Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@Fizza The new pokemon probably won't be exclusive I feel, but I'm hoping that most of the switch 2 games aren't also on the switch.

@Fizza 3D Mario seems like a slam dunk for a Year 1 title, yeah. Zelda? I mean we just had TotK so 3D Zelda is probably not coming for a while outside of remakes. 2D Zelda? Maybe we'll get a new one, but there's also been rumors of Oracles remakes for a few years so IDK. We get Fire Emblem games all the freaking time so I could see that. Kirby I have a sneaking feeling will be Year 2 if only because we've never had one at launch, but maybe. There's also the question of whether or not they'll permanently switch to 3D games or alternate between 2D and 3D, if it's the former then they're probably going to need more time.

There's some other games I think might be distinct possibilities Year 1. There's been a lot of rumors flying around about DK, he's been getting a lot of promotion, and yet... there's been no new DK game in a decade. Similarly, Mario Kart has mainly been ports and mobile content for a decade and it feels like this series is in desperate need of something new. I think the next big Mario Kart is a Year 1 title.

There's also some that I'm less certain are Year 1 titles but I do think will be early Switch 2 titles (like, Year 2 or 3). Luigi's Mansion 4, Yoshi, Animal Crossing, and 2D Metroid should probably be ready for new games around this time and I think these will all be Switch 2 exclusives.

So yeah, I'm not worried about Nintendo having Switch 2 exclusives. There's plenty of viable candidates.

@VoidofLight Gen 10 will be exclusive. You can lock that one in, I don't think cross gen compatibility will work well for Pokemon and the new generation is a good time to try and take advantage of the jump in hardware to do new things. Any further Gen 9 games though? Yeah, those will probably be OG Switch games. Game Freak is never one to jump on new hardware immediately, they typically wait a few years. They actually transitioned to the Switch earlier than usual with LGPE, but I doubt they do the same thing again. I think the question is more are they going to have a 3 year dev cycle AGAIN and release it in 2025 or are they going to extend it to 4 years in 2026 so they can release it on the 30th anniversary? We'd certainly all prefer the latter, but Game Freak and TPC seem to be cynical enough that they seem to believe a 3 year dev cycle is an absolute necessity (which is completely backwards thinking because of how horribly buggy and unpolished it makes the games, but it is what it is).

@Bolt_Strike HAL were just hiring people for a new 3D Kirby game so I'd say one that comes out in the 2nd year of the Switch 2 seems pretty likely given how that was the pattern that Star Allies followed with the OG Switch.

I'd personally hedge my bets that something like this will be the big first-year titles for Switch 2:

• 3D Mario (launch title)
• 2D Zelda
• Fire Emblem
• Animal Crossing
• Reboot/Revival of a long-dormant IP (i.e. basically what they did with Kid Icarus Uprising)
• Mario Sports game
• New IP (not as confident in this as they could very easily save something like this for Year 2 or 3 but we'll see)

I'd also assume Nintendo's probably got a lot of 3rd-Parties on board to handle Switch 2 exclusives as well since a big factor in the OG Switch's success was the insane level of 3rd-Party support compared to previous systems (Square Enix with Octopath Traveler, Capcom with Monster Hunter Rise, Bandai Namco just in general, etc.) so that'd probably help break up potential dry spells in the schedule too.

This has been mentioned before especially by @skywake, but better hardware actually makes development cost cheaper (or at worst it stays the same). It's only more expensive if you make bigger and bigger games but for a given game it's not more expensive. Making a game like e.g. TotK on much better hardware than Switch would simply be cheaper because you wouldn't have to hyper-optimize everything. All sorts of tricks to reduce cost slightly and keep quality are available with better hardware.

When someone says tech for PS5 and Xbox Series hasn't gotten used, usually they mean they haven't made many games which absolutely stretch the resources to the limit (which is very expensive) but they may still use that tech to make development of slightly smaller games cheaper/easier.

@Fizza I just can't not see DK and Mario Kart not being there Year 1. They've had long gaps since their previous (new) entry and it seems like Nintendo's been intentionally holding these IPs back for longer than they'd naturally be ready to release a new entry. I think they're specifically waiting to put these on new hardware as with 3D Mario, so they should certainly be ready Year 1.

We can pretty much say for certain there's going to be at least one new IP Year 1. But it might not be the one we want. Pretty much a guarantee that there's going to some kind of new casual party game IP to show off the capabilities of the new hardware. Something comparable to Wii Sports, Nintendo Land, and 1-2 Switch, but a new IP instead of a sequel to one of those. Not sure if we'll get any New IPs aside from that though. I definitely think there's going to be a push this generation to build out their portfolio with new IPs and spinoffs of existing IPs to pad out their lineup, but I'm not sure if we'll see any of them Year 1.

Interesting that you mention a reboot of a dormant IP. Do you have any in mind? I'm struggling to think of any that Nintendo might be interested in bringing back (I personally think it would be neat to bring back Duck Hunt as a 3D sandbox platformer and serve as sort of a hybrid of Banjo-Kazooie and Metroid II, but I'm not sure if anyone at Nintendo would be interested in anything like this).

@FishyS True, but at the same time they need to show an improvement over the previous gen to get people to buy it. Just making the same kinds of games but cheaper isn't something they're going to be willing to do, it's too similar so it'd be tougher to market and they won't want to just drop the price because they want to increase profits. So they feel they need to add something extra to make it worth the while.

The larger issue is that they want to only focus on improving the graphics and that limits them far too much. Graphical improvements are facing diminishing returns so that's not a good avenue for improving over the previous generation. I think Nintendo has the right idea by focusing on control innovations/improvements, that's where the most potential for improvement seems to be. Finding new control schemes that can expand how the player can interact with the game, allowing more natural motions instead of the same old sticks and buttons. I think that's where they're going to have the easiest time convincing people that new hardware can do new things the previous hardware can't. But they don't seem to be willing to do that, they'd rather just waste money using more advanced hardware to make each blade of grass extra shiny.

My guess for Switch 2 up to the end of March 2026:

• New 3D Mario (launch)
• New game to showcase hardware like Wii Sports/Nintendo Land/1-2-Switch (launch)
• New Animal Crossing (Spring 2025)
• New Mario Tennis (Summer 2025)
• Astral Chain 2 (Summer 2025)
• 3D All Stars 2 - Contains Galaxy 2 and 3D Land, note that the original 3D All Stars and SMB 35 gets relisted (September 12th 2025)
• Hyrule Warriors 3 - Takes place during the Imprisoning War (Fall 2025)
• New Mario Kart or a "Everyone and everywhere is here" type Mario Kart Ultimate (Fall 2025)
• Pokemon Gen 10 (November 21st 2025)
• Xenoblade Chronicles X Definitive Edition - Adds extra story content which resolves the cliffhanger (Holiday 2025)
• New Fire Emblem (Early 2026)
• New Kirby (Early 2026)

In this prediction, Prime 4 is a Switch 1 only game coming in 2024.

@Grumblevolcano Please oh please mario maker 3 in that list.

Edit: Oh, you said March 2026, I was thinking you were doing all of 2026. 🤔 I think/hope they've been working on mario maker 3 with Wonder style for a while, but it's anyone's guess where they are at in development. It may also depend on whether Wonder gets DLC.

The paradox of modern gamers. Rightly asking why game development is getting more expensive and game ideas are getting safer and more corporate as a result. But then also asking why we need new hardware when developers aren't squeezing every drop of performance out these new machines to deliver brand new types of experiences

These two ideas may well feel right, and as a gamer I agree with both, but they're competing ideas. Developers aren't pushing the limits of what the hardware can do to deliver new experiences because upping the scope of a game is exponentially more expensive. And the more expensive the game the safer it has to be which pushes the budget even higher because you then inevitably burn marketing dollars to reduce the risk even further

This is why I like Nintendo's content. Not because they're not pushing the hardware or their hardware is underpowered. But because they have IP that's strong enough they can take gameplay risks. They can slap Mario or Pokemon on the box and it's an instant million seller. No marketing required. Nintendo own the mid-tier experimental titles space, the space that has largely evaporated across the industry

Better hardware will not change that. Better hardware isn't the cause of all your ills

@Grumblevolcano Most of this list seems reasonable, but if they are doing a 3D All Stars 2, I don't see it being in 2025. They would need to give the new 3D game time to breathe, I wouldn't expect another 3D Mario, even a port/remake, that soon after. Probably 2027 at the earliest.

I'm expecting Splatoon 4 no later than 2026. There's already signs that support for 3 might end sooner than we think. The long-awaited story DLC is out this week. Salmon Run is just getting one more map. Catalogs are getting lighter on new content. I want Nintendo to support Splatfest for a while longer because of more new players picking up the game for Side Order, but at this rate, I'm expecting the game's Final Fest to be as soon as this September for the anniversary.

What complicates things is the next Animal Crossing. Many of the same Splatoon developers like Hisashi Nogami worked on that series, if not being the same team. Nintendo will definitely prioritize the next Animal Crossing over Splatoon 4.

I don't get why people think we're getting a ton of big titles in the first two years. I just don't see them doing that, since they didn't do that with the switch.

@skywake For me, I just want to actually feel like the purchase was worth it. Paid around 700 USD for a PS5, only for me to use it to play games I could play on the PS4 with no actual upgrades or enhancements to said games. The only game I own that even was made for the PS5 in mind was Final Fantasy XVI, and that game isn't going to remain exclusive.

It would have been very risky doing it with Switch since Wii U userbase was so small... if Switch had tanked they would have been in even more trouble if they had tied a ton of expensive games to it day 1. With Switch 2 they are just trying to shift an already existing user base so it's a bit different and they can more safely start with momentum... although I do think some of the laundry lists of predictions are more like Wishlists rather than what Nintendo will do. 😆

@VoidofLight Not sure what you're talking about with a lack of big games in the first two years. From March 2017 to March 2019 we got BotW, Super Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade 2, an updated Mario Kart 8 that not many played due to the poor sales of the Wii U, Super Smash Bros Ultimate, Splatoon 2, Octopath Traveller, Super Mario Party, Mario and Rabbids, and a whole bunch of other spin-offs and Wii U ports. Granted, BotW also came out on the Wii U, but the vast majority of people bought a Switch at the beginning to play that game.

But I get what you mean, I don't want it to be another PS5 situation where Nintendo gets cocky from their recent success and pumps out exclusives slowly and/or resorts to a lot of cross-gen. I don't want it to feel like a wasted purchase either. Unless there's a new 3D Mario game or something else big on the horizon, it'll be awhile before I get a Switch 2, though I doubt they'd announce it without a heavy hitter to go along with it.

@VoidofLight Not a lot of big titles in the first 2 years? Let's see, we had:
Splatoon 2
Xenoblade Chronicles 2
Super Mario Odyssey
Kirby Star Allies
Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

And that's only including original titles, not Wii U ports like BotW and MK8D which would also be considered "huge" titles. That's pretty big (and really if you include first 3 years it looks far better because 2019 saw Yoshi's Crafted World, Mario Maker 2, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Pokemon Sword/Shield). I think it's reasonable to expect 5 or 6 big titles in the first year to drive momentum and at least another 2 or 3 Year 2.

Additionally, looking at past patterns in terms of when these IPs last released, it's reasonable to expect the IPs I mentioned to get new ones soon. Many of these IPs have not had new entries in 3+ years and their developers haven't been doing much lately (a few of them might've been working on DLC or smaller entries lately to maybe push some of them into Year 2 or 3, but in general short of a delay I think there's a very good chance we see those IPs in that timeframe). I fail to see how what I mentioned is expecting something radically more and different from what we got with the Switch. The Switch actually had a fairly strong push its first few years, especially Years 1 and 3.

2017 was about as good a year from a first party game perspective that I can remember. They'd do well to try to replicate something similar with the Switch's successor. Nothing sells a system quite like actually having good games to play on it.

Pyoro has teased 4 announcements from the Partner Showcase so far:

Nothing from Microsoft? I guess that's not exactly a prediction that would mark you apart from the mere guessers at this point.

Level 5 also had a new Professor Layton game in the works. It's not slated to release until 2025 but that's quite possibly before the Switch 2 launch now. Fantasy Life sounds more plausible though, given that it's already been pushed back from last year.

@Matt_Barber Perhaps not, but Pyoro seems to be fairly selective about the information he shares. He didn't make note of Shantae Advance being in the November 2023 Indie World - just Outer Wilds, despite it also being a reasonably notable announcement. Additionally, the Game Freak tease is the only one he's made that isn't just him liking a comment or replying to someone asking about a certain game, and it's hard to say if his silence on certain things means anything. After he liked the reply asking about Level-5, people began to ask what game of theirs would show up, and he hasn't done anything to indicate who's guessed correctly. I would certainly hope we at least see one of Microsoft's announcements, especially because Hi-Fi Rush has been rumored for Q1 2024 on PS5 and Switch.

@PikaPhantom I looked away before I got a good look at what you posted but if its coming from The Bird™, you might want to put spoiler tags over it just in case certain people don't want to see what they're saying 😅