Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@Euler Nintendo themselves have said that they waited too long to release a Wii successor, as by the time Wii U launched HD TVs were widely adopted and people had long moved on to the 360/PS3 (and awaiting the XB1/PS4) or away from video games as a whole and they had lost all momentum they had with Wii.

Had they released a Wii HD in 2010 alongside Super Mario Galaxy 2 and DKC Returns with Skyward Sword in the launch year? Might not have been a smashing hit but certainly would have done better than Wii U did.

Point is that you can't wait until you lose all momentum to release new hardware for the sake of milking software sales off the current hardware as people will have moved on to other options. They must strike while the iron is still hot.

@IceClimbers
Much agreement

And yeah, I'm not sure if a "Wii HD" would have been dramatically different to Wii U. But I doubt it could have been worse and at the time it was painfully obvious they were falling off a cliff. Nintendo didn't have a product for the HDTVs everyone was buying. They definitely lost some revenue in that period by being too late with the HD transition

I mean, outside of Just Dance how many Wii games were million sellers after mid 2010? DKCR, Skyward Sword, Mario Party 9.... then like Skylanders and Lego Harry Potter

I actually agree with what @Euler was saying there, you don't release new hardware when every title you release is moving millions. That's precisely why the Wii U was far too late for a HD console from Nintendo. The Wii was past that point already, consumer sentiment had shifted, people wanted a more traditional and HD capable console

To some extent the same kind of sentiment is happening for Switch. And those same pressures are why now is the time for Switch 2. People are slowly starting to want post-HD resolutions, HDR, PS4 tier portables. I don't think Metroid Prime 4 will break 5mill if it's Switch only, at this stage I doubt Wind Waker HD outsells Skyward Sword HD

I realize this has nothing to do with your point, but no metroid release has ever gotten particularly close to 5 million. If Nintendo does manage to pull that off, that would be a huge win for the series. I don't know if the data is 100% accurate, but sales numbers appear to be less than 2 million for Prime remastered and less than 4 million for Metroid Dread, the best selling game in the series. I love Metroid (though not Prime because it makes me motion sick), but Metroid has always been a bit niche at least in terms of being one of Nintendo's main IPs. Not quite in Nintendo's top 20 IPs, it's one of those series where lots of people have heard of it, but outside communities like this, not that many people have actually played much of it. It would be neat if Nintendo does manage to make it more popular though. I agree that if it only comes out on Switch 1 with Switch 1 graphics, it will remain a medium seller at best even if it wins awards.

@FishyS
All good points and of course this is all entirely hypothetical alternate-universe stuff. Although, alternate universe or not, we kinda have some precedent here. Tears of the Kingdom is probably going to land at ~2/3rds of BotW's sales, Skyward Sword did about half of Twilight Princess' sales, Majora's Mask 3D was just over half of Ocarina of Time 3D's sales. Super Mario Galaxy sold a tad less than twice as many copies as 2. A pretty clear pattern there

My gut feeling is that, all things being equal and assuming the quality is AAA tier, if Metroid Prime 4 had launched in 2019 or something I think it breaks 5mill. If they launch it as a straight up Switch game right now with no Switch 2 in sight? I'm not sure it gets past 2.5mill. But as a Switch 2 launch game? It's a becomes a bit of the head eating the tail. It would sell Switch 2 as much as the Switch 2 launch window sells it. Probably breaks 5mill again

Same is probably true of new 3D Mario or whatever else Nintendo might be cooking up

If any Metroid game is gonna break 5 million, it's gonna be Prime 4. At this point, even as a non-Metroid gamer myself, Prime 4 has taken on this hype and mystique even for me and I can't quite explain it. It's simply due to the incredible amount of excitement and chatter from people who have actually played the Prime games (I did play Prime Remastered when it came out and enjoyed it, but it's not totally my jam).

The success of the Prime remaster, generally revered as one of 2023's best games, alongside the impact of Dread should mean that the appetite for Prime 4 is even greater than ever. Not to mention the 'impending' ports of Prime 2 & 3 (reportedly still on the burner, but not lost)

I wonder if Nintendo goes all-in on a Switch2/Prime4 direct? Announce release date of Switch 2, with Prime 4 being the 'flagship' launch title.... and in the meantime, they announce a quick shadow drop of Prime 2 and 3 (on original Switch) to whet the appetites of consumers even more.

Given this is where I've taken the discussion I should probably point out that I'm kinda in the same boat as @FishyS with the Prime games. Personally. I love the idea of Metroid Prime, I love Metroid, Dread is comfortably one of my favourite games on Switch. I got 3 when it launched on Wii and played the hell out if it, I downloaded the Trilogy on Wii U, I picked up remastered. I also recognise that they're generally quality titles.....

........ but I generally struggle with that kind of FPS. That kind of exploratory corridor style gameplay. I just can't play them for any length of time before I feel physically sick. Not all FPS games oddly, a lot I'm fine with. If they're a bit more open or a bit more vibrant I'm fine. If they're competitive style titles and you can get a bit of a handle on the map I'm also fine. I can also be fine if it's very linear and incredibly obvious where you are and where you're going. Also, I tend to be a bit better on PC with a KB + Mouse for some reason

But Metroid is very much NOT that sort of game so.... Prime is particularly well placed to be nausea city for me. I'm sure I'll end up getting Prime 4 when it comes out. It'll be a milestone release whenever it comes out and wherever it lands. But with all honesty I can't say I'm jumping up and down in anticipation for it

If Prime 4 ends up being the launch title, I’m not getting the next system at launch. Not really a fan of Metroid at all.

I see the short term win of slapping Prime 4 as a launch title, but Nintendo think much more longer term. Nothing wrong in honouring the announcement (I mean they do need to still support Switch lol) and then 'remaster' it a couple of years down the line. Or maybe it will simply upscale on the new system. That appeases everyone. Besides, there are better launch titles for a system than Metroid and we don't know their roadmap for it. But, I think by now, they don't announce a new console without at the bare minimum announcing Mario, Zelda and their karts will be there soon.

I think Prime 4 being a Switch 2 launch title benefits Switch 2 more than it does Prime 4 because Prime 4 by itself isn't a suitable launch lineup but turning the situation into a suitable launch lineup would mean Prime 4 gets overshadowed by something like 3D Mario.

Prime 4 would benefit the most from releasing in a quiet spot in the current Switch era so the focus can be on that game. Kind of like how Splatoon had Summer 2015 pretty much all to itself after launching in late May.

In terms of launch titles, I feel like 3D Mario definitely sells the console if it is exclusive to Switch 2, but Mario also isn't a great example of improved performance/graphics. We're already used to Mario looking beautiful and running well with Wonder/Odyssey. Even if more complicated things are happening in hardware behind the cartoon-y Mario style, I'm not sure most players would appreciate that subtlety. Prime 4 I could imagine being a more 'obvious' example of what Nintendo could do by optimizing a game for better hardware. I think Nintendo could use at least one first party 'wow, that runs on Nintendo hardware' kind of game for early Switch 2.

I think Metroid Prime would be the most suitable title to showcase HDR. You've got the dead black of space next to the searing brightness of blaster fire. Plus it's a game with a reputation of pushing visuals so it'd be very easy to sell that story

Prime 4 as a cross platform launch, new Mario as Switch 2 exclusive in the launch window

I'm still of the belief Prime 4 isn't releasing for 10 years, if ever honestly. We'll have to wait and see, but given how Nintendo hasn't really talked about the game in a while, I feel like it's probably in dev hell. Especially given how many updates they gave when TotK was delayed and in development.

@VoidofLight Prime 4 and Silksong are both definitely coming out in the next 0-10 years. Maybe. 😝

The only reason I think Prime 4 is a launch game is because it's basically the only game we know about from Nintendo more broadly that's not a first half of 2024 Switch title. And most of those titles are ports/remasters. With Prime 4 and Retro more generally, it's been a good while. Surely they have something by now. So it's a fairly safe bet. Especially compared to the alternate predictions which basically just involve randomly throwing darts at a poster of Nintendo IPs

But then again, the stuff that was reported by Did You Know Gaming in the last year RE Retro around the post-Prime 3 period? I think the caution from some is fair. It doesn't sound like a particularly healthy culture over there, at least based on what has been said by the people no-longer involved. They don't paint a particularly flattering picture. And Prime 4 did already get the reset button once

But then again, the remaster of Prime was a solid effort so..... who knows....

@Wolfleaf Funnily enough, depending on how my journey through the Trilogy on Wii goes, I might be doing exactly that in a couple months time XD

I have full faith that MP4's gonna turn out a banger though. We've already seen what Retro can do in regards to Prime on Switch with MP1 Remastered and if a remaster of a 20-year-old game can look/be THIS good on a system that is, for all intents and purposes, a suped-up iPad?

yeah they're absolutely going to make MP4 worth the long, long, LONG wait XD

@skywake LM2 and TTYD do have release windows that could be 2nd half of 2024 (Summer 2024 and 2024 respectively). I do think both will be 1st half given age ratings started appearing last month but the release date announcements would be either in the next Direct or a social media post if there is no early in the year Direct.

I don't think it'll happen this way but there's technically nothing stopping Nintendo from doing a general Direct only for the current Switch in the usual February slot, announce a load of unannounced stuff in it and end the Direct with Prime 4 such that people massively question if there actually is new hardware this year.

Eh, we kinda thought the same( developement hell) for Bayonetta 3 and "botw2" which came to be totk. We went a good while on both games without hearing much. Developement could be fine and nintendo's just waiting for the right moment to kick it into high gear aka, the next console or later this year. I guess we'll just wait and see.

@NintendoByNature Ehhh, the difference is that TotK had updates almost every year where Aonuma spoke to us about how the game was still in development, whilst giving some glimpses of it. As for Bayonetta 3, yeah this is a similar situation. The only thing is that Metroid Prime 4 basically got revealed before Bayonetta 3 I think, and then restarted development. Even then, its been long enough for us to already know more info.. but Nintendo won't tell us anything about the game's current status.

I mean, Nintendo does tend to avoid showing stuff until they're ready to push it out the door lately. The Super Mario RPG remake was released only a few months after it was announced. Super Mario Wonder was the same. Dread was similar. Hell, the Switch OLED was similar

I mean we mention TotK here but it's a bit of an outlier here. It's pretty much the only game Nintendo has released in the last few years where they had shown gameplay more than a year before launch. But even then, the first reveal of TotK wasn't gameplay. The first trailer with actual gameplay was 2021, 2 years after the initial reveal. And at that point the intent was to release in 2022

So yeah, I'm not sure Nintendo being quiet on Prime 4 really says anything much at all. Nintendo more or less do the same thing for all their games. It just happens that Prime 4 is the only game they announced early during their "hype up the Switch" period