Topic: Why is everyone talking about a “Switch 2?”

@Kingchin
I replied to you very directly and eviscerated your argument. So don't give me that crap

If you can outline clearly how the Switch is fundamentally different to the Wii or DS around 2009/10 or the PS2 around 2004/5 then I'm all ears. But I'm fairly confident it isn't really that different at all. As I said, total sales is going to mean nothing if people start to transition. People can and will move on. Nintendo wants to get out ahead of that

It's like the transition from NES to SNES in the US back in the day. Nintendo had something like 90% coverage of households in the US with kids under 14. And they also assumed that SEGA was not a threat because the Master System barely made a dent. So they delayed the US release of the SNES. Did SEGA capitalise on the delay? You better believe it

So don't go telling people they need to look at gaming history to see why Nintendo shouldn't release new hardware. I have. History tells me they can't wait too long. History tells me competition can appear out of seemingly nowhere. History tells me generational transitions aren't easy. And between the growing PC portable market and the rapidly growing gap in spec? There's certainly fertile ground for competition against the Switch building. You have to be very willfully ignorant not to see it

@GraniteFraggle
Not if a device like the Steam Deck comes down in price. When it does. For all we know in a couple of years Microsoft sees an angle and pushes a version of Windows designed specifically for portable consoles. XBox OS or something. Then maybe they get aggressive with pricing to try and push their subscriptions. Maybe Sony has a crack and on day 1 you have the entire PS4 and prior library available

Hell, maybe someone like Amazon or Google take a crack. Crazier things have happened. The point is the Steam Deck itself is a risk but it isn't the only risk. The bigger risk in terms of the Steam Deck is that x86 is getting cheap and power efficient. Which means games developed for XBox or PS can just shuffle right over. And I don't see that trend slowing

Nintendo needs to be thinking about what potentially comes out in 2025-2027 when they're making the decision whether or not to launch in 2024. They need to be thinking about what the sales trend for Switch will be not what it is. That's the thing the "no hardware" crowd here for some reason choose to not understand

@Atomic77 Well there is the thing about Prime 4, that game has no release window but is guaranteed to release on the current Switch. There's also the setup that TPC are extremely predictable because of their rigid 3 year generation cycle so Gen 5 remakes are practically confirmed for November 15th 2024.

@skywake Yes absolutely when the Deck becomes more akin to a switch price.

I'm really not enthused by the concept of MS or Sony going down the handheld route because I think they'll be tieing you in via subs - just like Nintendo do - for their GBA/N64 stuff - but obviously for everything. I can't seem them going along a download and keep route. Even worse - a remote gaming option like has happened with the Resi series on Switch.

While I appreciate the la k of physical with the Deck at least you own them and can play them without a connection or sub. It may be that's the route gaming is going, heck it may end up being Switch 2 s model ...who knows.

Of everything out there in the future it's really the Deck which has me interested but only in the future if its a lot cheaper. Its then really only for the likes of Elden Ring playable on a handheld or running F-Zero GX There's nothing really screaming at me that I can't play on my Switch.

Just want to apologise for the PS5 related posts earlier in the thread, I deleted them as they didn't explain well enough the points I wanted to make. The main point I wanted to show from them was that as long as Nintendo has a strong 1st party lineup and backwards compatibility when it comes to the next system, they'll be fine (Nintendo systems' software advantage will always be their own games). They don't need to worry at all about Steam Deck, other PC handhelds, PS5, etc. at all if they do that.

Well as long as the demand is there the current switch the Oled should keep going and going. I know there will probably be a switch successor sometime but I still believe that it won’t be out till at least 2026 sorry to break the hype bubble folks.

@Atomic77 You're not breaking any of our hype bubbles, we just think you're wrong. 😝 But in 9 months or so if there have been no announcements, you can feel free to laugh in all our faces.

It's honestly just educated guesses at this point with whatever limited information is available.

One comment since you specify 'OLED'. Since Switch came out, there has been one cheaper version (lite) and one upgrade (OLED) which are aimed at the 50% of Switch owners who play mostly portable. For the 50% of players who play mostly docked, OLED is effectively just a price increase and those players have gotten pretty much nothing.

@Atomic77
Do you really think demand won't slow by 2026? Demand is already slowing. Sales peaked in 2020, in their last shareholder meeting they made a big deal about higher revenues for the last year. But if you dig into it hardware sales are down and their revenue boost is from the Super Mario Movie and weaker Yen

Now to be very clear I'm not saying the Switch is a dead system here. I think part of the problem in this discussion is that people keep taking any suggestion of weakness for Switch as saying the hardware is selling poorly. It isn't. And I'm sure if they really wanted to they could drag it out to 2026. However, that's not the optimal path if their goal is continued growth. Which as a corporation it most certainly is

I'm not on a "hype train" here, I'm just being realistic. I don't see how Switch sales come back up without new hardware. I mean, you have to realise that OLED model serves the same purpose. As do the various bundles and special editions they're increasingly aggressive with. I don't think these are the moves of a company who plans to sit and do nothing until 2026

@FishyS Yeah I am fully expecting a few cross gen titles in 2024 and 2025. The Switch is far too popular to kill off cold turkey, this needs to be a gradual transition.

@Bolt_Strike I also think that console manufacturers have learned that the gradual transition works a lot better, especially when there's backward compatibility in play. There's always a handful of games that are just coming out for weaker hardware, and I can imagine they sell better when a newer machine can run them.

@ElRoberico
I've been so out of the loop, though. Have the Xbox Series consoles and PS5 been selling well in relation to previous generations?

I ask because, holy cow, the transition from PS4 to PS5 has been VERY gradual. Like, "pretty much everything also plays on PS4 except for Spiderman 2" gradual lol. I'm (somewhat) joking, but dang, the PS5 has been out for over three years and we're still seeing games that run on both.

I hope Nintendo doesn't go that gradual. I think it's healthy to just make the cut within that first year and have the old console start to turn into a collector's item. It's what makes the console stuff a little more exciting for me than the PC in terms of history and collectability, and I think it keeps the console market fresh.

@rallydefault PS5 is currently selling gangbusters, but Xbox has really slumped, I believe.

If the next Switch is anything it should have DLSS/RT/RTL as putting such hardware into a package like Switch format is next to impossible to do with current techs even when pushed. The fact a T239 with DLSS3.5?/RT/RTL can be had is a innovation that can only been seen to be appreciated here when it launches 2024(?).