Sprinkle in a bit of educated guesswork and we had ourselves a release schedule that Nintendo could’ve copy-pasted directly into their corporate plans. But did they?
With Year One now in the books, let’s see how closely Nintendo followed the script.
Following the Script Minus Switch 2 Editions of older titles, Nintendo released 13 first-party titles in the Switch 2’s inaugural year, and the Playbook successfully identified 10 of them:
6 mainline entries, for Donkey Kong, Mario Kart, Mario Party, Metroid, Pokémon, Yoshi, and Star Fox*
2 new IPs
and 2 non-mainline releases in the Pokémon and Zelda franchises
Mario Kart and Pokémon titles are all but guaranteed in Year One, and the Switch 2 didn’t disappoint. Metroid Prime 4 was another easy prediction, given its inevitable dual launch for the Switch & Switch 2.
While I don’t expect a gold star for knowing the sun rises in the East, you’ll forgive a victory lap for my spreadsheet suggesting the first 3D DK title in 26 years and an otherwise unlikely Star Fox series revival. And yes, I’m lumping the 3D rail shooter into Year One even though it technically misses it by a couple of weeks.
Yoshi and the Mysterious Book was another solid prediction. Mario’s dino pal usually appears mid-cycle, but the math indicated an early appearance this time around.
Finally, and admittedly this is a stretch, Super Mario Party Jamboree arrived on the Switch only five months before the Switch 2 launched, but received a hefty Switch 2 Edition to satisfy the franchise’s Year One slot.
Year One Anomalies Like the pirate’s code, Nintendo’s Playbook proved to be more what you'd call guidelines than actual rules. Four predictions that didn’t come true were mainline Super Mario and Xenoblade Chronicles titles, a Fire Emblem remake, and a third New IP.
Mario’s absence is downright shocking. Two years ago, I proclaimed that “There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and a mainline Mario game during a Nintendo console’s first year.” Apparently we’re down to two absolutes, because, for the first time ever, Mario didn’t show up in Year One, notwithstanding the underwhelming Switch 2 Edition of Super Mario Bros. Wonder .
Technically, the GBA didn’t get an exclusive Mario either, although it did receive a couple of remastered ports (Super Mario Advance 1 & 2 ). Heck, even the lowly Virtual Boy received an exclusive Mario title .
Perhaps Nintendo decided that last year’s Super Mario Galaxy 1 & 2 bundle was sufficient to check their Year One Mario obligation. The Playbook forecast that game’s release, though not until Year 3. If only I had known that The Mario Movie sequel would bump up the compilation’s release date!
Mario Tennis Fever also came far sooner than anticipated, but given its lacklustre sales , it appears Nintendo should’ve stuck with its usual mid-cycle rally rather than a Year One serve.
Kirby Air Riders charged onto the scene as another surprise. My bingo card didn’t include a sequel to a 20-year-old, one-and-done Kirby spinoff title, but looking back, I should’ve known Kirby would make his annual appearance.
Xenoblade Chronicles 4 turned out to be a reach, although we did get (how do I put this nicely?) an unvaunted Switch 2 port of Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition .
Rounding out the year’s anomalies was the Switch 2 bucking a trend by introducing only two original IPs: Drag X Drive and Nintendo Switch Welcome Tour . The previous three consoles fielded exactly three new IPs each, making this the fewest new franchises for a home console’s first year since the Nintendo 64’s inaugural outing in 1996-1997.
Looking Ahead to Year Two Switch 2’s Year One slightly strayed from the script, but its sequel may be a greater test of Nintendo’s adherence to history.
President Furukawa has teased an increased volume of software — unusual for a console’s sophomore outing — but with a price hike just around the corner , Nintendo also needs to stack the deck with multiple system sellers. Year Two is where the Playbook meets the Price Hike head-on.
Given all that, let’s see how the Year Two predictions are holding up. Two years ago, the Playbook predicted:
mainline entries for four major franchises: Smash Bros, Kirby, Animal Crossing, and Nintendo Fit
entries in three 'minor' franchises: Mario Maker, Fire Emblem (confirmed! ), and Big Brain
spin-offs for Mario and Zelda
series revivals for Wario Land, F-Zero
a remake or remaster in the Mario & Luigi, Pokémon, and Golden Sun franchises
and finally, two new IPs
A few changes are in order, as a Splatoon spinoff is locked in and the now-overdue 3D Mario sequel is a near certainty. Pokémon may receive a mainline release two years in a row, but that will depend on the exact release date of Pokémon Winds & Waves .
A new mainline Advance Wars title feels unlikely given the lukewarm sales of Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp , so perhaps another dormant franchise takes its place.
Nintendo’s annual Zelda release historically toggles between spin-off and remake/remaster. Patterns dictated a spin-off in 2024 and a remake for 2025, but instead we got two straight spin-offs in the form of Echoes of Wisdom (which I consider a spin-off despite being canonical) and Age of Imprisonment .
In other words, we’re long overdue for a Zelda remake. Fingers crossed it’s the Ocarina of Time remake everyone’s been buzzing about.
And last, but not least, the Xenoblade series missed last year’s window, so we’re bumping it back to this coming year.
Wrap-up If all goes according to script, Year Two is shaping up to be a banger , with both quality and quantity to spare. It may even define the Switch 2’s entire legacy.
Your move, Nintendo. Don't make my data look bad.
Do you agree with the 'Playbook' approach, or has Nintendo changed too much for patterns to apply? Drop a comment below, and let us know what you think.
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