Topic: Metroid Prime 4: The Long(er) Wait

I mean, it could be, but it feels like every new Metroid game is a reboot at this point because it takes so long for them to come out. Apart from Nintendo fans, I don't think many people even know what Metroid is, all they know is ''the guy in the robot suit from Smash Bros.''.

So about how much does Metroid Prime 4 need to sell to be considered a success? I'm looking at sales figures and nearly every major first party game seems to get 1 million automatically, but even 2 million seems to be a "failure" by Switch standards. Prime 4 is probably going to need to be the best selling Metroid game to really be successful, but by how much? This game absolutely needs to succeed or the franchise might die.

If Metroid Prime 4 is hyped up correctly and lives up to the previous games, I can't imagine it not being the best selling game in the franchise, unless some crazy thing happens. Even Pikmin 3 Deluxe will probably outsell any previous Metroid game, maybe even by the end of this year.

Though I don't think the franchise will die regardless. If it was going to, it probably would've already happened.

Given what the install base is now and what it will be when MP4 launches, it has to sell around 10m copies doesn't it?

Not sure it matters. We'll all be long dead by the time it's released.

@Bolt_Strike Given BotW needed 2 million to break even, I'd guess Prime 4 would need something more like 5-10 million given things like development hell and Retro starting from scratch.

Surely if Nintendo wants to grow the Metroid fanbase and introduce new players, like me, they should put Prime Trilogy on the Switch. If they don't and if it involves a story that's heavily linked to Prime Trilogy, they risk a lack of clarity and continuity for newcomers.

Metroid games have never sold that much. Prime 1 was the biggest seller at somewhere around 3 million.

Switch has an incredible attach rate though, so I think this will probably surpass Prime 1. Maybe 5 million for this. Not much more than that though. I don't think it was broad enough appeal to take off like Zelda and Animal Crossing have this gen.

@Grumblevolcano Whilst Bandai Namco and Retro were both working on Metroid Prime 4 it's just the same name and it's actually two different projects. Ninty would more likely written off Bandai Namco's costs (which wouldn't be a much as a full game anyway) rather than saddling those costs onto Retro's Metroid project.

The problem I see is it's released so late in the Switches life that people have moved on to the other consoles. I think 5 million is the bench mark but it won't have a long life because of releasing so late in the consoles life.

@Spoony_Tech if switch 2 is backwards compatible it shouldn’t matter. Especially if it’s enhanced on the newer model.

I imagine MP4 will sell about as well as Arms did, 2.5 to 3 million.

Fans respect the series as though it were an A-tier Nintendo franchise, but in truth it sells like B-tier.

@MarioBrickLayer

That's a bold, hopeful dream. But I look at Metroid: Samus Returns on 3DS. There were 70m 3DS handhelds out in the wild at the time of launch, and fewer than 500k copies of Samus Returns sold...

Given the years and years of discussion/hype, surely it should be aiming to make the Switch top 10...New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe is at 10 with 9.82m sales, Splatoon 2 is at 9 with 11.9m.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_S...

@MarioBrickLayer Only major hitters will be pushing for top ten spots now. Games sells are strongest in the first year but with Ninty's evergreen effect those same games will still be selling against MP4's limited sales life from releasing later into the Switch's life plus you have BOTW 2, two new Pokemon games and 3D World still to release/get offical sales numbers which should all be big numbers and probably out before MP4 so I'd be shocked if it gets into the top ten.

TBH discussing expected sales of a game which has next to nothing known about it is abit boring really.

@Grumblevolcano IDK if the restarted development would be a factor. If they're deciding whether or not to make MP5 (which is what I'm asking about when I mean "successful"), they have to figure that what happened with MP4's development won't happen again. It would certainly lose money if it couldn't cover the costs of restarted development, but they'd probably still make a new one.

I think given Prime's niche appeal 3-5 million might be realistic, but depending on when the game releases, I'm worried it won't even hit this much. If it sells something along the lines of 1-2 million I think we can kiss Metroid goodbye.

@Bolt_Strike In terms of how much I think it'll actually sell, around 1 million. If the restart didn't need to happen and Samus Returns was a Switch game instead of 3DS I think it would've gotten around 4-5 million because Samus Returns as well as Ridley + Dark Samus in Smash would've introduced more people to the franchise (also Prime Trilogy if the Game Awards 2018 rumour ended up being real). Right now Metroid is pretty much as dead as it was before 2017.

@Bolt_Strike

Word round the campfire is that Bandai Namco Singapore was working on Metroid Prime 4 as well as Ridge Racer 8 for Switch. Both projects folded for...reasons.

@Grumblevolcano I don't personally buy into the they are in Smash so there's gonna be mega sales now. Bayonetta sales haven't sky rocketed since she was added and Fire Emblem was on the brink of being cancelled til Awakening revived it despite the additional exposure of having 99% of the Smash roster being FE sword users.

MP4 is gonna sell how much it's gonna sell. Whatever happened during the development process hardly matters. What matters is how they reveal the game, when they reveal it, how they market it, and word of mouth. But it's a big Nintendo IP, so it will probably sell a couple of million regardless.

It will sell well as in millions of copies. The bigger question is will it be a classic? Will the wait to worth it? I’m not so sure as other seem to be. Not the biggest Retro studios fan.