Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

Galaxy sold 12 million. I could see Odyssey selling that too. You have to remember, the Wii was a very different system. Everyone had one, even people who aren't gamers. Old people, people who just got Wii Sports, people who bought more then one. There's a lot of reasons the Wii sold 100 million, and it definitely wasn't Mario Galaxy. (Not to say it's not a good game, it is) I can't see the Switch passing 100 million IMO @SLIGEACH_EIRE

@Aaron09 Galaxy didn't sell 12 million. It sold just under 11 and a half million. That was over its lifetime. Pachter's talking like SMO will sell 12 million in this financial year alone.

What's more important is the attach rate. Odyssey will likely have a higher attach rate on the Switch than Galaxy had on the Wii. 12 million this year alone is bogus.

And if Nintendo is going to have any problems this holiday season, it's going to be stock issues. Even if the Xbox One gets a temporary price cut, I think Nintendo will easily sell through all its stock. They can't even keep up with the current demand, let alone the holiday demand. And I don't foresee that changing anytime soon.

@Octane Yeah, this holiday is going to be paradise for scalpers both in the form of Switch and SNES Mini.

I expect Switch to be at 10 million by the end of March 2018. Could do more, but stock will hold it back to 10m. And I'm going to say at least 1 out of every 2 Switch owners will buy Mario Odyssey, possibly more. So 5m is pretty much guaranteed. Maybe it could do 6m-7m.

It may hit 12 in it's lifetime though.

@Tsurii Mario is going to have an obscene attach rate! It's a fair assumption that Switches going in to 2018 will be bundled with the game soo...it's not delusional. Granted it's quite an ambitious target, but not impossible if they can sort out the Switch parts problem.

You just have to look at the total sales of all the big games so far in such a short amount of time to see its very possible Odyssey could achieve these numbers.

At the end of June BOTW had sold 3.92m,MK8D 3.54m and ARMS after only 2 weeks on sale had shifted 1.18m . 4 weeks later those numbers will be even higher. By this time next month Splatoon 2 will likely be pushing 2.5m if not more. By the end of the financial year Odyssey will have been out for around 6 months so if there are 12 million Switch's out in the wild you can bet it will be close to 10m. As will BOTW and MK8D .

@OorWullie Well, the issue is that those numbers come from Nintendo directly, and while software is abundant, hardware isn't. So the attach rate seem higher than they are.

If they manage to sell 12 million Switches to customers by the end of the fiscal year, I highly doubt Odyssey is able to sell 10 million. 6-8 at most probably. The reason why Zelda's attach rate was so high was because there was (almost) no other reason to buy a Switch. Who was going to buy a Switch day one and not get Zelda? Very few. That situation will be different this holiday season, not everyone will be picking up a Switch for Mario. And not every current Switch owner will buy Mario.

So we're talking 10 mill sales for a game after ~35 weeks right? Yeah that is a bit crazy. Here are a few recent-ish non-bundled games that managed to hit that target.... not the full list....

18mill - GTA5 (PS3)
15mill - New SMB Wii
14mill - Wii Sports Resort
14mill - Pokemon Sun/Moon
14mill - GTA5 (360)
11mill - Mario Kart Wii
11mill - Pokemon X/Y

Is it possible? Sure. Technically it's possible for the game to hit 10mill units in that short a period of time. I don't think the attach rate would be that outlandish either given the sort of audience the Switch is attracting and how well it's doing. But it is still a pretty bold prediction.

Odyssey will undoubtedly be a success, but there's no way it's selling 12 million by the end of the year, lol.

There's no chance (none whatsoever) that Mario will sell 10 million copies this year. Over the lifetime of the Switch? Maybe - but certainly not this year.

I think we all forget that 3D platformers are complex enough to put off a significant percentage of console owners and sufficiently sugar coated to put off another significant percentage. Plus some Switch owners that do want it won't have the budget for it! Mario will sell well but anything more than a 50% attach rate is unrealistic.

In fact we maybe forget how exceptional it is for any game to have an attach rate of more than 50% (at least by the time the console has sold upwards of 10 million units). Very few games in the history of the industry have actually managed an attach rate higher than 25%!

Oh, I thought it was 12. My bad. I can't see it selling 12 million in this year alone, but can see it Hitting that number by the end Switch's lifetime. @SLIGEACH_EIRE

We also said Xenoblade 2 landing this year and 2 Metroid games being announced was unrealistic. And ARMS doing what it did, or MK8D? The Switch is full of illogical sales.

@BLP_Software It's kind of hilarious that even ARMS is going to outsell SFV.

Just for comparison, Breath of the Wild has so far sold 4.13 million copies worldwide on Switch and WiiU combined (3.07 million on Switch) ..it'd be a tall order for Mario Odyssey to reach 12 million any time soon - especially as limited supply means that 'only' 4.26 million Switch's have been sold globally so far - people won't buy games for a console that they don't/can't own!

@Grumblevolcano In significantly less time.

It's weird, because the biggest complaint of SFV was that it lacked a proper story mode, and that it only came with 16 characters at launch...

@Octane I think one of the big aspects of that is ARMS is a new IP.

Street Fighter V...is Street Fighter FIVE. Look at 4. Look what came as standard. Then look at 5. Quite frankly that'd be like any multiplayer focused game launching with significantly less content than its base predecessor.

My biggest take away from this though, is the SF brand clearly isn't as strong as it may have once been (Before my time so I don't know). But only hitting 1.7m across both PS4 and PC where it was pushed heavily? Maybe it came too soon after Ultra 4?

@DarthNocturnal I don't think so... You could buy skins. But any DLC character could also be unlocked with in-game money which you can earn by leveling up characters and winning matches.

@Grumblevolcano MvCI will probably sell worse than that too