Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

If anything, Zelda fits that bill more than Smash lol. People always herald Mario and Zelda as Nintendo's "biggest" franchises, ignoring that Zelda gets outsold by Pokemon, Mario Kart, and Smash.

Zelda's never been a top seller for Nintendo largely because it's never been hugely popular in Japan, and it's of somewhat limited interest compared to what is more "party friendly" like Smash and Kart, certainly. Zelda got a little bit of a boost selling on 2 platforms (WiiU was a disaster but almost 100% of WiiU owners were waiting for Zelda, on either platform.) OTOH, Zelda got a big boost this time by being heavily advertised and praised in the overall gaming press.

I'm not sure what to expect on it. It has a weird history. Selling 8th on 3DS is probably the most informative for Switch though. The Wii was the only of the home consoles that really performed particularly well...the rest were different shades of disaster and near disaster, so only a very loyal core really participated in GCN and WiiU. Wii was telling but it was also the only semi-core game even available other than Galaxy at the time it came out, while Switch has a more mature library to pick from. GCN, WiiU, and arguably N64 numbers aren't very relevant for today, but 3DS is, and Wii might be.

I mean I don't doubt it will sell well, but I'm also not convinced betting the farm on Smash almost entirely in terms of marketing is the smartest way to go (even Pokemon is getting sidelined in favor of Smash-everything...third parties are all but hidden, and we're getting more Smash focus...that just seems silly.)

@Grumblevolcano I'm sick to my eyeballs of Smash to the point it's making me hate Smash....but.....I wouldn't say no to an early demo

@ReaderRagfish Yeah, GCN had a little bit of popularity with kids compared to WiiU (go figure a purple cube looks more inviting to kids than a what can only be described as a rice cooker design. ) It sold more overall, but was also available for sale longer, and it's really hard to compare the WiiU with anything because while GCN was a failure overall, they company still had faith in it. With WiiU by the end of year 2 the company clearly was signaling they had no faith in it and were just looking to escape it. The early NX reveal sent the downward spiral in motion, they no longer advertised it even in Q4, E3 had the awkward "please ignore that we have no games, but we're transitioning to new hardware (for another year and a half)" and after Iwata's death they almost pretended the machine never existed from the start. So it's a little imbalanced to say GCN sold 21M in 5-6 years and WiiU sold 13M in 4....WiiU was only really a platform for 2 years, and then it spent 2 years on life support to not offend existing customers. GCN did have slightly more broad appeal than WiiU, but we're still talking about a platform that in 5-6 years sold about what Switch has sold in 17 months and will have utterly crushed by 20 months. It looks better than it was only because N64 didn't really do all that great either. Personally I still think WiiU was the better console of the two...it's a travesty that it ended as it did, not that I'm not grateful it led to Switch!

Yeah, BotW got a lot of one time boosts I don't expect to see in a Zelda game ever again in terms of sales. And I think a lot of people will be really disappointed by Metroid Prime 4 numbers....that series just doesn't move copies. Still, with Smash I feel like it often sells so well in spite of itself because every time a Smash comes around it's always either on a console with too few games overall, or at a point in the consoles life it has few other games around it. N64, Smash was new and unique as an idea. GCN was a pretty core-only fanbase in general. WiiU was a truly core-only fanbase (and Smash was the only big game coming at the time.) Wii was super popular and Smash released at the height.....but Smash, Galaxy, and Kart were basically the only core games coming out when it came out, and not long after that Wii entered its long slow decline of games. Switch....they've set up this year to replicate that by hiding other games, even Pokemon, and trying to push Smash Smash Smash, but Switch actually does have a much more diverse library at this point vying for money than those did. Unlike Wii that after Smash, the platform just kind of disintegrated into shovelware and little more, I think Switch will keep a momentum. Smash is evergreen so it's sales will be maintained somewhat, but I think there will be more big sellers to challenge it later in the cycle than Wii had (and a more diverse non-core-smash userbase than WiiU/GCN had.) 3DS is probably the most useful indicator. Sort-of-ish.

Looking back at 2014, the August Direct had a 14 minute fighter patch notes style segment similar to what happened at E3. So the August 2018 Direct will possibly be similar but without the fighter patch notes segment.

(the patch notes segment is 17:20 to 31:12)

@NEStalgia I don't expect Metroid Prime 4 to sell gangbusters. It's going to purely a Nintendo fan's Nintendo game. I only expect 3 million max. Even Metroid Prime only sold 2 million on the GameCube, and Prime 3 on the Wii sold LESS than Prime 1 on the GameCube. I hope to be proven wrong though, if it's another critical darling like BotW and Odyssey, then I expect maybe 4-5 million tops because then Nintendo will actually market the damn game.

And people wonder why Nintendo doesn't make Metroid games, because they aren't mega profitable. That series is the better example of a series the Internet hypes up but doesn't end up translating to sales. Which is a damn shame in my book.

I am amazed at the sudden "I dont like it so its bad" and "Its not as good as you say it is" crowd that popped up.

Then I remember this is the internet.

@ReaderRagfish Pretty sure the majority of hardcore fans bought both, rather than one or the other, like I did.

@Grumblevolcano sigh that clip just reminds me how little the new game is visually different from the old game....

@ReaderRagfish yeah the dual release makes the numbers hard to track. I get the impression there was a lot of double dipping between WiiU and 3DS, so the numbers might condense more than they appear at a glance as well. I somehow got stuck with a bunch of splatoon playmates that were hardcore (competitive) smashers, but every single one of them had both 3DS and WiiU versions ready to go on a moment's notice. I imagine most hardcore smashers had both copies. Heck, I have both copies and I'm not even a core smasher! Though I got the 3DS one because the board game on WiiU was an insult and I wanted at least some single player Smash fun

@EvilLucario The problem with Metroid Prime, I think is, it's kind of the wrong game on the wrong system. It's a remnant from the GCN legacy when Nintendo tried to go toe to toe with PS and compete for core gamers with a "grittier" FPS type game. But that strategy didn't work, and so by the time we got to Wii and they reversed course, we were stuck with a "core gamer" game locked to a Nintendo machine, and core gamers were clearly no longer Nintendo customers. It was a mismatch of audience. The people who wanted to play Prime didn't want to buy a Nintendo console just to play that game, and the people that bought the console weren't enthused with the type of game. So sales were meager.

We may see a bit of a change with 4 since Switch seems to be appealing to core gamers much more than any console from Nintendo since the SNES. But it still won't be a top 10 system seller. Well...maybe it will....depends on marketing.

@ReaderRagfish I think the top 5 will be:
1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
2. Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee
3. The first retail 2D Mario game on Switch
4. Pokemon 2019 if Let's Go series doesn't continue, next Let's Go game if Let's Go series does continue
5. Animal Crossing Switch

Speaking of sales, I hope Xenoblade 2 at least cracks 2 million by the end of the Switch's lifecycle.

@Grumblevolcano That's a believable list based on what we know/expect so far. I think we may get some unexpected surprises later on, possibly coming from third parties. (Heck maybe Octopath if this Japan pace continues )

@EvilLucario What's it up to now? Seems believable. Does that include Torna expansion sales or just base game?

@EvilLucario @NEStalgia I dunno, nobody expected God of War to be the success it currently is. You never know. If the game looks good, and they get the marketing right, it will sell I think.

@NEStalgia Currently 1.41 million. Sold ~100k last quarter, ~250k the quarter before, and 1.06m on its release month.

And for me just the base game. I don't know how much the expansion will sell, but if there's a bundle later down the road that includes both the base and DLC games in one $60 package, it's definitely going to hit 2 million.

@Octane God of War is different in that it's been an established, popular franchise (edit: maybe not super mega popular) that helped sell PS2s and PS3s. Metroid doesn't have that luxury, only having a cult following compared to something like God of War. I expected it to do well just like in the PS2/PS3 days.

@Octane
Do you mean the whole series or just this last game? (God of War is one of my favorite franchises, btw)

Looking at last year's lineup compared to this year's, the main difference I see is a change in narrative.

Last year had plenty of support titles that people seem to be giving a lot more weight compared to this year's, especially Xenoblade 2. That's no bigger than Kirby, DKC, or Mario Tennis really (and the numbers back that up) but the internet sure likes to pretend it is.

Looking at the September-December lineup, last year's major titles were Pokken DX, FE Warriors, Super Mario Odyssey, Skyrim, and Xenoblade 2. This year is Xenoblade 2: Torna, Super Mario Party, Pokemon Let's Go, and Smash Ultimate.

I think there's plenty of people who were only interested in Mario Odyssey from last year, and let's not beat around the bush with that game: it's an amazing game but most people aren't going after every moon and were probably done with it after a couple days. You had other options from third parties, but the same is true of this year, and there's more new content too like Team Sonic Racing, Starlink, Mega Man 11, etc.

Again, I'd argue it's mostly a change in narrative.

@EvilLucario There's difference between doing ''well'' and doing ''great''. I mean, it outsold pretty much every other GOW game in its first month. Can Metroid Prime do that? Maybe. I can definitely see it becoming the best selling Metroid Prime game. A lot has changed since the GameCube days. It seems like Nintendo's marketing strategies have become more efficient too.

@rallydefault Just the last game compared to the previous entries. It's just the first example I could think of, I'm sure there are other games there were big turnarounds for their franchise. MH World maybe?

@EvilLucario If even a small fraction of the Switch's growing userbase is interested in a big, Nintendo-published JRPG, it should easily reach 2 million by the end of the gen.

@EvilLucario So far I can't think of Nintendo doing bundles on the same console (MK8D, PokkenDX etc being a cross console port) other than Rabbids (which followed Ubi's season pass model.) It would make too much sense to do that. But yeah, sales slowed a lot apparently but we'll see what happens in Q4 now that the expansion is out. It's kind of "old news" and something not hyped much other than people who follow RPGs, but I can see the game getting a nice bump with renewed shelf presence with the expansion.

@Octane I think GoW as a major success was always an expectation. It was a pretty mainstream popular, one of Sony's biggest, franchises, if not their very biggest at various times going back to PS2. I'd say it's the next tier under the Naughty Dog games, MLB: The Show, and maaaaybe Ratchet, but it's one of their top brands. Though this one certainly surpassed all expectations all the same. But yeah Metroid is pretty niche. It seems popular on a Nintendo forum and is kind of like "oh isn't that that Nintendo shooter or something?" elsewhere. I sometimes wonder if the Metroid brand would have gone further if it had stuck to a 2.5D format rather than becoming two series.

@IceClimbers That's why I scratch my head at most of the complaints about 2018. I mean, wasn't one of the hate back last year "the Switch has no games"? 2018 still has the equal amount of "big" games as last year, just replace Mario and Zelda with Pokemon and Smash Bros. You can even add in Mario Party to counterbalance Mario Kart, even if Mario Kart is infinitely more popular. 2018 is still fine, and since we're not the casual audience we don't have their viewpoint on how the Switch is doing.

@Octane I'd argue that God of War has been doing "great" since the beginning, only losing steam until God of War 2018.

@NEStalgia New Super Luigi U, the very first standalone DLC expansion Nintendo ever made, was eventually bundled with New Super Mario Bros U.