@I-U@Dezzy Metroid comes across as a very niche series for Nintendo, so weak sales'll be closer to inevitability than record double-digit numbers. As I said a few weeks back Nintendo should port Prime Trilogy to acquaint new players with the series. It'll bolster Prime 4's sales with minimal effort and will get more people invested in the series to secure its short term future. I doubt this is truly the case but I suspect Prime 4 is the Fire Emblem: Awakening, for Metroid. If it doesn't perform well it gives Nintendo and Retro less incentive to make them.
It would be nice if Prime Trilogy got a HD port to the Switch. There have been plenty of rumors about the release existing, but nothing has materialized from Nintendo. I would love to see that this year as Prime 4 would likely follow close behind, between 6-12 months after. Prime 4 does feel like it needs to be a relative big hit compared to previous Metroid games for the series to continue or return to being a regular part of Nintendo's success and not slip into longer gaps/hiatus between new releases. It does seem like they are very invested in Prime 4, willing to be transparent about its development in 2019 and willing to give it another go under Retro Studios, so if it does turn out to be a great game it really should be a sales success.
"The secret to ultimate power lies in the Alimbic Cluster."
Nintendo wants to release it close to a feasible release window of Metroid Prime 4.
That's an odd way to look at it, if they release it too close together then there's a risk of the two games eating other sales so it would probably need a year gap to prevent it that. Given that you can probably assume MP4 is at least a year away and probably more since Trilogy is no where in sight for release.
@I-U Yeah, definitely think if Prime Trilogy Switch happens it would be closer to Prime 4's release. As good as it was getting Bayonetta 1+2 so early on in the Switch's lifespan, I think Bayonetta 3's sales would be better if the Bayonetta 1+2 port released around 2020/2021 instead.
@Grumblevolcano I don't get me wrong I like Bayonetta however it's even less of a seller than Metroid is. I feel Bayonetta 3 sales are gonna disappoint folk expecting to be big regardless of port timing, Smash, marketing, it being on a kiddie console or any other excuses people will make.
@Slowdive About Zelda, it seemed to me it was the opposite. They had to upfront say it's not BOTW 2 before showing off Skayward Sword to avoid upsetting people.
@jump It's quite horrible that Nintendo, a notoriously secretive company, has had to warn people every single time they announce a new Smash fighter; that no other fighters would be revealed.
@Grumblevolcano I don't get me wrong I like Bayonetta however it's even less of a seller than Metroid is. I feel Bayonetta 3 sales are gonna disappoint folk expecting to be big regardless of port timing, Smash, marketing, it being on a kiddie console or any other excuses people will make.
I'm not convinced there will be a big difference between the 2. Metroid has never really sold that well either. Maybe it will have that moment that Zelda, Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem have had in recent years, where they just massively break out of the historical sales trends, and the skies are the limit, but I wouldn't put money on it.
@Dezzy Metroid Prime sold nearly 3 million. I don't think it's out of the question for Dread to reach those numbers again, but I don't see Bayo getting that high. Bayonetta miiight break 2 mil at an absolute, but Dread definitely has the potential to break 3. I suspect Dread's sales will end up around 2-3x that of Bayonetta 3, enough to break historical records while still not breaking the 4 mil mark.
My current predictions, which I shouldn't really be making because we've only seen one of these games, but never mind:
Metroid Dread- 3 million
Bayonetta 3 - 2.5 million
Metroid Prime 4 - 4 million
I do think they will all benefit from the Switch boost that a lot of other series have been getting. Zelda, 3D Mario, Animal Crossing, Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, Splatoon, all have their best selling entry on the Switch. So I think it's reasonable to assume the same will happen with Metroid and Bayonetta too!
@link3710@Dezzy I think you're really underestimating the Metroid games. I think Dredd will go over 5m, 3D World sold 5.6m copies in 2 months, Links Awakening has sold 5.5m in 18 months.
I think Prime 4 could go over 10m depending on a number of factors, such as if it has online play etc. Splatoon 2 has sold over 12m copies.
In general 2D Metroid sells better than 3D Metroid but I'd guess both get around 3-4 million. 2D Metroid has more competition this time with a whole genre a lot more prominent since Fusion (Metroidvania) meanwhile 3D Metroid has less competition (e.g. while Infinite may bring Halo back to the spotlight, the Halo franchise is not as big as it used to be around the time the previous Metroid Prime games released).
@Grumblevolcano I think it's hard to compare sales to previous devices. Metroid Fusion is the 23rd best selling GBA game (1.6m copies), the 23rd best selling Switch game is Mario Tennis Aces which has sold over 3m copies - almost double and the console is still going.
Animal Crossing New Horizons will outsell the rest of the franchise combined.
Links Awakening on the Gameboy sold 3.8m copies and was included in some hardware bundles, Links Awakening on the Switch has already sold 5.5m copies.
The NES didn't have a single game sell over 10m copies which wasn't part of a hardware bundle (Super Mario 1, 3 and Duck Hunt), whilst the Switch already has 11 games which are over 10m.
Another example would be Luigi's Mansion, it sold 3m copies on the Gamecube, Luigi's Mansion 3 is already at almost 10m copies on the Switch.
@MarioBrickLayer 5 mil is totally possible, yeah. But it's definitely nowhere near a safe bet.
...personally, I'll go out on a limb and say that Dread will sell 5.8 mil lifetime. But that's just my gut talking, the facts don't suggest that's the most likely outcome.
Prime 4 is likely to hit 4 mil, but I do think it'll sell less just due to being in 3D. 2D games just sell better.
I hope they do something about missable scans in this game, that's one of the most irritating things about the Prime games. Searching every nook and cranny of the game to find that some obscure form of a boss that you didn't recognize as a separate scan or some creature or device that disappears after that point isn't a fun way to get you to replay the game, it's just annoying. They should include a simulator of some sort to let you rematch bosses to get those scans, and make it so the rest of the scans don't disappear.
That's pretty much the reason why I never bother with the scans. Just make it so that whenever you defeat an enemy, or collect an item, you automatically get the scan entry. For overworld scans it's sorta okay, since you can always go back to those. Would be great if they stood out a little more regardless.
@Octane No, scans in and of themselves are fine, and it's a great way to add more content for 100% completion. And if they force them on you, it'll slow the game down too much. The problem is that some of them disappear forcing you to restart the entire game to get 100%, that's the part that needs to be fixed.
Despite being my favorite game, I've never gotten 100% scans in Prime 1 lol.
Not kidding, I watched someone play it on stream this year, I did not know the first miniboss could actually be scanned, and there's probably a couple more I never got ever.
Thank god they don't hide the secret ending behind scans.
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