Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@Grumblevolcano Yeah I was just incredibly hopeful because I really like the idea of remasters for both Driver games, though I don’t know how that would work in practice. I’m not sure we should expect GTA IV on any platform. Rockstar don’t port games to the Switch unless it’s also coming to other platforms. They aren’t porting GTA IV to other platforms because they got GTA VI coming out either this year or early next year.

@FragRed I see GTA4 as a similar situation to RDR1, a game that's not playable on PS4/PS5 because there's no PS3 backwards compatibility. Then as a result, the game gets ported to PS4/Switch 1.

It may not be this year because of GTA6 but I was trying to think of a good comparison.

@Grumblevolcano I see what you are saying. It’s one of those titles that was rumoured years back but nothing happened. I imagine it’s probably cancelled or indefinitely on hold due to the anger from the GTA trilogy.

@FishyS does the eShop weekly lineup thing happen today? I wonder if it’s less than last week since there’s potentially gonna be a Direct next week.

@PikminMarioKirby It’s Thursdays it happens I think

If we do get a Direct, if there is anything like a miracle port, all the Youtube morons will be wondering why it wasn't kept till Switch 2...

It's less than last week but it's not small; kind of average for recently. One weird eShop change though - for some reason in the recent releases tab on Switch you now can't scroll back more than a week... it was definitely not like that before, not even last week. So things are happening, but I have no real guess if they mean anything.

@FishyS Interesting, I wonder why they're doing it that way? I don't see any reason for it only to be one week...

@PikminMarioKirby Ignore my theories, it turns out the eShop was just mildly broken for half an hour and by total coincidence stopped loading at exactly one week back. Now it's back to normal.

@FishyS I wonder if that was just a one-off glitch or if it effected everyone? I don't see any maintenances upcoming as of now, so they probably aren't making changes to it.

This is the setup of general Direct timing when compared with close Splatoon 3 Splatfest/Big Run:

September 2022

• Pre-launch Splatfest - August 26th - 28th (Rock vs. Paper vs. Scissors)
• Direct - September 13th
• Splatfest - September 23th - 25th (Gear vs. Grub vs. Fun)

February 2023

• Direct - February 8th
• Splatfest - February 10th - 12th (Dark Chocolate vs. Milk Chocolate vs. White Chocolate)

June 2023

• Big Run - June 7th - 9th
• Direct - June 21st
• Splatfest - July 14th - 16th (Vanilla vs. Strawberry vs. Mint Chip)

September 2023

• Big Run - September 1st - 3rd
• Splatfest - September 8th - 10th (Shiver vs. Frye vs. Big Man)
• Direct - September 14th

June 2024

• Big Big Run - June 7th - 9th
• Direct - June 18th
• Splatfest - July 12th - 14th (Palace vs. Theme Park vs. Beach)

If there's one this month the setup is:

• Splatfest repeat - February 7th - 9th (Dark Chocolate vs. Milk Chocolate vs. White Chocolate)
• Direct - ?
• Big Run repeat - Likely March 7th - 9th

The general trend is Direct up to 2 weeks after the Splatoon 3 event. While it could happen this week, there is still hope for next week if it doesn't happen this week.

It’s 1:30am my time and the craziest theory popped into my head: what if a reason for a usb c port being on top of switch 2 is so that it can be linked using a short cable to a switch 1 and, with help from a special holder accessory, be used as a huge DS with the switch 1 console as the top screen and full switch 2 with joy cons as the bottom?

This could explain the weird nso drop from last week because they’re actually saving the major nso news for the April direct (being DS games available exclusively on switch 2) and in the potential February one we’ll just get something like Smash Bros 64 with the “big deal” treatment like they did with Earthbound and Goldeneye.

I don’t know if that’s a really stupid idea to make such a major feature exclusive to those who own both consoles and I’m way too tired to research if it’s possible for a usb c cable to link 2 consoles like that, but one can dream 😅

welp, natethehate (who admittedly doesnt have a great track record, but accurately predicted the switch reveal) says he hasnt heard ANYTHING about a February direct. hope is slowly drifting away 😕😕😕
@ImGrenadeMan thats actually a rly clever idea! i dont know if nintendo wants to stray too far off the “normal” path though, also i think the whole idea of a new console is leaving the old behind, but maybe youll prove me wrong!!! 😸
also @Grumblevolcano is the best direct predictor out there, always super logical and reasonable! like when in doubt of a direct, i always read what they say 😹

@OctolingKing13 I am so tired of the cult following around that guy. He backtracks on his information so often, and gets things right once in a while and then the cycle starts once again. Similar with that Grubb guy. Grumblevolcano is always finding this random patterns that never pan out haha

@FreasurePlanten I'm not an insider, I'm just a random person who sees fun in finding patterns and predicting stuff from those patterns. It's only natural that I'd get plenty of stuff wrong.

I miss the days when insiders didn't run rampant. It was so exciting when Pyoro's credibility was decimated over the June 2024 Direct as it allowed for nice surprises in the general Direct itself and also the complete mystery surrounding Nintendo creating a M rated game with Emio (is it Nintendo's return to horror for the first time in decades?).

@Grumblevolcano But it is a mathematical fact that you can almost always find regularities if you look for them. Most of them are meaningless.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramsey_theory

@FreasurePlanten huh i mean i dont think its that serious but the random patterns are usually really well researched and reasonable by them😛

I mean... Nintendo organizes both of them and generally tries to make their own calendar make sense. They probably have a variety of internal scheduling restrictions. Does Nintendo try to align those two things? Probably not. Might there be various internal Nintendo calendar reasons why they happen to often align? Quite possibly. Do those internal hidden variables mean that one is a good predictor for the other? Possibly, possibly not; you would have to be an insider to know for sure or try to run the data long enough to decide it is random or not. That's the thing about statistical patterns; you can make a hypothesis based on prior data and then test that hypothesis based on future data.

That being said.... guessing things about when and what a future direct will be is literally the whole point of this thread. As Grumblevolcano said, finding potential patterns and predicting off of them is just one fun way to do that.

Although none of us here have a great overall track record, Grumblevolcano has been shockingly good at making NSO predictions based on patterns which is why some of us are interested in their ideas.

To your original point, I agree on the whole Nate cult being tiring. But it's also true he sometimes has insider knowledge. He normally says very vague things but he doubled and tripled down on the Switch 2 reveal date even though it was a day in January most people thought was very unlikely; clearly someone in the know told him when it would happen. For whatever reason people like to grab onto his every word even though he himself admits he only sometimes has insider knowledge. tbh, it's more fun to just look for silly patterns and guess for ourselves.

I mean making predictions is a large part of this Direct, as this is essentially speculation for the next Nintendo Direct. I personally really like seeing GrumbleVolcano's and others' make predictions based on patterns and assumed rules. Sure, we're predicting so we're not getting everything right, but sometimes the patterns actually do follow through. There are plenty of patterns that are most likely intentional from Nintendo's part, like February, June, and September being the general months for Directs, major twitter/youtube shadow reveals meaning there's probably Direct in given timeframe, Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday being the most likely days for general Directs, etc.

As for Splatfests, I agree with @FishyS that Nintendo tracks everything Nintendo does, so if they feel the need to not overlap these 2 things, they won't.