@I-U
Oh I don't know, I wouldn't qualify that as a bad take. Nintendo is going to need first party games beyond BotW2 to shill a new Switch iteration to current Switch owners. I think it's a fair assumption that only Nintendo's core audience is concerned about potentially upgrading their experience. There are probably over 70+ million Switch owners who don't give a lick about the Switch Pro discussion.
Assuming the Switch Pro exists, a vast majority of the audience who would buy a Prime 4 would likely have already bought a Switch Pro for Breath of the Wild 2, assuming too that that will get a substantial bump on the Switch Pro if not being Pro exclusive. Metroid Prime 4 needs to be at its best for the current Switch owner base, unless a Switch successor is around the corner rather than a revision. Its best chance of being successful is taking a slice out of the current pie.
I get that people are getting impatient, it has been long since it was first announced (2017), but the restart of development wasn't even that long ago for such a large-scale project like this (2019).
I still believe Prime 4 was planned for a late 2019/early 2020 release following its E3 2017 "in development" announcement, which is why Nintendo made sure to be out in front of Prime 4 speculation in 2019 announcing the restart. I think it would have been fair to expect Prime 4 late this year based on that if not for the Covid-19 pandemic. It could be on track for that still, but I think it's more likely a 2022 game at the latest. 2022 would be a better year to market the game too with the 20 year anniversary for the original Metroid Prime.
I don't think that multiplayer is that crazy to speculate about, especially if Prime 4's development takes its release into next year or later. Metroid Prime Hunters, a DS game, had that and a single player ready to go in around 2 years.
"a DS game" is the entire key to why its different. It's abundantly clear that HD game development is a humongous task for so many developers, and in fact taking twice as long to make a game that has less content than a DS game is unfortunately somewhat believable.
My assumption is that if Prime 4 has substantial multiplayer, it will only be because another team made it.
If it's going to have a development time close to Breath of the Wild's, it shouldn't be wrong to expect it to have a substantial amount of content relative to a DS game made in half the time. Comparing development times of a game like Spirit Tracks to that of BoTW, there is no doubt the latter with much more time in development has more to experience. Breath of the Wild is for most worth its wait, and so should Prime 4. I shouldn't be thinking that a 2023 Metroid Prime game on much better technology is giving me half the content of a 2006 Metroid Prime game on inferior technology. It doesn't have to have both a multiplayer and single player, but if it is only a single player game that single player experience for Prime 4 should be substantial next to all prior Prime games with that much development time.
If Metroid Prime 4 doesn't become the highest selling Metroid game, which would mean around 3 million at minimum, it should be time for Nintendo to call it when it comes to developing new Metroid games.
That's going a bit far. It's still quite a niche franchise. It could sell only 2 million and still be considered vaguely successful.
If Metroid Prime 4 doesn't become the highest selling Metroid game, which would mean around 3 million at minimum, it should be time for Nintendo to call it when it comes to developing new Metroid games.
That's going a bit far. It's still quite a niche franchise. It could sell only 2 million and still be considered vaguely successful.
Can we agree that Prime 4 needs much better sales than Other M? I think that game had the most sales of the last 3 new Metroid games. There should be a substantial jump in sales with Prime 4 compared to the last 15 years of Metroid releases. If it is a game well received critically and has great fan feedback at and beyond release, Prime 4 should be able to reach those numbers if the audience is there.
"The secret to ultimate power lies in the Alimbic Cluster."
@I-U@Dezzy Metroid comes across as a very niche series for Nintendo, so weak sales'll be closer to inevitability than record double-digit numbers. As I said a few weeks back Nintendo should port Prime Trilogy to acquaint new players with the series. It'll bolster Prime 4's sales with minimal effort and will get more people invested in the series to secure its short term future. I doubt this is truly the case but I suspect Prime 4 is the Fire Emblem: Awakening, for Metroid. If it doesn't perform well it gives Nintendo and Retro less incentive to make them.
@I-U@Dezzy Metroid comes across as a very niche series for Nintendo, so weak sales'll be closer to inevitability than record double-digit numbers. As I said a few weeks back Nintendo should port Prime Trilogy to acquaint new players with the series. It'll bolster Prime 4's sales with minimal effort and will get more people invested in the series to secure its short term future. I doubt this is truly the case but I suspect Prime 4 is the Fire Emblem: Awakening, for Metroid. If it doesn't perform well it gives Nintendo and Retro less incentive to make them.
It would be nice if Prime Trilogy got a HD port to the Switch. There have been plenty of rumors about the release existing, but nothing has materialized from Nintendo. I would love to see that this year as Prime 4 would likely follow close behind, between 6-12 months after. Prime 4 does feel like it needs to be a relative big hit compared to previous Metroid games for the series to continue or return to being a regular part of Nintendo's success and not slip into longer gaps/hiatus between new releases. It does seem like they are very invested in Prime 4, willing to be transparent about its development in 2019 and willing to give it another go under Retro Studios, so if it does turn out to be a great game it really should be a sales success.
"The secret to ultimate power lies in the Alimbic Cluster."
Nintendo wants to release it close to a feasible release window of Metroid Prime 4.
That's an odd way to look at it, if they release it too close together then there's a risk of the two games eating other sales so it would probably need a year gap to prevent it that. Given that you can probably assume MP4 is at least a year away and probably more since Trilogy is no where in sight for release.
@I-U Yeah, definitely think if Prime Trilogy Switch happens it would be closer to Prime 4's release. As good as it was getting Bayonetta 1+2 so early on in the Switch's lifespan, I think Bayonetta 3's sales would be better if the Bayonetta 1+2 port released around 2020/2021 instead.
@Grumblevolcano I don't get me wrong I like Bayonetta however it's even less of a seller than Metroid is. I feel Bayonetta 3 sales are gonna disappoint folk expecting to be big regardless of port timing, Smash, marketing, it being on a kiddie console or any other excuses people will make.
@Slowdive About Zelda, it seemed to me it was the opposite. They had to upfront say it's not BOTW 2 before showing off Skayward Sword to avoid upsetting people.
@jump It's quite horrible that Nintendo, a notoriously secretive company, has had to warn people every single time they announce a new Smash fighter; that no other fighters would be revealed.
@Grumblevolcano I don't get me wrong I like Bayonetta however it's even less of a seller than Metroid is. I feel Bayonetta 3 sales are gonna disappoint folk expecting to be big regardless of port timing, Smash, marketing, it being on a kiddie console or any other excuses people will make.
I'm not convinced there will be a big difference between the 2. Metroid has never really sold that well either. Maybe it will have that moment that Zelda, Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem have had in recent years, where they just massively break out of the historical sales trends, and the skies are the limit, but I wouldn't put money on it.
@Dezzy Metroid Prime sold nearly 3 million. I don't think it's out of the question for Dread to reach those numbers again, but I don't see Bayo getting that high. Bayonetta miiight break 2 mil at an absolute, but Dread definitely has the potential to break 3. I suspect Dread's sales will end up around 2-3x that of Bayonetta 3, enough to break historical records while still not breaking the 4 mil mark.
My current predictions, which I shouldn't really be making because we've only seen one of these games, but never mind:
Metroid Dread- 3 million
Bayonetta 3 - 2.5 million
Metroid Prime 4 - 4 million
I do think they will all benefit from the Switch boost that a lot of other series have been getting. Zelda, 3D Mario, Animal Crossing, Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, Splatoon, all have their best selling entry on the Switch. So I think it's reasonable to assume the same will happen with Metroid and Bayonetta too!
@link3710@Dezzy I think you're really underestimating the Metroid games. I think Dredd will go over 5m, 3D World sold 5.6m copies in 2 months, Links Awakening has sold 5.5m in 18 months.
I think Prime 4 could go over 10m depending on a number of factors, such as if it has online play etc. Splatoon 2 has sold over 12m copies.
In general 2D Metroid sells better than 3D Metroid but I'd guess both get around 3-4 million. 2D Metroid has more competition this time with a whole genre a lot more prominent since Fusion (Metroidvania) meanwhile 3D Metroid has less competition (e.g. while Infinite may bring Halo back to the spotlight, the Halo franchise is not as big as it used to be around the time the previous Metroid Prime games released).
@Grumblevolcano I think it's hard to compare sales to previous devices. Metroid Fusion is the 23rd best selling GBA game (1.6m copies), the 23rd best selling Switch game is Mario Tennis Aces which has sold over 3m copies - almost double and the console is still going.
Animal Crossing New Horizons will outsell the rest of the franchise combined.
Links Awakening on the Gameboy sold 3.8m copies and was included in some hardware bundles, Links Awakening on the Switch has already sold 5.5m copies.
The NES didn't have a single game sell over 10m copies which wasn't part of a hardware bundle (Super Mario 1, 3 and Duck Hunt), whilst the Switch already has 11 games which are over 10m.
Another example would be Luigi's Mansion, it sold 3m copies on the Gamecube, Luigi's Mansion 3 is already at almost 10m copies on the Switch.
@MarioBrickLayer 5 mil is totally possible, yeah. But it's definitely nowhere near a safe bet.
...personally, I'll go out on a limb and say that Dread will sell 5.8 mil lifetime. But that's just my gut talking, the facts don't suggest that's the most likely outcome.
Prime 4 is likely to hit 4 mil, but I do think it'll sell less just due to being in 3D. 2D games just sell better.
Forums
Topic: Metroid Prime 4: Beyond
Posts 781 to 800 of 1,385
Please login or sign up to reply to this topic