Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

@Professor_Plumber Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Encore (Maybe one new character and a stage, not a third party though, and not an original character maybe an echo fighter of someone).

@FishyS Maybe you have to match speed with rivals so that you can have rpg dialog exchanges during laps?

Edit - erm...actully, I might be on to something here...

@Owl1 Yep pretty much

@GrailUK Woah, you may be onto something there!

@Professor_Plumber I'm calling it, its King Boo, he's a Donkey Kong echo...

@Owl1 They just need to add WaLuigi and it will sell 10 million again lol. I'd like a trailer of him not actually getting invited, but forging his own invite and just being there hahaha.

@Bolt_Strike I fully agree with what you said. I’m honestly surprised Nintendo dragged MK8 as long as they have, for 9 years after the original release now. But Nintendo has to bite the bullet and make a new one eventually, which I have no doubt they are doing as we speak. The whole adding every single MK track ever made to MK8 is kind of pointless. Nintendo can make Mario Kart games forever, why bother making a Mario Kart that can never be topped instead of making a new one with new stuff in it? Shifting gears here, porting Ultimate does makes sense instead of MK8 a hundred times more, as it is very clear Sakurai put his all into Smash Ultimate. It truly is the franchise’s final form, the grand finale. Sakurai is on the verge of retirement, as you said. Unless Nintendo finds someone who won’t get blasted by the fan base (because we wont accept someone other than Sakurai directing Smash Bros, with the new director potentially ruining everything, let’s be real here) to take the reigns of the series, Ultimate is most likely the final Smash Brothers game.

@Owl1 That would be something...

But I like @GrailUK's idea for Waluigi lol

Too perfect!

@TheBigBlue I don't agree that Smash is done fore good, it sells too well for them to end it. But I do think Ultimate is Sakurai's last game and at the very least we're not getting a new, original Smash game next gen. Even if they decide to continue Smash without Sakurai, they're probably going to take some time to figure out what a post-Sakurai Smash game would look like, so Smash feels like a prime candidate for an IP that skips the Switch 2 (or more accurately, doesn't get a new, original entry for the Switch 2).

@Bolt_Strike That's always a possibility. Nntendo rely less on the thought process of 'we need to make a Smash game' and more on the 'we have this idea for a game, will it suit the Smash ip.'

This

A darkened room.

The only light is coming from a fireplace to one side and a television in the middle, mostly obscured by the silhouette of a lone figure sitting hunched in front of the t.v.

A few somewhat familiar snorts of derision can be heard.

The camera shifts over the figure, who happens to be wearing a cap. The t.v. comes into audio and visual focus and we see the Smash Ultimate trailer is playing.

As the 'Everyone is here!' bombshell reverberates around the room, the trailer is rewound. Over and over again the 'Everyone is here!' announcement is played back. The tension is mounting.

Finally the camera shifts to a first person view of the lone figure. Purple sleeves can be seen. They're staring down at a copy of Smash Ultimate, grip tightening.

A primal roar of despair erupts and the camera shifts back. We see Waluigi doing his own version of the Darth Vader 'Noooo' before he hurls the copy of Smash Ultimate into the fire.

The case and cover art melts away, leaving the cartridge. As the heat builds, the cartridge begins to shuffle and shake. Familiar smash sound effects and characters begin to pour out in an animated death scene to end all death scenes.

As the final death throes play out, the fire begins to peter out too. As it fades we see the Smash logo glowing bright. But as time goes on, the logo begins to fade. Final iconic sounds and music can be heard fading into eternity.

The logo's glow dies, leaving just a husk. Waluigi prods the husk with his pointy shoe, causing it to crumble into ashes.

Super Smash Bros.... is dead.

Revenge exacted, Waluigi looks ponderous. He turns off the t.v. He's still dejected. His victory is hollow. After one final sigh, Waluigi walks away. It is done.

In the silence that follows, the seconds pass by. The camera scans the room.

Then there's a familiar power-up type sound effect. The camera shifts to the ashes in the fireplace.

We hear a wind building from somewhere. Suddenly the ashes are blown away, revealing a Switch 2 game case and cover art, bearing the title...

NEW Super Smash Bros.

@skywake A large proportion of the Switches audience are more casual gamers, many of which bought into the eco system during lockdown. Realistically the attachment rate from that market is going to be relatively small - especially if the new system is still unable to handle third party games day and date with the competition.

The Switch also has a failrly low online subscription attachment relative to the number of consoles sold.
(Just grabbed these figuers after a quick search as an example, far to early to dig into market research for a forum post): around 125 million units sold with 36 million active NSO subs. Which shows a discrepancy of nearly 80 million people that don't fully engage in the Switch ecosystem - are these people who don't subscribe likely to upgrade to another Switch?

There is then third party support if Nintendo continue with the handheld model. How many of the multiplatform games shown at the Sony Showcase are coming to Switch?
If the next Nintendo console isn't comparable how many third party devs are going to bother downgrading to put games on another Switch? - we are already seeing massive delays, (hogwarts legacy being a recent example) imagine how long these will be when devs finally move fully to current gen consoles.

It's going to be an intersection reveal for the new System whichever way it goes.

I don't know why people are so obsessed with the idea of Mario Kart 9. I genuinely couldn't think of a less boring idea. I mean sure, probably going to happen, it's quite literally Nintendo's third best selling franchise behind Pokemon and Super Mario. Probably second if you split 2D and 3D Mario out. So yeah, fairly safe bet that they're going to do something with it again

But as a fan of the series? eh.... I don't know. Feels like we're kinda hitting diminishing returns. I mean the jump from SNES to N64? Huge, required a new game. N64 to GC? Again, pretty significant graphical leap. GC to Wii? Well now we have online so obviously, new release. Wii to Wii U? Again, massive jump in hardware power. But once we hit the Wii U.... ahh, more tracks? More tracks. Add more tracks

What would Mario Kart 9 be? .... probably more tracks again. Which I'm ok with but I'm not super desperate for given, you know, we're still getting new tracks for 8

@FishyS I love 2D Mario so a "new" collection would be epic! You make a good point about the 40th anniversary, maybe they'll do something for that.

@Bolt_Strike @gcunit @Owl1 @Professor_Plumber It seems harder to innovate with Smash than it does with other Nintendo franchises, I wonder if they would skip a generation and have Smash as a launch title on the Switch 3?

@skywake Nintendo said about a year and a half a go that they have an idea for Mario Kart 9. So they must have started work on it. It's as clear as day that the expansion pass is hardly AAA, and Tour is doing most of the heavy lifting, so I can imagine them starting on it. As to what it is? Well, we'll have to wait and see. But they tend to be more creative than us forum dwellers lol.

@GrailUK Wait where did Nintendo say this? They rarely ever talk about anything that hasn’t been officially confirmed.

@gcunit I like this lol! Hmmm...here's my take.

Gameplay footage of Noah fighting Shulk. (Youtubers everywhere sighing at another sword fighter.) WaLuigi comes out as an assist and KO's both of them. He looks off camera for approval, but the screen quickly fades to black with a 'waaagh' in the back ground. It cuts to more gameplay. This time Noah fighting Pyra. Again, WaLuigi comes on as an assist trophy but refuses to do anything. He just stands there disgruntled. A Smash icon appears and he grabs it. <insert bonkers smash here.> Again the camera fades to black. There is a brief exchange of invites (for an obviously forged one.) Sakurai happily announces the new fighter (but doesn't recall it being WaLuigi, but he has the invite so goes with it.) Cut to victory screen of Noah celebrating, but pushed out of shot by WaLuigi with slightly off Smash logo graphics (y'know like the forgery.) And he's in. Or something

@Chaotic_Neutral
I think you're really reaching there. Just going on one of your arguments there, the number of subscriptions. What about people who are on a family membership? What about people who have both a release day Switch in a box and a Switch OLED that they use? That "80 million people don't engage with Nintendo" figure you've come up with is a bit.... nonsense....

I mean lets do it another way, there are 47 million PS+ subscriptions but only 37 million PS5s sold. Wait, how does that work? Well we're possibly ignoring there that there were 117 million PS4s sold. So between both consoles there are 154 million consoles and 47mill subs. Which is about the same ratio as NSO subs to Switch consoles

But I think the biggest mistake you are making here, and a lot of people fall for this, is thinking of the market as groups of specific people. Rather than thinking about it like it actually is. A vague blob of general groups who weave in and out of the market depending on a huge array of variables

Yes, there are some people like me and you and most people who will lurk on this forum. People who will see shiny new Nintendo hardware, want to play shiny new Nintendo game and buy the thing on day 1. And there are also the people like you're describing here, I know of people who have done this with the Switch. Picked it up during lockdown, used it to pass the time and then haven't really touched it since. Those people do exist, just like the Grandparents who picked up a Wii for Wii Bowling existed

But there's a third group of people, a group you're not considering, people who are probably the majority of the market. People like my niece. She had a Wii when she was little, moved onto a PS4 in her teens, got a 3DS for Animal Crossing, then a Switch during lockdown again for Animal Crossing and recently picked up a PS5 to play Hogwarts Legacy

Will she get Nintendo's next hardware? I mean, maybe? But she's not going to be looking at the spec sheets and comparing it to the Steam Deck and XBox One. Instead she'll be looking at what games it has and what things it can do that she can't do on her PS5 and Switch. Honestly? If Hogwarts Legacy had been timely on new Switch hardware and ran good enough? She probably would have brought that over a PS5. If Nintendo announced new hardware tomorrow and confirmed it ran TotK significantly better than the Switch? She'd probably also buy one

And you have to remember that every day there is a new 8 year old getting their first console for their birthday. Every day there is someone who puts the controller down for the last time. The market is constantly shifting, we're not talking about one person. And for every single one of those people the decision on what platform to get is about what the new platform offers. Which includes perceptions about who a console is for and what specific games that platform has FAR more than what the spec is

@FragRed Oh they mentioned it last year sometime. Life is too short for me to commit everything they say to memory I'm afraid. They literally simply said words along the lines of '...we have an idea for the next Mario Kart.' Y'know, we are always working on game ideas or hardware type thing.