Topic: Switch 2 Talk

@GrailUK I did predict September 2025 release back in June as a result of the strong general Direct but the whole weird situation regarding August/September (Indie World being paired with Partner Showcase in August, no general Direct in September) made me get convinced by the whole 1st half of 2025 release theories. Once October 10th passed with no Switch 2 reveal, I realized that my old September 2025 release prediction seemed a lot more likely.

It has been unbearable seeing Youtubers grift off the back of that Furukawa tweet early this year lol. Thankfully Nintendolife has avoided much of the noise. But when every thing Nintendo does gets crowbarred into Switch 2 videos, it's nauseating. Kills the hype for anything Nintendo do. I wouldn't expect a reveal in January, it's conventionally a come down month from the holidays. Of course it would be lovely if they did...but to expect one would be just expecting it in January because it didn't happen in December lmao.

@GrailUK I mean, December would be a lot more shocking than January. Despite everything, a lot of us still think they will follow the approximate map they did with Switch and for Switch all the technical details were in January — January 13 to be precise. Since during 2 financial briefings this year they have already told us a lot of the important bits — it will be another Switch device with back-compatibility, same accounts, etc., the technical specs and the official name are the only things really needed still. If they are aiming for a 2025 H1 release (which seems like they would if they are ready software-wise given their Switch sales and overall profits are on a significant downward trajectory), technical specs in January so that they can include Switch 2 games in the traditional February direct seems reasonable. They could also wait for February to do all that, it just makes a little sense to have it before the early February investors meeting. I know Kit and Krysta said Nintendo wouldn't bother releasing Switch 2 information to placate investors, but given they have already done exactly that twice this year, they clearly might again.

@FishyS January is returns month, when if there's disappointment with what you bought over the holiday season you can get a refund. Announcing Switch 2 in January is not that much different from announcing Switch 2 in November/December.

They could tease something at the February investor meeting, whether a Switch 2 reveal date/month or saying it's still on track and revealing a Switch 1 general Direct for February.

@Grumblevolcano
Well, I guess that's one way to extend the "holiday sales" mantra into January. Honestly I still don't think they're at all concerned about impacting sales of the Switch at this stage. Furukawa more-or-less said as much at the investor Q&A even if some have interpreted what he said to mean he's not worried about the impact given what they've announced so far rather than just generally

I think it's more just a case of the concept of the Switch 2 generally being not that complicated a sell. And with the media landscape as it is these days there's little need for extended campaigns before launch. It's not exactly the same thing but it's worth noting that the PS5 Pro, the last new console hardware to launch, was officially announced in September and launched two months later. And it's not like Nintendo hasn't been doing the same thing with games lately either. Echoes of Wisdom was 3 months between announcement and launch

It could well be that the only reason we didn't get an announcement this year is that it's launching in April or May and Nintendo just straight up doesn't see the need to have a 6-8 month long campaign. Nothing at all to do with concern about Switch sales, just purely a case of there not really being any need to drag it out that long

@skywake I'm looking at it that they'd give DKC Returns HD space before announcing Switch 2 which would leave you with the week beginning January 27th. At that point you have absolutely nothing to lose by avoiding the returns period and waiting until February.

@Grumblevolcano
I'm not really convinced that they'll bother to organise the announcement schedules for a new platform around a port of a 14 year old game and post holiday returns of an 8 year old console. They'll continue to support Switch through 2025 sure but the main concern will be Switch 2. If January works for a Switch 2 reveal, and it would align with the investor meeting in early Feb, they'll do it in January

@skywake They aren't timing a reveal around an investors meeting hahaha That's Youtuber thinking to get another vid out lol.

@skywake I don't think they'd purposely time the Switch 2 reveal in such a way that the game their theme park expansion is based on is sent out to die.

Youtuber fodder or not they did time both the October trailer and the January presentation around those events for Switch. Also this last one on November 6th was preceded by a flurry of announcements in October. Nintendo Music, Xenoblade Chronicles X and the NSO playtest.

Just because the Nintendo youtuberverse is innane doesn't mean everything they say is nonsense. What those channels are actually doing is just posting re-caps of threads such as this. Quite literally. But forums such as this, as much people in forums such as this do talk ****, do have people in it who make good points.

Although for sure, fans do tend to amplify the positive which ends up becoming part of the youtuber parrot network narrative. I'll give you that

You can't be serious. It's calendar filler, this isn't a critical release. You're suggesting here that they'll clear out the entire month of January for a farmed out port. I mean if we're going that route then Xenoblade Chronicles X is March and DKCR is January so the release must be in February. Done. You've cracked it

I don't think they're going to tip-toe around the Switch like you're suggesting. And certainly not for DKCR

Ironically it was a recent YouTube video claiming Nintendo didn't care about having information about a new console for investors meetings 😛 Which I would argue was immediately disproven by the last investor meeting. So apparently thinking Nintendo won't plan around investors meetings is also YouTube thinking.

@FishyS
It's kinda amusing stepping back and looking at the game of telephone that goes on with these things. I would argue that currently there are only a handful of sources of "Switch 2 news" in the west. And most of it just ends up looking more like a snake that's eating it's tail than a clear source of news

I think the thing that makes Kit and Krysta kinda compelling is that they don't really participate in that cycle. They're not part of the Famiboards-Reddit-Youtuber recursive hivemind. That doesn't mean they're right but it does mean their conclusions don't necessarily align. Which I imagine is very, very attractive to contrarians

@skywake I feel the weeks that DKC Returns HD and XCX Definitive Edition removes for Switch 2 reveal possibilities are:

• Week beginning January 13th
• Week beginning January 20th
• Week beginning March 17th
• Week beginning March 24th

So looking at the other weeks:

• Week beginning December 30th (contains January 1st - 5th) - Seems very unlikely because of New Years
• Week beginning January 6th - I think that week is also still too early in the month for anything to happen, Thursday is January 9th and the only thing to happen that early was the Pokemon X/Y reveal in 2013 (8th)
• Week beginning January 27th - If you're waiting this long, you may as well avoid returns season and wait until February
• Weeks beginning February 3rd, 10th, 17th - Very much possible
• Week beginning February 24th - You could do it before Pokemon Day (February 27th)
• Weeks beginning March 3rd, 10th - Very much possible only if Legends Z-A has nothing to do with Switch 2
• Week beginning March 31st - Only March 31st would be possible (April 1st is the start of the next fiscal year). May be seen as an early April Fools joke but Nintendo has done a general Direct on April 1st before so I don't think that would deter them from doing it provided Legends Z-A has nothing to do with Switch 2

However I do feel that Nintendo's going to announce a game for February (Prime 4 is my guess) which would change some possibilities based on when the game releases.

@Grumblevolcano
I'll put it this way. I think you're right to say that those weeks are less likely but I think you're being too quick to rule them out. I would personally scale back the intensity of what you're saying to it being less likely to be the week of rather than not happening the week of and a week either side

Also if Prime 4 does land in February as you say there are two questions I have. Firstly when would they announce it given we're ruling out the possibility of announcements for the rest of the year and most of January. Secondly if it, or any other significant Switch related release, did land in say the week of February 10th are we not then just excluding another three weeks according to your theory here?

Again, there are only four months for this to happen in. It has to be one of them. I don't think we can be so quick to rule out all but one. I think you can make a fair case for any time between mid January through late March. If I was to take a guess on it I'd say somewhere in the last two weeks of January.... but for all we know they make us all look like idiots and announce it in December

edit: honestly the only time I'd confidently rule out would be late March. Given they've put a hard deadline of the end of March for an announcement if we get to mid-March and haven't heard anything then the game is up and we know when they're announcing it. If they did that the reveal would not be a surprise. So IMO late March is out, even without considering Xenoblade Chronicles X

@skywake November/December would be my guess for a release date trailer if Prime 4 was coming in February. I don't think it'll be the Game Awards but I could see them take advantage of the Most Anticipated Game nomination to announce close by.

As for the other point, if a game released February 13th my theory would mean removing the weeks of the 10th and 17th as possibilities for Switch 2 reveal. At that point I'd think that late February/early March was most likely.

@Grumblevolcano Prime 4 is 100% not happening in February. They're not giving it a mere 2 months of marketing beyond the teaser trailer.
A February game is certainly likely, but if we get anything Metroid Prime related, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Prime 2+3 (or they're staggered, and February has Prime 3 alongside a physical bundle of both games?). I feel like it's unlikely to be a shadowdropped announcement just because I think they would've had that take the slot Xenoblade X did if it's coming first. That would either suggest that there could be a February Direct with a shadowdrop to fill the month out, an announcement at The Game Awards...or, perhaps, another indie announcement in the vein of Cadence of Hyrule.

@PikaPhantom I agree (sadly!) in so far that I think XCX will be the next 'big thing' for Nintendo in terms of a high-profile release. I can't see MP4 dropping before XCX, nor do I think it would release within the same 4-6 weeks... so as to not cloud/diminish the profile of XCX.

I still think MP4 may be a cross-gen launch title, predominantly designed for Switch1 - but perhaps with some upscaling potential or FPS increase via Switch2.

So maybe S2 announcement late March, and hardware (inc MP4) to drop around June/July? Who knows hey!

@PikaPhantom
I know it's a bit of a meme at this point but I could also see Wind Waker HD happening at fairly short notice as a February game. Although I think what's more likely is a late January announcement/pressentation for Switch 2 followed by a deeper presentation in February on software. And in that February presentation I could see some shadow dropped NSO focused or other smaller releases

H1 I think will be dominated by the Switch 2 release I would think. Prime 4 could well be something they release in August or something as a cross-generation or Switch 2 enhanced Switch game

@PikaPhantom Bayonetta 3 was only 3 months between release date reveal and launch, Prime 4 being a few weeks shorter doesn't sound unrealistic to me.

Regarding XCX being used as the announcement prior to the investor meeting, I think it was to make it very clear that Switch 2 was releasing after March 2025. If they announced a February game or stayed silent instead of announcing XCX, people would think as March is empty that's when Switch 2 and 3D Mario launches.

Back in Trump’s first term, he was gonna increase tariffs on consoles by 25% which would have increased the prices of consoles. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft teamed together to prevent prices from increasing.

Will it be able to happen again this time around, which can end up determining the fate of the Switch 2 price in the US?