Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@Grumblevolcano sigh that clip just reminds me how little the new game is visually different from the old game....

@ReaderRagfish yeah the dual release makes the numbers hard to track. I get the impression there was a lot of double dipping between WiiU and 3DS, so the numbers might condense more than they appear at a glance as well. I somehow got stuck with a bunch of splatoon playmates that were hardcore (competitive) smashers, but every single one of them had both 3DS and WiiU versions ready to go on a moment's notice. I imagine most hardcore smashers had both copies. Heck, I have both copies and I'm not even a core smasher! Though I got the 3DS one because the board game on WiiU was an insult and I wanted at least some single player Smash fun

@EvilLucario The problem with Metroid Prime, I think is, it's kind of the wrong game on the wrong system. It's a remnant from the GCN legacy when Nintendo tried to go toe to toe with PS and compete for core gamers with a "grittier" FPS type game. But that strategy didn't work, and so by the time we got to Wii and they reversed course, we were stuck with a "core gamer" game locked to a Nintendo machine, and core gamers were clearly no longer Nintendo customers. It was a mismatch of audience. The people who wanted to play Prime didn't want to buy a Nintendo console just to play that game, and the people that bought the console weren't enthused with the type of game. So sales were meager.

We may see a bit of a change with 4 since Switch seems to be appealing to core gamers much more than any console from Nintendo since the SNES. But it still won't be a top 10 system seller. Well...maybe it will....depends on marketing.

@ReaderRagfish I think the top 5 will be:
1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
2. Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee
3. The first retail 2D Mario game on Switch
4. Pokemon 2019 if Let's Go series doesn't continue, next Let's Go game if Let's Go series does continue
5. Animal Crossing Switch

Speaking of sales, I hope Xenoblade 2 at least cracks 2 million by the end of the Switch's lifecycle.

@Grumblevolcano That's a believable list based on what we know/expect so far. I think we may get some unexpected surprises later on, possibly coming from third parties. (Heck maybe Octopath if this Japan pace continues )

@EvilLucario What's it up to now? Seems believable. Does that include Torna expansion sales or just base game?

@EvilLucario @NEStalgia I dunno, nobody expected God of War to be the success it currently is. You never know. If the game looks good, and they get the marketing right, it will sell I think.

@NEStalgia Currently 1.41 million. Sold ~100k last quarter, ~250k the quarter before, and 1.06m on its release month.

And for me just the base game. I don't know how much the expansion will sell, but if there's a bundle later down the road that includes both the base and DLC games in one $60 package, it's definitely going to hit 2 million.

@Octane God of War is different in that it's been an established, popular franchise (edit: maybe not super mega popular) that helped sell PS2s and PS3s. Metroid doesn't have that luxury, only having a cult following compared to something like God of War. I expected it to do well just like in the PS2/PS3 days.

@Octane
Do you mean the whole series or just this last game? (God of War is one of my favorite franchises, btw)

Looking at last year's lineup compared to this year's, the main difference I see is a change in narrative.

Last year had plenty of support titles that people seem to be giving a lot more weight compared to this year's, especially Xenoblade 2. That's no bigger than Kirby, DKC, or Mario Tennis really (and the numbers back that up) but the internet sure likes to pretend it is.

Looking at the September-December lineup, last year's major titles were Pokken DX, FE Warriors, Super Mario Odyssey, Skyrim, and Xenoblade 2. This year is Xenoblade 2: Torna, Super Mario Party, Pokemon Let's Go, and Smash Ultimate.

I think there's plenty of people who were only interested in Mario Odyssey from last year, and let's not beat around the bush with that game: it's an amazing game but most people aren't going after every moon and were probably done with it after a couple days. You had other options from third parties, but the same is true of this year, and there's more new content too like Team Sonic Racing, Starlink, Mega Man 11, etc.

Again, I'd argue it's mostly a change in narrative.

@EvilLucario There's difference between doing ''well'' and doing ''great''. I mean, it outsold pretty much every other GOW game in its first month. Can Metroid Prime do that? Maybe. I can definitely see it becoming the best selling Metroid Prime game. A lot has changed since the GameCube days. It seems like Nintendo's marketing strategies have become more efficient too.

@rallydefault Just the last game compared to the previous entries. It's just the first example I could think of, I'm sure there are other games there were big turnarounds for their franchise. MH World maybe?

@EvilLucario If even a small fraction of the Switch's growing userbase is interested in a big, Nintendo-published JRPG, it should easily reach 2 million by the end of the gen.

@EvilLucario So far I can't think of Nintendo doing bundles on the same console (MK8D, PokkenDX etc being a cross console port) other than Rabbids (which followed Ubi's season pass model.) It would make too much sense to do that. But yeah, sales slowed a lot apparently but we'll see what happens in Q4 now that the expansion is out. It's kind of "old news" and something not hyped much other than people who follow RPGs, but I can see the game getting a nice bump with renewed shelf presence with the expansion.

@Octane I think GoW as a major success was always an expectation. It was a pretty mainstream popular, one of Sony's biggest, franchises, if not their very biggest at various times going back to PS2. I'd say it's the next tier under the Naughty Dog games, MLB: The Show, and maaaaybe Ratchet, but it's one of their top brands. Though this one certainly surpassed all expectations all the same. But yeah Metroid is pretty niche. It seems popular on a Nintendo forum and is kind of like "oh isn't that that Nintendo shooter or something?" elsewhere. I sometimes wonder if the Metroid brand would have gone further if it had stuck to a 2.5D format rather than becoming two series.

@IceClimbers That's why I scratch my head at most of the complaints about 2018. I mean, wasn't one of the hate back last year "the Switch has no games"? 2018 still has the equal amount of "big" games as last year, just replace Mario and Zelda with Pokemon and Smash Bros. You can even add in Mario Party to counterbalance Mario Kart, even if Mario Kart is infinitely more popular. 2018 is still fine, and since we're not the casual audience we don't have their viewpoint on how the Switch is doing.

@Octane I'd argue that God of War has been doing "great" since the beginning, only losing steam until God of War 2018.

@NEStalgia New Super Luigi U, the very first standalone DLC expansion Nintendo ever made, was eventually bundled with New Super Mario Bros U.

@EvilLucario Nintendo could do with more of those bundles in general. BotW + Expansion Pass, Splatoon 2 + Octo Expansion, etc.

@IceClimbers A large JRPG is never a "support" title. It's a niche title, which constrains it's sales, but is a major release, not a support title. By that standard Ni No Kuni II, FFXV, Octopath, Persona 5, SMT V, are all support titles, not major releases.

Pokken DX was support, FE Warriors a new Mousu game in the spirit of the super successful Hyrule Warriors, Odyssey a landmark entry of Nintendo's flagship brand, Skyrim...an old game, but the first handhled port of one of the most popualr games in the West in decades, and a major JRPG.

This year is an expansion pack for that same JRPG, a party game, a new Pokemon remake (but a divisive one for some), and a visually-not-so different ultimate/collection/anniversary edition of an iterative fighting game, albeit a very popular one (at least to the group that buys this hardware.)

More than the narrative has changed (Now, note, the lineup overall this year is actually better with all the third party games and Octopath in the summer. But we're talking really about Nintendo's output and more to the point their presentation of their output.)

@Octane Yeah I could see MP4 easily being the series' best seller to date just because of the hardware it's on and, unlike Wii, the audience that hardware attracts.

@EvilLucario I think most of the complaints come from not the actual lineup but from Nintendo bungling (as always) their communications with the Smash coverage. Add to that the fact that 1st party output this year is not as strong. Pokemon should be huge, but because it's the "small" game, the Yellow remake to tide us over until the new gen next year it's not as interesting as a brand new 3D Mario, and Smash is just an iterative fighting game, not as interesting as a formula reboot of a massive adventure/open world/rpg-ish game. No fighting game but Street Fighter and Smash really lights up any charts. It's a niche genre smaller than RPGs except SF that has an iconic brand and Smash that doubles as a casual party game so it reaches sales far beyond fighting niche. And Mario Party, you said it yourself, isn't as big or interesting as Kart, even if Kart is a port.

It's true that the first party stable is a pale comparison to last year's. But every conversation ignores the big 3rd party support with tons of RPGs, Starlink, etc this year that makes it huge. (Plus Nintendo really considers all titles from the year to be HOliday sellers, so they'll be including DQ:B, Bayonetta, etc as part of their Q4 roster.

@NEStalgia Well I mean, we're never going to consistently get something like 2017. 2017 in general was really good, and EVERYONE, not just Nintendo, ended up delivering less this year than last year. We went from a bajillion Sony exclusives last year to "just" (in quotes because they are high-budget exclusives at the end of the day) God of War, Detroit: Become Human, and Spider-Man. So sure, maybe 2018 isn't too impressive for now (even though there's been a lot for non-Wii U owners), but by the end, on the Nintendo side at least, it's going to make up for it with some quality stuff and every company has been cooling off in this year.

@NEStalgia @EvilLucario Nah, no way anyone would've predicted the current sales. 4-5 million lifetime would be in line with the rest of the franchise, not 5 million in its first month. We're looking at 10 million lifetime I think. If Metroid Prime can double its sales too, from 2-2.5 million to around 4-5, that pretty good. That would guarantee another entry for sure. Now all we have to do it hope it's any good!

@EvilLucario

@Octane I forgot about Shadow of the Colossus. Oops. Still though, I can count the amount of Sony exclusives last year on more than one hand compared to this year.

@EvilLucario True, though Sony's cooloff seems to be about setting the market for PS5 while Switch is fresh out of the gates. MS...well they don't have exclusives And they really seem bent on getting rid of generations (a good thing for me as a 1X owner if true.)

But you are right about the tale of two switches and why a Nintendo site (or even general gaming site) will have a very different feel, or "narrative" as IceClimbers put it, because for most of the general public this year has been amazing title they were denied for 2-4 years after amazing title one after another, while anyone on a Nintendo site likely owned a WiiU and was met with 6 months of nothing new followed by a thinner than last year holiday.

Though I'm not quite so generous as to not point some fingers at Nintendo for that schism their own making. Their pacing has definitely been off, and they no doubt planned on FE and/or Yoshi to be in the lineup this holiday when they started that release calendar in January. That made for some unfavorable optics, and capping it off with a "Smash is all we care about" image is a self inflicted wound only Nintendo could achieve

For the same reason a well marketed bad game outsells a poorly marketed amazing game 10:1, any negativity seen here and elsewhere still leads to Nintendo's own missteps.....the Switch has a fantastic (3rd party) lineup this year even with their own poorly paced 1st party release schedule, and while they could have easily used some marketing magic to spin that hype, they instead played it protectionist with 1st party titles and created an unnecessary negative image. Keeping the internet blindly singing praise isn't unimportant these days.

@Octane "We're looking at 10 million lifetime I think."
....but...but....single player games are dying.... (How's For Honor and The Crew 2 working out, Ubi? Up to t 5M yet?)

@EvilLucario I don't even remember the 2017 exclusives. I probably own them all. I just don't remember what they are.