
With that Wii -> Wii U transition, without question the fact that Nintendo was slow to ramp up software support was an issue. And I guess when people look back at the Wii U they see a rushed console. Like you said, maybe that's where people get this idea that the Wii U wasn't ready for launch. And they're not wrong. But just because Nintendo wasn't ready for a HD console launch doesn't mean the market wasn't
With 20:20 hindsight Nintendo should have released a HD console earlier than they did. I have no doubts in my mind that would've been the better move. Maybe they hold back on Wii Motion Plus so they can launch improved motion controls alongside their new HD console. Make that part of the hook instead of the second screen concept and launch at a price that was competitive with PS3/360. I mean.... it couldn't have been worse than what they actually did. The second screen gamble didn't pay off and the HD transition happened WAY quicker than Nintendo were prepared for, those were the two key mistakes of the Wii U
In terms of the bit about the PS5? I mean sure, I kinda agree. But the PS4 is discontinued so the PS5 is the console people are going to buy. And you can't really fault Sony for upgrading the spec of their product rather than continuing to sell 10 year old hardware. As it stands from what I can see PS5 is basically half of all console hardware sales ATM, Switch is ~30% and XBox Series is the remaining ~15%. Give or take. Like it or not that's what the market is buying given the options available
Also when we're talking about Nintendo releasing new hardware we're not really talking about going from PS4 to PS5 spec. We're more talking about going from a spec that's PS3 adjacent to maybe something that's slightly sub PS4 Pro. And lets be honest with ourselves, the Switch being underpowered and having ports that just barely get over the line..... we're not talking about the Digital Foundry pixel counting crowd here. We're talking super-normie tier gamer small talk here. The Switch being "underpowered" is something EVERYONE is aware of. I'd argue it's a non-trivial factor that would be giving normies as the local EBGames pause when deciding what console to buy little Jimmy for their Birthday
@VoidofLight@skywake To be fair delaying the Wii U would've fixed the Wii U's biggest problem, the gigantic 1st party droughts early on in the system's lifespan. Sony and Microsoft easily got away with releasing like 2 games a year at times in the PS4/XB1 era onwards because people generally buy Playstation and Xbox hardware for the big multiplatform games like CoD, Fortnite, GTA, FIFA/EA Sports FC, etc. but that doesn't work for Nintendo because people tend to buy Nintendo hardware for Nintendo games with 3rd party support being a bonus.
I do think that @skywake's idea about making late Wii era games be launch window games for the Wii U instead would've been more successful though. XB1 was irrelevant for awhile because Don Mattrick killed the Xbox brand's popularity but Sony did purposely time aggressive PS4 discounts with whenever Wii U had a big 1st party release incoming from 2014 onwards so releasing later would've had further problems with this.
I'd expect Switch to have more stamina than Wii though, fwiw. A four year old kid in my extended family asked for a Switch for Christmas, both their siblings have one already. Wiis were bought for households, Switches are increasingly being bought for individuals, as per other handhelds.
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@gcunit
Fair call, there's some truth to that. I feel like the Switch is selling to three different markets all at once. There's the enthusiast portable market, the "kids portable" market and the traditional home console market. They're being squeezed a bit on two of those fronts
As a home console they've always had to lean on Nintendo's IP to counter-balance their weaker and generally lower value raw hardware. They can put up a fight but ultimately it's a battle they'll never win. Non-portable hardware will just always beat hardware that can be portable in a price-to-performance battle. Multi-platform titles will always run worst on the weakest hardware. Great IP allows them to punch above their weight but... they're fundamentally outmatched and every year that goes by without a spec bump they fall further behind
As an enthusiast portable device? In theory they can win this battle comfortably. When the Switch launched it was THE enthusiast portable device. More than any other product in the history of portable devices. Switch at launch was what Sega failed to be with the GameGear, what Sony failed to be with the Vita. They're starting to fall behind now but it wouldn't take much for them to re-claim this crown. Especially with a more power efficient design and with content optimised specifically for their hardware, something which isn't true of devices like the Steam Deck
But as a kids portable? The Switch Lite has no competition. It owns that space. The closest competition the Switch Lite has are portable emulation devices and hand-me-down smartphones. Could it be better? I mean sure. Could it be even cheaper? Also yes. But it's already without equal
So when I say Nintendo needs new hardware soon? It's not for the "kids portable" market. It's for the other two markets where they can either close the gap (home console) or re-take the crown (enthusiast portable). The Switch is more than just a GameBoy, it's a hybrid console, it serves more than one market
@skywake There's absolutely some truth to what you're saying. I think the need for new hardware kind of stems from the multiple markets that Nintendo's used to running in. The Switch has done so, so well because families are buying multiple ones compared to something like a Wii. On top of that, the current Switch is totally falling behind on both fronts you mentioned. The quality of new third-party ports is laughable at times. Nintendo needs something closer to keep the people who use it as a home console and want to play their favorite games on the go.
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It came to mind that Splatoon 3 may hint at more specific timing of the next Direct. Looking at post-launch Directs:
September 2022 - Splatfest
February 2023 - DLC
June 2023 - Splatfest
September 2023 - DLC
If the pattern continues, the next Direct will reveal February's Splatfest theme. Splatfests get announced at least 2 weeks in advance because of Sneak Peek lasting for a week and February's Splatfest timing is likely 16th - 18th /17th - 19th (time zones) when comparing to the previous year which would suggest February 1st is the latest the Direct could be if it had Splatfest announcement.
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