Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

So we're talking 10 mill sales for a game after ~35 weeks right? Yeah that is a bit crazy. Here are a few recent-ish non-bundled games that managed to hit that target.... not the full list....

18mill - GTA5 (PS3)
15mill - New SMB Wii
14mill - Wii Sports Resort
14mill - Pokemon Sun/Moon
14mill - GTA5 (360)
11mill - Mario Kart Wii
11mill - Pokemon X/Y

Is it possible? Sure. Technically it's possible for the game to hit 10mill units in that short a period of time. I don't think the attach rate would be that outlandish either given the sort of audience the Switch is attracting and how well it's doing. But it is still a pretty bold prediction.

Odyssey will undoubtedly be a success, but there's no way it's selling 12 million by the end of the year, lol.

There's no chance (none whatsoever) that Mario will sell 10 million copies this year. Over the lifetime of the Switch? Maybe - but certainly not this year.

I think we all forget that 3D platformers are complex enough to put off a significant percentage of console owners and sufficiently sugar coated to put off another significant percentage. Plus some Switch owners that do want it won't have the budget for it! Mario will sell well but anything more than a 50% attach rate is unrealistic.

In fact we maybe forget how exceptional it is for any game to have an attach rate of more than 50% (at least by the time the console has sold upwards of 10 million units). Very few games in the history of the industry have actually managed an attach rate higher than 25%!

Oh, I thought it was 12. My bad. I can't see it selling 12 million in this year alone, but can see it Hitting that number by the end Switch's lifetime. @SLIGEACH_EIRE

We also said Xenoblade 2 landing this year and 2 Metroid games being announced was unrealistic. And ARMS doing what it did, or MK8D? The Switch is full of illogical sales.

@BLP_Software It's kind of hilarious that even ARMS is going to outsell SFV.

Just for comparison, Breath of the Wild has so far sold 4.13 million copies worldwide on Switch and WiiU combined (3.07 million on Switch) ..it'd be a tall order for Mario Odyssey to reach 12 million any time soon - especially as limited supply means that 'only' 4.26 million Switch's have been sold globally so far - people won't buy games for a console that they don't/can't own!

@Grumblevolcano In significantly less time.

It's weird, because the biggest complaint of SFV was that it lacked a proper story mode, and that it only came with 16 characters at launch...

@Octane I think one of the big aspects of that is ARMS is a new IP.

Street Fighter V...is Street Fighter FIVE. Look at 4. Look what came as standard. Then look at 5. Quite frankly that'd be like any multiplayer focused game launching with significantly less content than its base predecessor.

My biggest take away from this though, is the SF brand clearly isn't as strong as it may have once been (Before my time so I don't know). But only hitting 1.7m across both PS4 and PC where it was pushed heavily? Maybe it came too soon after Ultra 4?

@DarthNocturnal I don't think so... You could buy skins. But any DLC character could also be unlocked with in-game money which you can earn by leveling up characters and winning matches.

@Grumblevolcano MvCI will probably sell worse than that too

@IceClimbers What about Ultimate MvCI?

But seriously aside from the lackluster roster and hokey plot...it doesnt look good...

@BLP_Software Agreed. Whatever hype there was for the game vanished with the Dragon Ball FighterZ announcement

Funny thing about Street Fighter V is that it has a huge competitive scene but comparitively lackluster sales. Of course, appealing only to the hardcore crowd is a problem many fighters have. ARMS, meanwhile, is a much less intimidating game to get into.

German retailer lists Street Fighter Anniversary Collection for PS4, Xbox One
_{New collection in celebration of 30th anniversary seemingly incoming.}

http://gematsu.com/2017/07/german-retailer-lists-street-fight...

So much for Capcom's supposed Switch support if this is true.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE We've seen how they plan to support Switch. Any collection thatd be great here for a decent price? Nope. One game higher price.

Sad part? If we didnt buy USF2 they would walk away.

If we did, we at least had a slight if infinitely small possibility that we would get stuff other than classics for £35.

Whats more baffling is a point made by USGamer.

Monster Hunter World is for home consoles. One of which is only just at 5m in Japan. They want Monster Hunter to do better globally. So they just spent more money than they would on 3DS or Switch to make a console game that sold better in the West on handhelds, and will have a significantly smaller Japanese potential install base where the series does best anyway.

The game has an inherently limited reach in Japan, and its going away from the handhelds that made it prominent in the West in the first place. To boot, the costs will be higher so they will need to sell more.

And after how RE7 and SFV limped along? What part of Capcom is making smart decisions right now?

@SLIGEACH_EIRE This would've been planned before they greenlit further Switch support.

It is worth pointing out a couple of differences between BotW now and SMO in this prediction.

For one thing the install base will be significantly different. Pachter made this prediction alongside a prediction that the Switch will easily meet it's target of 10mill units this fiscal year. In other words he's predicting sales for the game based on an assumption that the install base by mid-next year will be at least 15mill. If you think that's insane? Well remember that the Switch is already selling at this rate with supply constraints. IMO this part of his prediction is super conservative and he knows it

The second difference is that the period of sales we're talking about includes Christmas. Walking into your Christmas shopping if you're buying a Switch for someone Super Mario Odyssey is going to be more recent in your mind than BotW. Especially if the person you're buying it for played BotW on Wii U. I don't think it's at all crazy to think that Super Mario Odyssey will be the best selling Switch game during that period. People are going to be buying Mario with their Switch, people with a Switch are also going to be buying it.

The last thing I'd point out is that the numbers for BotW on VGChartz are for 15 weeks on shelves. Pachter's prediction for 12mill sales for Super Mario Odyssey were over a 35 week period. And in any case it's not like game sales are linear, most games sell the best in the first week or so. Take a look at Super Mario 3D Land for example which has had lifetime sales of 11mill:

Sure Pacther's prediction is a bit insane but it's not quite as crazy as people are making it out to be. I think it's probably going to do closer to 7mill during that period. If it does move 12mill? You'd expect lifetime sales to be something around 20mill. Which is pretty high but still very much in the ballpark for what a flagship game on a well performing Nintendo platform sells.

False. People in fact have done this - with the intention that they'll already have their copy by the time they do get a Switch. IIRC, I believe it was reported that BotW sold far more copies than Switches at launch.