@BlueOcean I think you're looking at it wrong, PS5 outselling Series X only really counts as a failure for Microsoft if you're looking through the mindset of console wars. In these days of the console wars being long gone, one system outselling the other would just be a learning experience.
If PS5 outsells Series X Microsoft would realize that a better 1st party lineup will improve Series X sales, perhaps the next Xbox systems need less confusing names, in future events the focus should be on games rather than just Game Pass, perhaps they should get rid of the Gold requirement for at least free to play titles, etc.
If Series X outsells PS5, Sony would realize that their actions over PS5 info cycle has been very arrogant. Transparency is important, don't leave important details out of events, give people plenty of notice when it comes to stuff you could miss out on, a Series S like model may actually be beneficial for PS5, etc.
Both outcomes would provide valuable lessons for the one with less sales. By PS5 outselling Series X, I wasn't meaning a large gap but rather a small gap that Series X would easily overcome if better 1st party support is inbound.
One thing that i realized after watching some trailers of upcoming games, there were some games have NO release for Xbox machines. (PS4 & Switch version only)
Some titles such as Yonder the Cloud Catcher Chronicles, Effie, Dragon Quest Builders 1 & 2, etc.
What makes the developers avoid Xbox machines for their upcoming games ?
Mostly Japanese developers. Almost no-one buys Xbox in Japan, and so people become used to Japanese games being mostly Playstation focused. So in lots of situations the sales end up being a lot smaller on Xbox (Final Fantasy XV sold something like 6 million on PS4 and just 1.5 million on Xbox One) and so they save time and just don't bother releasing on there at all.
I expect that PS5 will outsell Xbox. But not so much as PS4 vs Xbox One. Microsofts new studios need time so maybe in the latter half of generation they will gain momentum when those 15 studios start releasing games (Microsoft have more 1st party studios).
Impossible to predict the long term. It'll depend a lot on how good the exclusives are.
My prediction over the short term (maybe first 6 months) is that Playstation will slightly outsell Xbox, but I think it'll be quite close. I think the Series S price difference will have a huge difference.
It's pretty wild how much Japanese support improved over the course of the generation for Xbox One, though. I expect near-parity, in most instances, in terms of that support, except for games from small, Sony-loyalist developers like Falcom.
Even those games come to PC, though.
Currently Playing on January 13, 2026: The Hundred Line: Last Defense Academy (PC)
Anyway, I have a bold prediction about Game Pass. I think as soon as the Playstation exclusivity ends for FFVII Remake (each part) and FFXVI, they will launch straight into Game Pass.
So like April 2021 comes along and FFVII Remake goes into Game Pass.
@Dezzy Yes but what that has to do with not supporting their new consoles or celebrating the quality of their games now? Your reply didn't make any sense.
@Grumblevolcano But don't you realise that the games we are talking about are for those new consoles? Those games are being developed right now. I told you, all Xbox One versions of AAA games but Halo Infinite will be scrapped and here we are. Microsoft is heavily focused on improving their games for the next-gen consoles, PC and xCloud and Xbox One won't be as supported as they thought and said it would. They might launch xCloud for Xbox One but they'll make sure that the new games are as good as they can.
The more success that Series S/X finds now and the more subscribers that Microsoft gets, the more that they are going to take the development business seriously. They have more studios than Sony now and they know it's not a matter of quantity but quality, that's why they're taking their time and they didn't want to rush Halo Infinite (I know, long development and all that) while Sony rushed their PS4 semi-sequel that was supposed to be a PS5 exclusive to show the power of PS5 and it's now a cross-gen game that we'll be able to play on PS4.
Because you say now that you only wish a small difference then it's easier to agree with you but Microsoft is doing everything that they can do to right every wrong that Don Mattrick made. We all want more and better games but Microsoft also does in order to keep people subscribed and they really need a lot of people subscribed. They already make the best hardware: Xbox One X, Series S/X, they have the most consumer-friendly policies and upgrades, the best backwards compatibility, they really want Xbox to be the best gaming platform and they know that games is a crucial part of it. Let's give them some credit for what they've done.
@DarthNocturnal I know, next-gen expansions won't be cheap for a while, even less on PS5 but the good thing is that you can keep all games on your external HDD and move the next-gen games to the internal SSD when you are ready to play them.
@Ralizah@Justifier Xbox is not popular in Japan at all but some Japanese games sell more outside Japan and Microsoft is supporting those games: Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, Yakuza, etc. Most Japanese love playing on their phones so I expect xCloud to be popular there. Phil Spencer appreciates Japanese games and I like that.
What makes you assume it about that game in particular?
It could be a good console selling point if it's the (assumed to exist) upgraded version for next-gen. I'd love that game in 60fps, and preferably some of the texturing issues fixed.
I assume they must have a door texture for Cloud's room somewhere!
@Dezzy Mainly Square Enix's massive support of Game Pass so far and xCloud is Microsoft's best chance of doing well in Japan.
@BlueOcean Not quite, doing very well at launch would tell Microsoft it's all about Game Pass (unless Gears Tactics turns out to be a massive hit which would be a really nice surprise) and that subscription can run well without new 1st party titles (otherwise it wouldn't have become so big over the past 2 years when there was like 3 1st party games per year). As for your point about xCloud, Microsoft's upgrading those servers next year to Series X hardware.
@BlueOcean Not quite, doing very well at launch would tell Microsoft it's all about Game Pass (unless Gears Tactics turns out to be a massive hit which would be a really nice surprise) and that subscription can run well without new 1st party titles (otherwise it wouldn't have become so big over the past 2 years when there was like 3 1st party games per year). As for your point about xCloud, Microsoft's upgrading those servers next year to Series X hardware.
What do you mean? Are you saying that xCloud, a streaming service, can't work on Xbox One because Microsoft are upgrading the servers with Series X hardware next year?
Also, you believe that Microsoft set 15 studios up for nothing? Three first-party games per year until now? I don't think so. Game Pass has had much more than that.
Yeah they do have some kind of connection with Square Enix actually. They were one of the first 3rd party developers to offer Xbox One X enhancements on old games too.
@BlueOcean No, I misread your comment. I was just saying that the xCloud servers were being upgraded next year.
As for 1st party lineup, 2020 has a lot more than 3 1st party games released but 2018 was 3 (Sea of Thieves, State of Decay 2, Forza Horizon 4) and 2019 was 2 (Crackdown 3, Gears 5). The July event made it seem that next year is going to be more like 2018/2019 and with Halo Infinite delayed it probably being the big holiday 2021 game (so like Flight Sim early 2021, Psychonauts 2 summer 2021, Halo Infinite holiday 2021).
Playing Xbox games by XCloud or streaming on other device (smartphone for example) for me doesn't sounds that i really own the game.
It feels like i only buy the service to play Xbox games by rent. And the Game Pass choices are not for Casual gamer like me even there are a few games i like such as Portal Knights, The Sims 4, etc.
@Grumblevolcano I see. There's one thing for certain, those Xbox Game Studios need time and some of them are new. Obsidian is prolific but others take a long time to do anything at all but that's true for Sony's studios as well.
We can't expect AAA games every month (look at Nintendo with no AAA equivalent at all this year) but I believe that 15 studios is good enough for Game Pass.
I like the variety of small projects like Battletoads and Grounded, 2D games like Ori and big games like Flight Simulator (not really a game), Halo Infinite, Everwild, Avowed and Fable. Game Pass is an ever-growing deal as first-party games remain and includes games from all generations.
I definitely prefer it over the first game. Story is more interesting, I love the cutscenes in Anniversary edition, gameplay is slightly better, and the main thing Halo 1 sucked at (the boring repetitive environments) is completely fixed. The environments in this game are incredibly good and varied.
My only 1 issue is the way it alternates between Master Chief and Arbiter really messes up the pacing, and pulls you out of the story. At one point when you go back to Master Chief, I genuinely had no idea what he'd been doing so had to re-read the story online, Lol.
Guess having a PC is really going to be worthwhile this gen for me.
Really curious as to how this will affect GhostWire Tokyo being a PS5 console exclusive. Either way this is a massive step in the right direction for them and a little poetic considering the console version of Morrowind was famously Xbox-exclusive
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