In my humble opinion as a lover of the Switch OLED I personally think the Switch 2 should have not been developed just yet. I think that Nintendo could have done more for the Switch than bringing out the 2 at this point. Of course I have nothing to base my opinion on since I never touched a switch 2.
So like the Wii U, the Switch 2 so far has arguably failed to convince people that it has any must-have hardware or software.
No, it's failed to convince you (and maybe a few others). You can't generalise to the broader market.
The Wii U comparison is also unfounded. The Switch 2 has basically outsold the Wii U in as little as 7 months. Third party support is blowing Wii U out of the water (just this week we got the acclaimed Final Fantasy VII Remake). It had nothing close to MK World or DK Bananza at launch.
@darkfenrir Leading the hardware market for this year doesn't really say much when it's a down year in general due to the cost of living crisis. Furthermore, the PS5 outsold it in November, and the Switch 2 being beaten by a 5 year old console that some say also does not have enough games and its developer has already announced a successor is coming does not inspire confidence that it's doing well.
@darkfenrir I'd have to do more research on that but from what I've seen video game sales tend to be front-loaded, they sell better early when they're the hot new thing (maybe peaking around Year 2 or 3 at best due to not having a sufficient lineup before then) and momentum gradually slows down over time. So no, you would not typically expect the PS5 to be outselling the Switch 2.
Also a fast start doesn't necessarily mean it'll outsell the other platforms in the long run. That's why momentum is important. If it sells 4 million this year but only 1 million next year, it'll lose ground on the other consoles and eventually lag behind them.
they sell better early when they're the hot new thing (maybe peaking around Year 2 or 3 at best due to not having a sufficient lineup before then) and momentum gradually slows down over time.
Historically the peak has been between 1 and 5 years for Nintendo consoles.
Going by fiscal year, Switch sales had:
2018 < 2019 < 2020 <2021 and then sales went down after that. So 4 years to peak. (Note: Switch barely had a 2017 fiscal year so I didn't include it)
Wii had 2007 < 2008 < 2009 and down after that.
GameCube was 2002 < 2003 and then down.
Nintendo 64 was 1997 < 1998 and then down.
3DS was 2012 < 2013 and then down except with a slight resurgence in 2017 instead of going down monotonically.
DS was 2005 < 2006 < 2007 < 2008 < 2009. It just kept going up for 5 years.
So there is some variance but the more popular (not shockingly...) tend to peak later in life. And most of them go up monotonically and then down monotonically but there are exceptions
Wii U is the biggest outlier because it was kind of close to the same number of sales 2013 to 2016. 2013 was the max so in some sense it peaked instantly, but 2016 was barely less.
@FishyS So I'm not entirely wrong really. The popular consoles are the only ones that defied that, the others peaked around Year 2 or 3. The question is then, is the Switch 2 going to be popular? Possibly, but if the game lineup issues continue into that range I could see sales decline as people decide around that time the Switch 2 isn't really getting much better and it just is what it is by that point.
@FishyS So I'm not entirely wrong really. The popular consoles are the only ones that defied that, the others peaked around Year 2 or 3. The question is then, is the Switch 2 going to be popular? Possibly, but if the game lineup issues continue into that range I could see sales decline as people decide around that time the Switch 2 isn't really getting much better and it just is what it is by that point.
Considering it started with such a big lead, it is basically guaranteed to pass the Nintendo lower performers such as N64. But, depending what prices do, it may get some economic-related slowdown like 3DS did.
That's independent of game releases of course, but hopefully we'll know more about games in February. Pokemon gen X will certainly spur a lot of sales but I'm sure Nintendo isn't relying solely on it. I suspect Nintendo is also pretty paranoid about how to keep momentum and has a plan which they at least think will work.
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Topic: Is The Switch 2 Worth It???
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