@Keman
People who believe everything will be right eventually. But equally people who say everything is false and all leaks and rumours are nonsense will be proven wrong eventually. Both are poor approaches. The better approach is to actually look at these things and judge them each on their merits. But that requires at least considering and discussing them not just dismissing them wholesale
I for one am looking forward to this all being over so I don't have to waste energy failing to convince people such as yourself that some of these leaks are indeed credible. Because some certainly are. Probably most over the last year or so I would say. This one being one of them and, I would argue, the first credible leak about the announcement date
The only time we had anything on the announcement date was last year. When all we had was someone saying they were shuffling Directs around and bringing the museum direct forward. And the assumption was they were shuffling for something. And they did shuffle them..... it was just for Nintendo Music and Alarmo. This right now is not that. And I would note we had this same thing happen before the Switch trailer in 2016. That it was happening did leak, just barely before the event itself
No Nintendo won't reveal it during the next week either. They'll reveal it in the last minute. There're a reason why they announced "We'll reveal it during this finical year", that so they can reveal it in the last day then.
Even if the reveal isn’t this week or next week, there’s no way it would actually be at the end of the day March 31. At most I’d expect mid-February assuming there’s no January reveal or any news during the investors meeting.
Although if the reveal is gonna be this week and is actually gonna focus on hardware instead of condensing hardware and software in the same presentation, the Switch 2 announcement + software showcase will probably be held off until March or April. At that point it’s just gonna leave us with a late May or early June release for Switch 2.
You guys are so stuck in the past. You're never gonna be good at this predictions stuff if you're going to treat Nintendo like a monolith that always does things the same way.
Nintendo is (and has been) under new leadership for quite some time now. This console launch is VERY different from the original Switch launch, in so many ways. They are NOT going to show this thing the same way they showed us the Switch. This time around, they have A LOT more explainig to do on the hardware side to differentiate this thing from the original because... well... it basically is the original, just more powerful. They haven't faced this sort of sell since the GameBoy Color, essentially having the same piece of hardware just with more power under a slightly tweaked shell that a casual observer wouldn't even be able to notice. Getting a lot of hardware-only info first makes total sense. It leaves them a handful of weeks to then let excitement for the software news brew, keeping the hype going.
And as I stated before in back-and-forths with many of you, the Returns port doesn't matter. It doesn't matter, and it never mattered. Many months ago they knew they'd need a first-party port or two in early 2025 for the Switch to at least keep things going, so they got Returns ready and put it in January. It's a slapdash port with basically no upgrades, but it's a first-party SOMETHING to give us while we wait, which was their only goal with it. It's a title for them that will eventually sell 1-2 million, but it's not a title that is or was ever going to put up huge numbers on its launch day.
@rallydefault
Not sure why you're gloating. IIRC the long-winded discussion we had a few months back ended with me asserting that the leaked specs of Switch 2 implied that backwards compatibility of Switch games would be fairly solid. Followed by you attempting to argue that I couldn't know this because the only thing we knew was that NSO was going to continue. That it might not be a "Switch" at all. That Nintendo always does the unexpected so "Switch but more powerful" wasn't going to happen
Hell, you're still stuck on that point in the post you made just there. Talking about how difficult it's going to be to sell. Presumably because it doesn't align with your preconceptions about what Nintendo should be doing for new hardware releases. So I find it amusing that you're attempting to paint us as stuck in the past here. A bit of irony there. I'm glad you've come round to the idea that software will be what sells the platform though, which is something I've been shot down for suggesting on these pages for years
On the release date, I've been saying for a while that January seemed likely. Ever since they didn't announce in the October window last year and it became clear they weren't that concerned about manufacturing leaks. All I said before was that it would be odd to choose to announce in the same week they picked for the release of DKCR. When there were other options to pick from for both DKCR and the Switch 2 announcement. Not impossible, just less likely. And I didn't understand why you would be so bullish about it. I'm not sure what value there is in aligning them, it does nothing but bury DKRC. Again, not a significant release but... they didn't have to line them up....
But information changes, there's credible sources saying it's this week. It's probably this week. So it seems they've made them line up. I'm not sure why they've done that but there it is
Interesting going back and reading some of the posts earlier in this thread. Especially around the October window. Some reasonable takes there, past me had some good points even if they didn't pan out. I still think they've held out too long here. With that said.... I was probably just a little bit dramatic once it became clear that nothing was happening anytime soon.... I don't think we're heading for a H2 release, that was maybe a bit too pessimistic....
I am enjoying the Steam Deck FWIW, was certainly worth it. Even if all I seem to play on it Balatro and old indie games. Let's see if Nintendo can bring out some great first party content (because snagging the Master Chief Collection or Jedi Survivor will not win me over)
Edit: Oh, and while I'm thinking about it. Game sizes. On PC games are huge because they build for all of the resolutions. So games become massive. I think one key advantage of Switch 2 over Steam Deck will be that it's one spec, one fidelity target and not necessarily one that needs to scale for running on a 4090. 500GB of storage for PC games? You chew through that super quick. One of the bigger irritations of the Steam Deck. I don't think it'll be quite as bad on Switch 2
Time to make another wrong prediction. Release date:
Optimistic: 11th April
Early enough to capture Easter holiday sales in the west but also Golden Week in Japan. Realistically about as early as I can see it happening given they've held out this long. March died last year. Also selfishly it's before I have holidays booked so it would give me more options there
Realistic: 23rd May
It's in mass production and has been for a while. I don't think H2 is happening. Very long odds. Late May is kinda middle of the window here. It gves a fair bit of breathing room for post announcement marketing but not too long. There's no real strategic benefits to the timing it's just... a date... that works with what we know... and I don't want to make a June prediction....
@skywake I'm thinking June. April is very close when we shouldn't even know what the console looks like yet. Late May (like 23rd May as you said) certainly works as well. May 23rd is a Friday, and I think Switch 2 will probably be on Friday instead of the recent Thursday release dates for their games. Maybe Switch 1 games will release on Thursdays and Switch 2 games on Fridays?
Time to make another wrong prediction. Release date:
Optimistic: 11th April
Realistic: 23rd May
Watch as it is neither of these
I like the cut of your jib.
But if it is either of those days, I assume scalpers would nab the lion's share of them. Is Nintendo going to have ten to fifteen million consoles ready to go in a couple months to combat scalpers? Furukawa is on record for saying he'd like to flood retailers with units in order to give scalpers a hard time.
Time to make another wrong prediction. Release date:
Optimistic: 11th April
Realistic: 23rd May
Watch as it is neither of these
I like the cut of your jib.
But if it is either of those days, I assume scalpers would nab the lion's share of them. Is Nintendo going to have ten to fifteen million consoles ready to go in a couple months to combat scalpers? Furukawa is on record for saying he'd like to flood retailers with units in order to give scalpers a hard time.
I wonder if production is part of the reason why they are making an announcement this week. If they are about to start putting consoles in branded boxes (which will leak) they may want more info out there ASAP.
I'd love to know what the production timeline is for 0 to 10 million units.
I'd love to know what the production timeline is for 0 to 10 million units.
I don't pretend to know the logistics behind launching with that number of consoles. For comparison, Sony shipped 4.5 million PS5 consoles in the first quarter of its existence. Microsoft shipped 2.2 million Xbox Series consoles in the same time span. Both PS5 and XSX continued to be hard to find at retail for what...the next eighteen months? Granted it was the height of the pandemic and the number of people who were gaming was boosted.
My guess in terms of production is that they have all their parts in a row, ready for quick assembly, but even still… I’m also worried about scalpers.
I would think it would be miraculous if they had 4-5 million available for the launch month. Most console launches I’ve been able to find only had like 2-3 million initially available, and that’s outside of pandemic years with supply chain restraints.
I’m thinking they want to launch it before June. I really thought they wanted this to be March just like the original, but even if they show hardware this week, that is very little time, barely two months, which feels untenable to me.
Forums
Topic: Switch 2 Talk
Nintendo Switch 2 is finally here, check out our guide: Nintendo Switch 2 Guide: Ultimate Resource.
Posts 541 to 560 of 824
Please login or sign up to reply to this topic