You still didn't answer my point about mobile gaming taking more and more of the install base each generation.
Yeah, all one of them. We are still currently in the only generation in which smartphones are eating handheld market share. There isn't near enough data to make out any sort of pattern. All we know is that there are a lot of people who would rather just play games for free or $0.99 on their phone than buy a dedicated handheld. We don't know if there will be more of them in 5 years.
I mean, even if you wanted to call last gen part of the rise of smartphones, the DS sold 150 million units, making it by far the most successful handheld ever, as well as Nintendo's most successful product, period. Not a great argument.
The iPhone released in 2007 and the app store in 2008. They took even longer to get up to speed.
Gameboy 118m lifetime, GBA 81m lifetime, DS 154m lifetime, 3DS 50m shipped at the end of last year.
It's clear smartphones aren't helping. You said it yourself, people would rather have crap free things than buy better ones. It's a clear competitor for the casual audience. The PS Vita should be a cautionary tale; 80 million PSPs to less than 10% of that install base on Vita. Generational bottlenecks need to be handled with caution to maintain much of that install base. Unless you're Wii U or PS Vita, then you really want to attract a new crowd.
It's clear smartphones aren't helping. You said it yourself, people would rather have crap free things than buy better ones. It's a clear competitor for the casual audience. The PS Vita should be a cautionary tale; 80 million PSPs to less than 10% of that install base on Vita. Generational bottlenecks need to be handled with caution to maintain much of that install base. Unless you're Wii U or PS Vita, then you really want to attract a new crowd.
Yes, mobile ate up a lot of market share. Once. We cannot tell whether or not this will be a continued downward trend for Nintendo handhelds in the future. Interpretable data is minimal right now. One of the few things we do know is that the launch of the N3DS was more successful than the 3DS XL in 2012, and at a higher price point. To me, that indicates that the dedicated handheld market share is somewhat stabilized now, but again, we can't know until at least a couple years into the life cycle of the 3DS successor.
And I would wager heavily that Vita's failure has even less to do with mobile. The Vita failed because it was a product marketed for an audience that doesn't care about handhelds. Nobody wants to play Assassin's Creed or Call of Duty or whatever on a handheld. If you exclude bundles, the best selling Vita game is Persona 4, and that should have told Sony everything they needed to know about how to market the Vita. It didn't. They launched the Vita 2000 bundled with Borderlands. Nobody cares.
So Anakin kneels before Monster Mash and pledges his loyalty to the graveyard smash.
It's clear smartphones aren't helping. You said it yourself, people would rather have crap free things than buy better ones. It's a clear competitor for the casual audience. The PS Vita should be a cautionary tale; 80 million PSPs to less than 10% of that install base on Vita. Generational bottlenecks need to be handled with caution to maintain much of that install base. Unless you're Wii U or PS Vita, then you really want to attract a new crowd.
Yes, mobile ate up a lot of market share. Once. We cannot tell whether or not this will be a continued downward trend for Nintendo handhelds in the future. Interpretable data is minimal right now. One of the few things we do know is that the launch of the N3DS was more successful than the 3DS XL in 2012, and at a higher price point. To me, that indicates that the dedicated handheld market share is somewhat stabilized now, but again, we can't know until at least a couple years into the life cycle of the 3DS successor.
And I would wager heavily that Vita's failure has even less to do with mobile. The Vita failed because it was a product marketed for an audience that doesn't care about handhelds. Nobody wants to play Assassin's Creed or Call of Duty or whatever on a handheld. If you exclude bundles, the best selling Vita game is Persona 4, and that should have told Sony everything they needed to know about how to market the Vita. It didn't. They launched the Vita 2000 bundled with Borderlands. Nobody cares.
Everyone got smartphones, then they got more smartphones. Everyone still has smartphones; more and more people every day. No one will care about 3DS U if it has another lame launch. Nintendo needs to learn that they need killer apps at launch, unlike the multimedia devices; phones, tablets, PCs, Playstations, etc.
From what I can see, the only ones assuming are the ones saying NX won't be around for years. Lots of people are saying it's possible NX could be the next console and could be arriving holiday 2016 based on the Wii U being a colossal flop. The Wii U is definitely not making money. Nintendo are only making the tiniest bit of profit right now due to exchange rates, without that, even boom periods like Q4 are a loss, and that's with the 3DS doing decent. It's not hard to see why people are speculating Nintendo will want to drop it sooner than originally planned. I don't see anyone saying the NX definitely IS a console and definitely IS coming 2016. The only people talking in absolutes are the ones saying it won't be around til 2017 at the earliest.
I bet Nintendo is kicking themselves that they didn't delay Skyward Sword and make it a dual Wii U launch title/Wii game with a 2012 release at this point. It probably would have helped the launch and made us less desperate for a new Zelda game at this point (this is a letdown when Zelda is you primary Nintendo franchise) since the Wii U would have a brand new LOZ on it. The price, not having a Zelda game on the 25th anniversary on a dying system, big whoop!
From what I can see, the only ones assuming are the ones saying NX won't be around for years. Lots of people are saying it's possible NX could be the next console and could be arriving holiday 2016 based on the Wii U being a colossal flop. The Wii U is definitely not making money. Nintendo are only making the tiniest bit of profit right now due to exchange rates, without that, even boom periods like Q4 are a loss, and that's with the 3DS doing decent. It's not hard to see why people are speculating Nintendo will want to drop it sooner than originally planned. I don't see anyone saying the NX definitely IS a console and definitely IS coming 2016. The only people talking in absolutes are the ones saying it won't be around til 2017 at the earliest.
There are people arguing that Zelda will be cross gen. Zelda is all but confirmed for a 2016 release. Ergo, to argue that Zelda will be cross gen is to argue that next gen starts in 2016.
Which was the point I made earlier. That argument requires you to heap speculation on top of speculation. When your argument must necessarily assume that the NX is a Wii U successor due out in 2016, then it is for all intents and purposes an uneducated guess. Which is fine. We all like to speculate. The weird part is spending 5 pages adamantly defending your own impotent guesses.
I was certain that Zelda would make its 2015 release window and I was quite wrong about that, so I'm definitely cautious to throw around words like "absolute" right now. But using historical data, I think it is most logical to argue for a 2017 release on NX, whatever it is.
Nintendo 64 was announced in 1993. It was unveiled in 1994 and fully playable in 1995. It was released in 1996.
Gamecube was announced in 1999 as Project Dolphin. It was unveiled in 2000. It was released in 2001.
Wii was announced in 2004 as Nintendo Revolution. It was unveiled in 2005 It was released in 2006.
Wii U was announced in April 2011 and unveiled at E3 that same year. It was released in 2012.
So the Wii U is the odd one out here, being announced and unveiled in the same year, but it was still released a year after being unveiled. Iwata said at that conference that we would learn more about the NX next year. If he is telling the truth and we don't see the NX until next year, then the historical data indicates it won't release until the year after that.
There are people arguing that Zelda will be cross gen. Zelda is all but confirmed for a 2016 release. Ergo, to argue that Zelda will be cross gen is to argue that next gen starts in 2016.
No hu-ho, no it is not necessarily 2016. Don't count your cuccos before they hatch! It's possible that Zelda U and/or the NX hit 2016, but saying anything other than 'not 2015' is total guesswork at the moment. Not knowing what the NX is means we really don't know Nintendo's release schemings.
There are people arguing that Zelda will be cross gen. Zelda is all but confirmed for a 2016 release. Ergo, to argue that Zelda will be cross gen is to argue that next gen starts in 2016.
No hu-ho, no it is not necessarily 2016. Don't count your cuccos before they hatch! It's possible that Zelda U and/or the NX hit 2016, but saying anything other than 'not 2015' is total guesswork at the moment. Not knowing what the NX is means we really don't know Nintendo's release schemings.
And stop with the backhanded ad hominems.
So... you're thinking 2017 for Zelda?
And calling your guesses silly isn't ad hominem. The way I'm doing it is pretty passive aggressive though. You've repeated the sentiment several times in this thread alone that Zelda U will be the first "good" or "real" or whatever Zelda since Twilight Princess, along with I told you sos and even casual "musings" of institutional racism. You can't tell me that sort of behavior isn't intentionally provocative. Given that this thread is like half other people quoting you and taking issue with your proclamations, I'd say the provocation was successful.
There are people arguing that Zelda will be cross gen. Zelda is all but confirmed for a 2016 release. Ergo, to argue that Zelda will be cross gen is to argue that next gen starts in 2016.
No hu-ho, no it is not necessarily 2016. Don't count your cuccos before they hatch! It's possible that Zelda U and/or the NX hit 2016, but saying anything other than 'not 2015' is total guesswork at the moment. Not knowing what the NX is means we really don't know Nintendo's release schemings.
And stop with the backhanded ad hominems.
So... you're thinking 2017 for Zelda?
And calling your guesses silly isn't ad hominem. The way I'm doing it is pretty passive aggressive though.
Lol that made me chuckle. I've never seen anyone admit to being passive aggressive on the internet before. My hat off to you, sir.
Honestly, and I really wish this wasn't the way I'm thinking currently, I believe this news points toward the Zelda game being a cross-platform with the NX. Trust me - I'm a day-one adopter of the Wii U, and I never wanted to see it go down like this, but I think Nintendo is starting to shift its development to the new system already.
From what I can see, the only ones assuming are the ones saying NX won't be around for years. Lots of people are saying it's possible NX could be the next console and could be arriving holiday 2016 based on the Wii U being a colossal flop [...]
Well you say that the only ones assuming anything are the people saying the NX is not 2016. Then you make a post that assumes it's not a portable. Look at it this way, Sony has been doing badly with the Vita in the same way that Nintendo is doing badly with the Wii U. They've been in that spot with the Vita since well before the PS4 launched. But nobody has been talking about how Sony need to desperately replace the Vita. Why? Well lots of reasons but mostly because portables aren't sexy and the 3DS controls the market.
When the PS4 hits its stride in the next couple of years Nintendo isn't going to have anyone's ear. I know Nintendo are known for crazy but I really don't see the reason for it. If they wait it out for a bit, catch them on the way down, they'll be able to get a lot more traction. With the 3DS? Yes, definitely, portables aren't as sexy. But portables are their cash cow, they dictate the market and the 3DS is well past it's peak. 2016? Definitely for the 3DS. For the Wii U? They could, but I'm sceptical of how well it would do. Unless it's another Blue Ocean miracle or a portable nobody will care about Nintendo hardware in 2016.
If I was betting on it I'd bet on the NX being a portable and Zelda U being a Wii U game. It's not click bait, it's not going to make some buzzfeed top ten list but it's probably what will happen.
The one thing I am pissed about is if the 2015 release date was just made up all along. I take people at their word and was willing to believe Nintendo when they announced that date. I'm not fond of being made to look an optimistic fool.
You're a bit naive if you don't think plans can change when people make "promises". It's very possible that the development was confident in a 2015 date, but maybe they hit a snag or two and now they want to be honest and upfront about the change.
Firstly, I already qualified that this is all assuming NX = Wii 3.
Even so, you don't know for sure the NX will have as many buttons. Nintendo has already shown gameplay using the GamePad screen, which the NX may not have, therefore the final version might have that taken out. It doesn't bother me, but surely you see the principal? Dual releases enforce changes across both versions.
Secondly, this the exact inverse of the Zelda U crossplatform hypothetical. Twilight Princess was better on gamecube, hands down. It was clearly designed for button controls and it looked the same on either platform, so I can't see how early gamecube adopters lost out. All of Nintendo's best games are on gamecube, really.
The controls weren't as good as they were intended to be.
Yes, Twilight Princess was better on GameCube - the GameCube was Nintendo's peak in terms of 3D gaming, no doubt about it - but it was still not as good as it was meant to be. The original game in progress had shield control via the R-trigger - this is an absolute fact - which was taken out across both versions because the Wii couldn't do it. With this is mind, it's quite likely the Mirror Shield was taken out - after all, it has not been in any new Zelda since they abandoned traditional controls.
Even so, you don't know for sure the NX will have as many buttons. Nintendo has already shown gameplay using the GamePad screen, which the NX may not have, therefore the final version might have that taken out. It doesn't bother me, but surely you see the principal? Dual releases enforce changes across both versions..
They could simply have map set to the select button, and I'm pretty sure it's already like that for Off-TV Play.
Since it's not gonna be at E3 this year, I can only assume it won't be released until holiday 2016, since they always have at least 1 E3 where they go all out with the Zelda info. So that's looking to be E3 2016. E3 2016 is also when we'll get the official unveiling of the NX. I don't think crossplatform release is out of the question, but unless they plan on releasing NX on holiday 2016, they'd have to delay Zelda to 2017 to coincide with the console release.
I agree with Skywake that releasing another console in the middle of PS4's absolute dominance in the generation wouldn't be the smartest idea. But then again, if Nintendo were to wait out the whole generation, they'd be waiting for a while.
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