How many copies do we think this will sell, and how many 3D All Stars? I think both will hit around 10 million lifetime (which would probably make 3D All Stars one of the most profitable things they've ever sold, given that it took almost nothing for them to make)
@rockodoodle Because they don't care. This is the company that's making you buy games multiple times over, whereas the competition (Microsoft for example) offers you your old games for free. Even next gen is supported by most companies with free updates for current gen games. They do what Nintendon't.
You make it sound like they're doing it out of charity. The backwards compatibility was literally the thing that made me buy an Xbox One.
@Dezzy, the thing that'll keep All Stars from hitting 10 mil is it's limited status (it'd have to achieve it in a 6 month period, and with physical copies being particularly limited I'd assume).
No idea about 3D World though. Do we know how close NSMBU DX is to 10 mil? While gamers on forums tend to decry the New games, I think they tend to outsell the 3D entries on the same platform (maybe not the case on Switch, as it was a port, but it could be a good barometer for how well 3D World might do).
@RR529 Generally speaking, yes, the NSMB series are copy-and-paste, but as simple platformers I think they're pretty fun. Especially Wii. Not many people played the Wii U, so I assume not many people played 3D World. I think the sales will be somewhere at the 10 Mil mark or below.
@Dezzy Don't get me wrong, it's a selling point, but one that benefits the user as well.
I always compare it to this. Publishers want to make money, they can do that by squeezing every last penny out of you with MTX (the average EA game), or they can be incredibly generous which results in a good worth of mouth (e.g. CDPR). Both are completely valid strategies to make a lot of money, but one also benefits me, and the other one doesn't.
I always compare it to this. Publishers want to make money, they can do that by squeezing every last penny out of you with MTX (the average EA game), or they can be incredibly generous which results in a good worth of mouth (e.g. CDPR). Both are completely valid strategies to make a lot of money, but one also benefits me, and the other one doesn't.
I agree with the analysis, but I don't think it's necessarily true that one approach benefits you but the other doesn't.
The massive downside of the CDPR approach (which also includes Nintendo and Rockstar and a few other devs), is that it takes absolutely ages to produce a game. Cyberpunk will have taken like 8 years by the time it releases. Breath of the Wild took over 5 years. They've struggled to make a sequel (which will almost definitely be reusing a lot of assets and the same engine) in 4 years. A sequel like that used to take like 2 years max.
Good things never just happen for free. There's always a trade off somewhere. It's just a question of what tradeoff you're willing to pay for, in either time or money, or annoyance. CDPR is charging you the same in money, but more in time. EA is charging you less in time, but more in annoyance.
@Dezzy, the thing that'll keep All Stars from hitting 10 mil is it's limited status (it'd have to achieve it in a 6 month period, and with physical copies being particularly limited I'd assume).
No idea about 3D World though. Do we know how close NSMBU DX is to 10 mil? While gamers on forums tend to decry the New games, I think they tend to outsell the 3D entries on the same platform (maybe not the case on Switch, as it was a port, but it could be a good barometer for how well 3D World might do).
My guess is that 3d World will sell a few million less than Odyssey, if for no other reason, most people are not going to buy this twice.
@rockodoodle
I don't know about that. If 3D World's online multiplayer works well, I think it has the potential of becoming even more successful than Odyssey.
I could see 3D World selling approximately 10-15 million, more than its original launch but less than Odyssey. 3D World will definitely benefit from the higher install base, Bowser's Fury, and online multiplayer, but it won't outsell Odyssey because Odyssey is a new, original game that's been out since the Switch's launch year.
@Dezzy I disagree. Yes, their games take a long time to make, but Cyberpunk 2077 will probably be beyond the scope of any game that EA or Activision puts out. And a lot of Ubisoft's games are pretty much the same with a different skin. It's all the same engine, same underlying mechanics, etc. It's easy to pump out those games.
That has nothing to do with how they charge you for it however. In fact, you can even argue that it should be the opposite, you should expect the more ambitious games to find ways to charge you through MTX.
Rockstar used to make a ton of games, until they discovered GTA Online made them billions without doing anything, so they've been resting on the laurels so to speak. And GTA contains plenty of MTX as well.
@Dezzy Here are some of the sales statistics for these games:
Mario 64: 11.91 million
Sunshine: 6.28 million
Galaxy: 12.80 million
NSMBU: 5.80 million
3D World: 5.84 million
Odyssey: 18.06 million
NSMBUD: 7.44 million
3D World actually outsold NSMBU by 40,000 copies, so 3D World + Bowser's Fury should at least hit 8-9 million. I was just sort of giving a vague estimate before, but 10-15 million actually sounds about right with these statistics.
As for 3D All Stars, I think it'll also hit the 10 million mark, but less than 3D World. The limited run and lack of improvements are probably going to hurt it.
But the reason they don't need to charge more or put MTX into Cyberpunk is specifically because it's projected to sell an incredibly high number of copies. And in order to sell that high number of copies you either need to get really lucky (e.g Animal Crossing) or you need an absolutely massive budget and long development time. That's the cost for it. But it wouldn't necessarily be good if every developer did that. Think how few AAA games there would be if they all took 8 years to make!
In all honesty the teaser of Bowser's fury looked very moody and intriguing. But I can't imagine it being big enough for me to double dip. I am not a fan of buying games twice, especially those games I already played so short ago (on the Wii u). I might make a exception for the 3d allstars, since its nice to have 3 3d Mario's on one cart. And its a long time ago I played Mario64 for the last time, and my n64 analogue stick has become very stiff. Hopefully my Switch analogue stick won't drift to much during playing though.
But back to Bowser's fury. I think those are extra hard levels. Or one big world with different parts. I mean, I do see different gates and stuff like that.
@Octane the MTX approach (which I actively dislike) does have major consumer advantages. The most important two are extra budget (usually blown on graphics) and that it results in games with a much cheaper badge price much sooner.
The publisher needs to get the game before as many people as possible or they can’t sell MTX. Many EA or Ubisoft games can be had for next to nothing after 6 months. Games with substantial free DLC tend to retain a higher shelf price for longer.
How many of Shovel Knights contemporaries have never been below £5?
I think 3D World will find a good audience on Switch. Personally I rate it very highly - it’s definitely better than 64 and Sunshine and I think it’s especially well suited to the Switch because of the multiplayer aspect.
It won’t sell Odyssey numbers though or anything close.
They have monopoly control over the license though don't they? That's not really something you could generalize to other genres. I imagine it costs them a hell of a lot too, especially given that FIFA could probably increase those fees every few years and EA will still pay it.
@Dezzy I suppose the bright side for EA is that FIFA are well know for being a straight dealing, fair organisation who are motivated entirely by the good of the game and not really interested in money. They’d never even dream of screwing over a long term partner under any circumstances.
They’ve probably never even of the word “extortion” in Zurich.
@Bolt_Strike dang, I totaly thought 3D world did better then that.
I won’t be getting either of them honestly. I love 3D World, but I’m not wasting 60$ just to play it again. I’ll have to see what Bowser’s Fury is before even considering it. And I have all of the 3D All-Stars games, and seeing as how Nintendo didn’t even bother to fully update the graphics seems like a waste of my money.
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