@Bolt_Strike Splatoon 3 I think will depend on what separates it from Splatoon 2 (hence why I said maybe), it if manages to stay fresh then I could see it be over 10 million. As for Switch Sports, the charts show Switch Sports still having strong momentum. I think the big thing will be about when Golf launches and the timeline for modes beyond that.
@Screen Those are a little more complicated to chart because the monetization is different. I don't think they're being tracked. And even if there were, there are no new ones this year.
Why the heck do people think Bayo 3, Mario + Rabbids, or (most egregiously) Metroid have any chance of showing up tomorrow? It's a third party showcase, yeesh.
The sheer number of tweets I'm seeing about the prime remaster getting announced tomorrow is starting to genuinely piss me off. People are literally working themselves up into a frenzy about something that's impossible, and will complain for the next couple of weeks when it doesn't happen.
@link3710 Bayonetta 3 and Mario + Rabbids fits into the same categories as Shin Megami Tensei V and Age of Calamity respectively which both appeared in a Partner Showcase. Metroid Prime however has no chance and people are setting themselves up for disappointment.
@link3710
Mario and Rabbids is developed and published by Ubisoft.
Bayonetta is still owned by Sega, and developed by Platinum. It's just funded by Nintendo as of the second game, so it's a possibility.
Also if you're genuinely getting pissed at Metroid Prime rumors...you probably shouldn't be on any social media platform or forum that has the presence of Nintendo fans.
We speculate, speculate, speculate, because it's fun and it's funny to see people get mad over not getting something Nintendo never promised.
@Bolt_Strike I'm not sure where you got those numbers from. Those 2017 software figures in particular are way too high given that Nintendo only sold 63 million copies of software in total (1st + 3rd party) during that particular fiscal year.
Here are software sales of 1st and 3rd party Switch games by fiscal year:
FY3/2022 numbers are incomplete since this particular graphic only goes up to September 2021.
We do know that FY3/2022 Switch software sales ended up at 235 million copies, so we can estimate that 110-120 million of that figure came from Nintendo 1st party games.
@link3710
Peoples get upset for hoping the bigger games rumour (botw2, metroid prime 4)
I personally take it easy as I have no interest with those bigger games and keep hunting the smaller games / unpopular games.
Well, I have no hurt feeling since I'm playing completely different games.
@westman98 Read my note again. I took it from a Wikipedia page listing all 1+ million dollar sellers (which they in turn took from the most recent earning reports for each game) and I listed the total sales to date based on the launch year. There are some inaccuracies, yes (for example I counted MK8D as 45.33 million in 2017, but it didn't sell all of those copies in 2017), but it gives you a pretty good idea of which of the bigger games sold when.
@Bolt_Strike
Seems like a pretty seriously flawed way to track 1st party software sales since many of the Switch's biggest sellers move copies thanks to strong legs rather than just big launch sales.
For example, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe sold ~9 million copies by the end of 3/2018, but is currently sitting at ~45 million copies sold as of 3/2022. That means the vast majority of its sales come from outside it's launch year.
@westman98 Maybe, but again I'm not sure they differences mean much in this situation. Most of the IPs. 8 million in one year is still pretty huge. On the other hand, we also had Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle that same year and they had a similar opportunity to build sales year after year, but they couldn't even crack 3 million. So that definitely implies that there isn't a lot of interest in those IPs period and their sequels releasing this year don't have a chance of surpassing them.
Something for NSO, if this happens prob most likely some third party title for N64. There's one in particular that would probably make people not complain about the Direct post-direct
What I expect to see:
Fall Guys tier ports i.e. poorly done versions of games that are a bit "meh" tier in the first place
Something that will make @Anti-Matter happy but will make the rest of this forum groan
Something I'd be hyped about if not for the fact that I have it on Steam already
Some JRPG or something that goes down well with some but is super meh-tier for me
Expectations set low and I can't be too disappointed
Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
An opinion is only respectable if it can be defended. Respect people, not opinions
@Bolt_Strike
For starters, Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle sold 8 million copies.
You are right that appeal for games like Xenoblade is more limited (but that also means 3 outselling 2 will be easier to achieve since 2 never had ridiculously strong legs that 3 needs to contend with).
As for your overall point, if we look at past history, previous same platform sequels on Nintendo hardware always struggled to outsell their predecessors because most Nintendo platforms see substantial if not outright massive declines in sales and player engagement once they reach their 5th/6th year on the market. This is clearly not the case with the Switch, which is why Nintendo is probably a lot more confident in releasing same platform sequels such as Xenoblade 3 and Splatoon 3.
First post here. I come bearing an interesting discovery.
It seems as though it is very likely that a property associated with Kenichiro Takaki will be announced during the direct, most likely either a Senran Kagura game or info about the "Project GAMM" game he's working on, though it could also be a port of Granblue Fantasy Versus or something else he's worked on.
I have a habit of checking up on his twitter every now and then, particularly right after these directs get announced on the off chance that he may tip something off by retweeting these announcements, since some devs have done that before. Prior times that I've checked he's never bothered retweeting these announcements. This time he did, however, and both the Japanese and English announcements to boot. So I've got feeling that at least one of the announcements will be a game associated with him.
IMO, ranking in order from most likely to least likely:
Port collection of previous Senran Kagura Games
7EVEN announced for Switch
Project GAMM
Port of some other game he's worked on
I rank Project GAMM as less likely because I just think it makes more sense to intend that to be a multiplat game, given that it's being developed an RPG in the vein of the older NES/SNES era gameplay-wise and thus isn't likely to be too taxing to develop across different systems. While I rank a Senran related announcement higher partly because there's still a few more months of the series' 10th anniversary, but mostly due to the simple fact that it's a Marvelous owned IP.
Most people haven't seemed to notice the fact creep up on them, but in recent years Marvelous has become one of Nintendo's most active third-party partners and have been pumping out a ridiculous number of titles lately. Multiple Story of Seasons games, multiple Rune Factory games, Sakuna, of Rice and Ruin, No More Heroes 3, Daemon X Machina and a sequel currently in development, that zombie harvesting game, etc. It makes sense given Tencent's investment in Marvelous and the fact that Tencent is the main distributor for Nintendo's consoles in China. Even if it isn't Senran Kagura related I'd still expect at least one Marvelous project to crop up in the direct.
Only head-scratcher is in the event 7EVEN has been picked back up then who is going to be directing and developing it, since Takaki is no longer with Marvelous. I have a sneaking suspicion that whatever contract Takaki had set up allows him some degree of veto power over how the IP is used in event of his separation, sort of like how we barely see any new Mega Man or Metal Gear games after the departures of Inafune/Kojima respectively. Though there a still a few developers I can think of that Takaki is on good terms with whom he would trust to handle the IP with care. Particularly one very popular developer who himself has at one point professed a fetish for "the chest".
Well, we'll see what happens in a little less than ten hours.
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