@NEStalgia Another question then, how have the so-called under developed countries avoided mass infection so far? Or have they? Is it possible they are already experiencing mass infection, but due to lack of testing and a traditionally insanely biased media, no one is talking about them?
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@Heavyarms55 Potentially less carriers travelling into the LDCs so a slower early stage, and a less developed domestic economy and infrastructure could mean there's less internal travel between cities, towns etc so would be more isolated in the first place, but yes, the lack of development will impact the communication, understanding and measurement of the virus, and if governments are less accountable too then effective action to counter the spread is likely to be slower too, if they bother at all.
@SkullDragr
Ya, keeping some cash on hand right now is definitely a prudent thing to do. If paying debts wipe out all cash savings I'd say it's a no go, but as long as theres still a bit of buffer left it's great to be (relatively) debt free in a deflationary period.
Psalms 22:16 (1,000 yrs before Christ)
They pierced My hands and feet
Isaiah 53:5 (700 yrs before Christ)
He was pierced for our transgressions
@Heavyarms55 Everything gcunit said is a big factor, but there may be more to it as well. There's certainly not as much international travel through those countries as there is through LAX, but there's still "enough" travel for various reasons, especially the larger/more major of said countries. I do think they really haven't avoided it as much as it looks as you both said - NY "avoided" it for a month or so that it probably actually didn't, but just wasn't looking or testing. Someone dies from not particularly notable conditions in Nowhereville in Sumwereistan (ha) and what are the odds the doctors would call up the WHO and ask for testing kits for that thing they read about in China? No, they just not unremarkable causes and move on.
There's also the continued possibility it has a harder time spreading in hotter/humid environments, and the lack of as rapid spread there is one factor in considering that. With that density it'll still spread, but it may be hampered a bit if that affects it. Maybe.
IF there was already unnoted mass spread in those places it could also explain it's worldwide spread going less noticed as well. But there's still something that bothers me about the pattern of spread. Air travel does explain it (I can not understand for the life of me why every single passenger plane has not been grounded for the past month...that's just basic sense!) to a degree. But generally there was nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing....then suddenly within a week the entire Western world lit up all at once.....but only the Western world. Except Canada (does Canada have that much less international travel than most of the rest of the West? Of course they do, so why not there with the others?). In sort of a weekly cascade between major points. Yeah, modern air travel makes every disease a mere 12 hours from you. But there wasn't a real pattern of spreading out from point to point the way it began. It was suddenly just everywhere more or less at once. That's very different from how it spread in Asia in the beginning. I would not be surprised at all if a bad actor(s) were intentionally spreading it around to unliked countries first. Wouldn't take much. Fly into China or Korea or Iran, then fly around the world for a week. Child's play for anyone wanting to do it intentionally. Maybe the interconnectedness of air travel just made it everywhere at once, but it just seems that there was no pattern of spread from a few infected places to a few more infected places in sequence....it was just - boom -everywhere.
OR it's been in the wild a lot longer than even western countries were noticing. I know octane was saying that doesn't seem likely since there weren't deaths from it - but we still don't even know how it gets to that level and how it doesn't....or for sure how long the incubation is. Some studies from china were showing the longest cases had 3-4 week incubation, but that wasn't the average.
@NEStalgia
I suspect it was from a syndicate who sneakily spread the virus in public from mass transportation.
The virus was reported from peoples after went overseas.
Someone showed me this infuriating article. Does it count as doxing to say these people should be rounded up and made examples of? Or is that just volunteering to help with public safety? I present you: the face of the enemy. https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/travel-advisory-n...
More layoffs. Rumors of 20% pay cuts for few remaining. All 3 plants shut down. I'm one of like, 12 people left out of 500+
I think after this week it's a wrap. Planning a budget for being unemployed now.
@NEStalgia
Without laws in place, people will always do stuff like this. Should make it to where people get fined, heavily so that even if they dont fear the virus, they fear the ticket.
Psalms 22:16 (1,000 yrs before Christ)
They pierced My hands and feet
Isaiah 53:5 (700 yrs before Christ)
He was pierced for our transgressions
There's lots of info floating around about estimates about numbers and how many are or will get sick and how many may die. But I've not seen much about how long this is going to be. Have any of you seen anything to suggest it? When they say "200k may die in America" I'd like to know over how long? By June? By the end of the year? Some other estimation?
@JaxonH I just can't comprehend the mentality that one would need the threat of an unaffordable fine to not head out into a plague with a ton of carriers. It can't even be blamed on basic greed and selfishness. They're boldly and defiantly acting against their own self interest. I also can't comprehend how they're even able to if they want to. Why is a single non-cargo plane even flying aside from charters for necessary travel? And in what reality did airlines decide flying 767s around for 4 obnoxious joyriders was economically feasible while their entire industry is vaporizing?
By the way, what industries do you guys supply? A lot of manufacturing hasn't been hit nearly that hard yet.
@Heavyarms55 The timelines are ugly. Very ugly. The few possibilities I've seen are this:
A: It turns out to be seasonal (the spread in Florida would seem to indicate that's not the case) if so we can SLIGHTLY have SOME semblance of life in Summer, then hunker down again in Fall. No events, no gatherings, but some retail could maybe reopen even with only limited numbers of shoppers. Carnivals, concerts etc are a no no matter what. 2020 doesn't exist. Business might function, but it would have to be with the exception that business that can work remotely should. That will get tricky in the US with most companies "strongly encouraging returning to the normal office routine, but technically permitting people not to as second class employees due to legal requirements. (a.k.a. if you don't care about your job you can still stay home.)" Restaurants could reopen but with massively reduced seating and table proximity. Most restaurants would close - they can't survive that without raising prices far beyond practicality. They could survive if they went ultra high end only. And actually found enough of that crowd that thinks it's "just the flu."
B: It turns out not to be seasonal and this situation continues going unchanged (it's seeming likely at this point.) No restaraunts, no offices, nothing.
C: No matter what, rolling periods of lockdowns full or partial seem likely until at least 2022. Large public gatherings and events don't really seem like a very likely possibility until 2022 at this point. Packed retail stores are more questionable. Schools reopening in Fall is questionable.
D: The virus mutates into a less dangerous pathogen, somewhat miraculously but is still realistic. Not likely but possible. Were that the case we all head into the world, get sick, get annoyed, and move on. That's the happy timeline that we all go back to normal within months.
E: The other somewhat miraculous option is they discover much more of the population is resistant or immune to it than they previously thought, and/or many more people build a resistance or immunity to it via minor infections than previously thought. Right now they don't have much to work with but we really don't know how many people were spreading it during the month(s) we didn't think the disease was here, other places, or even Wuhan for all we know, at all while we were NOT panicking about it. Some of us maybe already had it and didn't even know it. Given the huge number of asymptomatic cases, many more people have probably been exposed to it than we realize for far longer than we realize. What percentage of people may have been exposed to it, didn't get full fledged infections or did and were asymptomatic carriers, and already have antibodies for it? They don't know yet. If it turns out many people did/do over months, they may discover that opening the flood gates will not overload the health systems any more than they are and go ahead and do that. In that timeline it's probably several more months, the open the flood gates, a lot of people get sick, a large number gets very sick (as would have anyway) and a large number does not get sick. That timeline really is more or less "it's just the flu, but a bit worse."
Ultimately the world can't reopen until a critical mass of population is immune. that happens one of two ways:
F: A vaccine is created. 12-18 months minimum. That's not a likely target that's a minimum target. And that's not a target for reaching critical mass of distributing it to 8 billion people. It'll take years to do that. Just in the US it would probably take a year to get it to an 70% critical mass. And a good chunk of us would probably never get it/need it. They don't know how they'd distribute it. Probably healthcare & military first, then school requirements, travelers, maybe large companies. They couldn't just have compulsory vaccines for everyone, thus everyone wouldn't have it. There's also the other problem. A rushed vaccine to stop a pandemic and economic disaster is going to be rushed. Shortcuts will be taken. Acceptable risks will be designated. it could be a very real choice of risking getting a disease that has a 4% chance of killing you now versus a vaccine that could have a 30% chance of killing you later. There's other problems. They don't know how fast it mutates. A yearly vaccine for this like flu has logistical disasters, and most people definitely don't get that, it's for vulnerable populations/healthcare, etc. There's also the other problem that they don't talk about much: They don't know if a vaccine for a coronavirus is actually possible at all. They've never made one before, and they were never prioritized before. Typically they mutate so fast it's not practical, most coronavirii are minor nuissances only (the common cold), and the few that are severe tend to be rare and not that contagious (Ebola, SARS1). This one does not appear to mutate that fast, and so far they believe immunities might last several years, but that's still uncertain.
G: This one is the scenario if the vaccine doesn't occur, if they discover that many more people are resistant than previously believed, and also if we discover that the lockdowns don't actually work (this is a trial balloon - they might not have a reasonable impact at all.) "Herd immunity." Some spheres of politicians were ridiculed for intentionally aiming for this result which would solve the problem in about a month but with a high body count. But what's lesser talked about is that this is a very real possibility regardless of the lockdowns. If a vaccine can't happen, or the disease just spreads fast enough that this result happens before a vaccine anyway (which is pretty likely - the world can't idle forever otherwise we just trade one death for another) this solution is the only solution, or the natural solution that ignores all the misery of all this anyway. The disease gets out, 100% gets it, most survive, some don't. The world goes back to "normal" within a month, after the dead are buried. Politics aside, this possibility is very real. There's the economic factor - people ARE going to venture out to work even in risk, eventually, because they need to. We'd have to go full communism overnight to stop that. And even that was only "mostly" effective in China, and only if you believe them. There's the mental factor: Many people can NOT endure being cooped up forever and will "snap" at some point and just go out. There's the natural factor - even now people DO go out to shop food. How much is it spreading even through one centralized point of contact for everyone? Maybe just as much as before. We don't know. And there's the bright spot factor: What if much of the population is becoming immune through minor infection and thus it really is like a normal seasonal illness within a few months? And how will they know that?
And there's the unfortunate set of realities they try to downplay ("2 weeks!"!). Outside the miracle (or the rip off the bandaid, high body count) solutions, over months, restrictions could be lightened somewhat but not tremendously, but either way, rolling lockdowns will be a regular part of life moving forward and massive disruptions normal. We may have a lighter summer, but it's looking less likely given Florida (though that's a special case with direct contact with a lot of infected New Yorkers, and a very large at-risk population.) Normal life probably won't return before 2022 at the earliest, which means it won't really fully return because a full scale depression isn't going to resemble our old lives and will be a lot less happy a place. Or it will, but at the high cost that it goes into the full wild anyway for herd immunity which might be an unavoidable inevitability, which would be double the tragedy, as it would mean we destroyed the world and livlihoods for no reason at all - the same result occurred anyway as would have if we'd ignored it. And that "solution" still means that every few years it's a crisis again, at least or until it mutates into a benign form, which will inevitably happen at some point.
The timelines aren't pretty at all,but anything else is sugar coating to avoid mass panic. "Your old life is over, and nothing will bring it back." Instead they sell "just wait a little longer and see." Mostly they're just buying time to build medical supplies so that when a massive chunk of the population does get it they can keep them alive through it. Doomsday infection rate might be inevitable, all they're doing is trying to improve the death rate. But a huge number (if low percentage) of the population becoming critically ill, even if they survive with hospitalization (and tens of thousands of dollars of crushing medical bills they'll never pay so they can live as indentured servants afterward) is still a very bleak scenario. And is, arguably, the most likely one.) And there's still the myriad of spinoff crises, psychiatric crises, etc that loom that disrupt society into abnormal ways, further. In Hubei a lot of people became agorophobes. They refuse to leave home ever now. I can see me going there. But that's the tip of the iceberg. Combine that here with the pressures of the US, the coupled identity of jobs to life (and survival) and other problems and violence in general will soar, crime will return in a huge way, and varying levels of insanity, diagnosed and not diagnosed will be widespread.
So the disease pandemic is "rolling on and off, or just steady on nightmare" until 2022 at the earliest, OR it ends in a big bang with the disease spreading wild sooner (or if there's no vaccine by 2022.) But the lingering effects affecting a semblance of normal life will last quite a bit longer. Most of our lives, most likely. Every time anywhere gets a new outbreak (which will happen, the disease isn't going away, it's going to circulate forever, now, eventually mutating into benevolence), it will instill renewed fears and disruptions, though maybe more localized. And like the first depression generation it will impact everything the living generations do forever. It won't truly be gone until all of us alive now are gone.
The worldometers site finally added a 'deaths per capita' measure. It was seriously bugging me how few of the media reports were controlling for population size up to now.
As you see, when you adjust for population size, some countries are doing a lot better than you thought. The US for example, is doing better than pretty much all of western europe: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
There's lots of info floating around about estimates about numbers and how many are or will get sick and how many may die. But I've not seen much about how long this is going to be. Have any of you seen anything to suggest it? When they say "200k may die in America" I'd like to know over how long? By June? By the end of the year? Some other estimation?
That number was the NIH guy's estimate as to what the total death count will be over the entire thing, given the current way everyone is responding.
The margin of error is quite large though, so it's probably not a hugely meaningful figure.
500 employees. Everyone is laid off starting next week... except for 2 people... and I'm one of them. Gotta push this PPAP through so the company can collect payment.
Then, after next week, I'm laid off too.
That's it. That's a wrap. Surprised I lasted as long as I did. WI still has a one week waiting period for unemployment, too. Doubt the state legislature will have changed it by the end of next week.
I obviously don't know the various economic situations and constraints of every company out there, but I don't understand why more companies haven't tried to do what British Airways have just done, and said they're "temporarily suspending" but not firing most of their staff.
@JaxonH Dood, I’m gutted for you. Thank goodness you’re not destitute right now. I could be wrong, but I think that CARES Act allowed states to waive any waiting period for filing claims. I know Georgia has chosen to do so, and it didn’t require additional state legislation.
@Dezzy Some companies are able to do furloughs, but typically furloughs only last a year. Depending on the business and impact, some employers don’t foresee even being solvent that long. Depending on the state, furloughs also continue to maintain health coverage which is an added employer expense without additional revenue. And as bad as it sounds, this is also a time where some employers are examining exactly why they spend X on person Y of person Z benefits the agency more at a lower or equal cost.
#MudStrongs
Switch Friend Code: SW-7842-2075-5515 | My Nintendo: HobbitGamr
@HobbitGamer
Thanks. As long as we're called back by July 31st when extended benefits end, I'll see this as a video game vacation. But if it lasts longer, there could be trouble.
Unfortunately Wisconsin still hasn't waived it. The governor and state legislature want to but are still hashing out details and, certainly wont have a bill passed and signed by April 12.
Psalms 22:16 (1,000 yrs before Christ)
They pierced My hands and feet
Isaiah 53:5 (700 yrs before Christ)
He was pierced for our transgressions
I want heads on pikes for the imbeciles, worldwide that let this out of Asia to begin with. The airline industry should have been mined for scrap metal Jan 1. No slaps on the wrist. Everyone responsible for this overwhelming failure should be hung in the public squares when all is said and done. They chose to risk everyone to calamity to save their status quo in hopes it would all go away. Italy stoned their last dictator in public. He wasn't half as bad as the damage the modern leadership have done, everywhere.
@HobbitGamer Welcome to a world of permanent 40%+ unemployment. A lot of the jobs going away will never come back. And we only need so many paper pushers in an age of automation. More and more, especially if it goes on like this for a long time, I see a MASSIVE resurgence of Communism worldwide, maybe even in the US, out of public demand. The next half century is going to be one of the worst times in history to be alive.
Not to mention, there's only so long in this world discretionary money for entertainment will broadly exist. The future of Nintendo and gaming in general is probably very uncertain in general in the longer term.
@JaxonH Sorry to hear that, not that it's not going to be the norm for most of the population soon. Whatever it was you did there, and whatever they did there, that sounded like a dream job to you.
And wow, sounds like you've got enough anger over this for the both of us 😉
I do foresee hard times ahead, but I dont think it's going to be that extreme, at least, not from this crisis. Also, most of the world's schools of macroeconomic thought are divided between communism and capitalism, and communist countries like China are moving more and more toward capitalism while the western capitalist countries are moving more and more toward communism. Seems like most of the world's economic ideas are merging in the center with a socialism-capitalism hybrid of sorts. So for better or worse, that's where we're headed. And from a glass half full pov, merging in the middle is far less worrisome than a full swing, which is well beyond what I see as a realistic worst case scenario. I don't think 1st world countries are going to go full communism all of a sudden.
It could go full depression, the difference is, unlike in The Great Depression, we have legions of Keynesian economists in government now who believe in the notion of government stimulus and debt in a depression to compensate for reduced consumer spending. And, while there are severe long term consequences to such an extreme expansion of the money supply, and will inevitably result in the dollar being inflated away, that may not happen for some time, especially given the faith the world puts in the dollar as the world's reserve currency... in the short term, it will have a significant positive effect.
As soon as a vaccine is out, the economy will start recovering. So, plan for a rough 12-18 months, but at least with a safety net provided by the govt via expanded unemployment (let's just hope they extend it beyond July 31st if needed). If we can make it through the next year/year and a half, we'll be alright.
Psalms 22:16 (1,000 yrs before Christ)
They pierced My hands and feet
Isaiah 53:5 (700 yrs before Christ)
He was pierced for our transgressions
@Dezzy Yeah, that does seem like the more logical idea. But some companies do treat a lay off vaguely like that. I know General Motors and Ford Motor do(did?). They call back laid off employees before hiring new ones after whatever the lay off reason was is dealt with.
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