We've heard all kinds of predictions about the Switch 2 and its potential launch sales in recent months, from the optimistic to the 'Nintendo's so doomed' pessimistic. The latest take, however, doesn't just suggest that the hardware's opening numbers will be good, it reckons they'll be record-breaking.
Earlier this week, Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa announced that the company won't be able to meet the Switch 2 demand in the region via the My Nintendo Store alone, after a whopping 2.2 million hopefuls applied for the store's lottery service.
It's a big number for the region, and one analyst has taken it to mean even bigger things for the console's global sales. As reported by The Japan Times, Pelham Smithers of the Japan-focused equity research firm Pelham Smithers Associates, implied that Switch 2 could be capable of pulling in the largest console launch ever, noting, "As Japan accounts for a third of global Switch installation base, it implies 6.6 million pre-orders globally".
For reference, the biggest console launch at the time of writing is split between the PlayStation 4 and 5, both of which reportedly pulled in 4.5 million sales after just two months on the market. If over six million people have got a Switch 2 pre-ordered already — and all of them go through with the purchase — it would clear the current champions by a comfortable distance.
Now, as with most analytical statements, there is a fair amount of mental gymnastics going on here. Just because Japan accounted for a third of Switch 1's install base, that doesn't necessarily mean it's the same with the follow-up. Even then, there's no guarantee that those registering for the pre-order lottery would actually follow through with their purchase. And what about changing economic conditions, hardware pricing and staggered pre-order windows by region? In short, an analyst can only predict based on the information they have, so it's always worth taking things with a pinch of salt.
All that said, 2.2 million registrations in Japan is a huge number, and based on the lengthy pre-order wait times we've seen from our friends in North America this week, it's clear that the appetite is there around the world. Let's just wait and see whether Nintendo has the units to satisfy the initial demand.