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Topic: Predictable Pachter: 'Nintendo Probably Can't Recover from' Wii U

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Burning_Spear

1. Posted:

Here 's the full article. ...
http://venturebeat.com/2013/02/15/analyst-wii-u-a-mistake-for...

Pachter's points are as follows:

“I think they misfired on the Wii U. It’s just not that different from the other two [existing] consoles, and the gameplay isn’t as unique as the Wii. They made a mistake, it’s something they probably can’t recover from.”

"I think they have made a costly mistake [with the Wii U]. And their handheld business can’t save them in the face of cannibalization from smartphones and tablets."

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Vincent294

2. Posted:

Pachter can't recover from his bad predictions: Xenosaga, Zelda, & SSB4 will be awesome. It's the games that sell systems. Of course, I doubt Pachter will learn Wii U will have and can power good games & unique experiences. Split-screen FPS multiplayer sniping sucks. Wii U solution: separate the screens.

Edited on by Vincent294

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The_Groosefather

3. Posted:

How is the wiiu anything like any of the existing consoles

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Happy_Mask

4. Posted:

Trollbait again? Sigh
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kkslider5552000

5. Posted:

generic doom and gloom thread ver. 2.99999999999999999999999 etc, until broken keyboard

remember kids, if you fall for bait, you look worse

Edited on by kkslider5552000

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cheetahman91

6. Posted:

Oh boy, this is going to end well. :P

Anyways, I agree with that one guy that said it needs more games.

kkslider5552000 wrote:

generic doom and gloom thread ver. 2.99999999999999999999999 etc, until broken keyboard

remember kids, if you fall for bait, you look worse

Yeah these things have been getting pretty popular recently.

Edited on by cheetahman91

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GuardianKing

7. Posted:

Pachter can't recover from his stupid.

/thread

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Burning_Spear

8. Posted:

Hey, guys, I'm sorry. You're right: We don't need doom threads. I was looking to have another "good grief" laugh at Pachter, rather than troll anyone.

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moomoo

9. Posted:

Just an FYI, he had a follow-up comment.
"My comment about the Wii U being a "mistake" from which the company "may not recover" was intended to say that if Wii U sales don't materially improve, Nintendo is unlikely to be profitable. They have around ¥1 trillion (around $11 billion) in cash, so they aren't in danger of going out of business for decades. However, if they aren't profitable, they aren't doing a good job for shareholders.

To elaborate, if the Wii U is not generating profits, and if the 3DS is not generating profits, the only thing that will generate profits is software. Nintendo is ensured high sales of its proprietary software, but it makes the most money on its royalty business, collecting fees from third parties for the privilege of letting them put out games on Nintendo platforms. Publishing (software) revenues peaked at ¥675 billion in FY:09, and are on track to come in around ¥235 billion this year; my call is that if hardware sales don't materially improve above current combined levels, software sales are unlikely to materially grow. If software sales don't materially improve, losses or break even will become the norm. Nintendo will not "recover" to its formal highly profitable glory."

Makes sense to me. It's not a bold prediction, folks. The 3DS is barely making profits on its hardware, the Wii U isn't making profits on the hardware (both of which are far cries from the profitability of the Wii and DS) so Nintendo has to make money off of royalties, since just 1st party efforts alone don't make Nintendo most of its money. It doesn't look like there's that much of a chance of 3rd party games selling well in the West for both systems and the Wii U in Japan outside of Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest and a few other notable titles.

In other words, the Wii U will be more like the Gamecube than the Wii. Nothing that will kill them, but they won't be as high as they used to be.

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WaLzgi

10. Posted:

It might as well be "profitable", considering Reggie mentioned that one game makes up for it. Many consumers will typically buy a game with their new console (even with Nintendo Land)

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GuardianKing

11. Posted:

@moomoo Dude... Have you seen the 3DS?! Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's generating profit right now to say the least.

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Prof_Clayton

12. Posted:

His crystal ball must have broken~

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moomoo

13. Posted:

CaptainMorpheus wrote:

@moomoo Dude... Have you seen the 3DS?! Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's generating profit right now to say the least.

Not outside Japan. Not on the large scale that the DS did, which is what Pachter was referring to. It's barely generating a profit solely on the hardware, and the software numbers (once again, in the west) aren't doing extremely well when it comes to 3rd parties.

Edited on by moomoo

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Prof_Clayton

14. Posted:

@Moomoo Did the DS generate a lot of profit in the beginning?
Keep in mind with software the good games still have yet to come. :3

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TysonOfTime

15. Posted:

I know we focus on Patcher's Nintendo predictions because we're on SonyLife, but can someone tell me whether or not he has predictions for the PSVita? I'd like to imagine his thoughts on it's future compare to that of his in regards the to the 3DS.

Edited on by TysonOfTime

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kkslider5552000

16. Posted:

moomoo wrote:

CaptainMorpheus wrote:

@moomoo Dude... Have you seen the 3DS?! Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's generating profit right now to say the least.

Not outside Japan. Not on the large scale that the DS did, which is what Pachter was referring to. It's barely generating a profit solely on the hardware, and the software numbers (once again, in the west) aren't doing extremely well when it comes to 3rd parties.

which is why Nintendo is going to apparently publish some 3rd party games. Now I am personally hopeful that works since half of 3DS' interesting software is 3rd party japanese titles with no current release date outside of Japan.

Edited on by kkslider5552000

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rayword45

17. Posted:

Yeah, that follow-up made a lot more sense. I can see where he's coming from, but did anyone expect a Wii/DS scale sales explosion?

Also, seriously, why the f**k do you always word your arguments so awfully Pachter? There's a fine line between caution/warning and bashing.

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moomoo

18. Posted:

Prof_Clayton wrote:

@Moomoo Did the DS generate a lot of profit in the beginning?
Keep in mind with software the good games still have yet to come. :3

There's a difference between sales numbers and profit.
The DS made Nintendo way more money in regards to how much selling a unit proffited Nintendo compared to the 3DS. So even though the 3DS is doing better than the DS at this point in this lifecycle, it just doesn't make sense that it'd be as profitable for Nintendo at all. And that's if it hits the same high as the old DS. Which I doubt will happen (but hope otherwise).
And yes, there's lots of software for 3DS on the way. There was plenty of great stuff on DS too. But DS games, in general, were much more fruitful for 3rd parties, evidenced by the sheer amount of software put out by 3rd parties on the DS.

@rayword45 Yeah, he needs to work on his wording. Without that follow-up I would have been wondering what the heck he meant.

Edited on by moomoo

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kkslider5552000

19. Posted:

Because making a profit is more difficult nowadays for gaming for many reasons and iOS has taken part of the market.

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Retro_on_theGo

20. Posted:

If Nintendo can recover from the GameCube I think they can recover from anything.

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