@GrailUK Early 2024 seems unlikely to me as well, but sometime during 2024 seems plausible, although not guaranteed. As for Mario Kart 9, it wouldn't shock me if they essentially had that ready and waiting to release after a sufficient pause after the booster pass for MK8 finishes. A new 3D Mario could certainly be near existence too. As for Zelda, they could always advertise TotK DLC for both systems and also a new 2D Zelda (maybe only for the new console, depending on what new gimmick is involved although for 2D Zelda I wouldn't mind if the 'gimmick' was just stunning artistic graphics). No clue about Splatoon, but assuming Splatoon 3 still works on the new console, they could always focus on a new Smash game or fill in the gap with something like ARMS 2.
As for 'spec chasing', I couldn't care less about most PS5-type games and I play a ton of retro-style games, but even I am feeling Switch is getting long in the tooth and could do a bit more with their ports and even a couple of their exclusives if they had more power.
@FishyS@GrailUK I'm working under the (very safe?) assumption that the next new 3D Zelda is 2028 - 2031, therefore I have convinced myself that we'll get full Metroid Prime style remasters of WindWaker and Twilight Princess to fill the gap until 2028-2031...imagine full on redone graphics for those two Zelda games with DLSS etc - it could be epic! Throw in a new 2D game + a remaster of A Link Between Worlds and we could have some great Zelda content on the the "Switch 2"...
@MarioBrickLayer that’s a lot of work to kill time for a Zelda game that would take even more work. Let’s be honest, Wind Waker and Twilight Princess absolutely don’t need remasters in Prime fashion at least. Not yet. Both games have aged quite well (not saying Prime 1 hadn’t) and aren’t in need of remasters. HD ports are easier and they get the games on the new system easier and faster. Remember, Prime 1 remastered took years and Retro Studios called upon lots and lots and lots of other smaller studios to help them. Nintendo would be better off investing remaster/remake time into Zelda games that have been somewhat forgotten and tougher to access. Both Ocarina and Majora’s Mask got remastered for 3DS, so what’s the point. If Link’s Awakening got a remake, it’s only natural that the next games in line should be Oracle of ages/seasons realistically. Both are fellow gameboy titles that admittedly don’t look that great today. Whereas both WW and TP look quite nice even today. Their respective art styles are to thank for that. HD for those two, potential remakes for Ages/Seasons. That can fill the gap of time between the next instalment, because that’s going to take well over half a decade for sure.
@TheBigBlue It's all speculation, so you might be right, but I don't think so. Is not clear how long the Prime Remaster took, it was rumoured for a long time, but we don't know when work started and finished.
Ages/Seasons could end up on NSO, it's more likely we'll see DS games on NSO than Gamecube. There is a big audience who haven't played these games plus remasters of the Oracle games would not sell anywhere near the same as WindWaker and Twilight Princess.
We know the Oracle games are coming to NSO and Minish Cap came to NSO in February so if remakes were to happen they'd be years away. So it feels like we'd see something like:
2024 - ALBW port/remaster to same extent as what's happening for Luigi's Mansion 2)
2025 - Spinoff
2026 - WWHD/TPHD (the normal Wii U port treatment)
@GrailUK
Several things make me think it's the first half of next year:
1. Their forecasted sales for Switch are dropping. Still high but well and truly in the decline side of that bell curve. They're projecting hardware sales to be down by ~20% this year, 15mill units to be at 140mill units by next March. And while their last Direct was definitely solid I don't think there are any "turn the ship around" titles on the horizon. They'll want to have something to show investors for their next fiscal year report
2. We've known for a while this hardware exists but we're getting to the point now where third parties are actively talking about it. Publicly. And Nintendo is answering questions about it when asked with slightly less PR heavy than usual answers. With talk about how to handle supply, account transitions and so on. The next piece of hardware is becoming less theoretical by the day
3. Supply constraints have eased. If you look at prices of components in the PC space you can kinda see this already. There are obviously some companies still trying to pretend the environment hasn't changed (coughnvidiacough) but we're starting to see the prices of RAM, flash, CPUs and the like really start to come down. Inflation is biting globally for sure but electronics kinda live in opposite land
4. The early year launch worked for the Switch. I know I like to say on here that we can't look at past patterns to predict what will happen next but still. It did work for Switch. I think what would kinda make sense would be like a January reveal with a May release. Because as soon as you announce you create a bit of a dead-zone for the Switch and that Jan-Mar period is kinda dead anyways
5. The hardware is old and, to be blunt, on the raw spec kinda bad value for the hardware itself. Of course the software sells the hardware but the hardware does also sell software. The longer they drag it out the more attractive the competition becomes. I mean we can point to the install base being huge all we want but you do realise that the DS had an install base of 140mill and sold 20mill pieces of hardware in its last year right? The best selling systems of all time, almost by definition, were superseded with huge install bases. That's.... kinda how that works....
@Grumblevolcano I think we half agree, my view is something like this:-
2024 - (Switch 2 Launch/year 1 Title) - WW or TP - Full on remastered that demonstrates power of the "Switch 2"
2025 - ALBW port/remaster
2026 - Warriors 2 / another spin off
2027 - WW or TP remaster (whichever isn't a launch/year 1 title)
2028 - Zelda "Maker" / another spin off
2029/2030 - BotW 3
@skywake All great points, mate. I'll reply to each (as long as you don't read like I'm angry or anything lol! I have obviously no idea when a Switch 2 will launch!)
1. Sales are down, but when they are down from unusual sales during lockdown, are they down relative to traditional projections? 20% is a big number, but coming down from an unusually high bar is always going to be skewed. And unfortunately, Nintendo have a better idea than either of us here. Sales data is out of date the moment it's printed. The Switch has been the biggest selling console in all terrortories recently (thanks to Mario Movie and Zelda.) A console in it's 7th year isn't looking to become the next big thing (been there and done that) it's simply trying to keep the decline as flat as possible and to be honest, I don't see how a 7 year old console could be doing any better! As for turn the ship around moments in the Direct, this late in the lifecycle, it's not really about growth but more about lessening the decline. The Switch has been the best selling console recently accross all terrortories. 2D Mario is going to do wonders (pardon the pun) for the life cycle. I already know families that have pre-ordered Mario RPG!
At somepoint there is a crossover between high softwate sales and low console sales with high console sales and low software sales (old to new.) And I don't know enough about Nintendo's bottom line to know when that is but it feels like we aren't there yet. Not for a company as prolific as Nintendo are.
2. It's still only theoretical discussion and not definitive. But again, it shows movement
3. So when we see a price drop, then I think people's definition of 'soon' will be much nearer mine. (That or I need to buy a new dictionary!)
4. Announcing the Switch before Christmas kept them in the pubic's eye (just having the Wii U would have been embarrassing. This was a suitable diversion.) Releasing it early in the year was made easier because the Wii U's time of death had just been noted. They literally had nothing to lose. Releasing a console so soon after Christmas would leave sour grapes for folk who spent money on the Switch. Remember, folk are skint after Christmas. Now I will concede, Nintendo shouldn't really put too much stock in folk buying a Switch in year 7. They are hardly folk expected to buy a Switch 2 day one! So an early release might happen, but I'm erring towards a more conventional time frame. Again, you could be right (I'm usually wrong lol.)
5. I'm going to wait and see the sales performance of Mario Wonder. If (and it will tbh) it sells huge numbers, then would more powah have helped that game? Or have Nintendo already got hardware that lets them create what they want at the moment. Their new hardware will be more about their gameplay ideas not pretty effects and ray tracing. The spec bump is just a given, but not the selling point. It wasn't for Switch and it won't be for the next console (at a guess.) I'm not playing down third party AAA here, it's simply not letting the tail wag the dog is all.
Full transparacy, I hope you are right lol. I want one! Can't wait. But I've been a Nintendo fan long enough to realise it's best to let them go at their own pace, when things are ready. Because if we expect something...we aren't getting it (at this point, I'm convinced they do it on purpose.)
@skywake@GrailUK
These are all good points, on both sides. I feel like for one to make a genuinely educated assessment, they must be able to present the argument from both sides (which they teach in debating- you should be able to articulate the opposing view as well as they can without strawmans or intentionally undermining their argument). And I think you guys have demonstrated that.
Why Switch 2 releases spring 2024
sales declining- will be difficult to even hit 15m by March 2024.
Assuming they waited another year, the sales for that FY could potentially dip into single digit millions
Allowing sales to dip that low could see lost momentum going into next gen, which is always harder to regain than lose
Switch released in spring
3DS also released in spring
console will be 7 years old by spring 2024
not one single dated game for 2024, and of the two known 2024 releases, one is a 3DS remaster and the other a more casual Peach title
Yet 2023 is a blowout year with Fire Emblem, Metroid Prime, Kirby, Advance Wars, Zelda, Pikmin, Mario RPG, WarioWare, 2D Mario and several notable 3rd party titles
Assuming Nintendo is learning from past failed transitions and employing a strategy closer to what Sony did with PS4>PS5, we would expect a blowout final year to garner as much momentum as possible into the transition, with a steep falloff in titles during release year. Lineup seems to reflect this
If Switch 2 wasn't releasing spring 2024, you would expect Nintendo to have released another variant in 2023, following the 2 year pattern (2017- Switch, 2019- Lite, 2021- OLED, 2023- Lite OLED?). But they didn't. Stands to reason they wouldn't if next Switch is around the corner
Why Switch 2 doesn't release spring 2024
Switch is still selling 15 million in its 7th year. There's too much money on the table software-wise to abandon it now when games are selling better than ever. Now is when the money machine prints fastest.
Waiting for PS5/XSX sales and hype to die down a bit more would be strategic to ensure consumers opt for Switch 2 instead
Zelda just released. By dropping Switch 2 in spring 2024, it ensures we don't get a new Zelda until at least past the midpoint of next gen, and they may want a new Zelda earlier to drive sales
Switch still has yet to spend the Ace up it's sleeve... the price cut. If Switch dropped price $50 across the board after Christmas, that could potentially sustain another 15 million selling year
By waiting until spring 2025, they costs of components would come down even more
Too many big releases that could have been spent on bolstering Switch 2 launch year lineup. This is of course assuming Nintendo isn't opting for the blowout year momentum push.
Consider and weigh both sides. There really is an argument for both.
Psalms 22:16 (1,000 yrs before Christ)
They pierced My hands and feet
Isaiah 53:5 (700 yrs before Christ)
He was pierced for our transgressions
@JaxonH I do reckon the third party support for Switch 2 will be strong out of the gate. I'm sure many a CEO are echoing Bobby Kotick's testimonial from the FTC case and thinking it was a bad decision to not put games on Switch! And NVidia will be chomping at the bit for their next chip orders lol. Nintendo are in a greatposition and both the above scenarios are equally valid. Soooo...all I can wish is that it is sooner than later.
@NinChocolate
I'd say it definitely has some merit. But with a huge asterisks.
Obviously no platform manufacturer waits until their current system is selling zero units to release a new console. That would take 30 years. As long as a console remains for sale, it'll never truly reach 0. Even if it's just 10-20k per year.
The question then becomes, where does the line get drawn. How much is "too much" to hold off? 15 mil? 10 mil? 5 mil? Thats a question that none of us can answer, and the answer changes every time based on risk assessment of the particular situation. I do think we can reasonably assume less than 5 mil is for sure past the line, and 15 mil is probably not. Keep in mind we're talking projected sales of keeping the system on the market another year. Switch will do 15 mil this year ending spring 2024. But what are their projected sales for keeping it around another year to 2025? And will those projected sales be below the threshold they're comfortable with, accounting for revenue, momentum, brand mindshare, etc? Hard to say.
@GrailUK
For sure. Just look at how much 3rd party support Switch has received despite A) coming off the back of the Wii U, a dumpster fire of a generation that cost Nintendo the faith and confidence of virtually every meaningful 3rd party studio, and B) being significantly less powerful than what most 3rd party developers are capable of utilizing
Even then, we got 7 Assassin's Creed games, 7 Resident Evil games, 3 Sniper Elite games, 2 modern Doom games and a Wolfenstein, 2 Diablo games, 3 Borderlands games, 3 Monster Hunter games, 2 Saint's Row games, 2 Metro games, Outer Worlds, every NBA 2k and FIFA, The Show, 3 Persona games, crap ton of Final Fantasy, Nier Automata, probably another 200 quality franchises spanning everything from Valkyria Chronicles to Portal to Crysis to Trails to Dying Light to Aliens to GTA to XCOM and Civilization to Witcher to Mortal Kombat, etc etc etc etc etc
Not all of them were high quality Switch version, a few were downright terrible, but many (if not most) ranged from decent to spectacular. Point being, even after Wii U, and even despite the power of the system, devs were putting all these games on Switch.
Just imagine what it's gonna be like on the next go around. Instead of coming off Wii U where the entire industry is afraid to lose money on the next Nintendo system, we're coming off Switch, the soon-to-be highest selling video game console of all time. And instead of PS3/360 level power, we're dealing with PS4/X1 level power.
Orders of magnitude more confidence and willingness and eager desire to develop for the next hottest system. And orders of magnitude more capable hardware that instills developer confidence their games can run, and do so in a satisfactory manner. It's gonna be a paradigm shift. People aren't ready for what's coming.
Psalms 22:16 (1,000 yrs before Christ)
They pierced My hands and feet
Isaiah 53:5 (700 yrs before Christ)
He was pierced for our transgressions
@GrailUK
Definitely not reading your post as an angry reply and it's certainly not my internal monologue when I post on here. I think most of your points are decent but there are a few I'm not so convinced about
Firstly, the sales were down 20% between their projected sales for 2023 i.e. March 2023 to March 2024 and their actual sales numbers for 2022. Note their 2023 projection would include expectations for TotK and Wonder. They were also down 20% between 2022 and 2021 and between 2020 and 2021. I'm not sure that the decline from 2021 -> 2023 can entirely be put down to "coming down from the COVID peak". Also their forecast last year overestimated sales for 2022, clearly they thought the OLED SKU was going to change the equation more than it did. If this trend continues? 2024 they would drop to 12mill units sold
Also I did sneak this point in my post but I probably didn't paint it as black and white as I probably could have. This year on their projection the Switch will sell 15mill units to end in March next year on an install base of 140mill. The DS sold 20mill units in 2010 to finish the year with an install base on 140mill units. Nintendo announced the 3DS in March 2010, showed it off at E3 2010 and launched in Feb/Mar 2011.
Now again, I'm not a fan of using "precedent" to try and predict these things at all. But we have certainly seen this movie before. Sales peak, new SKU as soon as the sales decline starts to hit then new hardware before sales get a chance to dip to half of their peak
Mostly, I just don't think they'll want to do their EOFY report next March and come out to say "Switch sales will be half of what they were in 2020 for 2024 and we have nothing to say about future plans at this time". I think they'll want to point to the announcement trailer at least and say this is what we intend to do this year. Also, I don't think they announce this thing and wait like a year to release it. So for both of those things to happen there's a VERY small window here
Basically, sales are in a decline, we have the actual figures to show this it isn't just a theoretical discussion. The trend would suggest that they'll probably be sitting at around 12mill units sold in 2024. I don't think they would want to show that to investors without having a plan to show. Which means they kinda have to announce new hardware before March 2024. And with Nintendo's current strategy when it comes to announce -> release? There would be less than 6 months between announcement and release
Which IMO leaves us with two windows:
Announcement window: September 2023 through to April 2024
Release window: March 2024 through to October 2024
Could it be in the second half of next year? Definitely, I have to concede that point. But I would say the majority of that bell curve sits in early 2024. And I don't think 2025 is at all on the table. Then again, if you go to the start of this thread I was talking about how Nintendo did need a mid-gen refresh in 2021. Which we did get, but not in a way that I thought made sense. So I could well be wrong again
Oh, and I don't think they're at all concerned about burning people who buy the Switch just before the reveal. Nor should they be. As you said people buying into Switch this late in the cycle are almost by definition not early adopters, they're not the target market for new hardware anyways. Also you have to make that call at some point. Also the fact that Super Mario Wonder wouldn't have taken advantage of the additional power? I mean sure, of course. And that fact makes it a perfect release for the tail end of a console cycle
I think the whole "Nintendo's always a generation behind" thing that started with the Wii makes the concept of a Switch 2 rather ominous. PS2/Xbox compares to the Wii, PS3/360 compares to Wii U/Switch and so PS4/XB1 compares to Switch 2.
Note here I'm talking about the platforms as a whole. PS2/Xbox were the early days of online multiplayer and digital of which Wii was the same for Nintendo. PS3/360 brought stuff like subscriptions, DLC and digital only games into the mainstream of which Wii U/Switch was the same for Nintendo.
PS4/XB1 was the rise of the big problems of modern gaming. Free to play on console, microtransactions (loot boxes and then the microtransactions store + battle pass combo), live service as a whole, platform holders becoming over-reliant on CoD, etc.
This is not meant to be an exhaustive list but I hope it puts across my point well. My concern is Nintendo will go all out with those bad PS4/XB1 features with Switch 2. Stuff like Nintendo killing off the Splatoon franchise if Microsoft's acquisition of Activision goes through, if MK9 exists it being riddled with microtransactions like Tour, etc.
I think the whole "Nintendo's always a generation behind" thing that started with the Wii makes the concept of a Switch 2 rather ominous. PS2/Xbox compares to the Wii, PS3/360 compares to Wii U/Switch and so PS4/XB1 compares to Switch 2.
Note here I'm talking about the platforms as a whole. PS2/Xbox were the early days of online multiplayer and digital of which Wii was the same for Nintendo. PS3/360 brought stuff like subscriptions, DLC and digital only games into the mainstream of which Wii U/Switch was the same for Nintendo.
PS4/XB1 was the rise of the big problems of modern gaming. Free to play on console, microtransactions (loot boxes and then the microtransactions store + battle pass combo), live service as a whole, platform holders becoming over-reliant on CoD, etc.
This is not meant to be an exhaustive list but I hope it puts across my point well. My concern is Nintendo will go all out with those bad PS4/XB1 features with Switch 2. Stuff like Nintendo killing off the Splatoon franchise if Microsoft's acquisition of Activision goes through, if MK9 exists it being riddled with microtransactions like Tour, etc.
1 thing i would love for Nintendo to Copy from Sony and Xbox is TWITCH ONLINE BROADCASTING YOUR GAMEPLAY So i Can Stream myself playing Ocarina of time or the Gameboy Advance games and the New games too like Totk
i enjoy Mario Kart Double Dash and Cups of Tea !!!!
Nintendo may be one generation behind in pure 'processing power' but they are definitely not following along in other ways. I feel like they tend to be one generation ahead in certain types of innovation which gets copied later. Also, they are occasionally like 3 generations behind ( cough mm2 multiplayer like it's 1999). Basically, they're just on a different path and I'm (mostly) happy if they stay that way.
I think there is zero chance they would add microtransactions to MK9 or that they would rely less on their own exclusives just because they e.g. got access to CoD.
@FishyS Relying less on exclusives makes less and less sense in the console market every day. Nintendo knows this, Sony knows this and (even when they say the opposite) Microsoft knows this. Sony is now in trouble because one of their most popular games was a third party and was recently bought by a direct competitor. And Microsoft bought that publisher because of that (alongside other things like mobile expansion but don't tell me that getting the publisher that owns the series that is number one in sales in NA every year didn't entice them).
Besides, Nintendo strongests asset is their original IPs. Nintendo owns Mario, Zelda, a big chunk of Pokemon and plety of smaller IPs that are riped for media expansion. They would be foolish to ignore that just because CoD could be in their consoles again.
Also, I hope Nintendo stays clear of microtransactions for premium games, hopefully their kid friendly image helps in avoiding that. The fact that it got so normalized for full price games like Diablo 4 (or even the new Street Fighter) to have MTX to the point that there are plenty of people defending it online is sad. Like, I remember in the Diablo subreddit people making fun of "poor people" that didn't pay extra for early access to the game and I... wow...
Speaking of bell curves, I took the FY sales data for Switch in the first 6 years, plus the FY7 projection of 15m, and used as calibrators to best-fit a bell curve over the data set, and use to predict future sales trends. This of course depends on the current trend not changing. A price cut would change the trend, as would a next gen announcement/release. This is purely for estimating FY sales if Nintendo continued with the status quo.
Don't expect it to be perfect. True sales histograms are typically skewed- a log-normal or Weibull distribution is probably more appropriate. But the site I used didn't offer those options. We work with what we've got.
This does seem to indicate that Switch could break the PS2 record provided a Switch 2 announcement doesn't break the sales trend. Estimated 19 million total for the next 3 Fiscal Years ending March 2027, at which point the system would be dead, run through the natural course of its lifespan. However. A price cut could counter a next gen announcement. Not sure where the threshold lies for next gen announcement though, where before that point even a price cut couldn't get it past 158m, but after that point it could.
Psalms 22:16 (1,000 yrs before Christ)
They pierced My hands and feet
Isaiah 53:5 (700 yrs before Christ)
He was pierced for our transgressions
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