Topic: Amiibo Predictions

1) Obviously, but the children need to WANT them first. A Zelda figurine with a clear plastic straw up his butt attached to a stand doesn't scream 'must have' gift to me, whereas the kids I know who play with Skylanders & Disney figurines obsess over them and buy and trade them with friends. I can't imagine many kids tugging at their parents pant leg in a Toys R Us at Christmas time begging 'Buy me wii fit trainer pwwweeassse!' either.

2) Nintendo is trying to get a slice of the Skylanders/Disney Infinity pie but doing it in a confusing manner that breaks the mold that those two franchises set. For those, buying the toy means you can play as the character in the game. For Amiibo it potentially means buying a Bowser figurine and using it to unlock a new set of wheels in MK8. Which of those is more easily understood or consumer friendly?

It's bizarre that you see kids playing and trading Skylanders and DI, but cannot imagine them doing the same with Amiibo. It's like you're going out of your way to ignore the market and intended audience for these. Kids like Mike Wazowski toys, but they apparently don't like Pikachu toys. Ok...

What if they don't unlock anything at all in Mario Kart? Don't forget that these are capable of both sending and receiving data. This potentially enables them to communicate with other machines, with other games, and other IDs. This means sharing content/data with friends or even allowing your own games to interact with each other in unique ways.

It would also be a fast and easy way to transfer data between the Wii U and 3DS versions of the game. What if you only have a 3DS, but you know someone with a Wii U? You could load up your data to play on his Wii U. Not just the AI character data, mind you, all data. Some people spend hundreds of hours in certain games and to them, there may be value in storing it in a neat looking flash drive.

The technology is still in its infancy and certainly isn't limited to "buy toy, unlock thing in game." Just because Activision and Disney stopped there doesn't mean Nintendo will.

I have a feeling Nintendo is hoping to market these Amiibos to more than just the hardcore Ninty fans, as that would make it a rather niche product. Of course Nintendo wants kids to by these - they are toys. I fully understand that full grown adults will collect these, but kids will be the driving force behind these doing well.

Where are you reading or seeing that these figurines are of such "high quality" that they are better than the crap Skylanders and Disney are rolling out? The last photos I saw Kirby's eye decal was almost scratched off on the official Nintendo display...

I do believe Nintendo has bigger plans for these than just collector's items - as they did spend nearly a quarter of their E3 video talking up the Amiibo "plan." Let's hope they strive for something beyond personal AI bot after Smash hits.

Children's toys generally don't come fixed to a display stand with no moving parts.

The amiibo plan that they talked up already confirmed functionality for other games.

"I don't understand this product and I'm not the target audience anyway, so boo on everything." -You

LOL! So which is it? In one reply you say that Amiibo figures are just as toy-like as Skylanders/Disney figures, then in a reply right after you say that they are not toys because they are fixed to a display stand?? THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I SAID TO YOU AND YOU REPLIED THAT IT WAS STILL A TOY THAT KIDS WANT!

See how confusing these crappy things are?? I love Nintendo, but my interest in them begins and ends with the games and console. I have no interest in owning Nintendo clothing, posters, toys, music, etc. I think you are severely overestimating the Nintendo fan base in regards to their interest in purchasing and displaying toys/collectables. If these don't catch on with kids like the other NFC toys have, there isn't a huge demand among adult gamers for such things either. I have many friends who play games (all 20+ years old) and not a single one of them (to my knowledge) collects video game related toys or trinkets. These things won't change their mind either.

Haha, YES! Too perfect.
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And I'll do just that

I understand that you're excited that you didn't have to put any thought into a counter argument, but you're missing important context. I referred to them as toys in my reply to you because you're hung up on belittling adults who enjoy collectables. You've called them "dolls," "toys," and "trinkets." You're completely unprepared to hold any adult who appreciates figurines with any level of respect. I'm not sure you understand what a "figurine" is, so I said toy.

Yes, kids will be interested in these. Why? Because it's Nintendo merchandise. It doesn't even have to do anything. They have value entirely in being $12 figurines of popular Nintendo characters. I bought my little sister a Link plush doll that just sits around and takes up space and she loves it.

If Nintendo markets these to kids and parents in time for the holidays, yes, they will sell. No, the Wii Fit Trainer will not sell as well as Pikachu and Mario. Thanks for that insight.

So you're not the target audience. That's pretty obvious. LOL @ you for thinking there's no market for licensed merchandise though. Are you for real? I flat out don't believe you when you say you don't know anyone with video game merchandise. My brother is incredibly anti-materialistic and even he bought the $250 Titanfall collector's edition with the book and figurine.

Have you ever heard of Star Wars? Did you know that toys are by far the largest source of revenue for the brand? Like, it's not even close. The movies earn chump change in comparison to Han Solo action figures. Also note that the Han Solo action figures don't unlock anything in a Star Wars game.

Your goal here seems to be much more along the lines of laughing at people who like merchandise rather than actually take part in a discussion about its viability in the market. You're dismissing the audience and the technology for basically no reason other than "I don't care about it, so nobody cares about it."

The problem that Nintendo has, is that it's late in the game. Now, parents have their game rooms (living room/kids room/whatever) junked up with a million Infinity or Skylanders figures. Now, yeah, kids always have tons of toys, but will they do this thing again? Buy tons more figures for a game? Who knows....if it had been released at around the same time as the first Skylanders, it would have been a huge hit! However, now...I think it's still going to do way better than most people expect...but not like it would have if it had been before Disney Infinity rolled around to gobble up Skylanders sales.

Now you have 3 games...although Nintendo, and it's characters are a HUGE draw. It could be just the thing to really push hardware sales in a big way, during the Christmas season.

I do see how Nintendo is late on this but they aren't too late. Disney only started theirs last year. I am wondering since every Smash Character gets a figure does that mean some of their lesser known franchises or less spotlighted franchises are going to be coming back in some way to further support these figures?

Maybe. Where they go with this depends but if I had to guess right now...

Smash for this year.

Captain Toad and a Mario Kart one for early next year (but mostly focus on current ones because this just started and releasing them constantly after starting with like 40 wouldn't be a good idea!). 8-bit Mario, Waluigi and more Bowser for Mario Party, and then a decent amount for both Zelda and Star Fox late next year.

anything else or any changes would depend on demand. So if the Pokemon ones end up as the most popular, expect more Pokemon ones even if it doesn't involve a Pokemon game.

I don't think it will go places. I don't see that many people collecting them for the sake of it and they don't do nearly enough to justify buying them for the game. I think it will be small niche product. I think real collectors will have something better and more expensive already, and people looking for a toy will want something that is more like an action figure. The in-game usage is confusing, not worth a toy's price, and seems like a weird thing to connect a toy to.

I think Nintendo's plan (for the future) is to have Amiibo enhance most games, if this is what their plan is then it is possible that not every Amiibo will work for every Amiibo compatible game, which I think there will still need to be games that all Amiibo work on to offer some type of consistence (like a new series they all work on that is comparable to Skylanders or DI). So while the individual game may not benefit from Amiibo the real benefit comes from having multiple games that the same Amiibo works on. I remember for Skylanders 2, Activision made new versions of the Skylanders 1 toys. Same toys just different poses. Nintendo could look into doing something similar to create a rarity in the Amiibo as well. I think the options are much more open for Nintendo than Skylanders or DI as Nintendo is offering more games that work with Amiibo than the competition. But looking at each game's use of the Amiibo individually right now it seems lackluster.

Ok, I understand now. So when I said the Amiibo figurine is not a toy, your response was to say that it IS indeed a kids toy, and when someone else said that the Amiibo figurine was a toy, your retort was that it is actually a collectible figurine for adults. I don't know why I would have originally found this to be an odd thing to say, so I apologize. You obviously have a cogent argument.

I recently went to Toys R Us because I had to pick up some Lego for a nephews gift, and near the half bare shelves of Marvel Lego Playsets, I saw several of these..

In your world, these should have been sold out because not only do children want to own them (they all love Nintendo don't ya know) but millions of hardcore Nintendo fans who are adults love buying these things too! Licence to print money!! Same goes for the Super Mario gummy snacks I see at the grocery store. They must be one of the most popular snacks on the planet.

I really truly honestly do not, unless they buy these things and hide them from others due to shame. Paying $250 for a video game (especially from a non-established franchise) is absolutely absurd, and I hope he learned from that mistake.

Wait....let me fess up to something.

A couple weeks ago some co-workers and I stopped in at McDonalds and along with some ice coffees a couple of us paid a $1.50 or whatever it was and got Mario Kart Happy Meal figurines. We slid them around the table as we talked, and when we were finished we left them there and they were lost forever.

So yes, I too suppose I am now a collector of Nintendo figurines.

I don't know if Han Solo figurines on their own have sold in the billions of dollars, but I get your point. I too used to collect Star Wars toys (got gifted a bunch of old ones from an uncle when I was a kid and have new ones) but that ended when I was about 14 years old. I now have over 200 figures in a large plastic bin in my basement, waiting to be sold. I will hold onto them until the new movie comes out, then try to sell them online when interest is high again.

The Han Solo figurine was fully articulated and could be played with on it's own or enjoyed in conjunction with one of the various vehicles and playsets which were released over the years. It didn't need to be used with a video game to be enjoyed.

However.....the three inch tall non poseable Han Solo Amiibo figurine attached to a base with a clear plastic straw up it's butt? A less popular choice among kids back in 1981.

Wait a minute....are you trying to say that you think Amiibo is going to outsell Nintendo video games?!! What was the point of this Star Wars comparison? Nintendo toy sales have never EVER come anywhere close to touching Star Wars merchandise earnings.

No, I'm merely trying to point out that I honestly don't think these Amiibo figurines are going to sell like wildfire (like many people here believed after they were announced) and that the market for such items (without a hook to pull kids in like Skylanders) is actually much smaller than you perceive it to be. Now, I realize this may be hard for a self professed "weeaboo" and "Nintendo fandork" to believe, but you are actually the minority, NOT the majority. Most people have no interest or use for collecting figurines like this, and cheap looking ones at that. To be honest, if I didn't know what these Amiibo things were, just looking at them I would have assumed they were Happy Meal toys or something sold in a capsule machine for $2. They don't look great, and thus far, have very niche usage when it comes to using them on the Wii-U.

Will they sell? Of course they will, I'm sure some people want them. But these won't be a game changer or blow up and become the new Power Ranger or Tickle Me Elmo doll like past Christmases, with parents fighting each other in the aisles to grab them or buying them off some guy in the parking lot for $50. They are dinky little toys (I watched the E3 debut video of them last night, and was shocked by how small they actually are) with ambiguous functionality when it comes to their usage with video games. It seems to me (and several other people in this thread) that for Nintendo this is too little too late and a weak attempt to try and get into the NFC figurine market.

I have absolutely zero interest in them.

Oh yeah, I'm getting Pit and Pikachu and Yoshi and Samus. Maybe also Link, Fox and Mario. Which are you planning on getting?

Fine. Here are my predictions:

Nintendo collectors will buy them. Kids will buy Pikachu. They probably won't move console sales, but Nintendo will still profit. There

Their success really depends on just two things:
1) How many people want to collect them (and I'd assume that's the larger portion atm)

2) How cool the implementations in the games are. Honestly, the only game we know how it'll work with is Smash, and the implementation was good enough to get me to buy 1 or 2, but that's about it. We don't know what they'll do in other games, for better or worse. If they unlock a cool looking car or simply a skin for a character in mario kart 8, that'll get me to buy a few more, and then there's whatever happens with mario party, and the next game and the next.

I imagine at first it won't surpass disney infinity or skylanders, heck probably won't be close, but that's because the value of skylanders and infinity is in the characters you unlock(high value right away) and depends on the games you have that are compatible with them(which is very small amount) while amiibo's value is in whatever it unlocks(low to medium value) and also depends on the games you have that are compatible with them(which looks like it might be high actually). The value of amiibos will rise with each new game that comes out that's compatible with them, and with the portal for 3ds this isn't limited to just wii u games, but also 3ds games(which probably means much less impact on wii u sales but more people interested in amiibo)

I do think this line of thinking is a bit problematic. The whole "It's Nintendo, of course it will sell!" outlook has clearly been proven wrong over the past couple years. I see a lot of excess Nintendo merchandise at stores all the time, I'm not sure why you assume these small "figurines" will be so different?