I know it's rather early but I'm going to do some Direct predictions for the next general Direct:
Airs on February 2nd or 3rd (the Wednesday or Thursday after Legends Arceus launch)
Spotlight titles are MH Rise Sunbreak, Splatoon 3 and Resident Evil
Direct opens with Resident Evil and closes with Splatoon 3
1st party presence features Splatoon 3, Advance Wars, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Wind Waker HD/Twilight Princess HD, Mario Party Superstars DLC and a FE6 remake (the FE1 localization trailer used Melee with a battle between Marth and Roy)
Mario Party DLC being a 2 part pass style structure with part 1 (N64) appearing around March and part 2 (GC) appearing around September
Heavy 3rd party presence with covering both known games like Triangle Strategy and Chocobo GP as well as new announcements like Mass Effect Legendary Edition, Batman Arkham Collection and Unravel (these are just a few examples of each)
No 1st party titles after Legends Arceus until April to give the 3rd party exclusives some room like Triangle Strategy, Chocobo GP and Rune Factory 5
In terms of 1st party release dates, I think it'll be:
@Grumblevolcano sadly the rumored timed Resident Evil exclusive for Switch is canceled, i expect the first general Nintendo Direct to focus heavily on Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Splatoon 3 e Monster Hunter Rise Sunbreak.
@Grumblevolcano I mean... I guess that could happen, but it wouldn't be very hype, and it would put a lot more pressure on E3 to deliver the goods on the 1st party front. Everyone's expecting things like SMO2, DK, Metroid Prime remake/trilogy, and XC3 because of rumors, and all they'd show is remakes and games we already know about? Then E3 would be expected to show a full reveal of BotW2 AND SMO2 AND DK AND XC3 and maybe more (How far along is MP4? What's going on with Mario Kart? What's Next Level Games been working on since LM3?), and I do think most of those are real and should be ready to show this year. I think they'd show a little bit more than that in the Spring Direct. I think the Metroid Prime remake/compilation is a near lock and that should be a Q3 game, and we'll see at least one or two more of either DK, XC3, FE, or a SMO2 teaser with a full blowout at E3.
@Bolt_Strike With the chip shortage giving Switch a large advantage while at the same potentially affecting when the successor releases, Nintendo benefits more from having a February Direct focused on up to July followed by a crazy E3 Direct. Then looking at Xbox and Playstation, most of the big titles for those platforms in 2022 announced so far are crammed into January - March.
@IceClimbers Oh right, I originally put in Splatoon 3 as May but forgot about Kirby so swapped them but forgot to place Splatoon 3 elsewhere. I'll put it in as June alongside FE6 Remake.
@Grumblevolcano Eh, maybe. But I don't think they'll be super strict about only showing stuff up through July. At the very least we'll probably see a game slated for August, and we might even see a Q4 game or 2023 game shown early (I mean we got Splatoon 3 last year and that game is probably at least a year off from when it was revealed). Your schedule for February-July seems fairly reasonable (with the possible exception of Metroid Prime being in July and WW/TP HD being August, but the reverse could also be true and that would still make your list accurate), but a tad too conservative for a year that's expected to be packed. Either way, I fully expect the Spring Direct to be the time we finally see Metroid Prime reappear on Switch in some capacity. Prime 4 is probably targeting 2023 and we just got Dread in 2021, so mid-2022 is the perfect time to put the older Primes so the momentum from Dread carries all the way to Prime 4.
I just wonder what next gen Pokemon will be announced if year 2022 will be following pattern of every 3 years = next gen Pokemon.
2013 = Gen 6
2016 = Gen 7
2019 = Gen 8
2022 = Gen 9 ???
@Bolt_Strike My thinking for August - December was:
August - 3rd party focused month
September - Metroid Prime remaster(s)
October - A platformer, Bayonetta 3
November - Pokemon Let's Go Johto, BotW 2
December - Next Monolith Soft game
Some notes about these:
August is usually 3rd party heavy so I think games like Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope will appear there
Prime's 20th anniversary is in September so I think any Prime remasters would appear around then and that + Prime 4 being the E3 closer
I feel Nintendo will do something near the Mario movie though with Cranky Kong in the Mario movie if anything comes of those DK rumours that could fit here
Bayonetta fits Halloween theme
I think if the platformer for October is a new Mario game that BotW 2 would end up being delayed to 2023
I feel if there was no unannounced mainline Pokemon game for November that Legends Arceus wouldn't have been in January, Gen 2 re-remakes fits the current pattern
XCX and XC2 released in December so I think the next Monolith Soft game will release in December
I think this kind of setup would result in Switch getting usual strong sales while not burning bridges with 3rd parties. Ubisoft absolutely doesn't deserve that honour but I sadly think Nintendo will give Sparks of Hope room.
@Grumblevolcano I definitely disagree with that second half 2022 lineup. Prime releasing in September and Bayonetta 3 releasing in October might make some sense, but everything else feels wrong. First of all, I don't think we're getting LG Johto in 2022. I'm not even sure we're getting it at all in fact. They just released 2 games within the span of 2 months, they'll probably be taking a break for most of 2022. At best they'll release Legends Arceus DLC in 2H 2022, but that's about it. BotW2 I predict will be delayed. They didn't seem very confident in hitting 2022 and they haven't been ready to show us much yet, so I suspect it'll be delayed to March 2023 like with BotW1. Not sure Monolith will make 2023 either. Meanwhile, I think we'll see at least 2 more big first party games, the first being the rumored DK game, and the second is either Odyssey 2 or Mario Kart (I'd put more money on Mario Kart than Odyssey 2 because the Mario Kart team has been less busy since 2017).
With the chip shortage potentially delaying the new console indefinitely, Mario Kart's last excuse for not showing up falls apart. There's no reason to just sit on Mario Kart and go 6+ years without any new entry MK8D sales be damned, they need another Mario Kart to help keep the momentum for another 3+ years and a built from the ground up Mario Kart could really bring new ideas to the franchise that could do that. At this point you can either say we're not getting the Switch successor anytime soon or we're not getting a new Mario Kart on Switch, not both. Now if they're worried about the new game cannibalizing MK8D's sales they could go for something different like a Nintendo Kart or a Mario Kart World where it's an open world, DKR/Forza Horizon style racer and have a new subseries of Mario Kart games to facilitate having 2 per console and we could still end up having to wait for a true Mario Kart 9 on the successor in 2025/2026, but I don't see them going so long without a Mario Kart something on Switch (and something other than Home Circuit, as that is a peripheral gimmick and not a full fledged, main series Mario Kart entry). Nintendo likes money, but they also like to come up with creative ideas and I can't see them looking at the Switch and thinking "Nah, we're going to pass up the opportunity to do something unique and groundbreaking with Mario Kart because a past game port is selling so well".
Anyway, so I think the lineup will look more like this:
September: Metroid Prime
October: Bayonetta 3
November: Mario Kart
December: DK
Meanwhile we get the following reveals in 2022, but they don't actually release until 2023:
BotW2 name, story, and Spring 2023 release window
Prime 4 story teaser with a 2023 release window
Xenoblade Chronicles 3
@Bolt_Strike I do think another Pokemon game in November is why there's such a short gap between BDSP and Legends Arceus. I hope it's a situation where Legends Arceus gets an expansion pass like you say but my prediction is Let's Go.
As for BotW 2, I did mention in notes part that I could see it being delayed to 2023 and we end up with a new Mario platformer instead for the holidays. I don't think they'd release both BotW 2 and a new Mario platformer a month apart.
Regarding Mario Kart, I still think Nintendo's pulling a GTAV with MK8. You don't see any announcements for GTA6 even 8 years later because GTAV is still smashing insane sales records.
@Grumblevolcano Releasing another Pokemon game in November would be pure foolishness on Game Freak's part. They've blown their load in late 2021/early 2022, they're not going to be able to cobble together a full game in 9 months (and if they try, it's going to be a mess, maybe even a Sonic 06-esque mess). If they try, it's going to end up a disaster. It would also seriously cannibalize Legends Arceus sales and would basically mean they've sent that game out to die, they're going to want to squeeze some more sales out of it next holiday. Legends Arceus DLC might actually be the smart move really since it's a way to give the game more life in a more financially lucrative time of the year and help the game succeed. Game Freak has most likely poured a ton of resources into it, so it would be a waste for them to release it in the dead zone of the year, then replace it with something else at the game's best opportunity for a sales bump.
I'd like to have one or the other of BotW2 and MO2 in 2022, but IDK, the Zelda team is struggling for some reason and the 3D Mario team spent some time on 3D All Stars and 3D World + Bowser's Fury, so Holiday 2022 seems a bit optimistic. BotW2, MO2, and XC3 seem like the most likely candidates out of expected 2022 games that don't actually release until 2023 because of their size and scale and because their teams have had other significant projects in between.
Nintendo is not Rockstar, they like money but they also like to be creative and unique. They don't just sit on something if they have a creative idea for it, that's not their MO. If they've thought up a new idea for Mario Kart, and they probably have after doing next to nothing since 2017, they'll just come out with it.
@Bolt_Strike ... I'm going to agree with @Grumblevolcano here. Every console gets a Mario Kart but in the minds of the vast, vast majority of people on Switch Mario Kart 8 is a Switch game. I don't think the Switch needs a Mario Kart 9 and frankly I don't see what it would bring to the table. I'd consider skipping it if it was just a flat new Switch release, and I say that as the dude who has my avatar.....
I do think this is the year where if we don't get new hardware we're going to start seeing titles that would've been showcase pieces for new hardware. Dread was definitely a showcase piece for the OLED screen and was released with that timing for that reason. I have always had a suspicion that BOTW2 was going to be a way to show off new hardware but it's not a title they would hold back for it. If we do get a "Pro" model this year, or whatever people want to call it, expect a bit of an avalanche at the end of this year. Mario Kart 9 could have been such a title
But in general I'd say the Zelda and Metroid Prime remakes are the easiest of bets. Bayonetta 3 at the tail end of the year is enough to keep me happy. But we are also getting Kirby, BotW and Mario & Rabbids, all of which I'm pretty hyped about, so it's going to be a pretty damn great year for me. All of these and probably Metroid Prime Trilogy if it happens are must gets for me. I'm set.
I wouldn't mind getting SOME surprises on the software side though. There are still some game niches missing from the Switch library. I would be pretty hyped if we got something like Pikmin 4, Mario Strikers or Wario Land. The Switch is also missing a lot of Wii era motion games and DS era touch games even though it can do both. Nothing like Wii Sports or Rhythm Heaven for example and nothing like Nintendo Land for that matter even though you could technically do that with two Switches. Anything along those lines I'd be MUCH more interested in than another Mario Kart
@skywake What would it bring to the table? There's a ton of possibilities:
1. I mentioned making it open world like DKR and Forza Horizon.
2. Nintendo Kart is also an option I mentioned earlier, adding new characters, items, and tracks from other Nintendo series (I'm less enthusiastic about this option personally, but it can add a lot more diversity to the game's assets).
3. Bring back Double Dash mode, perhaps expand on it by allowing the karts to split (they could do things like let you dodge/go around obstacles, potentially include literal rubber band mechanics like Knuckles' Chaotix).
3. Adapt Tour's mechanics to the main series. Introduce shops (why was this not a thing before, the stupid "collect X coins to unlock a random part" was always nonsensical and a shop makes way more sense), add in R and/or T variants to get more mileage out of the same tracks, add costumes/variants for characters, run time limited event cups to make the game more evergreen (something equivalent to Splatfests/Spirit Board Events/Dynamax Events), and bring back Mission Mode.
4. Full track editor (Home Circuit did do this, but it was a bit limited).
EDIT: Also, in regards to the lack of touch/motion control games, I think Nintendo's seen that those games don't particularly sell well with the Switch's audience, most of the people that bought those games on Wii and DS have moved on and the Switch user base isn't as receptive to touch and motion controls. The Switch can also replicate some of those things, but not very well, and anything that requires dual screen gameplay that we would've seen on the DS, 3DS, or Wii U is off the table (maybe next gen they'll have an upgraded Switch that could replicate those consoles better). I think Rhythm Heaven is a possibility, that one seems to be fairly popular (although IDK the gameplay that well, so maybe the Switch won't be able to replicate it that well). But most of those other ones? Probably gone for good.
@Bolt_Strike All of those are ideas that would dilute the core strength of Mario Kart though.
Shops in particular. They instantly make the game more of an investment of time to play. One of the most understated but important improvements from MK8 to MK8DX was the fact that everything was open and unlocked (save for the purely cosmetic customisations) from the beginning. The randomness isn't a flaw - it's a deliberate (and correct) decision made to trivialise the customisations.
I'd possibly take it even further and have everything unlocked from the get go - if I've paid £50 for a party game there should be no grinding at all. Definitely no hooks built around trying to turn players into in-game consumers (I've actively avoided CTR for this reason).
Mario Kart simply isn't a game that needs artificial hooks like that to keep players playing.
Likewise "open-world" and more complex mechanics are the opposite of what the series thrives on. It's a game that anyone should be able to pick up for the very first time and enjoy within 5 minutes. Even more granular accessibility options (like an option for the game to automatically take every opportunity to give players the speed boost for jumping off the apex of ramps) would make more sense.
I'd take more tracks as DLC (preferrably free) but otherwise if I were Nintendo I'd keep MK9 stewing away quietly on the backburner and kick its development up a gear when the next console is approaching release.
@StuTwo The parts aren't really cosmetic though, they affect your car's stats. That much needs to change if they want to trivialize unlocking them. And even then, keeping them random is still the wrong way to go about it. What if they want a specific part but the RNG doesn't work in their favor? A shop would be a much better way to do that, then they could choose which one they want with much less time and effort.
Any game can benefit from evergreen content. Pokemon is also meant to be accessible, yet even they have evergreen content with the Max Raid events to give people a reason to come back months and even years after they've finished the game. People will get bored of your game if you don't continually add new content in some way regardless of the type of game.
The open world game would be a subseries. Think something like the sandbox Marios vs. the linear course clear Marios or 2D Metroid vs. Metroid Prime. Every Mario Kart game from then on would not be open world, they would alternate between the traditional Mario Karts and the open world Mario Karts. It's a way to provide a new style of racing in addition to what they have already, not replacing what we have.
Also, you didn't mention anything about Nintendo Kart, R/T variants, costumes, Mission Mode, or track editors. How exactly do they "dilute the core strength of Mario Kart"?
@Bolt_Strike Super Mario 3D World+ Bowser Fury was developed by Nintendo software planing, Nintendo EPD tokyo must be busy working on the rumored 2D Donkey Kong game or a new 3D Mario game.
@Bolt_Strike
I still think there are far more interesting IPs they could make sequels for than Mario Kart. That's before we even think about the potential for new IP. In any case, 2021 looks pretty healthy as it is so they don't really need a Mario Kart 9 in any case
As for the last bit i.e. "touch and motion doesn't sell on Switch". TBH I'm not sure there's much evidence for it not working on Switch. Skyward Sword HD did pretty well and even Clubhouse games moved a few million units despite being a husk of a release. 3D All Stars moved ~9mill units and included Galaxy with its motion controls, Ring Fit Adventure is currently sitting at 12mill. Touch and motion does fine on Switch, I would think something along the lines of a Wii Sports remake would do insanely well
As for Rhythm Heaven? It's basically a one button game but it exploded on DS where it used the touchscreen instead. It's a touch-era game but it doesn't require the touch screen at all. The Wii version just used the A button. But the point remains, there are a bunch of quirky releases like that from the Wii/DS era that are entirely absent in the Switch's library.
In terms of dual screen gameplay on Switch? They've already done it, more than once depending on how you look at it. Clubhouse games has a multi-Switch mode where you play the game across multiple units. It's not streaming the video but it doesn't need to, you could do something like this to replicate something like the hide-and-seek multiplayer modes from Nintendo Land. But there is also Mario Kart Live which streams a video feed. Of course the Switch isn't a dumb device like the Wii U GamePad, if you were replicating some kind of dual-screen thing you'd just render the game on both to get a cleaner image
Anyways, the above is a bit of a distraction. My main argument was just about forgotten games on the Switch more generally that would be more welcome additions to the library than Mario Kart 9. Not necessarily better sellers but still. Where's Wario Land, Mario Strikers? Why not bring back Punchout or do another Kid Icarus? There are a lot of titles I'd like to see on Switch before Mario Kart 9
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@skywake No, I think we'll still see games like Skyward Sword and Mario Galaxy that use motion controls, but bringing back casual motion control gimmicks for the sake of casual motion control gimmicks is unnecessary. Wii Sports only really sold well as a pack in title, otherwise there's no reason to have it when we already have Mario sports games. And Nintendo Land was a glorified tech demo and its minigames are better off being integrated into the actual IPs they represent instead of being a minigame game. The Switch has its fair share of these quirky experiments (Labo, Ring Fit Adventure, Game Builder Garage), but they're mainly one offs that tinker with the capabilities of the Switch, they don't seem to be interested in revisiting the quirky experiments they did before.
Furthermore, I see no reason why this has to be an either/or scenario. They can make Mario Kart AND some more of these games like Wario Land and Pikmin (assuming they're actually interested in bringing them back, which is a whole different discussion).
@StuTwo The parts aren't really cosmetic though, they affect your car's stats. That much needs to change if they want to trivialize unlocking them. And even then, keeping them random is still the wrong way to go about it. What if they want a specific part but the RNG doesn't work in their favor? A shop would be a much better way to do that, then they could choose which one they want with much less time and effort.
Maybe we just have completely different ideas about what Mario Kart is/should be. To me the real strength of Mario Kart is that it's a pure arcade party game - in many ways it's the last great survivor of that genre. Everything should emphasize that IMO.
Yes the parts do have a minor impact on stats but it's negligible to the point that the weapon you pick up first has a bigger impact on where you finish. Picking parts should just be fun based on what's available rather than a max/min-ing exercise. I mean I'm sure that some people do have Excel spreadsheets set up to determine what loadout is going to give them a 2-3% advantage on each given track but really that's the antithesis of the game.
The devs could have chosen at any point in the past 25 years to make the game more skill based - at every turn they've backed away from that, favouring elements of RNG to minimise the advantage of more technically skilled players.
A shop and the ability to pick exactly what parts you want would change things - some players would beeline straight for the "optimal" equipment and you'd be immediately slowing the interface in a party situation (not to mention introducing arguments amongst kids about what they should spend their coins on!).
Any game can benefit from evergreen content. Pokemon is also meant to be accessible, yet even they have evergreen content with the Max Raid events to give people a reason to come back months and even years after they've finished the game. People will get bored of your game if you don't continually add new content in some way regardless of the type of game.
In most cases I'd agree but I'd also suggest that the continued sales of Mario Kart 8, the fact that the lobbies are still full and the fact that it's still the game that most people pick up first for local multiplayer all suggests that "players" haven't got bored of Mario Kart 8. You might have but in general it's still consistently amongst the best selling games every month.
To a certain point Mario Kart is a singular game in that regard. It's almost like a tautology - the ongoing hook for Mario Kart is that it is Mario Kart.
Other games need artificial hooks designed to keep you addicted and gaming but Mario Kart as a series simply hasn't needed it.
Also, you didn't mention anything about Nintendo Kart, R/T variants, costumes, Mission Mode, or track editors. How exactly do they "dilute the core strength of Mario Kart"?
Don't get me wrong - there's plenty of things that could be done with the series to make it a more compelling single player game. I still think Diddy Kong Racing is a better single player game than any Mario Kart has ever been and that's a 20 year old game. It's just clearly not their priority and if they were to make a Mario Kart with a great (but inevitably grindy and FOMO driven) single player mode then I'm not sure it would be a game that would automatically sell tens of millions of units.
People buy Mario Kart because it's a casual friendly, instantly accessible roller-coaster ride of an arcade game that's great for mutliplayer.
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