PS5 Will Sell More Than 'Switch 2' In The US This Year, Says Analyst

Nintendo hasn't revealed the switch 2 yet, may be the switch 2 will be released in the end of the year or not only nintendo know. Wait and see.

I think it will, depends on when it's released.

If they named it the Switch U and released it with "New Super Mario Bros. Wonder U", it would sell -30% better.

Lost me at "provided it launches within the first half of the year" - who gives themselves until April to announce the console they intend to launch before July?

Depends on:
Time of release
What the device is
The games

Too early to make a prediction.

The thing hasn't even been shown off yet and people are already estimating how much it'll sell.

Good for them

At least the Switch 2 will have Nintendo games! What does the PS5 have? It's just a bad PC. Astrobot does look good though, not going to lie. Maybe there's some other exclusives?

‪I’m going to go ahead and press F to doubt. ‬

Didnt Nintendo also say directly that they're producing alot of units to meet demand and fend of scalpers?

@Dazman I played a few of their games on my Steam Deck and they were decent, Horizon and Unchartered 4 though I must admit they do go on abit too long for me - then again, being on PC they're not exlusive now
Actually - heres hoping for Switch 2 ports of Sony games!

Seems likely, since PS5 is readily available 12 months of this year. 2026 will be an interesting one, though.

Stores will sell out of initial stock. Certain major centers may get quick resupply, others not. Mass buy in might not hit as strongly at launch as Switch 1. Switch 1 will continue to sell. It will definitely sell some millions of units, but lots of factors for exactly how many within the launch window.

@ozwally Yeah, they do look good. But if they come to PC eventually I don't see the point unless one is really desperate to play it now. GTA 6 might pull in a few sales for that reason, but personally, I hate playing FPS on a console. It's much more fun for me to play GTA on PC in first person with no auto aim.

I think if there's going to be ports, you'll probably see a lot come very early. I saw a graphic somewhere of all the third-party developers bringing games to Switch 2 and it was quite a large list.

Doubt it.

(that's all I got to say, but it was too short lol)

Of course it will since the switch 2 isn't what it'll be called anyway. Besides that how is an established system that already has a vast library not gonna outsell a system that as far as we know may not even have 15 games at launch?

Depend on the stock and the launch games, considering switch 1 sold more than ps4, I think switch 2 will sells more than ps5 too.

Not a single analyst would have predicted in the 12 months leading up to March 2017 that the original Switch would be one of the top-selling consoles in history with one of the biggest and best software libraries, still selling in good numbers in its 8th year without a successor on the market.

Economists make educated guesses but they're all just guesses.

we don't know anything about "Switch 2", even a name
and some "analysts" already have posted some predictions )))

You know why they call them analysts? It's because they talk out of their ass a lot.

@Dazman that graphic would be cool to see, I'll have a look for it! I must admit i'd love GTA6 on Switch 2 but I cant see it myself, maybe 5? Some nice 3rd party ports would do me just fine, theres so much out there I've not played

@Dazman Oh and a Switch 2 patch for Arkham Knight please!

What a joke. He has no clue what the level of interest will be in the device or what the pre-launch, post-launch production numbers are for Switch 2 yet confidently predicts a supply shortage for later in the year

Maybe save your economic analysis for when you have real world data to analyse and make predictions on

Let's all take a moment to appreciate this brilliant mind. He took the time to think about past console launches and just points out what happens every single time. This is something only a true analyst can do on social media.

Thanks to this news, I laughed until tears came to my eyes. According to what? People have no reason to buy a PS5. Unless they are Sony fanboys.

Hahah nope. And let me guess that mystery analist is the Ceo of PlayStation 😂

Where's Positive Pachter when you need him?

Somebody better fire that analyst. There's nothing to analyse yet. There's no release date, no official reveal, nothing to base this "prediction" on. What an utter disgrace for analysts worldwide.

@HotGoomba perhaps SwiitchU? With a standard white version and a black deluxe version launching with more storage and NintendolandDeluxe. And then market it the exact same as original Switch (same logo etc) just to make sure everyone knows it’s a new console right?

How can they even guess that without knowing what the Swutch 2 is? Some folk really make a job for themselves lol.

@KayFiOS yes they always misspell analcyst.

@JokerCK There is this small game GTA6. Even if it would be released on Switch 2 on the same day as on PS5 and Xbox Series X/S (which is highly unlikely for several reasons), Nintendo would probably not be able to manufacture enough Switch 2 systems to compete.

@HotGoomba
*Looks at Wii U
Make that -80% better

My prediction is the console will launch with some games to buy as well, it will play said games and some people including myself will buy console and games and play said games. Do I get a job as an analyst?

Something that is available the whole year will sell more than something available maybe half that.

WOW! Next he'll tell us grass is green 😮

how can you predict a number like that when there is nothing to base this prediction on? is it based on vibes?

No Sh*t Sherlock.
It's not really surprising as the Switch 2 will not be released until the holiday season anyway.
This is not news

I respect alot of what Mat has to say at Circana. You watch any interview of his and he has alot of data regarding how North American customers purchase and takes the job quite seriously.

As it is right now, alot of people are still saving for a PS5 and waiting to get Grand Theft Auto VI. Its launch will be staggering to the point where about everyone in the industry is hoping for it to be the game that re-energizes the market wholely in a “rising tide” kind of way. The Switch successor will be big, but GTAVI will take over the masses if it can stay in the schedule.

Well, the Switch "2" isn't even going to be on the market for the full year, so, yeah.

Hope he didn't strain his brain coming up with that.

if the switch 2 comes out in april or may it will sell more than the ps5.furukawa has said he wants to have enough consoles available at launch year to prevent scalping.

@JokerCK are u joking, right? gta man kk

Idk honestly, anyone with their ear to the ground can feel that the hype for Switch 2 is on a level above normal forecasting. This is PS2 levels of hype, EVERYONE wants to know what's going on with Switch 2, it's inescapable in the gaming and tech space in the very same way PS2 was in 2000.

Wii was released late into FY07 (Q3) and still sold 8+ million units in the US in it's first 12 months on market. That's with the Wii's legendary stock shortages, mind you. We know that Nintendo intend on having ample stock for Switch 2 on shelves at launch, partly because they want to prevent scalpers from eating into sales, but mainly because they are clearly expecting Switch 2 to sell very well.

Mark my words, Switch 2 is going to be the biggest launch in gaming history, and it will absolutely destroy the paltry 4 million sales mark predicted here.

Well, that's the reasonable guess. However, it all depends on which games Nintendo is planning for launch year.

That depends on what games Switch 2 have at launch and later.

After the Switch was revealed , I recall the majority of analysts saying it was going to flop. So any prediction about how it'll sell before we even know what it is, is not worth the paper it's written on.

It's all going to come down to what games it launches with. How can anyone make a prediction without knowing what games it will have?

No it won't. As long as they can kkep up with demand it will even sell more than 8m this year in the USA, and more than 20m worldwide. It's releasing on April 3 anyway

How much did WiiU sell it's first year?

PS5: available all year.
NS2: available for hopefully more than half of it.

Heeeeeeeere’s your sign.

This prediction seems inconsistent when considering the broader picture. While it's true that the PS5 is established and readily available, several key factors make it unlikely for it to significantly outperform the Nintendo Switch 2, even in the US market.

1. Historical Launch Success:
The original Nintendo Switch sold nearly 15 million units globally in its first year, and the demand for a successor is likely even greater now due to the aging hardware of the current Switch. With proper marketing and game launches, the Switch 2 could easily match or exceed its predecessor’s numbers.

2. Unmatched Nintendo Appeal:
Nintendo has a unique position in the market, appealing to a broad demographic, including families and casual gamers, that the PS5 doesn't fully cater to. The release of a new Mario, Zelda, or Pokémon title alone could create unparalleled hype, boosting initial sales significantly.

3. Backward Compatibility as a Major Advantage:
One key factor the article overlooks is the Switch 2's likely backward compatibility with the existing Switch library. This means that, from day one, the console will already have access to blockbuster titles like Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. This feature ensures that even early adopters will have a wealth of games to play, making it a compelling purchase.

4. Hardware Limitations Are Speculative:
The claim about hardware constraints for the Switch 2 is speculative. While initial shortages are common for any new console, Nintendo has a proven track record of managing demand efficiently, as seen with the original Switch.

5. Focus on Exclusives and Innovation:
The PS5's library of games, while impressive, doesn't necessarily offer the same groundbreaking appeal as Nintendo exclusives. Titles like Breath of the Wild or Mario Kart have long-lasting impact and drive console sales for years, not just at launch.

6. Global vs. Local Context:
The article focuses on US sales, but it’s important to remember Nintendo's global reach. Even if the PS5 outpaces the Switch 2 in the US for a few months, the Switch 2 could still dominate globally due to its strong presence in markets like Japan and Europe.

In conclusion, the article's prediction underestimates the immense hype and fan loyalty Nintendo can generate, especially with a properly managed launch and blockbuster games. With backward compatibility, the Switch 2 will have an extensive library from day one, further solidifying its appeal. While the PS5 will remain competitive, dismissing the potential success of the Switch 2 seems premature and speculative at best.

@JokerCK

Or you know, they want a powerful console to play their games on but do go off.

@WheresWaveRace sorry but no, you're over-qualified

I'll stick to trusting my uncle at Nintendo over some "analyst" on Sony's payroll, thank-you-very-much.

My son sold his PS5. He didn't play it much because of the lack of games or games he thought were worth playing.

I highly doubt Switch Successor will be coming out BEFORE the 2025 Thanksgiving/Christmas season!

There's no way they'd kill XenoBlade, which comes out in March, by releasing the new system so close to it, unless XenoBlade is a cross gen game!

XenoBlade is a massive seller for Nintendo

People going to do anything they can to play gta 6, so this would not surprise me

that's just assuming "Switch 2" does release this year which there is zero guarantee it does

Switch 2 will announced this month, but be available in late March – I almost guarantee it. So a chunk of this year will already be gone.

Whaaaaat?! Not the PS5Pro?!?! That definitely-higher-quality version?!

In other words, a product already out in the market for a long time and already familiar to the general public will sell better than a new product that will not be as familiar to people until some more marketing.

What other wise words shall we be blessed with next?

Hopefully it will. PS5 is an excellent console, and it deserves some time in the sun. Hopefully Switch 2 sells really well. And perhaps some people will pick up an Xbox as well. Competition makes a healthy market, which leads to more choices for the consumer.

(and hopefully people continue to buy the disc version, because imo that is super-important)

@nathatruc Nintendo did inform shareholders that it will launch by the end of March. The system is already in production, that wouldn't have happened for at least another few months for an end of year launch.

@Arkay It's easy to predict how much it will sell...you simply assume every unit made will sell, then you predict how many can be made.

Obviously the PS5 will sell more if the Switch 2 doesn't even come out until like mid-year. I think anyone with half a brain could make that assumption.

Then again, this is Nintendo, so if the system comes out early enough in the year and has some strong software to support it, anything is possible.

Didn't know they had a crystal ball

On one hand, likely considering Ps5 has had a longer run than Switch 2 will have plus a larger selection of games (not counting backwards compatibility of either system)….

On the other hand, “hot fresh newness” which typically causes a consumer frenzy…. This will wear off unless Nintendo keeps a hot streak going of major driving releases…. Something like a Mario, a Zelda, a Pokémon, an animal crossing, a Metroid, a Xenoblade, a Bayonetta….. all spaced about 2 months apart. If they can maintain say 1-2 major franchise releases every 3 months it should drive the sales into a constant momentum…..

Also, they’ll need to market and hard, the fact that your current library of Switch games will carry over, this will also be a huge driving factor to get people to “switch” over, pardon the pun.

I love these genious "anal-ists" who must have a private Oracle or a crystal ball to make their unfounded comments.
How much will sell either system, dependes on the good old demand/supply, we barely know anything about the SW2, at this point anything is a superfluous guess.

Dont care about this «war», but i acknowledge that sales is important, and switch 2 Will sell ALOT.
Nintendo got Nintendo games, easy win.

It would be funny if the Switch 2 launch and then completely outsell the PS5 this gen. The PS4 launch 4 years earlier than the Switch but still failed to outsell the Switch. This is the PS5 5th year on the market and it still had not beaten the Switch numbers. Typically this is suppose to be the year when Sony was to announce a successor (the PS6) to the PS5. Sony usually announce a successor 5 years after they launch their current system and then kept that current system for another 5 years even after the new one launch. It's also suppose to be the year when the PS4 is completely discontinued so PS5 and PS6 could get supports.

@Iconoclysm nintendo announced that they will reveal the switch successor before march 31, not that they will launch the successor. https://x.com/NintendoCoLtd/status/1787736518762881197?t=xo-XFLSDiG1nwm-xk3fL5g&s=19

this analyst needs to lay off the magic 8 ball switch 2 isnt even out yet to make that assumption.

Complete non-news.

Quite naturally Nintendo can't sell more systems than they can make. And if they have to launch worldwide, presumable closer to the holiday season, there will be a limit to have many systems can be available in the US between launch and new years.

This fiscal year, which ends on March 31, the PS5 is expected to sell approximately 21 million units globally, with the U.S. typically accounting for about 45% of those sales. Looking ahead, Sony projects slightly lower global sales for the coming fiscal year, estimating 18 million units. Based on historical trends, U.S. sales for the PS5 can reasonably be projected to be around 8 million units.

In its first year, the Nintendo Switch sold 14 million units globally, including 5 million in the U.S. Given its immense popularity, it’s likely that the Switch 2 will surpass these figures—assuming no significant manufacturing limitations or lack of compelling launch titles. If the Switch 2 launches with a major title like a new Mario Kart and avoids production bottlenecks, I, the ever-reliable MarioLinkSamus, predict it will achieve 25–30 million global sales and 9–14 million in the U.S. within its first year.

Thus, the analyst's projections that the PS5 will outsell the Switch 2 this coming fiscal year are wrong. Despite the PS5’s head start, the Switch 2 is poised to outsell it by approximately 3–6 million units, cementing its dominance in the market.

Well that's pretty obvious isn't it?

There's a new Monster Hunter, Ghost of Yotei and a certain game called GTA 6 coming this year that will shift millions of PS5 consoles on it own.

With the Switch 2 it all depends when it releases, what the launch games are and most importantly how much stock Nintendo have for this year. It can't outsell the PS5 if it hasn't got the stock to do so.

This is the most pointless prediction ever.
Predicting sales for a piece of yet unannounced hardware, with an unknown price or release date.
This also doesn't take into account any software, which is also completely unknown as it stands. 😅
Utter pure speculation... Utterly pointless 🤣

I can see it. Honestly since it’s got confirmed backwards compatibility and carryover of features from the Switch, I doubt Switch 2 will sell as well, there won’t be as urgent of a “need” to access its library of games for more casual consumers.

@rhemfur only the “nintendo reaches a broader demographic” of all of that is true. the rest is just subjective

@JokerCK profile pic - check , username - check. you’re definitely joking

“Games Analysts” are as trustworthy as a modern day “Games Journalist”.

@Zenibeans I don't think you're off base. However, the landscape certainly has changed. Major third party games are now able to be played portably by portable PC's boasting pretty decent specs these days. I haven't ran into one game that hasn't been able to run at 60fps at 1080p on my ROG Ally X.

A big part of owning a switch was having games on the go, something that we didn't have a lot of options for at the time of the Switch's launch. Which I believe will take a chunk of business from people that just want to game on the go.

I really don't know if the Switch 2 will reach the heights of the original switch. The Switch was a standout device at the time of it's launch and now the portable appeal isn't at impactful as it once was due to the multiple options to do just that.

Who needs a Switch 2 when you can have this? But not gonna lie, it seems kind of early to announce something that won’t be available until October.

He openly admits he is completely ignorant about current manufacturing data. Well hello, that's actually part of your job description as an analyst, to analyze available data before drawing conclusions.

Shipping data is showing abnormally large quantities of mass production. Console shortages should not be as problematic for Switch 2 as past console launches. If everything goes to plan, I can see Switch 2 selling anywhere from 8-10 million consoles in the first fiscal year.

It does seem unlikely that basically a switch pro, if all the leaks are correct, will have the same impact as the original. Hope it all turns out to be a hoax and nintendo goes in a new direction

We don’t even know when it drops. So how could anyone actually make a real guess at the sales? Nintendo Life - you do not, I repeat DO NOT have to make an article out of every single bread crumb you find. The entire premise of this one is rooted in nonsense.

It must be fun having a job where you make stuff up and people quote you. Seriously, they just make educated guesses at best.

@Chunkboi79 That's a fair point, but the handheld PC market really has not cut into Switch sales by any meaningful metric. These are luxury enthusiast devices after all, and carry hefty price tags for what they offer. Prices are important, because making a $330-520 investment vs a $1300 investment (AUD) is a big difference, and going by reactions to the PS5 Pro, affordability is king. Your console-going consumer at large does not realistically consider these devices, since they are significantly more expensive and more complex to use vs a dedicated plug-and-play portable like the Switch. Case in point, the Steam Deck, widely reported as the best selling handheld PC has sold "multiple millions" according to Valve in late 2023, with the last concrete numbers we had being 1.62 million sales in late 2022. By comparison, Switch sold 17.97 million units in FY23 alone.

The second thing to consider is that Nintendo always leverages the most important thing to a console, exclusives. You cannot buy the new Mario or Zelda or Animal Crossing on a handheld PC like the ROG Ally or Steam Deck, and many dedicated users of those handhelds will likely buy a Switch 2 themselves as the console matures and builds a packed library of exclusives. One can make the argument that emulation could negate this effect, and perhaps it would impact the cross-sales between existing handheld PC users and the Switch 2 (if they are able to emulate it, that is); but it will not impact overall sales of Switch 2 in any measurable way. To most people, modern system emulation is too complicated and too obscure to deal with.

To enthusiasts like you and me, the jump between Switch and Switch 2 will not feel as dramatic, since we are in the tech sphere and already have experience with powerful handheld devices. To the wider consumer base though, the jump in power and performance will be the most significant upgrade since the transition from the DS line to the Switch itself. We are looking at a jump from PS3 levels to PS4 Pro (if the specs we have are right), and that's nothing to sneeze at.

My prediction might be a bit brave, though I do anticipate the Switch 2 matching or exceeding sales of its predecessor provided the system is not just a standard spec boosted Switch. Hopefully there is a compelling feature tied to this new console that is able to capture the interest of the wider public. That said, I have a good feeling

Predictions shmedictions. Doesn't matter either way, right? Doesn't surprise me when a current gen system outsells a next gen in the same year.

“9 year old better at doing fractions homework than newborn infant”

I thought previous sources told NintendoLife it would win the console wars 🤣

@MeloMan Switch 2 is going to be ‘previous gen’ at best.

@Zenibeans Yeah don't get me wrong I'm excited for the console too. Being around long enough I know that Nintendo has struck gold then has done something widely tone deaf. I'm hoping that's not the case and honestly a successor for the switch with a boost in power is really all they need right now. At this point metroid is looking to be one of their primary launch titles for the system. While metroid sales haven't been that massive it'll put some spotlight on that franchise.

If Nintendo can go into the next generation with a stellar launch line up they have nothing to worry about. I remember the launch of the switch when BOTW had more units sold than switches lol

It's typical of the media headline writers & analysts when they write out of context headlines like this. Simple common sense would tell you it's highly unlikely something that is sold in a few months won't outsell something that is established and that is selling for a whole dang year. If the Switch 2 does somehow outsell the PS5 this year, that would look massivley bad for Sony.

I honestly think the Switch 2 will sale as many consoles as Nintendo decides to produce. Could be 3 million, could be 8. Who can say for sure? It'll for sure do good numbers either way though. At this point that's pretty much a given. I think it'll out do PS5 in due time though eventually.

Hasn't even been announced yet. Somebody's clearly a narcissist of they think they can predict things that specific, lol