Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

I've been looking forward to Omori for an absolute eternity. I don't think Undertale had come out when I first heard about it. I was seriously considering buying it on PC (which I almost never do) if it took too long to come to Switch.

I do feel bad for Hollow Knight fans though. Like every chance for it to come back, it never has. I know nothing about Hollow Knight but wasn't it supposed to just be like a free update or something? I have to assume its now just a full sequel or something after all this time.

@kkslider5552000 It started as DLC, but then became it's own game due to them having so many ideas for it. Much like Mario Galaxy and BotW 2. I feel like it's probably in development hell, since they probably bit off way more than they could chew with Silksong. We haven't heard about it in years, and that'll probably be a trend for quite some time.

So looking at games announced in general Directs and big events, the list of games not yet released is (Switch exclusives are bolded):

• Wreckfest (Fall 2021, announced September 2021 Direct)
• Outer Wilds (Holiday 2021, announced February 2021 Direct)
• Neon White (Holiday 2021, announced February 2021 Direct)
• Pokemon Legends Arceus (January 28th 2022, announced February 2021 Pokemon Presents)
• Dying Light 2 Cloud Version (February 4th 2022, announced September 2021 Direct)
• Triangle Strategy (March 4th 2022, announced February 2021 Direct)
• Chocobo GP (March 10th 2022, announced September 2021 Direct)
• Rune Factory 5 (March 22nd 2022, announced February 2019 Direct)
• Advance Wars 1+2 Re-Boot Camp (Spring 2022, announced E3 2021)
• Kirby and the Forgotten Land (Spring 2022, announced September 2021 Direct)
• Monster Hunter Rise Sunbreak (Summer 2022, announced September 2021 Direct)
• Bayonetta 3 (2022, announced Game Awards 2017)
• BotW 2 (2022, announced E3 2019)
• Fall Guys (2022, announced February 2021 Direct)
• Star Wars Hunters (2022, announced February 2021 Direct)
• Splatoon 3 (2022, announced February 2021 Direct)
• Life is Strange Remastered Collection (2022, announced E3 2021)
• Two Point Campus (2022, announced E3 2021)
• Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope (2022, announced E3 2021)
• Shadowrun Trilogy (2022, announced September 2021 Direct)
• Metroid Prime 4 (TBA, announced E3 2017)
• Detective Pikachu (TBA, announced May 2019 Pokemon Press Conference)
• Hollow Knight Silksong (TBA, announced E3 2019)
• Kingdom Hearts Cloud Versions (TBA, announced Sora Smash Ultimate presentation)

I still think around February 3rd is most likely (the week after Legends Arceus) but there are some timing that could put it much earlier (the first 3 still have 2021 release windows but 2021 is almost over) or later (3 3rd party Switch exclusives in March 2022 means Nintendo likely won't have anything 1st party after Legends Arceus until April at the earliest).

@Grumblevolcano so the first general Nintendo Direct in february?with the confirmation of Kirby and the Forgotten Land release date, Hollow Knight Silksong release date and maybe the reveal of the rumored Metroid Prime 1 remaster/remake?

@Giancarlothomaz Silksong is probably not happening for a long time. It's pretty much in development hell from the looks of it.

@VoidofLight Deveolpment hell seems like an overstatement. The last of the DLC for Hallow Knight was in late 2018, it's a small team of 3 people plus covid has delayed everything. The original took 4/5 years to make and it's been 2/3 years since it was announced so it doesn't seem like it's due any minute anyway.

It's just the yoof today with their cellular phones getting constant information whilst on a sugar high from their soda pops are just too impatience, plus there's this latest fad of declaring things cancelled.

@jump Hollow Knight Silksong is made by a team of 3 people, that impressive.

@Giancarlothomaz You can see all of Team Cherry below. Be quick before someone cancels them for taking too long to make Silksong.

https://www.teamcherry.com.au/about

I've never seen anyone cancel developers for taking too long to make a game. The main reason I just assume it's in development hell is because we haven't seen anything about the game since it's initial reveal... and generally, when that happens, a game is probably in dev hell.

Either that, or it's like Prime 4, and restarted development entirely... which isn't a stranger towards indie games in the slightest.

I'm just of the opinion that if we hadn't seen a game since it's reveal, then it's probably years off from release, given that it seems to be a pattern in the industry, pandemic or no pandemic. Games are sometimes revealed way too early, causing people to have to wait a while to get their hands on them. BotW, for example, was revealed way before it was even ready, so the massive delays it had made people wait a while. Final Fantasy XV, another game that people were waiting for was revealed in 2006, and didn't release until 2016, due to being in development hell and having to start over entirely due to it. Then you have Metroid Prime 4, which was revealed way before it had gameplay, with no development updates until 2019, where they confirmed that the game had been scrapped and they were restarting development entirely with an entirely different dev team.

Games being revealed way too early is a trend in this industry, and while some indie games seem to thankfully avoid that, Silksong was probably one of those indie games which didn't, and we probably learned about it way before they should've done so.

@jump intereting that explain the long development of Hollow Knight Silksong.

I know it's rather early but I'm going to do some Direct predictions for the next general Direct:

• Airs on February 2nd or 3rd (the Wednesday or Thursday after Legends Arceus launch)
• Spotlight titles are MH Rise Sunbreak, Splatoon 3 and Resident Evil
• Direct opens with Resident Evil and closes with Splatoon 3
• 1st party presence features Splatoon 3, Advance Wars, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Wind Waker HD/Twilight Princess HD, Mario Party Superstars DLC and a FE6 remake (the FE1 localization trailer used Melee with a battle between Marth and Roy)
• Mario Party DLC being a 2 part pass style structure with part 1 (N64) appearing around March and part 2 (GC) appearing around September
• Heavy 3rd party presence with covering both known games like Triangle Strategy and Chocobo GP as well as new announcements like Mass Effect Legendary Edition, Batman Arkham Collection and Unravel (these are just a few examples of each)
• No 1st party titles after Legends Arceus until April to give the 3rd party exclusives some room like Triangle Strategy, Chocobo GP and Rune Factory 5

In terms of 1st party release dates, I think it'll be:

• April - Advance Wars
• May - Kirby and the Forgotten Land
• June - FE6 remake, Splatoon 3
• July - Wind Waker HD/Twilight Princess HD

@Grumblevolcano sadly the rumored timed Resident Evil exclusive for Switch is canceled, i expect the first general Nintendo Direct to focus heavily on Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Splatoon 3 e Monster Hunter Rise Sunbreak.

@Grumblevolcano I mean... I guess that could happen, but it wouldn't be very hype, and it would put a lot more pressure on E3 to deliver the goods on the 1st party front. Everyone's expecting things like SMO2, DK, Metroid Prime remake/trilogy, and XC3 because of rumors, and all they'd show is remakes and games we already know about? Then E3 would be expected to show a full reveal of BotW2 AND SMO2 AND DK AND XC3 and maybe more (How far along is MP4? What's going on with Mario Kart? What's Next Level Games been working on since LM3?), and I do think most of those are real and should be ready to show this year. I think they'd show a little bit more than that in the Spring Direct. I think the Metroid Prime remake/compilation is a near lock and that should be a Q3 game, and we'll see at least one or two more of either DK, XC3, FE, or a SMO2 teaser with a full blowout at E3.

@Grumblevolcano No way Splatoon 3 gets pushed out that far. It's almost certainly gonna be a June or July release.

I honestly don't think Fire Emblem is happening until 2023.

@Bolt_Strike With the chip shortage giving Switch a large advantage while at the same potentially affecting when the successor releases, Nintendo benefits more from having a February Direct focused on up to July followed by a crazy E3 Direct. Then looking at Xbox and Playstation, most of the big titles for those platforms in 2022 announced so far are crammed into January - March.

@IceClimbers Oh right, I originally put in Splatoon 3 as May but forgot about Kirby so swapped them but forgot to place Splatoon 3 elsewhere. I'll put it in as June alongside FE6 Remake.

@Grumblevolcano Eh, maybe. But I don't think they'll be super strict about only showing stuff up through July. At the very least we'll probably see a game slated for August, and we might even see a Q4 game or 2023 game shown early (I mean we got Splatoon 3 last year and that game is probably at least a year off from when it was revealed). Your schedule for February-July seems fairly reasonable (with the possible exception of Metroid Prime being in July and WW/TP HD being August, but the reverse could also be true and that would still make your list accurate), but a tad too conservative for a year that's expected to be packed. Either way, I fully expect the Spring Direct to be the time we finally see Metroid Prime reappear on Switch in some capacity. Prime 4 is probably targeting 2023 and we just got Dread in 2021, so mid-2022 is the perfect time to put the older Primes so the momentum from Dread carries all the way to Prime 4.

I just wonder what next gen Pokemon will be announced if year 2022 will be following pattern of every 3 years = next gen Pokemon.
2013 = Gen 6
2016 = Gen 7
2019 = Gen 8
2022 = Gen 9 ???

@Bolt_Strike My thinking for August - December was:

• August - 3rd party focused month
• September - Metroid Prime remaster(s)
• October - A platformer, Bayonetta 3
• November - Pokemon Let's Go Johto, BotW 2
• December - Next Monolith Soft game

Some notes about these:

• August is usually 3rd party heavy so I think games like Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope will appear there
• Prime's 20th anniversary is in September so I think any Prime remasters would appear around then and that + Prime 4 being the E3 closer
• I feel Nintendo will do something near the Mario movie though with Cranky Kong in the Mario movie if anything comes of those DK rumours that could fit here
• Bayonetta fits Halloween theme
• I think if the platformer for October is a new Mario game that BotW 2 would end up being delayed to 2023
• I feel if there was no unannounced mainline Pokemon game for November that Legends Arceus wouldn't have been in January, Gen 2 re-remakes fits the current pattern
• XCX and XC2 released in December so I think the next Monolith Soft game will release in December

I think this kind of setup would result in Switch getting usual strong sales while not burning bridges with 3rd parties. Ubisoft absolutely doesn't deserve that honour but I sadly think Nintendo will give Sparks of Hope room.

@Grumblevolcano I definitely disagree with that second half 2022 lineup. Prime releasing in September and Bayonetta 3 releasing in October might make some sense, but everything else feels wrong. First of all, I don't think we're getting LG Johto in 2022. I'm not even sure we're getting it at all in fact. They just released 2 games within the span of 2 months, they'll probably be taking a break for most of 2022. At best they'll release Legends Arceus DLC in 2H 2022, but that's about it. BotW2 I predict will be delayed. They didn't seem very confident in hitting 2022 and they haven't been ready to show us much yet, so I suspect it'll be delayed to March 2023 like with BotW1. Not sure Monolith will make 2023 either. Meanwhile, I think we'll see at least 2 more big first party games, the first being the rumored DK game, and the second is either Odyssey 2 or Mario Kart (I'd put more money on Mario Kart than Odyssey 2 because the Mario Kart team has been less busy since 2017).

With the chip shortage potentially delaying the new console indefinitely, Mario Kart's last excuse for not showing up falls apart. There's no reason to just sit on Mario Kart and go 6+ years without any new entry MK8D sales be damned, they need another Mario Kart to help keep the momentum for another 3+ years and a built from the ground up Mario Kart could really bring new ideas to the franchise that could do that. At this point you can either say we're not getting the Switch successor anytime soon or we're not getting a new Mario Kart on Switch, not both. Now if they're worried about the new game cannibalizing MK8D's sales they could go for something different like a Nintendo Kart or a Mario Kart World where it's an open world, DKR/Forza Horizon style racer and have a new subseries of Mario Kart games to facilitate having 2 per console and we could still end up having to wait for a true Mario Kart 9 on the successor in 2025/2026, but I don't see them going so long without a Mario Kart something on Switch (and something other than Home Circuit, as that is a peripheral gimmick and not a full fledged, main series Mario Kart entry). Nintendo likes money, but they also like to come up with creative ideas and I can't see them looking at the Switch and thinking "Nah, we're going to pass up the opportunity to do something unique and groundbreaking with Mario Kart because a past game port is selling so well".

Anyway, so I think the lineup will look more like this:

September: Metroid Prime
October: Bayonetta 3
November: Mario Kart
December: DK

Meanwhile we get the following reveals in 2022, but they don't actually release until 2023:
BotW2 name, story, and Spring 2023 release window
Prime 4 story teaser with a 2023 release window
Xenoblade Chronicles 3

@Bolt_Strike I do think another Pokemon game in November is why there's such a short gap between BDSP and Legends Arceus. I hope it's a situation where Legends Arceus gets an expansion pass like you say but my prediction is Let's Go.

As for BotW 2, I did mention in notes part that I could see it being delayed to 2023 and we end up with a new Mario platformer instead for the holidays. I don't think they'd release both BotW 2 and a new Mario platformer a month apart.

Regarding Mario Kart, I still think Nintendo's pulling a GTAV with MK8. You don't see any announcements for GTA6 even 8 years later because GTAV is still smashing insane sales records.