Topic: Coronavirus outbreak

@SkullDragr
😁 I appreciate the advice, really, but... there’s no way I’m filing bankruptcy (besides I only owe like $9k, not counting the $6k left on my car payment). I always pay my debts. I borrowed the money and as such, I owe it. And they will get their money back in return. Plus, bankruptcy is one of those things where you can’t file again for X amount of years, that’s something you really want to keep in your back pocket for when you actually need it. And I don’t need to file right now.

I used to have a credit score below 500 back when I was a hard-core addict and partying every night in my early twenties. I’ve spent the last 10 years building my credit record and I’m above 800 now. I’ve worked very hard for my credit score. Even if there’s a possibility I could get out of paying my CC, That’s not really an avenue I wish to pursue. Delaying with minimum payment also means paying interest.

@JaxonH Yeah, you know your own situation better than anyone. Just saying, if times are bad, really really bad, having money to buy food, pay rent/mortgage, car payment is far more important than paying down debts that can be written off. If it gets really really bad, if you have a credit card with a 10k credit limit, they may drop it to 2k simply because they don't want people running up debt knowing they will not pay it back. So the last thing you want to do is start using your cash savings to pay the less necessary things.

Sounds like you have it managed, though. I was pretty bad with it all when I was young as well. Credit too was around 500. I started small, took out some secured cards, used them instead of my debit card and immediately paid it off. Slowly but surely, I was into the 600s, 700s and last year was over 800 as well. Getting pre approved for a home loan and taking that subsequent loan dropped me down, but it's still solid, in the 760s.

@Heavyarms55 the global numbers are going to become irrelevant as it enters the third world for real. It's going to spread at such an extreme rate, and death percentage will be much higher, but that's due largely to the conditions and population density and doesn't apply much to the situation in the industrial world. 1.3b in India all confined to cramped shared quarters. The only reason the number there won't read 1.3b is a fraction will never actually be tested.

Similarly the numbers in general don't mean a ton right now in that, like I've said, they've already stated everyone will get it. At least regionally. So the "number" by the end should rightfully match the total population, but won't because most aren't getting a test.

Also with 2 week incubation remember the skyrocketing numbers in the us still mostly reflect infections that occurred BEFORE the lockdowns. That both means that this thing was WAAAY in the wild before anyone noticed anything. But it also means we're not seeing the effect of the lockdown in these numbers yet: numbers show what happened weeks prior.

Italy is showing a drop. That's big news.

@NEStalgia First you say how people have said the numbers don't really matter but then you point out a drop in Italy. What exactly do you mean is going on?

@Heavyarms55 the numbers don't matter in the sense that the global number is now unhinged from what is relevant in the countries most of us are located in -what it will show now is something different than what developed countries are dealing with. It's going to be much worse there. Even if a vaccine appeared tomorrow it would still look bad there, but that's not necessarily relevant for us. Their density, raw population count, sanitation, medical infrastructure etc make wider, faster spread inevitable. And a lot of their ability to handle such things at all comes from medical volunteers from wealthier countries helping out and bringing supplies, which isn't going to happen this time as they're beyond limits on their own countries already. It isn't too meaningful in our situation to track global numbers after this point beyond knowing that a lot of dense countries need to be fully quarantined for quite some time, probably until this thing can actually be halted.

The us numbers matter but don't. It looks extreme but it's also showing the infection rate from 2 weeks ago (nobody is testing without symptoms for the most part), before lockdowns. If the lockdowns have indeed already started "flattening the curve" at all, we aren't going to see that in the current numbers. I.e. the important numbers for us aren't how many new cases test positive with sy.ptoms today. It's how many new infections are occurring today. A data point we won't have for 2 more weeks or more based on how many symptomatic positive tests are found then. Today's numbers could be a bad sign, or just reflect a past that already changed due to the prevention measures. We can't know. So in that sense the numbers don't matter. They either mean doom or they mean nothing at all. 50/50. What they do mean though is that 2 weeks ago when everyone panicked that it was coming, it was already here in a big way. We were very late to respond. BUT we were faster than Italy.

Italy, one of the worst case countries showing (potentially) it is past peak and slowing is significant (if that blip holds as trend in coming days.) If that number keeps dropping, that means new infections started slowing weeks ago, which means the lockdowns are helping even in big epicenters.

The numbers for this always show the past, not the present.

@NEStalgia Another question then, how have the so-called under developed countries avoided mass infection so far? Or have they? Is it possible they are already experiencing mass infection, but due to lack of testing and a traditionally insanely biased media, no one is talking about them?

@Heavyarms55 Potentially less carriers travelling into the LDCs so a slower early stage, and a less developed domestic economy and infrastructure could mean there's less internal travel between cities, towns etc so would be more isolated in the first place, but yes, the lack of development will impact the communication, understanding and measurement of the virus, and if governments are less accountable too then effective action to counter the spread is likely to be slower too, if they bother at all.

@SkullDragr
Ya, keeping some cash on hand right now is definitely a prudent thing to do. If paying debts wipe out all cash savings I'd say it's a no go, but as long as theres still a bit of buffer left it's great to be (relatively) debt free in a deflationary period.

@Heavyarms55 Everything gcunit said is a big factor, but there may be more to it as well. There's certainly not as much international travel through those countries as there is through LAX, but there's still "enough" travel for various reasons, especially the larger/more major of said countries. I do think they really haven't avoided it as much as it looks as you both said - NY "avoided" it for a month or so that it probably actually didn't, but just wasn't looking or testing. Someone dies from not particularly notable conditions in Nowhereville in Sumwereistan (ha) and what are the odds the doctors would call up the WHO and ask for testing kits for that thing they read about in China? No, they just not unremarkable causes and move on.

There's also the continued possibility it has a harder time spreading in hotter/humid environments, and the lack of as rapid spread there is one factor in considering that. With that density it'll still spread, but it may be hampered a bit if that affects it. Maybe.

IF there was already unnoted mass spread in those places it could also explain it's worldwide spread going less noticed as well. But there's still something that bothers me about the pattern of spread. Air travel does explain it (I can not understand for the life of me why every single passenger plane has not been grounded for the past month...that's just basic sense!) to a degree. But generally there was nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing....then suddenly within a week the entire Western world lit up all at once.....but only the Western world. Except Canada (does Canada have that much less international travel than most of the rest of the West? Of course they do, so why not there with the others?). In sort of a weekly cascade between major points. Yeah, modern air travel makes every disease a mere 12 hours from you. But there wasn't a real pattern of spreading out from point to point the way it began. It was suddenly just everywhere more or less at once. That's very different from how it spread in Asia in the beginning. I would not be surprised at all if a bad actor(s) were intentionally spreading it around to unliked countries first. Wouldn't take much. Fly into China or Korea or Iran, then fly around the world for a week. Child's play for anyone wanting to do it intentionally. Maybe the interconnectedness of air travel just made it everywhere at once, but it just seems that there was no pattern of spread from a few infected places to a few more infected places in sequence....it was just - boom -everywhere.

OR it's been in the wild a lot longer than even western countries were noticing. I know octane was saying that doesn't seem likely since there weren't deaths from it - but we still don't even know how it gets to that level and how it doesn't....or for sure how long the incubation is. Some studies from china were showing the longest cases had 3-4 week incubation, but that wasn't the average.

@NEStalgia
I suspect it was from a syndicate who sneakily spread the virus in public from mass transportation.
The virus was reported from peoples after went overseas.

If anyone hasn't watched it, this video explains Covid-19 pretty decently.

@darkfenrir That was a fun overview. I especially love the TP roll floating in space, just to confirm it's legit and current.

Someone showed me this infuriating article. Does it count as doxing to say these people should be rounded up and made examples of? Or is that just volunteering to help with public safety? I present you: the face of the enemy.
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/travel-advisory-n...

More layoffs. Rumors of 20% pay cuts for few remaining. All 3 plants shut down. I'm one of like, 12 people left out of 500+

I think after this week it's a wrap. Planning a budget for being unemployed now.

@NEStalgia
Without laws in place, people will always do stuff like this. Should make it to where people get fined, heavily so that even if they dont fear the virus, they fear the ticket.

There's lots of info floating around about estimates about numbers and how many are or will get sick and how many may die. But I've not seen much about how long this is going to be. Have any of you seen anything to suggest it? When they say "200k may die in America" I'd like to know over how long? By June? By the end of the year? Some other estimation?

@JaxonH I'm so sorry man. Stay strong.

The worldometers site finally added a 'deaths per capita' measure. It was seriously bugging me how few of the media reports were controlling for population size up to now.

As you see, when you adjust for population size, some countries are doing a lot better than you thought. The US for example, is doing better than pretty much all of western europe:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That number was the NIH guy's estimate as to what the total death count will be over the entire thing, given the current way everyone is responding.
The margin of error is quite large though, so it's probably not a hugely meaningful figure.

Last man standing.

500 employees. Everyone is laid off starting next week... except for 2 people... and I'm one of them. Gotta push this PPAP through so the company can collect payment.

Then, after next week, I'm laid off too.

That's it. That's a wrap. Surprised I lasted as long as I did. WI still has a one week waiting period for unemployment, too. Doubt the state legislature will have changed it by the end of next week.

@JaxonH

I obviously don't know the various economic situations and constraints of every company out there, but I don't understand why more companies haven't tried to do what British Airways have just done, and said they're "temporarily suspending" but not firing most of their staff.