Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

Okay, ty.

I mean, fundamentally this nonsense argument comes down to some kind of revisionism for the Wii U. Some crazy belief that Nintendo would've been better off if they had delayed the Wii U even longer. Because, supposedly, launching the Wii U when it did just sucked sales away from the Wii which was doing fantastically well at the time just like the Switch is now.

The Wii sales decline from 24mill in 2008 down to 5mill in 2012? That was all Wii U man, they would've kept selling 15-20mill all the way through to 2015 if they hadn't released the Wii U. Never mind that they had dropped to 11mill in 2011, that was all because the Wii U had been announced at E3 that year. People just didn't want "better graphics", which is why the Wii was overtaken by both the 360 and PS3 in 2011 and the Wii U was immediately blown away by the PS4 and XBOne

The fact that the Switch for 2023 is probably down another ~5mill and has been consistently down by about 5mill every year since its peak in 2020? I mean, that's just because COVID sales were high yeah? Has nothing to do with devices like the Steam Deck moving an insignificant 4mill units in one year. Or other devices like the ROG Ally existing. PS5 sales being up something like 40% over last year? Come on, that doesn't matter. Everyone knows that any level of fidelity above the Switch is just wasted

What Nintendo really needs to do here is learn the lessons from the Wii U. When your sales are down and people are migrating to other consoles with better visuals? When the market is starting to pull back on your product. Do nothing..... do nothing and your next product can't possibly fail

@skywake I feel like people who believe the Wii U was too early are just revising history in order to help argue why they personally don't want another console at the moment. A lot of the people who tend to use that argument also tend to be those who are unhappy with the prospect of having to purchase a new system when it drops.

@VoidofLight
I know the argument well. I remember saying similar things about the Wii U of all consoles around 2015. I was convinced that BotW would be Wii U only and not cross generation. That wasn't an argument I made out of some kind of rational observation of the market. I was making an emotive argument based on the fact that I was trying to justify having been an early adopter of the Wii U

People saying there shouldn't be a Switch 2 are, without question, doing the same thing here. And they're as wrong about the Switch 2 as I was about NX.... well, kinda. My argument was that NX was a 3DS successor and, in a way, I kinda nailed that one

Yeah people I guess forget that Wii fell off a cliff after 2010. Which granted is partially Nintendo's fault, because they had nothing going on between February and October (and those two games were Mario Sports Mix and the less popular and far less hyped Wii Kirby game).

I think the point of the Wii U needing to come out later is more that the Wii U needed more major games more quickly, because it also had a massive lack of much of anything after launch until August, and that wasn't gonna happen if it was coming out in 2012. I dunno if that would've made a difference, but I can't imagine it wouldn't have at least done better than it did. Maybe they would've finally figured out the marketing in time too, who knows?

I also won't disagree from a sales perspective about more powerful consoles to sell to keep up a company's momentum but in terms of actual games, how many popular PS5 games aren't also on Ps4 3 years in? It feels like PS5 sold partially out of the assumption you need to buy the next console more than the reality of actually needing the next console to play a good enough version of these games(I'd bet very few of those PS4 versions of post-PS5 era AAA games have even close to PS4 to Switch port level issues, and some of those ports are also pretty solid anyway).

I don't think all that many people bought PS5 to get slightly better running versions of games. In 2020 they may have bought it on the assumption they would need it. But now? Spider Man 2, Final Fantasy 16, FF7 remake, Baldur's Gate 3 , God of Ragnarok, etc. are on PS5 but not PS4. You would basically be missing all the most popular PS games and a chunk of popular third party games if you only had PS4. I assume the same thing will happen with Switch 2. It will be a more immediate upgrade in terms of some third party games being possible to port, but most people will buy it for the Switch 2 exclusives which trickle in at first but eventually are an avalanche some years in.

Ever since I've gotten a gaming PC, I've been touching my PS5 less and less. The console really doesn't have many exclusives that make it worth keeping around honestly. I know that not many people can afford PCs that run games on the same level of a PS5, if not greater.. but it feels like whatever is exclusive to PS5 basically just doesn't stay exclusive. I only really keep the console around so that I can plug my controller into my PC.

@kkslider5552000
With that Wii -> Wii U transition, without question the fact that Nintendo was slow to ramp up software support was an issue. And I guess when people look back at the Wii U they see a rushed console. Like you said, maybe that's where people get this idea that the Wii U wasn't ready for launch. And they're not wrong. But just because Nintendo wasn't ready for a HD console launch doesn't mean the market wasn't

With 20:20 hindsight Nintendo should have released a HD console earlier than they did. I have no doubts in my mind that would've been the better move. Maybe they hold back on Wii Motion Plus so they can launch improved motion controls alongside their new HD console. Make that part of the hook instead of the second screen concept and launch at a price that was competitive with PS3/360. I mean.... it couldn't have been worse than what they actually did. The second screen gamble didn't pay off and the HD transition happened WAY quicker than Nintendo were prepared for, those were the two key mistakes of the Wii U

In terms of the bit about the PS5? I mean sure, I kinda agree. But the PS4 is discontinued so the PS5 is the console people are going to buy. And you can't really fault Sony for upgrading the spec of their product rather than continuing to sell 10 year old hardware. As it stands from what I can see PS5 is basically half of all console hardware sales ATM, Switch is ~30% and XBox Series is the remaining ~15%. Give or take. Like it or not that's what the market is buying given the options available

Also when we're talking about Nintendo releasing new hardware we're not really talking about going from PS4 to PS5 spec. We're more talking about going from a spec that's PS3 adjacent to maybe something that's slightly sub PS4 Pro. And lets be honest with ourselves, the Switch being underpowered and having ports that just barely get over the line..... we're not talking about the Digital Foundry pixel counting crowd here. We're talking super-normie tier gamer small talk here. The Switch being "underpowered" is something EVERYONE is aware of. I'd argue it's a non-trivial factor that would be giving normies as the local EBGames pause when deciding what console to buy little Jimmy for their Birthday

@VoidofLight @skywake To be fair delaying the Wii U would've fixed the Wii U's biggest problem, the gigantic 1st party droughts early on in the system's lifespan. Sony and Microsoft easily got away with releasing like 2 games a year at times in the PS4/XB1 era onwards because people generally buy Playstation and Xbox hardware for the big multiplatform games like CoD, Fortnite, GTA, FIFA/EA Sports FC, etc. but that doesn't work for Nintendo because people tend to buy Nintendo hardware for Nintendo games with 3rd party support being a bonus.

I do think that @skywake's idea about making late Wii era games be launch window games for the Wii U instead would've been more successful though. XB1 was irrelevant for awhile because Don Mattrick killed the Xbox brand's popularity but Sony did purposely time aggressive PS4 discounts with whenever Wii U had a big 1st party release incoming from 2014 onwards so releasing later would've had further problems with this.

I'd expect Switch to have more stamina than Wii though, fwiw. A four year old kid in my extended family asked for a Switch for Christmas, both their siblings have one already. Wiis were bought for households, Switches are increasingly being bought for individuals, as per other handhelds.

@gcunit
That's very True, my sister just got her youngest a Switch (the 3RD one in the Household) so its very much still wanted to this day.

@gcunit
Fair call, there's some truth to that. I feel like the Switch is selling to three different markets all at once. There's the enthusiast portable market, the "kids portable" market and the traditional home console market. They're being squeezed a bit on two of those fronts

As a home console they've always had to lean on Nintendo's IP to counter-balance their weaker and generally lower value raw hardware. They can put up a fight but ultimately it's a battle they'll never win. Non-portable hardware will just always beat hardware that can be portable in a price-to-performance battle. Multi-platform titles will always run worst on the weakest hardware. Great IP allows them to punch above their weight but... they're fundamentally outmatched and every year that goes by without a spec bump they fall further behind

As an enthusiast portable device? In theory they can win this battle comfortably. When the Switch launched it was THE enthusiast portable device. More than any other product in the history of portable devices. Switch at launch was what Sega failed to be with the GameGear, what Sony failed to be with the Vita. They're starting to fall behind now but it wouldn't take much for them to re-claim this crown. Especially with a more power efficient design and with content optimised specifically for their hardware, something which isn't true of devices like the Steam Deck

But as a kids portable? The Switch Lite has no competition. It owns that space. The closest competition the Switch Lite has are portable emulation devices and hand-me-down smartphones. Could it be better? I mean sure. Could it be even cheaper? Also yes. But it's already without equal

So when I say Nintendo needs new hardware soon? It's not for the "kids portable" market. It's for the other two markets where they can either close the gap (home console) or re-take the crown (enthusiast portable). The Switch is more than just a GameBoy, it's a hybrid console, it serves more than one market

@skywake There's absolutely some truth to what you're saying. I think the need for new hardware kind of stems from the multiple markets that Nintendo's used to running in. The Switch has done so, so well because families are buying multiple ones compared to something like a Wii. On top of that, the current Switch is totally falling behind on both fronts you mentioned. The quality of new third-party ports is laughable at times. Nintendo needs something closer to keep the people who use it as a home console and want to play their favorite games on the go.

All I want is a Nintendo Direct on my birthday in February! I don't care what's announced lol

Actually on your birthday? 😆 I mean, there will presumably be one in early February, but getting the exact day is asking a lot. Good luck though.

It came to mind that Splatoon 3 may hint at more specific timing of the next Direct. Looking at post-launch Directs:

• September 2022 - Splatfest
• February 2023 - DLC
• June 2023 - Splatfest
• September 2023 - DLC

If the pattern continues, the next Direct will reveal February's Splatfest theme. Splatfests get announced at least 2 weeks in advance because of Sneak Peek lasting for a week and February's Splatfest timing is likely 16th - 18th /17th - 19th (time zones) when comparing to the previous year which would suggest February 1st is the latest the Direct could be if it had Splatfest announcement.

@skywake Quite the contrary, I don't entirely ignore others' posts and I read all of the important parts. Case in point, you predicted that the Switch Pro would be released in 2021 (wrong) and that the Wii U would've been a smashing hit if only it had come out in 2010 with Skyward Sword as its launch title (one of the worst-selling 3D Zeldas; recall that the rehash, released during the Switch's prime, did even worse than the Link's Awakening rehash). This is in spite of the fact the Wii was very much alive in late 2011 (Just Dance 3 sold 10 million) and had room for the likes of New Super Mario Bros. U, Super Mario 3D World, etc. A new console for the sake of a new console was a mistake.

As for declining hardware sales, while the Switch really isn't doing too badly (it has a chance of catching the DS and PS2), they're largely irrelevant. There's a ceiling for how many people are interested in a given console, so there comes a point when everyone that wants a Switch already has one. But hardware makes up a very small percentage of Nintendo's profits, as the margin per console is not very much. Software, which has much lower manufacturing costs (zero for digital games), is their bread and butter. When you have lightning in a bottle (130,000,000 Switch users and counting) and every new game will automatically move 15,000,000 copies, it makes sense to continue making games for that system as long as possible. Which is why every Switch 2 prediction so far has been wrong.

@Euler
Hrm... I don't disagree with most of what you're saying, honestly, but my question is: If the Switch 2 is really just a juiced-up Switch by and large, well then why not release it in 2024? Especially if there will be a year or two where many games will work on either system, just like how Sony and Microsoft played their most recent transitions.

It would be a great way to sort of wean people off the original Switch and onto the new hardware over the course of a couple years, and I'm sure tons of indies (which do really well on the Switch) will remain playable on both for a very long time.

Anyway, the only thing I think you haven't adequately addressed is the very obviously lean release schedule for the Switch. Now, I actually think the upcoming first-party stuff looks really good, but you can't deny there just isn't any bait out there for bigger stuff like we usually have. It's kind of like last call has gone out at the bar, and the beer isn't any worse, it's just very clear there isn't any more coming after this round.

So you basically cherrypick then.

@Euler
Software sales have also peaked and if you were even a little bit self aware you would realise your point about Skyward Sword doesn't really help your new angle here. Yes, Skyward Sword was a game that got a fair bit of resistance from the gaming community. It didn't sell particularly well. But it's also a game that launched on the Wii at a time when we were past peak motion controls and people were migrating to HD consoles. People had decided they weren't interested before it had even released. It was motion controls and SD graphics, why do we want that? If it had been a HD release instead it would have been the first HD Zelda. Perceptions would have been very different

Also, I think you misunderstand what I'm actually saying here. New hardware does not necessarily mean they hard drop support for the old platform. You cited Just Dance, those games were still coming out and selling well on Wii deep into the 2010s. Wii U didn't stop that train, Wii HD wouldn't have either. Switch was as much of a 3DS successor as it was Wii U but there were still Metroids and Pokemans coming out on 3DS after launch. New hardware does not mean that install base evaporates. Assuming decent and transparent backwards compatibility there's no reason why Switch 2 couldn't release this year and something like a Switch Sports Resort couldn't come out as a straight up Switch game in 2025

The fact is, the Switch hardware spec is increasingly a drain on software sales. That's the primary problem. People increasingly don't want to invest in this platform, they're going to Steam or PlayStation. The secondary problem, hardware sales, is simply a reflection of that same fact. Hardware is a bigger investment and is a bit more forward looking. It always falls first. Software always follows

Also note, again, I'm not some doom Sayer. I want the Switch to continue to do well and I have the receipts to prove it. Litterally. I bought an OLED yesterday because my launch Switch has seen better days. It's in my interest for Switch to be the primary focus of Nintendo for a while yet. The thing is, unlike some here, I'm not here trying to justify purchases or fight in the trenches in some kind of console war

I just see what's essentially a 10 year old tablet device being sold for $500AU. Then I think that maybe Nintendo could be selling a better value hardware product here. Or I see people like my Niece treating herself to a PS5 specifically to play Hogwarts Legacy because the Switch version was late and was going to be inferior. And I think that that's a lost sale right there. I scroll through the sales on the eShop and eventually tire of that 3s gap when loading the next page of items. Then I think how many software sales have they lost because this CPU is struggling with what is essentially a web page?

And yes, I thought a Switch Pro made sense. I still think it made sense. Frankly I think there was enough smoke there that it was a thing. Hell, maybe in 10 years some Nintendo dev does a talk at GDC and shows the thing in the same way they that they just casually confirmed GBA was planned for '99 before Pokemon, WonderSwan and the GBC. Who knows

And to be blunt, setting up my OLED over the last couple of days..... I'm, if anything, even more convinced that Pro was a thing and most certainly would have been a good move. This hardware has no right having a screen this good without the ability to do HDR. They even updated the dock so it uses a newer spec HDMI adaptor. I sit back playing Mario Kart 8 on my OLED TV or in bed in the morning and think.... This entire chain is capable of 4K/60 docked or 720p/90 in both cases with HDR. The entire chain..... except the SoC itself. It's an odd little device. I'm not entirely convinced this was the original plan