@LzWinky
I grew up in Dallas, TX and spent 5 years in Tuscaloosa, AL in the heart of Tornado Alley. Literally had a tornado hop over our house, split three giant oaks in the public park two blocks behind our house, bent the tree in our front yard to the point the top of the tree was touching the grass... I remember when the mall in Tuscaloosa was destroyed by a tornado, too. So I definitely know the dangers they pose firsthand.
But the truth is, statistically speaking most people are fine who live in the south. I wouldn’t worry too much. Plus storm cellars are pretty common down there (because basements aren’t that common).
@darkfenrir
Question is, is it safer because you’re wearing a mask, or safer because everyone else is? If it’s the latter, then you going out and wearing a mask when nobody else is might not provide much of a safety net. That said, I think you’re on the right track. Even if they don’t protect from infection, they can prevent transmission. Why states aren’t ordering people to wear masks in public, or even companies ordering workers to wear them when on the job, is beyond me.
That could be a very easy solution. I may have to buy some now.
^like the one in this chart is pretty good, and if you go double layer is better. Do remember that masks are also very desperately needed by hospitals too right now
@MortalKombat2007 I can't agree with that. The idea of governments as gatekeepers of reality, designed to shape the right reality they see fit is both terrifying, very much the problem in China that got us here to begin with, and helps lead to permanent distrust of all authority - of you know they always hide the truth and tell you what they want you to know, you simply go looking for the "real"truth elsewhere. And you'll find it. All 37 different versions of it. With public data there's no hiding, no manipulation, everyone knows what the reality is without looking for the Art Bell conspiracy version of it (i do miss Art though... ). BUT the problem remains documenting that data so it's clear what it does mean, doesn't mean, and how the numbers are to be used. This isn't a time to spend effort better hiding information, it's A time to spend effort better documenting information. Hiding information is how this thing ever left Hubei.
@Zeldafan79 stay at home orders aren't entirely house arrest. Food is still valid, medical is still valid, etc. I somewhat agree on food, but really, isn't takeout from a restaurant that has 4 people working in it safer than a supermarket with 50 employees and 300 shoppers? I can't get myself to do takeout, still, but at the same time logically i know that's probably the safer option when i really think it though... But the stigma.... Going food shopping is harrowing regardless. Every time i need food I feel like I've reset the two week timer to find out if this is the time it all falls down. I keep trying not to, but you can only go so long eating iffy maybe-expired good.... And when you go, you can't stockpile to not go back for 2 more weeks because everything is limit 2. It's like they WANT us interacting with people as much as possible.
I agree on all the traffic, I'd commented a week ago in another thread to someone about that. I expected to go out and find a Fallout wasteland, and instead i was greeted by gridlock. Traffic was a little lighter than usual, but was perfectly normal traffic for 5 or 8 years ago before they started heavily urbanizing the area. It was absurd. Still waiting for several traffic lights just to squeeze through. Total gridlock. Where are they all going? The restaurant half of the supermarket parking lot was empty, so it's not food. I'm the supermarket people weren't distancing at all. Shoulder to shoulder in cramped aisles as always.
@gcunit That was a wonderful metaphor. Jax may have taken it as a personal attack but you honestly negated the need for my much longer comment, because you really crystalized the statement graphically.
@jaxonh this isn't the place to go much more into that, conversation, so I won't do much, and i actually do agree with you regarding the environmentalism aspect, so we're on the same line of thought in some aspects, but it's leave only the idea that whole resources may be meant to consume, observation and reason are also meant to be used. We don't have those tools for no reason. Irresponsibly and willful ignorance of the effects of our actions on others aren't saintly virtues. Multiplying indefinitely forever without restraint until the host environment is consumed simply can't be humans role. It IS a virus' role. I certainly wouldn't tell you to not keep your faith, only to suggest that a deeper look into the real meanings of beliefs of your faith might not be a bad idea. A lot of religious values are misunderstood in common use only because people give only a cursory glance without a theological context to understand fully.
It is that very thinking that has brought us the uncontrollable spread of this disease. Yeah plagues existed before but that was my point. If we don't control our population, nature, God, alien overlords, whatever your belief, always, always does it for us this way. That's what we're seeing. The automatic pruning we failed to do. In a much much uglier manner.
We are depleting farm land at record pace. It's vanishing inch by inch. Every inch of land possible is being developed with more humans packing in, while relying more and more on centralized, globalized corporate farms held by handfuls of companies and based mostly on international exports. It's held together not by natural crops but by manufactured proprietary seeds designed not to reproduce (so they need to be purchased from the mfr annually). They've been hybridized to reduce nutrients and flavor in favor of maximizing maximize yield to be used in conjunction with set chemical treatments at specific times available from single sources. Some crops are sprayed with known toxic chemicals just before harvesting to maximize yield further. This guarantees maximum utilization of a minimum of agricultural real estate, total dependence on a handful of suppliers, and requires global supply to centralize production efficiency. In light of this, smaller and less concentrated farmlands have been deemed infective and unnecessary and successfully more valuable developed as residential and commercial real estate.
And the whole thing depends on no interruptions in supply -ever. To feed an ever growing population.
What does food look like with growing population post cov2? See you for cov3?
@NEStalgia
We won’t multiply indefinitely forever, though. That was part of my original statement. I believe we’re very close to the end, for a multitude of reasons I won’t get into. But to call all of human life a “virus” is, to me, a perversion. Individuals can make good choices and individuals can make bad choices, but that’s the extent of it. Even if the side effect of plague/disease is people dying, that doesn’t mean reducing population was the intent. It’s just a side effect. And that was happening back when the earths population was 1% of what it was now. So there’s no correlation to population here. It happened when there was 100 people on the earth, it happened when there’s 1 million people on the earth, it happened when there’s 1 billion people on the earth, and it’s happened when there’s 8 billion people, and it will continue to happen if we ever get to 80 billion.
The issue with farmland running out isn’t that there’s not enough land. The answer is to simply devote more land to farming. There’s plenty of land. That’s always been the answer and continues to be the answer. But as I said in my previous post, it’s regulations (such as those in California) that prevent that from happening or make it difficult. And there were famines back when the population was 1% of what it was now, there will be famines now and there will be famines when the population is 10 times what it is now. But it’s not correlated to population.
I think it’s fine for you as an individual, to act on your beliefs and, let’s just say, not have kids. But I don’t think it’s right to tell other people they can’t have kids just because you say the population is too much. That’s something I disagree with on a fundamental level. Because that is essentially sacrificing human life for the good of everyone else. It’s no different, imo, than saying we should let the virus kill as many people as possible to help “thin the herd”. And while I believe your intentions are pure, and I can see the logic of what you’re saying in intent, I don’t believe that’s a call you or anyone else has the right to make.
Besides which, the data clearly shows a positive correlation with population and standard of living and a negative correlation with poverty, among other things. And that’s been true for all of human history, as population increases, so do technological breakthroughs, and standard of living increases. So while I can at least understand your position (and I do), and I respect that you believe your assumptions are correct, let’s leave it at that because, in the absence of data that completely contradicts those statistics, we’re not likely going to reach agreement.
@NEStalgia
I choose one action to halt overgrowing population.
I WON'T getting married, be Single forever, Not making family, be happy to pursuing my hobbies rather than being imprisoned by engaged with someone. I have ZERO interest about having romantic relationship with other peoples, moreover an idea to have kids.
The trouble with limiting human reproduction is that people won't do it voluntarily. Like any other form of life, humans are driven to endlessly reproduce and expand their genetic footprint. This primal instinct is the unconscious base of all romantic and sexual desire. We can puff ourselves up all we like as so-called "rational actors," but at the end of the day, much of what we believe are just rationalizations for primal, Darwinian impulses.
The only option is to control reproduction through compulsion. The problem with this, as with all forms of central planning, is that people, with their necessarily limited intelligence and base of knowledge, can't foresee all of the issues that will arise from well-meaning schemes, leading to such unforeseen side-effects as have been evident, for example, as a result of China's one-child policy. I guess with sufficient power and knowledge (like, say, a muscular totalitarian state driven by rationalists who employ the use of the supercomputers to help them make their decisions alongside omnipresent surveillance), you could theoretically have a State that optimally controls population levels, but who wants to live in such a dystopic society?
A good place to start would probably be tax credits or some other financial incentive for people who engage in sterilization procedures relatively early in life, but I can't see that happening. And, again, that would like lead to unintended consequences that we're not necessarily comfortable with.
Well, it's not a place we're at yet, but 50 - 100 years down the line? I could see this becoming a very serious discussion. And that'll be even truer if a lot of current climate predictions come to pass, as there'll be even less habitable land for humans to make use of.
One thing is clear, I think: unless we're willing to set out into space, our current life-style is unsustainable in the long term, even with technological improvements. Eventually, we'll begin to run into hard limits related to availability of land, natural resources, etc. that we just can't get around. At that point, we'll need to either rapidly shift to alternative forms of social organization, or social and natural forces bigger than us will put us in check, and probably cause a lot of suffering and death in the process.
I'm an anti-natalist in spirit, so I'll not be contributing to our problems as a species in that one very specific respect.
I think it’s fine for you as an individual, to act on your beliefs and, let’s just say, not have kids. But I don’t think it’s right to tell other people they can’t have kids just because you say the population is too much. That’s something I disagree with on a fundamental level. Because that is essentially sacrificing human life for the good of everyone else. It’s no different, imo, than saying we should let the virus kill as many people as possible to help “thin the herd”.
Telling other people they shouldn't have children is morally equivalent to cheerleading mass death?
@La-weejee I mean, if his parents hadn't conceived him, he just wouldn't exist, and non-existent people aren't able to be thankful or sorrowful about anything.
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@Ralizah That's why education matters. The average number of children people have in The Netherlands is 1.6-1.7, and I assume it to be the same for comparable countries. Of course, due to immigration the overall population is still growing, but on average, people have less children. So theoretically the population should even decline if immigration stopped. Most of the population growth comes from third world countries these days. And it's often the lack of education, healthcare, proper governing, etc. that leads to an increase in children. If people, and especially women, are allowed to go to school, pursue a career, and lead a happy life without worrying about tomorrow's problems, then they tend to get less children on average.
@Ralizah true, but it's also very unevenly split along octane's points, the industrial world is in sharp population decline if you remove immigration additions. The industrial world is helping, not hurting the problem. Sort of. A lot of the population boom areas are places that can't even feed our shelter the kids... Some don't even have much potable water..... The only thing sustaining the population in those places is charity from the industrial world. Have a dozen kids you can't feed, beg someone else to provide food water and clothing, pack in like sardines, wait for a plague to halt it. Welcome to 2020!
Keep in mind that goes with jax's graph morbidly:. Those old fertility numbers were curbed by mortality rates... Large families were common, in a sense, to have spares.....a lot of kids didn't make it to adulthood, and many that did died to wars or prior plagues, so while fertility was much higher, population growth was a much shallower curve than birthrate.
There's always the other idea of birthrate control. Devise a biological agent that could reduce fertility rates drastically across the majority or all of the world's population without being able to point fingers at any one actor for interfering with birth rates. If i could think of that.... Someone with the ability to actually do it probably thought of it too.....
Doesn't mean it always works as planned though....
I just want to add, in case it hasn't been said, that education isn't the only limiting factor of lower birthrates. Cost of raising children is a big factor as well. Take Japan, there are a lot of issues causing their aging population, but one of the biggest - though least talked about - is the extremely high cost of raising children in Japan. My Japanese coworkers have told me how much of their money goes to it and it's an enormous margin. Having more than one or two children in Japan is nearly impossible for the average household if they want their kids to have access to the same things their peers will have for schooling, club activities etc...
Back on topic, as the numbers of cases sore past 720k globally and America continues to spiral out of control breaking 140k ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ) I find my worries about the future growing more each day.
One thing I can say about being younger - in a way, ignorance really was bliss. I kind of wish I could go back to the teenage mentality of not caring about the news...
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I’m getting out of the stock market. Can’t do anything about the 401(k) but, The money I do have in my individual Fidelity account and Robinhood, I’m pulling it first thing Monday morning. I’ve been doing a little bit of daytrading riding the swing highs and lows, making sure I sell the stocks before the close, just in case stocks shoot dramatically lower in the open. It could mean missing opportunity but it also protects against loss. But I’m taking it all out, paying off debt, and hunkering down to brace for unemployment.
I’m not sure how things are going to pan out, but it’s not looking good. Just like back in January when everyone was blissfully ignorant of what was coming, even now I think people, myself included, are blissfully ignorant about how bad things are really going to get. The average small business only has enough cash to last for about 3-4 weeks. What’s going to happen two months from now when, even if we’re not under ordered lockdown, people aren’t going to restaurants or spending in half the economic sectors? What about 6 months from now?
We could be looking at 1/3 of all US businesses going under, permanently. With similar effects all around the world. I think right now is a good time to own gold and, despite the massive future devaluation from unbridled printing, spending beyond means and now, “QE to infinity” policies, the US dollar. Yes, ultimately this unfettered printing and expanding of the monetary base will doom the dollar and ultimately, gold will be the only safe haven but, between point A (now) and point C (dollar hyperinflates, only hard assets and gold preserve wealth) I think we’ve got a wild ride ahead to point B, where the demand for US dollars skyrockets in the short term.
My priorities, in order 1 Paying off all debts ASAP 2 Getting US dollars, hard cash, in hand 3 Getting US dollars in the bank for digital transaction 3 Buying gold.
I’m going 1/3 in each. Third in cash, third in the bank, third in gold. I don’t know which way this thing is going to go, but I think that’s the safest way to hedge.
@JaxonH what debts? If any is credit card debt, screw that. Pay the minimum balance due. If in 6 months, things are worse, you can always walk away from that debt. They will have so many millions of default credit accounts, they won't have time to go after any except for the largest ones. BK is always an option to wipe the slate clear, too. But immediately paying those off serves no purpose right now. Obviously, student loans are forever and a mortgage is important to keep up, but even medical bills can be put off.
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